Old DominionMonarchs
0-0 T1st (0-0) in SBC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
26.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Old Dominion's probability of making the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game?
Old Dominion has a 26.2% chance to reach the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Old Dominion's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:20% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:47% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:50% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:69% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:57% | ||
| 10/15 | Win prob:65% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:56% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:66% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:62% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:60% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:57% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 1.7% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 9.2% | 82.1% |
| 6-2 | 21.3% | 48.1% |
| 5-3 | 28.0% | 20.3% |
| 4-4 | 23.2% | 4.7% |
| 3-5 | 12.0% | 0.0% |
| 2-6 | 3.9% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.8% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
91.2%
0.9%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%91.9%
<0.1%91.2%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.4%
<0.1%73.8%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
77.2%
4.5%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%94.9%
<0.1%93.6%
0.1%93.5%
<0.1%91.8%
0.2%91.4%
<0.1%91.3%
<0.1%91.0%
<0.1%88.5%
<0.1%87.1%
<0.1%86.2%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.7%
0.3%83.3%
<0.1%82.9%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%82.1%
<0.1%81.7%
0.2%81.3%
<0.1%81.0%
0.2%80.9%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%72.5%
<0.1%71.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.2%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%54.9%
0.1%50.7%
<0.1%47.2%
<0.1%45.8%
0.4%39.6%
<0.1%34.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%25.5%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.9%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%5.2%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
59.9%
11.7%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.3%
0.1%97.2%
0.1%97.0%
0.1%96.5%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%94.8%
0.1%94.6%
<0.1%93.5%
<0.1%93.1%
0.1%92.9%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.1%
0.1%89.8%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.5%
0.2%88.3%
0.2%87.9%
<0.1%87.8%
0.2%87.5%
0.3%85.4%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%83.7%
<0.1%83.3%
0.2%83.3%
<0.1%83.1%
0.2%83.0%
<0.1%82.8%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%82.2%
0.2%82.1%
<0.1%81.7%
0.1%81.5%
<0.1%81.5%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.7%
<0.1%80.6%
0.1%80.3%
0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.4%
0.1%76.7%
<0.1%75.7%
0.2%75.7%
0.1%75.7%
0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.2%
<0.1%73.9%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.0%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%59.2%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%51.9%
0.3%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.1%
<0.1%48.8%
<0.1%47.8%
<0.1%47.3%
0.3%46.9%
<0.1%46.8%
0.4%45.2%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.2%
0.2%42.1%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%38.3%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%35.5%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.3%
<0.1%32.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.2%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.1%
0.2%28.1%
<0.1%26.9%
<0.1%26.4%
<0.1%26.2%
0.1%26.1%
<0.1%26.1%
<0.1%25.9%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.9%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%22.9%
<0.1%22.4%
0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.9%
<0.1%20.2%
0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.6%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%18.5%
0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%17.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%14.9%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%10.6%
<0.1%10.6%
<0.1%10.2%
0.2%10.2%
0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
0.2%8.1%
0.2%7.4%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.0%
0.3%5.7%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
44.7%
17.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.8%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%96.2%
<0.1%95.9%
0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%94.3%
0.1%93.7%
0.1%93.5%
0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.2%
<0.1%91.0%
0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.6%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%90.4%
0.1%90.1%
0.2%90.0%
<0.1%89.3%
0.2%89.3%
<0.1%88.5%
0.1%87.8%
0.2%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.4%
0.1%87.1%
<0.1%87.0%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.4%
0.2%85.2%
<0.1%84.9%
<0.1%84.4%
0.2%84.2%
<0.1%83.5%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%82.2%
0.2%81.9%
0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.2%
0.1%81.1%
<0.1%80.8%
0.1%80.8%
0.1%80.7%
0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.6%
0.1%79.1%
0.2%78.8%
0.1%78.8%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%75.0%
0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.9%
<0.1%73.1%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%67.9%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.7%
0.2%53.3%
<0.1%53.1%
<0.1%51.1%
0.3%50.5%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.4%
0.1%47.5%
<0.1%46.9%
0.3%46.0%
<0.1%44.9%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.1%
0.2%43.8%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%40.5%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%38.1%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.2%
<0.1%35.3%
0.1%35.3%
<0.1%34.6%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.0%
<0.1%31.4%
0.1%31.0%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.9%
0.2%29.4%
<0.1%29.2%
<0.1%29.2%
<0.1%28.8%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.2%
0.1%27.8%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%27.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.9%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.5%
0.1%26.3%
0.1%25.8%
<0.1%25.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.7%
<0.1%23.9%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.4%
<0.1%22.5%
0.1%22.2%
0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.7%
0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.7%
<0.1%19.7%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%19.3%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%18.2%
0.2%17.1%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.4%
0.2%16.2%
0.1%16.2%
0.1%16.1%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.7%
0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%13.3%
0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.4%
0.1%11.9%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.7%
0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.3%
<0.1%11.2%
0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
0.2%10.7%
<0.1%10.4%
0.2%10.3%
<0.1%10.3%
0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
0.3%9.9%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.3%
0.1%8.6%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.2%
0.1%6.8%
0.3%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
0.2%6.0%
0.2%6.0%
0.1%5.6%
0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.5%
0.1%5.3%
0.2%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
0.2%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%Data from 2026-08-26