Old Dominion

Old DominionMonarchs

1-1 T1st (0-0) in SBC

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

10.5%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Old Dominion's probability of making the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game?

Old Dominion has a 10.5% chance to reach the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Old Dominion's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

Old DominionSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
vsNorfolk StateNORF
W31-10
29/12
@Virginia TechVT
L21-44
39/19
vsEast CarolinaECU
Win prob:49%
49/26
vsJames MadisonJMU
Win prob:35%
510/03
@Georgia StGAST
Win prob:49%
610/10
@Appalachian StAPP
Win prob:32%
710/15
vsGa SouthernGASO
Win prob:61%
810/24
@Louisiana TechLT
Win prob:41%
910/31
vsMarshallMRSH
Win prob:79%
1011/07
@Coastal CarCCU
Win prob:51%
1211/21
@UConnCONN
Win prob:54%
1311/28
vsSouthern MissUSM
Win prob:59%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Old DominionRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
0.3%
100.0%
7-1
2.9%
75.5%
6-2
11.0%
38.6%
5-3
23.0%
13.3%
4-4
28.7%
2.5%
3-5
21.8%
0.0%
2-6
9.8%
0%
1-7
2.3%
0%
0-8
0.2%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Old Dominion CCG Opponents

if Old Dominion makes the CCG

LTLouisiana Tech
23.6%
ULLouisiana
21.3%
USMSouthern Miss
21.2%
USASouth Alabama
12.8%
TROYTroy
11.1%
ARSTArkansas St
9.9%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Old DominionThis Week's Impact

