South Alabama

South AlabamaJaguars

4-4 T4th (2-2) in SBC

Data from 2026-11-02

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.9%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is South Alabama's probability of making the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game?

South Alabama has a 0.9% chance to reach the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. South Alabama's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

What does South Alabama need to do to reach the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game?

A perfect run to the end of the season puts South Alabama's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game odds at 11.6%.

What is the biggest game this week for South Alabama's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game odds?

South Alabama's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating Louisiana would put its Sun Belt Conference Championship Game odds at 4.4%, while a loss would drop them to <0.1%.

South AlabamaSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
vsSE LouisianaSELA
W39-14
29/12
@TulaneTULN
L24-28
39/19
vsOhioOHIO
W41-36
49/26
@KentuckyUK
L21-45
510/03
vsULMULM
W52-35
610/08
@Arkansas StARST
W56-49
810/20
@MarshallMRSH
L13-20
910/31
vsLouisiana TechLT
L20-35
1011/07
@LouisianaUL
Win prob:21%
1111/14
vsTroyTROY
Win prob:57%
1211/21
@Southern MissUSM
Win prob:53%
1311/27
vsAppalachian StAPP
Win prob:54%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

South AlabamaRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
6-2
3.4%
11.6%
5-3
21.3%
2.0%
4-4
39.2%
0.3%
3-5
28.7%
0%
2-6
7.4%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible South Alabama CCG Opponents

if South Alabama makes the CCG

JMUJames Madison
92.5%
GASOGa Southern
6.5%
CCUCoastal Car
1.1%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

South AlabamaThis Week's Impact

Game
South AlabamaCCG OddsAway Wins
South AlabamaCCG OddsHome Wins
Thu, Nov 5
James MadisonJMU@Southern MissUSM
0.9%
(+0.0%)		0.9%
(-0.0%)
Sat, Nov 7
Old DominionODU@Coastal CarCCU
0.9%
(-0.1%)		1.0%
(+0.0%)
Georgia StGAST@Appalachian StAPP
0.9%
(-0.0%)		1.0%
(+0.0%)
ULMULM@Arkansas StARST
0.8%
(-0.2%)		0.9%
(+0.0%)
MarshallMRSH@Ga SouthernGASO
0.9%
(-0.0%)		0.9%
(+0.0%)
Louisiana TechLT@TroyTROY
0.2%
(-0.7%)		2.4%
(+1.5%)
South AlabamaUSA@LouisianaUL
4.4%
(+3.5%)		0.0%
(-0.9%)

Best Winner Combination for South Alabama

TroyTroyJames MadisonJames MadisonAppalachian StApp StateMarshallMarshallArkansas StArkansas StateSouth AlabamaSouth AlabamaCoastal CarCoastal Carolina

CCG: 12.3% • Scenario: 0.4%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for South Alabama

South AlabamaSouth Alabama

CCG: 4.4% • Scenario: 21.1%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

South AlabamaLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
South Alabama CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
11.6%
3.4%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

South AlabamaCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%PreseasonWeek 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com