Big Ten Championship Probabilities
Simulated probabilities for conference championship game appearances• Data from 2024-09-08
Conference Standings
| 1 |  Michigan StateMSU | 1-0 | 2-0 | <0.1% | |
| T2 |  Ohio StateOSU | 0-0 | 2-0 | 67.9% | |
| T2 |  MichiganMICH | 0-0 | 1-1 | 42.0% | |
| T2 |  OregonORE | 0-0 | 2-0 | 38.8% | |
| T2 |  Penn StatePSU | 0-0 | 2-0 | 28.1% | |
| T2 |  USCUSC | 0-0 | 2-0 | 10.1% | |
| T2 |  WashingtonWASH | 0-0 | 2-0 | 8.4% | |
| T2 |  WisconsinWIS | 0-0 | 2-0 | 1.1% | |
| T2 |  MarylandMD | 0-1 | 1-1 | 1.1% | |
| T2 |  NebraskaNEB | 0-0 | 2-0 | 1.1% | |
| T2 |  IowaIOWA | 0-0 | 1-1 | 0.4% | |
| T2 |  UCLAUCLA | 0-0 | 1-0 | 0.4% | |
| T2 |  RutgersRUTG | 0-0 | 2-0 | 0.3% | |
| T2 |  IllinoisILL | 0-0 | 2-0 | 0.2% | |
| T2 |  PurduePUR | 0-0 | 1-0 | <0.1% | |
| T2 |  MinnesotaMINN | 0-0 | 1-1 | <0.1% | |
| T2 |  NorthwesternNU | 0-0 | 1-1 | <0.1% | |
| T2 |  IndianaIU | 0-0 | 2-0 | <0.1% | |
Based on 100,000 simulations • Data from 2024-09-08
Most Likely CCG Matchups
Data from 2024-09-08
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-08
This Week's Impact on CCG Odds
Current CCG Probability: 67.9%
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 67.9% (-0.1%) | 68.3% (+0.4%) | |
| 68.0% (+0.0%) | 67.8% (-0.2%) | |
| 68.7% (+0.8%) | 67.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 67.9% (-0.0%) | 67.9% (+0.0%) | |
| 68.1% (+0.2%) | 67.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 68.3% (+0.3%) | 67.7% (-0.3%) | |
| 67.9% (-0.0%) | 68.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 68.4% (+0.4%) | 67.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 67.7% (-0.3%) | 68.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 67.5% (-0.4%) | 68.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 67.4% (-0.5%) | 68.0% (+0.1%) | |
| 69.1% (+1.1%) | 67.5% (-0.4%) | |
| 67.9% (-0.1%) | 68.4% (+0.4%) |
Data from 2024-09-08
CCG Odds by Conference Record
Probability of making the conference championship game given a final conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | Overall |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio StateOSU | 100% | 95.7% | 33.8% | 0.9% | 67.9% |
| MichiganMICH | 100% | 89.8% | 29.4% | 0.8% | 42.0% |
| OregonORE | 100% | 93.3% | 34.3% | 1.8% | 38.8% |
| Penn StatePSU | 100% | 82.1% | 24.1% | 0.7% | 28.1% |
| USCUSC | 100% | 81.7% | 23.4% | 0.5% | 10.1% |
| WashingtonWASH | 100% | 89.4% | 27.7% | 0.5% | 8.4% |
| WisconsinWIS | 100% | 76.8% | 14.8% | 0.1% | 1.1% |
| MarylandMD | - | 81.2% | 16.7% | <0.1% | 1.1% |
| NebraskaNEB | 100% | 67.0% | 8.9% | <0.1% | 1.1% |
| IowaIOWA | 100% | 68.3% | 10.6% | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| UCLAUCLA | 100% | 76.6% | 21.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| RutgersRUTG | 100% | 55.9% | 9.3% | <0.1% | 0.3% |