Game
Old DominionCCG OddsAway Wins
Old DominionCCG OddsHome Wins
Sat, Sep 19
Coastal CarCCU@DelawareDEL
10.4%
(-0.1%)		10.5%
(+0.0%)
Louisiana TechLT@BaylorBAY
10.3%
(-0.1%)		10.5%
(+0.0%)
SE LouisianaSELA@ULMULM
10.5%
(+0.0%)		10.5%
(+0.0%)
CharlotteCLT@Appalachian StAPP
10.4%
(-0.0%)		10.5%
(+0.0%)
East CarolinaECU@Old DominionODU
10.5%
(+0.0%)		10.5%
(+0.0%)
MarshallMRSH@Missouri StMOST
10.5%
(+0.0%)		10.5%
(-0.0%)
Ga SouthernGASO@Jacksonville StJXST
10.5%
(+0.0%)		10.5%
(-0.0%)
Georgia StGAST@UCFUCF
10.5%
(-0.0%)		10.5%
(+0.0%)
OhioOHIO@South AlabamaUSA
10.4%
(-0.1%)		10.5%
(+0.0%)
TroyTROY@MissouriMIZ
10.8%
(+0.4%)		10.5%
(-0.0%)
UConnCONN@Southern MissUSM
10.5%
(+0.0%)		10.5%
(-0.0%)
Arkansas StARST@TCUTCU
10.4%
(-0.1%)		10.5%
(+0.0%)
UABUAB@LouisianaUL
10.6%
(+0.1%)		10.5%
(-0.0%)
James MadisonJMU@San Diego StSDSU
10.5%
(+0.1%)		10.4%
(-0.1%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Old DominionLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Old Dominion CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
80.2%
0.9%
Louisiana Tech
100.0%
0.1%
East Carolina
100.0%
<0.1%
UConn
100.0%
<0.1%
Southern Miss
100.0%
<0.1%
Marshall
98.1%
<0.1%
Coastal Car
92.0%
<0.1%
Georgia St
90.4%
<0.1%
Ga Southern
84.7%
<0.1%
Appalachian St
66.5%
0.2%
James Madison
33.9%
0.1%
Any 2 losses
51.6%
4.4%
Louisiana TechUConn
100.0%
0.1%
East CarolinaLouisiana Tech
100.0%
0.1%
Louisiana TechSouthern Miss
100.0%
<0.1%
Southern MissUConn
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaUConn
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaSouthern Miss
100.0%
<0.1%
MarshallSouthern Miss
98.9%
<0.1%
East CarolinaMarshall
98.0%
<0.1%
MarshallUConn
97.6%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechMarshall
97.4%
<0.1%
Coastal CarLouisiana Tech
92.6%
0.1%
Coastal CarSouthern Miss
92.6%
<0.1%
Coastal CarEast Carolina
92.0%
<0.1%
Georgia StLouisiana Tech
91.4%
0.1%
Georgia StSouthern Miss
91.3%
<0.1%
Georgia StUConn
90.8%
<0.1%
Coastal CarUConn
90.5%
<0.1%
East CarolinaGeorgia St
90.5%
<0.1%
East CarolinaGa Southern
84.3%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernSouthern Miss
83.1%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernUConn
82.1%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernLouisiana Tech
81.9%
<0.1%
Appalachian StSouthern Miss
69.4%
0.1%
Appalachian StLouisiana Tech
68.4%
0.3%
Appalachian StUConn
68.3%
0.1%
Appalachian StEast Carolina
64.3%
0.2%
Georgia StMarshall
46.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarMarshall
44.0%
<0.1%
James MadisonSouthern Miss
36.4%
0.1%
James MadisonLouisiana Tech
35.4%
0.2%
James MadisonUConn
34.4%
0.1%
East CarolinaJames Madison
34.1%
0.2%
Coastal CarGeorgia St
31.2%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernMarshall
27.2%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGa Southern
21.2%
<0.1%
Appalachian StMarshall
20.9%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernGeorgia St
19.4%
<0.1%
Appalachian StCoastal Car
12.9%
0.2%
Appalachian StGeorgia St
11.8%
0.2%
Appalachian StGa Southern
8.8%
0.1%
James MadisonMarshall
7.9%
<0.1%
Coastal CarJames Madison
6.5%
0.1%
Georgia StJames Madison
5.2%
0.2%
Ga SouthernJames Madison
3.8%
0.1%
Appalachian StJames Madison
1.5%
0.3%
Any 3 losses
33.9%
10.2%
Louisiana TechSouthern MissUConn
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaLouisiana TechUConn
100.0%
0.1%
East CarolinaLouisiana TechSouthern Miss
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaSouthern MissUConn
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaMarshallSouthern Miss
98.9%
<0.1%
East CarolinaLouisiana TechMarshall
98.4%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechMarshallSouthern Miss
98.0%
<0.1%
MarshallSouthern MissUConn
97.7%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechMarshallUConn
97.4%
<0.1%
East CarolinaMarshallUConn
96.7%
<0.1%
Coastal CarLouisiana TechSouthern Miss
93.8%
<0.1%
Coastal CarEast CarolinaLouisiana Tech
93.1%
0.1%
Coastal CarEast CarolinaSouthern Miss
93.1%
<0.1%
Coastal CarLouisiana TechUConn
92.8%
0.1%
Georgia StLouisiana TechSouthern Miss
92.8%
<0.1%
Georgia StSouthern MissUConn
92.3%
<0.1%
Coastal CarEast CarolinaUConn
91.7%
<0.1%
East CarolinaGeorgia StUConn
91.4%
<0.1%
Coastal CarSouthern MissUConn
91.3%
<0.1%
East CarolinaGeorgia StSouthern Miss
91.2%
<0.1%
