Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
10.1%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/01 | W27-20 | |
| 2 | 9/07 | W48-0 | |
| 4 | 9/21 | Win prob:22% | |
| 5 | 9/28 | Win prob:78% | |
| 6 | 10/05 | Win prob:78% | |
| 7 | 10/12 | Win prob:46% | |
| 8 | 10/19 | Win prob:55% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:86% | |
| 10 | 11/02 | Win prob:43% | |
| 12 | 11/16 | Win prob:79% | |
| 13 | 11/23 | Win prob:72% | |
| 14 | 11/30 | Win prob:45% |
Data from 2024-09-08
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.8% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 6.0% | 81.7% |
| 7-2 | 18.5% | 23.4% |
| 6-3 | 29.1% | 0.5% |
| 5-4 | 25.9% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 14.1% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 4.6% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.9% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2024-09-08
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2024-09-08
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 10.1% (+0.0%) | 10.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 10.2% (+0.0%) | 9.9% (-0.3%) | |
| 10.3% (+0.1%) | 10.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 10.3% (+0.2%) | 10.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 10.4% (+0.3%) | 10.0% (-0.1%) | |
| 10.0% (-0.1%) | 10.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 10.1% (-0.0%) | 10.2% (+0.1%) | |
| 10.4% (+0.3%) | 10.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 10.1% (+0.0%) | 10.1% (+0.0%) | |
| 9.8% (-0.3%) | 10.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 10.4% (+0.2%) | 10.1% (-0.0%) | |
| 9.4% (-0.7%) | 10.4% (+0.3%) | |
| 10.1% (-0.0%) | 10.3% (+0.1%) |
Data from 2024-09-08
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.3%Any 1 loss
83.4%
3.0%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
0.4%
96.4%
<0.1%
93.3%
0.1%
91.5%
<0.1%
90.6%
0.1%
90.1%
0.4%
89.7%
0.3%
77.8%
0.4%
71.2%
1.1%Any 2 losses
40.7%
11.7%96.0%
0.2%95.0%
0.1%94.4%
0.1%94.1%
<0.1%92.1%
0.3%88.7%
0.1%88.3%
0.6%82.6%
0.5%76.0%
<0.1%73.0%
1.4%64.3%
<0.1%63.3%
<0.1%60.6%
<0.1%56.5%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%51.9%
<0.1%51.7%
<0.1%51.3%
0.1%50.8%
0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.6%
0.1%42.0%
<0.1%41.7%
0.1%37.2%
0.4%36.1%
<0.1%34.9%
0.1%33.3%
0.2%32.9%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%29.6%
<0.1%28.4%
0.2%27.9%
0.3%27.7%
0.2%24.8%
0.1%22.9%
0.3%22.4%
0.9%22.1%
0.5%21.8%
0.3%21.7%
0.5%16.1%
0.3%13.4%
1.6%10.8%
1.3%Any 3 losses
17.0%
14.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.3%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%55.8%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.4%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%52.6%
<0.1%51.5%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.1%
0.1%43.8%
0.1%43.7%
<0.1%42.3%
<0.1%38.6%
0.1%36.8%
0.2%36.1%
0.4%34.2%
0.1%32.9%
<0.1%31.9%
0.1%30.4%
0.2%29.5%
0.2%26.7%
0.4%25.6%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.2%
0.6%23.7%
0.2%21.1%
0.4%20.6%
1.2%20.3%
0.4%19.9%
0.6%18.7%
0.4%12.5%
1.9%11.0%
1.6%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%1.6%
0.1%1.5%
0.1%1.5%
0.2%1.2%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.3%0.8%
0.3%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.4%0.6%
0.2%0.6%
0.3%0.5%
0.6%Any 4 losses
1.4%
5.0%33.3%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.1%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.0%
0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.8%
0.2%1.8%
0.2%1.7%
0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.7%
0.2%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.4%
0.1%1.4%
0.3%1.2%
<0.1%1.2%
0.2%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
0.5%1.0%
0.5%0.7%
0.3%0.7%
0.3%0.6%
0.2%0.6%
0.2%0.5%
0.8%Data from 2024-09-08
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2024-09-08