Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
11.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W34-27 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:90% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:58% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:28% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:44% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:79% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:36% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:63% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:64% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:65% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:38% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:68% |
Data from 2024-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.5% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 3.8% | 94.8% |
| 7-2 | 12.7% | 50.0% |
| 6-3 | 23.8% | 4.7% |
| 5-4 | 27.0% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 19.8% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 9.4% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 2.5% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-02
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 11.7% (+0.1%) | 11.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 11.7% (+0.2%) | 11.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 11.6% (-0.0%) | 11.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 11.2% (-0.4%) | 11.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 11.5% (-0.1%) | 11.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 11.5% (-0.1%) | 11.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 11.2% (-0.3%) | 11.8% (+0.2%) | |
| 11.7% (+0.1%) | 11.4% (-0.1%) | |
| 11.8% (+0.3%) | 11.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 11.6% (-0.0%) | 11.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 11.3% (-0.3%) | 11.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 11.2% (-0.4%) | 11.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 11.7% (+0.1%) | 11.3% (-0.3%) | |
| 11.8% (+0.3%) | 11.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 11.9% (+0.3%) | 11.5% (-0.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.1%Any 1 loss
96.0%
1.3%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%97.2%
<0.1%96.1%
0.2%96.0%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%93.9%
0.2%93.8%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%92.3%
0.2%Any 2 losses
70.3%
5.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.4%
0.2%98.1%
0.2%97.9%
0.2%97.8%
0.2%96.0%
0.5%96.0%
0.4%94.3%
<0.1%93.7%
0.2%91.7%
<0.1%89.3%
0.5%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.7%
0.1%64.7%
<0.1%64.5%
<0.1%63.3%
<0.1%62.8%
<0.1%60.5%
<0.1%59.2%
0.1%58.7%
0.1%58.6%
<0.1%57.6%
<0.1%57.3%
0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.0%
<0.1%55.6%
0.1%52.9%
<0.1%50.0%
0.1%48.3%
0.3%47.8%
0.1%47.4%
<0.1%46.8%
0.2%46.7%
<0.1%46.6%
0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.6%
0.1%44.2%
<0.1%42.7%
0.1%41.6%
0.3%40.4%
0.1%36.1%
0.4%34.7%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
32.3%
14.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.3%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%87.8%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.6%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%68.6%
0.1%66.7%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.4%
0.1%65.3%
0.1%64.5%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.7%
0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.2%
<0.1%62.0%
0.1%60.8%
0.2%60.2%
0.3%60.0%
<0.1%59.3%
0.1%59.1%
0.1%59.1%
<0.1%57.6%
0.2%56.9%
0.2%56.3%
<0.1%55.7%
0.2%55.7%
0.1%54.3%
0.3%53.8%
<0.1%53.6%
0.3%53.5%
0.3%53.3%
<0.1%52.8%
0.2%52.4%
0.1%51.2%
0.4%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.8%
0.7%47.4%
0.3%46.2%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.0%
0.3%42.9%
<0.1%42.6%
0.3%40.1%
0.3%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.4%
<0.1%37.9%
0.1%37.8%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.9%
1.0%36.7%
0.6%35.2%
0.4%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.2%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.2%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%8.2%
0.1%8.2%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.7%
0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.2%
<0.1%5.2%
0.2%4.9%
0.2%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
0.2%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.5%
0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.2%
0.2%4.2%
<0.1%4.1%
0.2%3.7%
0.2%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.1%
0.2%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
0.2%3.0%
0.2%3.0%
0.1%3.0%
0.5%2.9%
0.3%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.7%
0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.6%
0.2%1.6%
0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%Any 4 losses
7.3%
16.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%67.9%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.0%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.5%
<0.1%56.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%51.8%
<0.1%51.3%
<0.1%51.2%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.0%
<0.1%43.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%35.6%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.1%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.4%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.0%
0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
0.2%10.0%
<0.1%9.7%
0.1%9.6%
<0.1%9.4%
0.1%9.3%
0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.9%
0.2%8.8%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%7.8%
0.2%7.7%
<0.1%7.3%
0.2%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
0.2%6.9%
<0.1%6.9%
0.2%6.9%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.5%
0.1%6.4%
0.1%6.3%
0.2%6.2%
0.1%6.2%
0.4%6.0%
0.4%6.0%
0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
0.1%5.8%
0.2%5.8%
<0.1%5.7%
0.2%5.7%
0.3%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.4%
0.2%5.3%
0.2%5.3%
<0.1%5.2%
<0.1%5.2%
0.2%5.0%
<0.1%4.9%
0.2%4.9%
0.1%4.9%
0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.6%
0.4%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
0.4%4.3%
0.2%4.3%
0.4%4.0%
0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
0.2%4.0%
0.5%3.9%
0.1%3.7%
0.2%3.5%
0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.3%
0.4%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
0.5%2.9%
0.2%2.9%
0.5%2.8%
0.1%2.8%
0.4%2.8%
0.5%2.7%
0.4%2.7%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
0.2%2.5%
0.7%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
1.2%2.2%
0.5%2.1%
0.2%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.2%
0.2%Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-02