Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
8.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W35-3 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W30-9 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:74% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:85% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:75% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:34% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:71% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:82% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:57% | |
| 11 | 11/09 | Win prob:30% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:82% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:24% |
Data from 2024-09-08
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.4% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 4.1% | 89.4% |
| 7-2 | 15.0% | 27.7% |
| 6-3 | 28.1% | 0.5% |
| 5-4 | 28.6% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 16.8% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 5.7% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 1.1% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-08
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-08
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 8.4% (+0.0%) | 8.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 8.4% (+0.0%) | 8.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 8.8% (+0.5%) | 8.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 8.1% (-0.3%) | 8.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 8.4% (+0.1%) | 8.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 8.4% (+0.0%) | 8.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 8.3% (-0.0%) | 8.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 8.1% (-0.3%) | 8.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 8.3% (-0.1%) | 8.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 8.3% (-0.0%) | 8.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 8.8% (+0.4%) | 8.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 8.3% (-0.1%) | 8.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 8.3% (-0.0%) | 8.5% (+0.2%) |
Data from 2024-09-08
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.3%Any 1 loss
89.9%
3.1%
100.0%
0.1%
99.2%
0.1%
98.4%
<0.1%
98.3%
0.2%
97.4%
0.1%
96.9%
<0.1%
94.6%
<0.1%
88.8%
0.8%
87.1%
1.0%
85.2%
0.6%Any 2 losses
32.7%
11.9%100.0%
<0.1%97.4%
<0.1%96.2%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%94.3%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%90.0%
0.3%88.1%
0.3%82.9%
0.2%82.3%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%63.3%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.5%
<0.1%55.8%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%53.0%
<0.1%49.0%
0.2%45.7%
0.2%43.6%
0.1%43.1%
0.2%42.8%
0.3%42.0%
0.3%38.5%
0.2%37.8%
0.2%37.1%
0.2%36.3%
0.4%33.3%
0.1%32.0%
0.1%31.4%
0.7%30.7%
0.5%30.1%
0.1%30.0%
0.3%28.3%
0.1%24.5%
0.5%19.7%
2.2%17.0%
1.5%13.3%
1.9%Any 3 losses
11.9%
10.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%68.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%53.1%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.3%
<0.1%45.3%
<0.1%45.1%
<0.1%44.9%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.2%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.7%
<0.1%39.7%
<0.1%39.5%
0.1%38.8%
<0.1%37.3%
0.1%34.3%
0.3%33.5%
0.2%33.3%
<0.1%31.1%
<0.1%26.6%
0.1%21.6%
<0.1%20.9%
0.9%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.8%
0.5%14.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.6%
0.7%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%3.3%
0.2%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.1%
0.1%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
0.1%1.5%
0.1%1.3%
0.2%1.2%
0.3%1.2%
<0.1%0.9%
0.3%0.8%
0.3%0.8%
0.8%0.8%
0.3%0.8%
0.3%0.7%
1.0%0.6%
0.8%0.6%
0.5%0.5%
0.2%Any 4 losses
1.7%
1.1%16.7%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%1.6%
0.2%1.4%
0.1%0.9%
0.2%0.9%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%Data from 2024-09-08
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-08