Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
18.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/29 | W49-0 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:81% | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:78% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:56% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:44% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:60% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:64% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:72% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:82% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:80% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:59% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:48% |
Data from 2024-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 1.3% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 7.6% | 94.3% |
| 7-2 | 19.3% | 45.8% |
| 6-3 | 27.3% | 2.7% |
| 5-4 | 24.6% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 13.6% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 5.0% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 1.2% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 18.1% (-0.0%) | 18.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 18.6% (+0.5%) | 18.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 18.1% (-0.1%) | 18.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 17.8% (-0.3%) | 18.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 18.9% (+0.8%) | 18.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 18.2% (+0.1%) | 18.1% (-0.1%) | |
| 17.9% (-0.2%) | 18.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 18.0% (-0.1%) | 18.3% (+0.2%) | |
| 17.8% (-0.3%) | 18.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 18.0% (-0.1%) | 18.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 18.1% (+0.0%) | 18.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 17.8% (-0.3%) | 18.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 18.1% (+0.0%) | 18.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 18.5% (+0.4%) | 18.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 18.0% (-0.1%) | 18.1% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.8%Any 1 loss
94.7%
5.3%
100.0%
0.2%
100.0%
0.2%
99.4%
0.1%
96.9%
0.9%
96.5%
0.7%
95.8%
0.2%
94.7%
0.3%
94.5%
0.5%
94.5%
0.6%
93.4%
0.5%
89.6%
1.1%Any 2 losses
54.5%
14.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.5%
0.2%97.3%
<0.1%97.1%
0.2%96.6%
0.1%96.6%
0.3%96.3%
<0.1%96.0%
0.1%95.8%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%94.1%
0.2%93.5%
<0.1%93.1%
0.1%93.0%
0.1%92.6%
0.1%89.4%
0.3%88.6%
0.3%65.5%
0.3%63.9%
0.4%63.5%
0.7%61.8%
0.2%60.0%
0.1%59.9%
0.2%58.3%
<0.1%57.3%
0.2%56.3%
0.1%56.3%
0.4%55.6%
0.6%54.0%
0.1%53.6%
0.1%52.9%
0.2%52.4%
0.1%51.4%
<0.1%50.5%
0.3%49.6%
0.1%49.3%
0.5%48.8%
<0.1%48.8%
0.4%48.7%
0.1%48.4%
0.4%48.0%
0.1%46.7%
0.4%46.5%
0.6%46.3%
0.2%42.8%
0.2%41.0%
1.1%39.4%
0.3%39.3%
0.9%37.1%
0.4%35.5%
0.3%34.1%
0.7%33.0%
0.6%28.8%
0.8%Any 3 losses
14.9%
23.8%100.0%
<0.1%98.3%
<0.1%97.3%
<0.1%96.9%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%93.9%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%89.2%
<0.1%86.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%67.5%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.4%
<0.1%64.0%
<0.1%63.7%
<0.1%63.3%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.8%
0.2%59.4%
<0.1%58.5%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%57.0%
0.2%56.5%
<0.1%54.3%
<0.1%54.0%
<0.1%54.0%
<0.1%53.5%
0.1%53.1%
0.2%53.1%
<0.1%52.0%
0.1%51.9%
<0.1%51.8%
<0.1%50.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.6%
0.1%49.5%
0.1%49.3%
<0.1%48.8%
<0.1%48.5%
0.1%47.4%
0.1%47.1%
<0.1%46.9%
<0.1%45.6%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.2%
<0.1%44.6%
0.2%44.4%
0.1%43.9%
<0.1%43.6%
0.1%43.3%
<0.1%42.9%
0.1%42.7%
0.3%42.1%
<0.1%41.7%
0.1%41.0%
<0.1%40.9%
0.2%40.5%
0.2%39.5%
<0.1%38.3%
0.3%37.8%
0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.9%
0.1%36.7%
<0.1%36.0%
<0.1%35.0%
0.1%33.7%
<0.1%29.2%
0.2%28.4%
0.2%27.8%
0.2%26.5%
0.1%25.2%
0.2%23.7%
0.2%12.9%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.7%
0.1%9.2%
<0.1%8.8%
0.3%8.1%
0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.2%
0.1%7.1%
0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%5.6%
0.2%4.9%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
0.4%4.2%
0.2%4.1%
0.4%4.1%
0.2%4.0%
0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
0.1%3.8%
0.2%3.8%
0.2%3.7%
0.2%3.4%
0.2%3.4%
0.1%3.3%
0.5%3.2%
0.3%3.1%
0.2%3.0%
0.1%3.0%
0.1%2.7%
0.2%2.7%
<0.1%2.5%
0.2%2.4%
0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
0.3%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
0.7%2.2%
0.5%2.2%
<0.1%2.2%
0.2%2.2%
0.1%2.2%
0.8%2.1%
0.1%2.1%
0.1%2.1%
0.4%2.1%
0.4%2.1%
0.5%2.1%
0.1%2.1%
0.1%2.0%
0.3%1.9%
<0.1%1.8%
0.2%1.8%
0.6%1.8%
0.5%1.8%
0.4%1.7%
0.3%1.6%
0.3%1.6%
0.4%1.5%
0.5%1.4%
0.4%1.4%
0.3%1.4%
<0.1%1.4%
0.4%1.3%
0.3%1.3%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.9%
0.2%0.7%
0.8%Any 4 losses
7.6%
7.8%100.0%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%63.4%
<0.1%61.8%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%53.6%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%51.5%
<0.1%51.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.8%
<0.1%45.0%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%43.3%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%34.6%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.3%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.6%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.4%
0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%5.0%
0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.7%
0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.4%
0.2%3.3%
<0.1%3.1%
0.1%3.0%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
0.2%2.8%
0.1%2.8%
0.2%2.7%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.7%
0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
0.2%2.2%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.1%
0.1%2.1%
0.2%2.0%
<0.1%1.9%
0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.6%
0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
0.2%1.2%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%1.0%
0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-02