Oregon

OregonDucks

1-0 T1st (0-0) in B1G

Data from 2025-09-02 · View latest

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

21.9%

Based on 100,000 simulations

OregonSchedule & Results

WeekDateOpponentResult
18/30
vsMontana StateMTST
W59-13
29/06
vsOklahoma StOKST
Win prob:97%
39/13
@NorthwesternNU
Win prob:91%
49/20
vsOregon StORST
Win prob:96%
59/27
@Penn StPSU
Win prob:18%
710/11
vsIndianaIU
Win prob:66%
810/18
@RutgersRUTG
Win prob:83%
910/25
vsWisconsinWIS
Win prob:88%
1111/08
@IowaIOWA
Win prob:67%
1211/14
vsMinnesotaMINN
Win prob:84%
1311/22
vsUSCUSC
Win prob:60%
1411/29
@WashingtonWASH
Win prob:76%

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

OregonRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
9-0
2.0%
100.0%
8-1
14.7%
90.7%
7-2
29.9%
21.7%
6-3
29.9%
0.1%
5-4
16.6%
0%
4-5
5.6%
0%
3-6
1.1%
0%
2-7
0.1%
0%
1-8
0%
0%
0-9
0%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Oregon CCG Opponents

if Oregon makes the CCG

Penn StatePenn St
54.7%
Ohio StateOhio St
29.6%
USCUSC
8.0%
MichiganMichigan
5.0%
IndianaIndiana
2.6%

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

OregonThis Week's Impact

Game
OregonCCG OddsAway
OregonCCG OddsHome
KennesawKENN@IndianaIU
21.7%
(-0.2%)		21.9%
(+0.0%)
Florida IntlFIU@Penn StPSU
20.5%
(-1.4%)		21.9%
(+0.0%)
MichiganMICH@OklahomaOU
21.9%
(-0.0%)		21.9%
(+0.0%)
Ga SouthernGASO@USCUSC
21.4%
(-0.5%)		21.9%
(+0.0%)
UC DavisUCD@WashingtonWASH
21.9%
(+0.1%)		21.9%
(-0.0%)
AkronAKR@NebraskaNEB
21.8%
(-0.1%)		21.9%
(+0.0%)
IowaIOWA@Iowa StISU
21.8%
(-0.1%)		21.9%
(+0.1%)
Miami OHM-OH@RutgersRUTG
22.4%
(+0.5%)		21.6%
(-0.3%)
N IllinoisNIU@MarylandMD
21.6%
(-0.2%)		22.0%
(+0.1%)
IllinoisILL@DukeDUKE
22.0%
(+0.1%)		21.8%
(-0.1%)
Southern IllinoisSIU@PurduePUR
22.0%
(+0.2%)		21.9%
(-0.0%)
Oklahoma StOKST@OregonORE
22.3%
(+0.4%)		21.9%
(-0.0%)
Northwestern StateNWST@MinnesotaMINN
21.5%
(-0.3%)		21.9%
(+0.0%)
GramblingGRAM@Ohio StOSU
21.6%
(-0.3%)		21.9%
(+0.0%)
Western IllinoisWIU@NorthwesternNU
22.2%
(+0.4%)		21.8%
(-0.0%)
Boston CollegeBC@Michigan StMSU
21.9%
(+0.1%)		21.8%
(-0.1%)
MTSUMTSU@WisconsinWIS
21.4%
(-0.5%)		21.9%
(+0.1%)
UCLAUCLA@UNLVUNLV
21.7%
(-0.2%)		21.9%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

OregonLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Oregon CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
1.8%
Any 1 loss
90.8%
13.8%
Oregon St
100.0%
<0.1%
Oklahoma St
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa
99.3%
1.0%
Minnesota
98.0%
0.4%
Wisconsin
97.0%
0.3%
Washington
95.5%
0.6%
Indiana
94.3%
1.0%
Northwestern
93.9%
0.2%
Rutgers
91.2%
0.4%
USC
88.7%
1.2%
Penn St
88.6%
8.6%
Any 2 losses
24.4%
28.8%
IowaOklahoma St
100.0%
<0.1%
IndianaOklahoma St
100.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaOklahoma St
100.0%
<0.1%
IowaOregon St
100.0%
<0.1%
NorthwesternOregon St
100.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaOregon St
100.0%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StOregon St
100.0%
<0.1%
NorthwesternOklahoma St
100.0%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
Oregon StWashington
96.2%
<0.1%
IndianaOregon St
93.0%
<0.1%
Oregon StPenn St
92.5%
0.4%
Oregon StWisconsin
92.3%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StUSC
88.9%
<0.1%
Oregon StUSC
88.1%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StRutgers
87.5%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StWashington
87.5%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StPenn St
86.6%
0.3%
Oregon StRutgers
75.0%
<0.1%
NorthwesternRutgers
54.0%
<0.1%
IowaWisconsin
48.6%
0.1%
IowaNorthwestern
48.5%
0.1%
IowaWashington
48.1%
0.3%
WashingtonWisconsin
48.0%
<0.1%
NorthwesternWashington
47.3%
<0.1%
MinnesotaWashington
47.1%
0.1%
MinnesotaRutgers
46.3%
<0.1%
MinnesotaWisconsin
42.9%
<0.1%
RutgersWashington
42.4%
0.1%
IowaRutgers
42.2%
0.2%
IowaMinnesota
41.6%
0.2%
IndianaRutgers
39.7%
0.2%
RutgersWisconsin
39.1%
<0.1%
IndianaWashington
38.3%
0.3%
IndianaMinnesota
38.1%
0.2%
IndianaWisconsin
38.0%
0.1%
IndianaNorthwestern
37.8%
<0.1%
NorthwesternWisconsin
36.8%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNorthwestern
33.3%
<0.1%
IndianaIowa
30.8%
0.5%
MinnesotaUSC
26.8%
0.2%
IowaUSC
26.6%
0.6%
NorthwesternPenn St
24.5%
0.8%
USCWashington
24.5%
0.4%
RutgersUSC
24.4%
0.3%
Penn StRutgers
24.4%
1.7%
Penn StWashington
24.1%
2.7%
NorthwesternUSC
23.3%
0.1%
IowaPenn St
23.1%
4.3%
MinnesotaPenn St
22.4%
1.6%
Penn StWisconsin
20.5%
1.2%
IndianaUSC
20.1%
0.6%
USCWisconsin
19.1%
0.2%
IndianaPenn St
17.1%
4.5%
Penn StUSC
11.5%
5.6%
Any 3 losses
14.1%
3.4%
IowaNorthwesternOklahoma St
100.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaNorthwesternOregon St
100.0%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StOregon StUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
IowaOklahoma StOregon St
100.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaOklahoma StWashington
100.0%
<0.1%
IndianaOklahoma StOregon St
100.0%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StOregon StPenn St
92.9%
<0.1%
IndianaMinnesotaOklahoma St
75.0%
<0.1%
IowaMinnesotaOklahoma St
66.7%
<0.1%
NorthwesternOregon StRutgers
66.7%
<0.1%
IowaOregon StRutgers
66.7%
<0.1%
IndianaNorthwesternOklahoma St
66.7%
<0.1%
IndianaOregon StWashington
57.1%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StWashingtonWisconsin
50.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaOregon StWashington
