LouisianaRagin' Cajuns
0-0 T1st (0-0) in SBC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
15.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Louisiana's probability of making the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game?
Louisiana has a 15.7% chance to reach the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Louisiana's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:5% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:72% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:59% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:58% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:47% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:54% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:37% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:61% | ||
| 11/12 | Win prob:69% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:64% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:60% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.9% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 6.0% | 79.5% |
| 6-2 | 16.8% | 37.1% |
| 5-3 | 27.1% | 11.9% |
| 4-4 | 26.3% | 2.3% |
| 3-5 | 15.8% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 5.9% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 1.2% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
95.2%
0.5%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%80.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
77.3%
2.9%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.2%
0.2%78.7%
0.3%77.7%
0.2%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.4%
0.3%73.3%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.8%
0.5%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
49.2%
9.4%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.9%
<0.1%97.4%
<0.1%97.1%
0.1%95.5%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%89.6%
0.1%88.5%
0.2%87.5%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%85.9%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.5%
0.1%82.2%
0.2%82.0%
0.3%81.6%
0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.7%
0.1%79.3%
0.1%78.3%
0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.4%
0.1%73.9%
0.1%72.7%
0.2%71.1%
0.1%70.0%
0.2%69.1%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%63.8%
0.4%63.6%
<0.1%63.4%
0.3%62.3%
0.4%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.3%
0.2%53.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.0%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.0%
0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.3%
0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.9%
0.2%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.0%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.6%
0.3%23.5%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.3%
0.3%16.7%
<0.1%14.5%
0.1%14.5%
0.2%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.8%
0.3%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.4%
0.2%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.5%
0.3%9.5%
<0.1%9.4%
0.6%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.2%
0.3%7.8%
0.5%7.2%
0.4%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
33.8%
14.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.9%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.8%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.2%
<0.1%86.5%
0.1%86.4%
<0.1%86.0%
<0.1%85.4%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%83.0%
<0.1%82.6%
<0.1%82.2%
0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.7%
0.1%81.5%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%79.8%
0.1%79.0%
<0.1%78.4%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%77.3%
0.1%76.5%
<0.1%75.6%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.8%
0.1%73.7%
<0.1%72.7%
0.1%71.4%
0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.8%
0.1%69.3%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.0%
<0.1%65.4%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.0%
0.2%61.9%
<0.1%61.7%
0.2%61.4%
0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.7%
0.3%58.3%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.9%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.3%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%44.2%
<0.1%41.5%
<0.1%41.5%
<0.1%40.8%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.1%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.1%
<0.1%36.6%
<0.1%35.6%
<0.1%34.2%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.8%
0.2%30.6%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.2%
<0.1%25.0%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.9%
<0.1%21.2%
0.2%21.2%
0.1%20.9%
0.2%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.0%
0.1%17.0%
0.1%16.7%
0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.6%
0.2%16.5%
0.1%16.5%
0.2%16.0%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.5%
0.2%15.5%
0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.2%
0.3%14.1%
<0.1%13.8%
0.2%13.6%
0.2%13.1%
0.1%12.8%
0.2%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.4%
0.2%12.0%
0.1%11.6%
0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.5%
0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.9%
0.2%10.8%
<0.1%10.3%
0.3%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.9%
0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.9%
0.3%8.9%
0.4%8.8%
<0.1%8.7%
0.1%8.7%
0.1%8.6%
0.2%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
0.4%8.2%
0.2%8.1%
<0.1%8.0%
0.2%7.9%
0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.3%
0.3%6.2%
0.4%5.9%
0.3%5.6%
0.3%2.4%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%Data from 2026-08-26