Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
2.0%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W34-7 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:51% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:97% | |
| 4 | 9/19 | Win prob:64% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:41% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:58% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:13% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:66% | |
| 11 | 11/08 | Win prob:33% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:23% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:87% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:65% |
Data from 2025-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.9% | 90.8% |
| 7-2 | 5.3% | 20.6% |
| 6-3 | 16.1% | 0.1% |
| 5-4 | 27.6% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 27.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 16.3% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 5.4% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.9% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-02
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 1.8% (-0.1%) | 2.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.5% (-0.5%) | 2.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.0% (+0.0%) | 2.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.0% (+0.0%) | 2.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.2% (+0.2%) | 1.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.9% (-0.1%) | 2.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.0% (+0.0%) | 1.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 2.0% (+0.1%) | 1.9% (-0.1%) | |
| 2.0% (+0.1%) | 1.9% (-0.0%) | |
| 1.9% (-0.1%) | 2.1% (+0.1%) | |
| 1.8% (-0.2%) | 2.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.9% (-0.1%) | 2.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.7% (-0.3%) | 2.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.9% (-0.1%) | 2.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.0% (+0.0%) | 2.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.1% (+0.1%) | 1.8% (-0.1%) | |
| 2.0% (+0.0%) | 2.0% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.8% (-0.2%) | 2.0% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2025-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
92.2%
0.5%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
95.2%
0.1%
94.1%
<0.1%
93.3%
<0.1%
90.1%
0.2%
89.3%
<0.1%
87.3%
<0.1%
83.3%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
30.0%
3.1%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.8%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%89.7%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%86.4%
0.2%75.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.0%
<0.1%32.0%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.9%
<0.1%30.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.2%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.4%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%27.0%
<0.1%26.6%
0.1%25.9%
0.1%25.7%
<0.1%25.0%
0.1%25.0%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
0.2%19.7%
0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.4%
0.3%14.3%
<0.1%13.5%
0.4%12.2%
0.7%8.3%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
16.8%
3.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.8%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%36.2%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%34.9%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.7%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%26.5%
<0.1%25.0%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.5%
0.1%23.3%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%20.4%
0.2%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.4%
0.3%16.4%
0.1%13.2%
0.6%11.8%
0.4%1.4%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%0.6%
0.2%0.5%
0.2%Any 4 losses
2.7%
0.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%0.6%
0.3%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-02