South AlabamaJaguars
0-0 T1st (0-0) in SBC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
9.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is South Alabama's probability of making the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game?
South Alabama has a 9.8% chance to reach the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. South Alabama's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:18% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:50% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:14% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:75% | ||
| 10/08 | Win prob:41% | ||
| 10/20 | Win prob:40% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:54% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:39% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:48% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:32% | ||
| 11/27 | Win prob:54% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.2% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 2.1% | 81.3% |
| 6-2 | 8.7% | 43.1% |
| 5-3 | 19.9% | 15.8% |
| 4-4 | 28.1% | 3.5% |
| 3-5 | 24.4% | 0.0% |
| 2-6 | 12.6% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 3.5% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
95.8%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
84.8%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.2%
<0.1%78.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%56.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
62.1%
2.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.6%
<0.1%82.6%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.1%
0.1%79.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%75.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.8%
0.1%72.5%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%72.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.7%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.3%
0.1%62.5%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%51.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%16.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.3%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
43.0%
6.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.6%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%89.2%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%86.8%
<0.1%86.5%
<0.1%86.0%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%83.9%
<0.1%83.8%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.6%
<0.1%82.3%
0.1%82.1%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.2%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%81.0%
0.2%80.5%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.3%
<0.1%75.5%
0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%72.7%
0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.2%
<0.1%65.6%
0.1%65.0%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.0%
0.2%61.7%
0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%52.5%
<0.1%52.2%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.1%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.8%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.9%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.0%
0.1%21.9%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.2%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.6%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.2%
<0.1%17.1%
<0.1%16.9%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.2%
<0.1%16.0%
0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.5%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.0%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.5%
<0.1%12.6%
0.1%12.5%
0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.1%
0.2%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.8%
0.2%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.5%
0.2%7.4%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%Data from 2026-08-26