Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
38.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W24-14 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W37-34 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:73% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:84% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:96% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:42% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:89% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:93% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:39% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:83% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:80% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:76% |
Data from 2024-09-08
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 5.3% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 22.7% | 93.3% |
| 7-2 | 34.5% | 34.3% |
| 6-3 | 25.1% | 1.8% |
| 5-4 | 9.8% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 2.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-08
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-08
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 38.7% (-0.1%) | 39.2% (+0.4%) | |
| 38.8% (+0.0%) | 38.6% (-0.2%) | |
| 38.4% (-0.3%) | 38.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 39.0% (+0.3%) | 38.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 38.8% (+0.0%) | 38.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 38.6% (-0.2%) | 38.9% (+0.1%) | |
| 38.8% (+0.1%) | 38.6% (-0.2%) | |
| 38.7% (-0.1%) | 38.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 39.0% (+0.3%) | 38.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 39.4% (+0.7%) | 38.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 38.4% (-0.3%) | 38.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 38.0% (-0.8%) | 39.0% (+0.3%) | |
| 38.7% (-0.0%) | 39.0% (+0.2%) |
Data from 2024-09-08
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
3.9%Any 1 loss
93.9%
17.8%
100.0%
1.4%
99.1%
0.9%
98.5%
0.7%
98.4%
1.0%
98.4%
0.2%
98.3%
0.3%
96.6%
1.2%
93.5%
0.5%
92.0%
6.3%
91.3%
5.3%Any 2 losses
46.1%
31.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.5%
0.4%98.4%
0.1%97.2%
0.3%96.4%
0.3%94.9%
0.4%94.3%
0.2%91.7%
2.1%91.2%
2.4%80.0%
<0.1%79.5%
<0.1%79.4%
<0.1%78.0%
<0.1%76.6%
0.1%75.6%
<0.1%74.6%
<0.1%71.9%
<0.1%69.7%
0.2%69.3%
0.1%69.2%
<0.1%67.5%
0.1%67.5%
<0.1%65.3%
0.2%58.0%
<0.1%57.5%
0.2%55.0%
0.3%54.5%
0.1%51.1%
0.2%47.9%
0.3%47.2%
0.3%46.9%
0.8%46.9%
0.8%46.8%
0.3%46.3%
0.5%44.0%
1.3%43.8%
1.0%43.0%
1.5%42.3%
1.2%42.2%
1.1%41.2%
1.2%40.5%
0.4%30.8%
2.1%25.8%
1.7%18.2%
8.6%Any 3 losses
12.9%
27.3%92.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%79.3%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.0%
<0.1%71.0%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%65.2%
<0.1%63.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.9%
<0.1%60.5%
<0.1%58.1%
<0.1%57.7%
<0.1%57.1%
0.1%56.5%
<0.1%54.0%
<0.1%52.0%
<0.1%51.1%
<0.1%50.5%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%45.5%
0.4%44.8%
0.3%44.1%
0.5%41.8%
0.4%41.8%
0.2%41.6%
0.5%41.3%
0.3%39.5%
0.6%38.6%
0.4%38.6%
0.2%30.3%
0.1%29.8%
0.8%27.6%
0.6%25.0%
<0.1%19.4%
3.3%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%7.8%
0.2%7.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%6.2%
<0.1%6.1%
0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.5%
0.2%5.1%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.3%
0.2%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.9%
0.3%3.6%
<0.1%3.4%
0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.0%
0.2%2.9%
0.4%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
0.4%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.2%
0.2%2.1%
0.1%2.1%
0.1%2.0%
0.1%1.8%
0.2%1.8%
0.2%1.7%
0.4%1.6%
0.3%1.6%
0.4%1.5%
1.2%1.5%
0.5%1.3%
1.6%1.2%
1.9%1.2%
<0.1%1.2%
0.4%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
0.3%1.0%
0.1%0.9%
2.1%0.9%
0.3%0.9%
0.2%0.8%
0.3%0.8%
0.7%0.5%
2.8%Any 4 losses
2.2%
5.9%14.3%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%9.9%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.7%
0.2%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.9%
0.1%2.8%
0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.1%
0.2%2.0%
0.1%1.9%
0.4%1.7%
0.1%1.6%
0.8%1.2%
<0.1%1.1%
0.3%0.9%
1.0%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.7%0.8%
0.1%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2024-09-08
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-08