Louisiana

LouisianaRagin' Cajuns

5-3 T4th (2-2) in SBC

Data from 2026-11-02

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

1.4%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Louisiana's probability of making the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game?

Louisiana has a 1.4% chance to reach the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Louisiana's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

What does Louisiana need to do to reach the Sun Belt Conference Championship Game?

A perfect run to the end of the season puts Louisiana's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game odds at 1.8%; even one more loss drops that to 1.9%.

What is the biggest game this week for Louisiana's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game odds?

The biggest swing game for Louisiana's Sun Belt Conference Championship Game odds this week isn't even its own: a Troy win would boost them to 4.0%, while a Louisiana Tech win would leave them at <0.1%.

LouisianaSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
vsLamarLAM
W38-7
29/12
@USCUSC
L30-49
39/19
vsUABUAB
W21-14
49/26
@CharlotteCLT
W34-7
510/03
vsArkansas StARST
W23-20
610/10
@Louisiana TechLT
L31-32
710/17
vsTroyTROY
W33-6
810/24
@Southern MissUSM
L31-35
1011/07
vsSouth AlabamaUSA
Win prob:79%
1111/12
@ULMULM
Win prob:96%
1211/21
vsCoastal CarCCU
Win prob:80%
1311/28
@Georgia StGAST
Win prob:63%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

LouisianaRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
6-2
38.3%
1.8%
5-3
43.7%
1.3%
4-4
15.8%
0.7%
3-5
2.1%
0%
2-6
0.1%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Louisiana CCG Opponents

if Louisiana makes the CCG

JMUJames Madison
91.3%
GASOGa Southern
6.5%
CCUCoastal Car
1.4%
APPAppalachian St
0.7%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

LouisianaThis Week's Impact

Game
LouisianaCCG OddsAway Wins
LouisianaCCG OddsHome Wins
Thu, Nov 5
James MadisonJMU@Southern MissUSM
1.4%
(+0.0%)		1.4%
(+0.0%)
Sat, Nov 7
Old DominionODU@Coastal CarCCU
1.3%
(-0.1%)		1.4%
(+0.0%)
Georgia StGAST@Appalachian StAPP
1.4%
(+0.0%)		1.4%
(-0.0%)
ULMULM@Arkansas StARST
0.4%
(-1.0%)		1.4%
(+0.1%)
MarshallMRSH@Ga SouthernGASO
1.4%
(+0.0%)		1.4%
(+0.0%)
Louisiana TechLT@TroyTROY
0.1%
(-1.3%)		4.0%
(+2.6%)
South AlabamaUSA@LouisianaUL
0.0%
(-1.4%)		1.7%
(+0.4%)

Best Winner Combination for Louisiana

TroyTroyGeorgia StGeorgia StateGa SouthernGeorgia SouthernArkansas StArkansas StateLouisianaLouisianaCoastal CarCoastal Carolina

CCG: 5.8% • Scenario: 6.4%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Louisiana

TroyTroyArkansas StArkansas StateLouisianaLouisiana

CCG: 5.1% • Scenario: 24.8%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

LouisianaLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Louisiana CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
1.8%
38.3%
Any 1 loss
1.9%
31.8%
Coastal Car
1.9%
9.5%
Georgia St
1.8%
22.3%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

LouisianaCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%PreseasonWeek 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com