South AlabamaJaguars
1-1 T1st (0-0) in SBC
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
13.2%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is South Alabama's probability of making the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game?
South Alabama has a 13.2% chance to reach the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. South Alabama's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | W39-14 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | L24-28 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:63% | |
| 4 | 9/26 | Win prob:11% | |
| 5 | 10/03 | Win prob:93% | |
| 6 | 10/08 | Win prob:44% | |
| 8 | 10/20 | Win prob:61% | |
| 9 | 10/31 | Win prob:53% | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:37% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:61% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:38% | |
| 13 | 11/27 | Win prob:44% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.5% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 4.0% | 78.7% |
| 6-2 | 13.9% | 39.1% |
| 5-3 | 25.9% | 13.0% |
| 4-4 | 28.6% | 2.6% |
| 3-5 | 18.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 7.0% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 1.3% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 13.2% (-0.1%) | 13.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 13.3% (+0.0%) | 13.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 13.3% (+0.1%) | 13.2% (-0.0%) | ||
| 13.1% (-0.1%) | 13.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 13.2% (-0.0%) | 13.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 13.2% (+0.0%) | 13.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 13.2% (-0.0%) | 13.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 13.3% (+0.1%) | 13.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 13.2% (+0.0%) | 13.2% (-0.0%) | ||
| 13.5% (+0.3%) | 13.2% (-0.0%) | ||
| 13.3% (+0.0%) | 13.2% (-0.0%) | ||
| 13.2% (-0.0%) | 13.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 13.3% (+0.0%) | 13.2% (-0.0%) | ||
| 13.2% (-0.0%) | 13.3% (+0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
89.7%
0.6%
100.0%
0.3%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
83.9%
<0.1%
79.6%
<0.1%
70.5%
<0.1%
66.9%
<0.1%
63.7%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
69.1%
3.5%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%87.7%
<0.1%85.8%
<0.1%83.6%
0.4%82.5%
<0.1%79.3%
<0.1%77.0%
0.2%75.6%
<0.1%75.6%
<0.1%74.4%
<0.1%72.5%
<0.1%71.3%
<0.1%69.8%
0.4%69.5%
<0.1%68.9%
<0.1%68.1%
<0.1%66.7%
0.5%64.0%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%60.9%
0.2%55.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%34.2%
<0.1%32.0%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%21.6%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%13.7%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.8%
0.1%7.0%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
41.9%
10.8%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%88.4%
<0.1%85.2%
<0.1%85.1%
0.2%84.4%
0.2%84.2%
<0.1%84.0%
0.5%82.8%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%77.9%
0.1%77.5%
0.2%76.2%
<0.1%75.8%
0.1%71.5%
<0.1%70.9%
<0.1%70.8%
0.3%70.1%
<0.1%70.0%
0.6%69.5%
<0.1%69.4%
<0.1%69.2%
0.3%68.9%
0.3%68.3%
0.6%67.5%
0.3%67.3%
<0.1%62.0%
0.2%61.6%
0.3%60.8%
0.1%59.8%
<0.1%57.8%
<0.1%54.6%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.8%
<0.1%46.3%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.3%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.7%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%34.8%
<0.1%34.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.4%
<0.1%30.7%
<0.1%28.2%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%23.0%
<0.1%17.5%
<0.1%16.2%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.5%
0.2%13.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.1%
0.6%12.0%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.2%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.9%
0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.7%
0.6%10.3%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.6%
<0.1%9.5%
0.3%9.3%
<0.1%9.2%
0.3%8.9%
<0.1%8.9%
0.3%8.8%
<0.1%8.4%
0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.3%
0.8%7.3%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.8%
0.4%6.7%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%6.2%
0.2%5.9%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.6%
0.4%4.9%
<0.1%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17