| IllinoisILL | 100% | 87.5% | 17.9% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| PurduePUR | 100% | 95.0% | 19.5% | 0.2% | <0.1% |
| Michigan StateMSU | - | 62.5% | 24.3% | 0.3% | <0.1% |
| MinnesotaMINN | - | 70.6% | 22.0% | 0.3% | <0.1% |
| NorthwesternNU | 100% | 77.8% | 18.4% | 0.5% | <0.1% |
| IndianaIU | - | 100% | 14.8% | 0.3% | <0.1% |
Data from 2024-09-08
Final Record Distribution
Probability of each team finishing with a given conference record
| Team | 9-0 | 8-1 | 7-2 | 6-3 | 5-4 | 4-5 | 3-6 | 2-7 | 1-8 | 0-9 | Avg Wins |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio StateOSU(0-0) | 20.0% | 39.9% | 28.7% | 9.6% | 1.7% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.7 |
| MichiganMICH(0-0) | 6.8% | 27.3% | 36.0% | 21.8% | 6.7% | 1.3% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 7.0 |
| OregonORE(0-0) | 5.3% | 22.7% | 34.5% | 25.1% | 9.8% | 2.2% | 0.3% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.8 |
| Penn StatePSU(0-0) | 4.4% | 19.3% | 31.6% | 26.9% | 13.1% | 3.9% | 0.7% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 6.6 |
| USCUSC(0-0) | 0.8% | 6.0% | 18.5% | 29.1% | 25.9% | 14.1% | 4.6% | 0.9% | <0.1% | 0.0% | 5.6 |
| WashingtonWASH(0-0) | 0.4% | 4.1% | 15.0% | 28.1% | 28.6% | 16.8% | 5.7% | 1.1% | 0.1% | <0.1% | 5.4 |
| MarylandMD(0-1) | - | 0.4% | 4.5% | 17.5% | 30.9% | 28.1% | 14.1% | 4.0% | 0.6% | <0.1% | 4.6 |
| NebraskaNEB(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.8% | 5.5% | 16.7% | 26.8% | 26.6% | 16.4% | 5.9% | 1.3% | 0.1% | 4.5 |
| WisconsinWIS(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.6% | 3.8% | 12.5% | 24.4% | 28.2% | 19.9% | 8.4% | 1.9% | 0.2% | 4.2 |
| IowaIOWA(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.2% | 2.0% | 8.5% | 19.7% | 28.0% | 24.3% | 13.0% | 3.8% | 0.5% | 3.8 |
| RutgersRUTG(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.2% | 1.6% | 6.8% | 17.5% | 26.7% | 26.0% | 15.5% | 5.0% | 0.7% | 3.6 |
| UCLAUCLA(0-0) | <0.1% | 0.1% | 1.1% | 5.7% | 16.7% | 27.8% | 28.0% | 15.4% | 4.7% | 0.6% | 3.6 |
| IllinoisILL(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.7% | 4.5% | 15.3% | 27.8% | 28.6% | 17.1% | 5.3% | 0.6% | 3.5 |
| Michigan StateMSU(1-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.2% | 2.6% | 12.2% | 28.1% | 32.7% | 19.5% | 4.6% | - | 3.3 |
| PurduePUR(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.4% | 2.4% | 9.4% | 21.5% | 29.7% | 24.1% | 10.5% | 2.0% | 3.0 |
| NorthwesternNU(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.2% | 1.6% | 7.2% | 19.0% | 30.0% | 27.0% | 12.7% | 2.4% | 2.8 |
| MinnesotaMINN(0-0) | 0.0% | <0.1% | 0.2% | 1.5% | 6.1% | 16.3% | 27.5% | 28.2% | 16.2% | 3.9% | 2.6 |
| IndianaIU(0-0) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.0% | 5.0% | 14.8% | 27.8% | 29.6% | 17.4% | 4.3% | 2.5 |
Data from 2024-09-08