Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/31 | W40-7 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W28-10 | |
| 3 | 9/14 | Win prob:90% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:68% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:56% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:68% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:63% | |
| 9 | 10/26 | Win prob:6% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:63% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:21% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:56% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:47% |
Data from 2024-09-08
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.8% | 67.0% |
| 7-2 | 5.5% | 8.9% |
| 6-3 | 16.7% | 0.1% |
| 5-4 | 26.8% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 26.6% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 16.4% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 5.9% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 1.3% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-08
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-08
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.1% (+0.0%) | 1.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.1% (+0.0%) | 1.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.1% (+0.1%) | 1.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.2% (+0.1%) | 1.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.1% (+0.0%) | 1.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.1% (+0.0%) | 1.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.1% (-0.0%) | 1.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 0.9% (-0.2%) | 1.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.2% (+0.1%) | 1.0% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.2% (+0.1%) | 1.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.1% (+0.0%) | 1.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.1% (-0.0%) | 1.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.1% (+0.0%) | 1.0% (-0.1%) |
Data from 2024-09-08
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
66.9%
0.7%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
91.7%
<0.1%
84.6%
<0.1%
82.6%
<0.1%
81.8%
<0.1%
81.3%
<0.1%
80.0%
0.1%
79.4%
<0.1%
56.6%
0.4%Any 2 losses
9.6%
5.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%53.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.1%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.3%
0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.1%
0.3%9.7%
0.5%7.7%
<0.1%7.3%
0.3%7.3%
0.2%7.0%
0.2%6.8%
0.4%6.3%
<0.1%6.2%
0.3%3.2%
1.8%Any 3 losses
5.9%
1.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%14.5%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%2.6%
0.2%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%Any 4 losses
1.2%
0.1%4.2%
<0.1%0.8%
0.1%Data from 2024-09-08
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-08