Louisiana TechBulldogs
0-0 T1st (0-0) in SBC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
13.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Louisiana Tech's probability of making the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game?
Louisiana Tech has a 13.1% chance to reach the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Louisiana Tech's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:3% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:14% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:47% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:53% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:66% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:44% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:46% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:39% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:45% | ||
| 11/19 | Win prob:55% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:42% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.3% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 2.6% | 83.3% |
| 6-2 | 9.9% | 49.5% |
| 5-3 | 20.9% | 20.9% |
| 4-4 | 27.7% | 5.0% |
| 3-5 | 22.9% | 0.1% |
| 2-6 | 11.9% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 3.4% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Any 1 loss
100.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
91.1%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%69.6%
<0.1%69.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
73.4%
1.9%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.1%
<0.1%86.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.5%
0.1%84.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.3%
0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.2%
0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.1%
0.2%72.7%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%60.9%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.2%
0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
53.6%
6.4%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.3%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.7%
<0.1%87.5%
0.2%87.5%
<0.1%87.2%
0.1%86.7%
0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.3%
0.1%82.0%
0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.6%
0.1%77.5%
<0.1%77.1%
<0.1%75.6%
0.1%75.4%
0.2%75.1%
0.2%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.7%
0.1%71.4%
0.1%71.4%
0.2%69.7%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%61.2%
0.1%60.1%
0.2%59.1%
<0.1%58.6%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.0%
0.2%55.6%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.7%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.5%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.6%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.3%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.9%
0.2%18.8%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.6%
0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.3%
0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
0.1%10.4%
0.1%10.2%
0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.3%
0.2%6.1%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%Data from 2026-08-26