East CarolinaGeorgia StLouisiana Tech
90.7%
0.1%
Georgia StLouisiana TechUConn
90.1%
0.1%
Ga SouthernSouthern MissUConn
88.8%
<0.1%
East CarolinaGa SouthernSouthern Miss
85.6%
<0.1%
East CarolinaGa SouthernUConn
85.5%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernLouisiana TechSouthern Miss
84.9%
<0.1%
East CarolinaGa SouthernLouisiana Tech
84.0%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernLouisiana TechUConn
82.3%
<0.1%
Appalachian StLouisiana TechUConn
68.9%
0.2%
Appalachian StEast CarolinaSouthern Miss
67.9%
0.1%
Appalachian StEast CarolinaLouisiana Tech
67.6%
0.3%
Appalachian StLouisiana TechSouthern Miss
67.2%
0.2%
Appalachian StSouthern MissUConn
66.4%
0.1%
Appalachian StEast CarolinaUConn
65.7%
0.2%
Georgia StMarshallSouthern Miss
48.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarLouisiana TechMarshall
44.2%
<0.1%
Georgia StMarshallUConn
43.6%
<0.1%
Coastal CarEast CarolinaMarshall
42.4%
<0.1%
Coastal CarMarshallUConn
40.1%
<0.1%
Coastal CarMarshallSouthern Miss
39.0%
<0.1%
Georgia StLouisiana TechMarshall
37.8%
<0.1%
James MadisonLouisiana TechSouthern Miss
37.6%
0.2%
East CarolinaJames MadisonSouthern Miss
37.0%
0.1%
East CarolinaJames MadisonLouisiana Tech
36.2%
0.2%
James MadisonLouisiana TechUConn
35.7%
0.2%
East CarolinaGeorgia StMarshall
35.1%
<0.1%
East CarolinaJames MadisonUConn
34.3%
0.1%
James MadisonSouthern MissUConn
33.4%
<0.1%
East CarolinaGa SouthernMarshall
30.6%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernMarshallSouthern Miss
29.9%
<0.1%
Coastal CarEast CarolinaGeorgia St
29.7%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGeorgia StLouisiana Tech
29.6%
0.1%
Coastal CarGeorgia StSouthern Miss
28.5%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGeorgia StUConn
28.0%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernMarshallUConn
27.0%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGa SouthernLouisiana Tech
24.8%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernGeorgia StLouisiana Tech
23.7%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernLouisiana TechMarshall
22.6%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGa SouthernUConn
21.8%
<0.1%
Coastal CarEast CarolinaGa Southern
21.0%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernGeorgia StSouthern Miss
20.5%
<0.1%
Appalachian StMarshallSouthern Miss
20.4%
<0.1%
Coastal CarGa SouthernSouthern Miss
20.4%
<0.1%
Appalachian StEast CarolinaMarshall
20.2%
<0.1%
East CarolinaGa SouthernGeorgia St
19.0%
<0.1%
Appalachian StLouisiana TechMarshall
18.9%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernGeorgia StUConn
18.6%
<0.1%
Appalachian StCoastal CarSouthern Miss
15.6%
0.1%
Appalachian StCoastal CarLouisiana Tech
14.8%
0.3%
Appalachian StMarshallUConn
14.5%
<0.1%
James MadisonLouisiana TechMarshall
14.5%
<0.1%
Appalachian StGeorgia StSouthern Miss
14.2%
0.1%
Appalachian StEast CarolinaGeorgia St
12.8%
0.2%
Appalachian StGeorgia StUConn
12.8%
0.2%
Appalachian StCoastal CarEast Carolina
12.6%
0.2%
Appalachian StCoastal CarUConn
12.6%
0.1%
Appalachian StGeorgia StLouisiana Tech
12.3%
0.3%
James MadisonMarshallSouthern Miss
12.3%
<0.1%
East CarolinaJames MadisonMarshall
10.8%
<0.1%
Appalachian StGa SouthernUConn
10.1%
0.1%
Appalachian StGa SouthernLouisiana Tech
10.0%
0.2%
Appalachian StGa SouthernSouthern Miss
9.0%
<0.1%
James MadisonMarshallUConn
8.3%
<0.1%
Appalachian StEast CarolinaGa Southern
7.6%
0.1%
Coastal CarJames MadisonSouthern Miss
7.2%
0.1%
Coastal CarJames MadisonLouisiana Tech
6.8%
0.2%
Georgia StJames MadisonSouthern Miss
6.5%
0.1%
Coastal CarEast CarolinaJames Madison
6.4%
0.2%
Coastal CarJames MadisonUConn
6.0%
0.1%
Georgia StJames MadisonLouisiana Tech
5.6%
0.2%
Georgia StJames MadisonUConn
5.5%
0.1%
East CarolinaGeorgia StJames Madison
5.5%
0.2%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonSouthern Miss
3.8%
<0.1%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonLouisiana Tech
3.2%
0.1%
Ga SouthernJames MadisonUConn
3.2%
<0.1%
East CarolinaGa SouthernJames Madison
2.8%
0.1%
Appalachian StJames MadisonLouisiana Tech
2.3%
0.5%
Appalachian StJames MadisonSouthern Miss
2.0%
0.2%
Appalachian StJames MadisonUConn
1.8%
0.3%
Appalachian StEast CarolinaJames Madison
1.6%
0.3%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Old DominionCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com