LouisianaRagin' Cajuns
1-1 T1st (0-0) in SBC
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
21.7%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Louisiana's probability of making the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game?
Louisiana has a 21.7% chance to reach the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Louisiana's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | W38-7 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | L30-49 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:83% | |
| 4 | 9/26 | Win prob:73% | |
| 5 | 10/03 | Win prob:66% | |
| 6 | 10/10 | Win prob:42% | |
| 7 | 10/17 | Win prob:66% | |
| 8 | 10/24 | Win prob:44% | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:63% | |
| 11 | 11/12 | Win prob:88% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:68% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:50% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 1.5% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 8.9% | 78.1% |
| 6-2 | 21.9% | 39.7% |
| 5-3 | 29.3% | 13.3% |
| 4-4 | 23.3% | 2.6% |
| 3-5 | 11.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 3.2% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.5% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 21.7% (+0.1%) | 21.7% (-0.0%) | ||
| 21.7% (-0.0%) | 21.7% (+0.0%) | ||
| 21.6% (-0.1%) | 21.7% (+0.0%) | ||
| 21.7% (+0.1%) | 21.7% (-0.0%) | ||
| 21.8% (+0.1%) | 21.6% (-0.1%) | ||
| 21.7% (-0.0%) | 21.7% (+0.0%) | ||
| 21.7% (+0.0%) | 21.7% (-0.0%) | ||
| 21.6% (-0.1%) | 21.7% (+0.0%) | ||
| 21.6% (-0.0%) | 21.7% (+0.0%) | ||
| 21.0% (-0.7%) | 21.7% (+0.0%) | ||
| 21.7% (-0.0%) | 21.7% (+0.0%) | ||
| 21.5% (-0.2%) | 21.7% (+0.0%) | ||
| 21.7% (+0.0%) | 21.7% (+0.0%) | ||
| 21.7% (+0.0%) | 21.7% (-0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.9%Any 1 loss
80.0%
6.0%
100.0%
0.9%
100.0%
0.3%
100.0%
0.4%
100.0%
0.1%
100.0%
0.2%
77.0%
0.5%
76.1%
0.5%
72.1%
0.5%
68.5%
1.2%
65.1%
1.3%Any 2 losses
46.9%
16.5%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.9%
0.1%99.8%
<0.1%79.8%
0.1%78.5%
0.1%78.3%
0.2%77.2%
0.2%77.1%
0.2%76.7%
0.5%75.6%
0.5%75.2%
0.2%73.0%
0.2%72.0%
0.2%71.9%
0.5%71.6%
0.1%68.2%
0.4%68.0%
1.2%67.9%
0.3%67.9%
0.5%65.8%
0.6%65.6%
0.3%65.1%
1.3%64.8%
0.5%37.0%
<0.1%36.5%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%30.3%
0.2%30.0%
0.2%11.6%
0.3%9.6%
0.3%9.4%
0.3%8.8%
0.6%8.7%
0.6%8.1%
0.7%7.9%
0.7%7.7%
0.7%6.9%
0.7%6.3%
1.7%Any 3 losses
28.7%
20.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.6%
0.2%78.0%
0.2%77.8%
<0.1%77.1%
0.1%77.1%
<0.1%76.6%
<0.1%76.4%
0.2%76.3%
0.2%76.2%
<0.1%75.7%
0.1%75.6%
<0.1%75.2%
<0.1%73.2%
<0.1%72.2%
0.1%72.0%
0.2%71.4%
0.2%69.7%
0.3%69.2%
0.5%68.9%
0.4%68.6%
<0.1%68.5%
<0.1%68.0%
0.2%67.3%
0.1%65.9%
0.3%65.7%
0.6%64.9%
0.4%64.8%
0.2%64.4%
<0.1%64.0%
0.1%40.6%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.7%
<0.1%39.0%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%36.3%
<0.1%36.1%
<0.1%34.8%
<0.1%34.1%
<0.1%33.1%
<0.1%33.1%
<0.1%32.5%
0.2%31.6%
<0.1%30.7%
<0.1%30.6%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.7%
0.2%29.1%
<0.1%28.2%
<0.1%26.9%
<0.1%12.7%
<0.1%12.7%
0.1%12.7%
0.2%11.8%
<0.1%11.6%
0.3%11.5%
0.1%10.9%
<0.1%10.7%
0.1%10.0%
0.3%9.8%
0.2%9.8%
0.6%9.7%
0.3%9.6%
0.6%9.3%
0.1%9.3%
0.2%9.3%
0.1%9.0%
0.7%9.0%
0.1%8.9%
0.3%8.9%
0.2%8.7%
0.7%8.6%
0.3%8.6%
0.1%8.5%
0.3%8.3%
0.3%8.3%
0.7%8.3%
0.7%8.0%
0.2%7.9%
<0.1%7.9%
0.1%7.4%
0.3%7.0%
0.8%6.9%
0.1%6.8%
0.3%6.8%
0.6%6.7%
0.1%6.7%
1.6%6.5%
0.1%6.5%
0.3%5.7%
0.3%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17