Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W16-13 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:73% | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:15% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:16% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:12% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:66% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:48% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:37% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:58% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:18% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:28% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:60% |
Data from 2024-09-08
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.1% | 76.6% |
| 7-2 | 1.1% | 21.5% |
| 6-3 | 5.7% | 0.3% |
| 5-4 | 16.7% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 27.8% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 28.0% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 15.4% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 4.7% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-08
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-08
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.1%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.3% (-0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.4% (-0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.0% (-0.3%) | 0.5% (+0.1%) | |
| 0.4% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (-0.0%) |
Data from 2024-09-08
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Any 1 loss
<0.1%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
49.8%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
25.2%
0.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%20.4%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%6.4%
0.1%Any 4 losses
11.2%
0.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%22.9%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.3%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%3.4%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.8%
0.1%1.1%
<0.1%Data from 2024-09-08
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-08