Big XII Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-09-02
Conference Standings
| T1 |  Kansas StateKSU | 0-0 | 1-0 | 68.6% | |
| T1 |  ArizonaARIZ | 0-0 | 1-0 | 47.0% | |
| T1 |  UtahUTAH | 0-0 | 1-0 | 18.1% | |
| T1 |  Iowa StateISU | 0-0 | 1-0 | 14.6% | |
| T1 |  KansasKU | 0-0 | 1-0 | 12.2% | |
| T1 |  TCUTCU | 0-0 | 1-0 | 11.6% | |
| T1 |  UCFUCF | 0-0 | 1-0 | 9.7% | |
| T1 |  Texas TechTTU | 0-0 | 1-0 | 5.9% | |
| T1 |  West VirginiaWVU | 0-0 | 0-1 | 4.8% | |
| T1 |  Oklahoma StateOKST | 0-0 | 1-0 | 4.2% | |
| T1 |  Arizona StateASU | 0-0 | 1-0 | 1.6% | |
| T1 |  BaylorBAY | 0-0 | 1-0 | 0.8% | |
| T1 |  BYUBYU | 0-0 | 1-0 | 0.3% | |
| T1 |  CincinnatiCIN | 0-0 | 1-0 | 0.3% | |
| T1 |  HoustonHOU | 0-0 | 0-1 | 0.3% | |
| T1 |  ColoradoCOLO | 0-0 | 1-0 | <0.1% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-09-02
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-02
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 68.6%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 68.5% (-0.1%) | 68.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 68.5% (-0.1%) | 68.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 68.8% (+0.1%) | 68.4% (-0.2%) | |
| 68.8% (+0.2%) | 68.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 68.6% (-0.0%) | 68.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 68.5% (-0.1%) | 68.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 68.7% (+0.1%) | 68.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 68.7% (+0.1%) | 68.4% (-0.2%) | |
| 68.4% (-0.2%) | 68.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 68.7% (+0.1%) | 68.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 68.2% (-0.4%) | 68.7% (+0.1%) | |
| 69.1% (+0.5%) | 68.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 68.5% (-0.1%) | 68.8% (+0.2%) | |
| 68.3% (-0.3%) | 68.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 68.3% (-0.3%) | 68.6% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | 5-4 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas StateKSU | 99.9% | 94.7% | 49.3% | 3.1% | - | 68.6% |
| ArizonaARIZ | 100% | 94.5% | 49.6% | 3.5% | - | 47.0% |
| UtahUTAH | 100% | 94.3% | 45.8% | 2.7% | - | 18.1% |
| Iowa StateISU | 100% | 96.9% | 51.6% | 4.8% | - | 14.6% |
| KansasKU | 100% | 91.7% | 39.9% | 2.1% | - | 12.2% |
| TCUTCU | 100% | 94.8% | 50.0% | 4.7% | - | 11.6% |
| UCFUCF | 100% | 94.0% | 44.4% | 2.2% | - | 9.7% |
| Texas TechTTU | 100% | 91.8% | 37.2% | 1.8% | - | 5.9% |
| West VirginiaWVU | 100% | 99.7% | 63.4% | 9.0% | <0.1% | 4.8% |
| Oklahoma StateOKST | 100% | 94.3% | 42.9% | 2.5% | - | 4.2% |
| Arizona StateASU | 100% | 99.4% | 62.4% | 8.7% | <0.1% | 1.6% |
| BaylorBAY | 100% | 92.1% | 36.7% | 1.7% | - | 0.8% |
| BYUBYU | - | 100% | 64.1% | 7.0% | - | 0.3% |
| CincinnatiCIN | - | 92.0% | 46.9% | 3.8% | - | 0.3% |
| HoustonHOU | 100% | 93.8% | 66.8% | 6.3% | <0.1% | 0.3% |
| ColoradoCOLO | - | 100% | 60.7% | 9.9% | - | <0.1% |
Data from 2024-09-02
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | 5-4 | 4-5 | 3-6 | 2-7 | 1-8 | 0-9 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas StateKSU(0-0) | 19.9% | 36.4% | 28.0% | 11.9% | 3.1% | 0.5% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.6 |
| ArizonaARIZ(0-0) | 7.7% | 24.0% | 31.9% | 23.1% | 10.1% | 2.7% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.9 |
| UtahUTAH(0-0) | 1.3% | 7.6% | 19.3% | 27.3% | 24.6% | 13.6% | 5.0% | 1.2% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 5.7 |
| KansasKU(0-0) | 0.5% | 5.1% | 16.1% | 27.0% | 26.6% | 16.5% | 6.4% | 1.5% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 5.4 |
| Iowa StateISU(0-0) | 0.7% | 5.0% | 15.3% | 26.4% | 26.8% | 17.0% | 6.9% | 1.6% | 0.2% | <0.1% | 5.4 |
| TCUTCU(0-0) | 0.5% | 3.8% | 12.7% | 23.8% | 27.0% | 19.8% | 9.4% | 2.5% | 0.4% | <0.1% | 5.1 |
| UCFUCF(0-0) | 0.4% | 3.5% | 12.3% | 23.8% | 28.1% | 20.2% | 8.9% | 2.3% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 5.1 |
| Texas TechTTU(0-0) | 0.2% | 2.1% | 9.2% | 21.4% | 28.3% | 23.4% | 11.5% | 3.3% | 0.5% | <0.1% | 4.9 |
| Oklahoma StateOKST(0-0) | <0.1% | 1.1% | 6.2% | 16.2% | 25.6% | 25.8% | 16.7% | 6.7% | 1.4% | 0.1% | 4.5 |
| West VirginiaWVU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.7% | 4.4% | 13.0% | 23.8% | 27.1% | 19.8% | 8.8% | 2.1% | 0.2% | 4.2 |
| Arizona StateASU(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.2% | 1.4% | 6.4% | 16.4% | 26.7% | 26.7% | 16.0% | 5.4% | 0.7% | 3.6 |
| BaylorBAY(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.2% | 1.4% | 5.6% | 14.9% | 25.1% | 27.2% | 18.0% | 6.6% | 1.0% | 3.4 |
| CincinnatiCIN(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2.2% | 8.5% | 20.2% | 29.1% | 25.1% | 12.1% | 2.4% | 2.9 |
| BYUBYU(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.3% | 1.7% | 6.8% | 17.5% | 28.2% | 27.5% | 14.7% | 3.3% | 2.7 |
| HoustonHOU(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.2% | 1.5% | 6.0% | 16.4% | 27.8% | 28.4% | 15.9% | 3.8% | 2.6 |
| ColoradoCOLO(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.3% | 2.1% | 8.7% | 22.0% | 32.4% | 26.0% | 8.4% | 2.0 |
Data from 2024-09-02