Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
47.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W61-39 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | Win prob:90% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:32% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:56% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:79% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:81% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:93% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:79% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:62% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:90% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:62% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:83% |
Data from 2024-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 7.7% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 24.0% | 94.5% |
| 7-2 | 31.9% | 49.6% |
| 6-3 | 23.1% | 3.5% |
| 5-4 | 10.1% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 2.7% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 46.9% (-0.1%) | 47.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 46.5% (-0.5%) | 47.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 47.0% (+0.0%) | 47.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 46.9% (-0.2%) | 47.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 47.0% (+0.0%) | 47.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 47.0% (-0.1%) | 47.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 47.2% (+0.2%) | 46.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 47.0% (-0.0%) | 47.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 47.9% (+0.9%) | 46.7% (-0.3%) | |
| 47.0% (+0.0%) | 47.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 47.3% (+0.3%) | 47.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 46.4% (-0.7%) | 47.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 46.9% (-0.1%) | 47.3% (+0.2%) | |
| 47.2% (+0.2%) | 47.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 46.3% (-0.7%) | 47.1% (+0.1%) |
Data from 2024-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
2.2%Any 1 loss
97.0%
12.0%
100.0%
4.8%
100.0%
0.2%
96.6%
1.3%
96.4%
1.3%
95.7%
0.6%
95.3%
0.3%
94.4%
0.5%
94.2%
0.5%
94.2%
0.2%
93.9%
0.6%
92.7%
1.8%Any 2 losses
78.0%
25.2%100.0%
0.5%98.3%
<0.1%96.9%
<0.1%96.2%
2.8%95.7%
1.2%95.0%
0.2%94.6%
1.0%94.4%
0.1%94.3%
0.4%94.2%
0.6%94.2%
0.9%93.9%
2.8%93.1%
3.7%92.9%
0.1%92.7%
1.2%90.6%
<0.1%89.3%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.1%
<0.1%70.4%
<0.1%64.9%
<0.1%63.3%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%62.0%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%60.0%
0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.7%
0.1%59.5%
0.1%59.0%
0.3%58.7%
0.1%58.6%
0.3%57.1%
<0.1%55.2%
0.3%54.5%
0.3%54.1%
0.1%53.2%
0.2%53.1%
0.4%52.9%
0.1%52.3%
0.1%51.8%
0.1%50.3%
0.4%50.2%
0.4%49.4%
0.2%49.2%
1.0%48.8%
0.8%48.2%
0.3%47.5%
0.1%47.5%
0.2%47.0%
0.4%45.8%
0.4%43.0%
1.1%40.8%
0.3%38.8%
0.5%Any 3 losses
41.9%
28.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.6%
0.1%96.4%
0.1%95.3%
0.3%95.1%
0.4%94.5%
<0.1%94.2%
0.1%94.0%
0.3%89.4%
0.1%73.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%68.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.2%
<0.1%62.1%
0.3%61.5%
0.2%60.8%
0.2%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.9%
0.2%59.7%
0.6%59.1%
<0.1%58.6%
0.3%58.3%
<0.1%58.1%
<0.1%56.9%
0.7%56.7%
0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.2%
0.1%54.7%
0.6%54.0%
0.2%53.8%
<0.1%52.9%
0.4%52.7%
0.3%52.4%
0.1%52.3%
0.5%52.1%
0.3%51.6%
<0.1%51.6%
1.0%51.1%
<0.1%50.7%
0.6%50.6%
1.7%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.8%
0.2%49.1%
0.9%48.7%
0.1%48.4%
0.3%48.1%
<0.1%47.6%
2.2%47.1%
0.3%47.0%
0.7%46.6%
0.8%46.5%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.2%
<0.1%45.1%
0.4%44.4%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%43.4%
0.1%43.2%
<0.1%43.1%
2.2%42.8%
1.0%42.6%
0.7%41.9%
0.8%39.6%
<0.1%38.2%
<0.1%37.9%
<0.1%37.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.7%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.1%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
0.1%6.6%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.4%
0.3%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
0.2%5.1%
<0.1%5.1%
0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.8%
0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
0.1%4.5%
0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.0%
0.2%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
0.2%3.9%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
0.2%3.1%
0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.0%
0.1%2.8%
0.1%2.8%
0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
0.6%2.4%
0.2%2.3%
<0.1%1.8%
0.3%1.5%
0.2%1.5%
0.3%1.5%
0.3%1.0%
0.1%0.9%
0.2%Any 4 losses
9.9%
16.4%100.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.3%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.3%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.7%
<0.1%59.0%
<0.1%56.0%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.2%
0.1%53.5%
0.2%53.3%
<0.1%52.5%
<0.1%51.7%
<0.1%51.2%
<0.1%50.9%
0.3%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.4%
<0.1%45.7%
<0.1%45.6%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%41.2%
0.1%39.3%
<0.1%38.6%
0.3%35.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.9%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.9%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.2%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.5%
0.2%7.1%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.6%
0.2%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.7%
0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.2%
0.2%5.2%
0.1%5.1%
0.3%4.9%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
0.2%4.5%
0.1%4.5%
0.1%4.5%
0.3%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
0.1%4.4%
0.6%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
0.5%4.2%
0.2%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
0.5%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
0.2%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
0.2%3.3%
<0.1%3.3%
0.3%3.2%
0.2%3.2%
0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.1%
0.4%3.0%
0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
0.6%2.9%
0.5%2.7%
0.1%2.7%
0.3%2.7%
<0.1%2.5%
0.5%2.4%
0.6%2.4%
0.2%2.3%
0.4%2.2%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.1%
1.3%2.0%
0.3%2.0%
0.6%1.9%
0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
0.1%1.7%
0.5%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
0.2%1.4%
0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.1%
0.2%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2024-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-02