50.0%
<0.1%
NorthwesternOklahoma StWisconsin
50.0%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StRutgersWashington
50.0%
<0.1%
Oregon StWashingtonWisconsin
50.0%
<0.1%
IowaOklahoma StWashington
46.7%
<0.1%
IndianaMinnesotaOregon St
45.5%
<0.1%
IndianaOregon StRutgers
45.5%
<0.1%
IowaOklahoma StRutgers
40.0%
<0.1%
NorthwesternOregon StPenn St
33.3%
<0.1%
MinnesotaOklahoma StRutgers
33.3%
<0.1%
Oregon StRutgersWashington
33.3%
<0.1%
NorthwesternOregon StUSC
33.3%
<0.1%
IowaOklahoma StWisconsin
33.3%
<0.1%
IndianaIowaOklahoma St
31.6%
<0.1%
Oregon StRutgersUSC
30.8%
<0.1%
IndianaIowaOregon St
30.0%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StRutgersUSC
30.0%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StUSCWisconsin
28.6%
<0.1%
Oregon StPenn StWisconsin
28.1%
<0.1%
IndianaOklahoma StWashington
26.7%
<0.1%
IndianaOklahoma StUSC
26.1%
<0.1%
Oregon StRutgersWisconsin
25.0%
<0.1%
IndianaOregon StWisconsin
25.0%
<0.1%
Oregon StPenn StRutgers
25.0%
<0.1%
Oregon StUSCWisconsin
25.0%
<0.1%
IowaOklahoma StPenn St
24.1%
0.2%
Oklahoma StPenn StWisconsin
23.7%
<0.1%
IowaMinnesotaOregon St
22.2%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StUSCWashington
22.2%
<0.1%
IowaOregon StPenn St
21.3%
0.2%
Oklahoma StPenn StWashington
21.3%
<0.1%
IndianaOklahoma StPenn St
21.2%
0.2%
NorthwesternOklahoma StPenn St
20.9%
<0.1%
IndianaOregon StUSC
20.7%
<0.1%
IowaOregon StUSC
20.7%
<0.1%
MinnesotaOregon StPenn St
20.0%
<0.1%
IndianaOklahoma StRutgers
20.0%
<0.1%
MinnesotaOklahoma StUSC
20.0%
<0.1%
IowaOklahoma StUSC
18.2%
<0.1%
Oregon StPenn StWashington
17.9%
0.1%
MinnesotaOklahoma StPenn St
17.7%
<0.1%
IndianaOregon StPenn St
17.3%
0.2%
Oklahoma StPenn StRutgers
17.2%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StPenn StUSC
12.8%
0.2%
Oregon StUSCWashington
11.8%
<0.1%
Oregon StPenn StUSC
9.4%
0.2%
MinnesotaOregon StUSC
9.1%
<0.1%
IowaOregon StWashington
9.1%
<0.1%
IowaNorthwesternRutgers
5.9%
<0.1%
NorthwesternRutgersUSC
5.6%
<0.1%
IndianaMinnesotaNorthwestern
4.5%
<0.1%
MinnesotaUSCWisconsin
3.5%
<0.1%
IowaNorthwesternWashington
3.1%
<0.1%
IowaWashingtonWisconsin
2.6%
<0.1%
Penn StRutgersWashington
0.8%
0.5%
MinnesotaPenn StRutgers
0.6%
0.3%
NorthwesternPenn StRutgers
0.6%
0.2%
Any 4 losses
3.7%
0.2%
MinnesotaOklahoma StOregon StUSC
100.0%
<0.1%
IowaOklahoma StOregon StWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StOregon StPenn StRutgers
100.0%
<0.1%
IndianaOklahoma StOregon StWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
IowaOklahoma StOregon StRutgers
100.0%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StOregon StPenn StWisconsin
50.0%
<0.1%
IndianaMinnesotaOregon StWashington
50.0%
<0.1%
IndianaOklahoma StOregon StUSC
33.3%
<0.1%
MinnesotaOklahoma StOregon StPenn St
25.0%
<0.1%
IndianaOklahoma StOregon StPenn St
20.0%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StOregon StPenn StUSC
20.0%
<0.1%
IowaOklahoma StOregon StPenn St
10.0%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StPenn StRutgersWashington
4.5%
<0.1%
IndianaMinnesotaOregon StPenn St
2.5%
<0.1%
IndianaOklahoma StPenn StWashington
2.1%
<0.1%
IndianaOklahoma StPenn StUSC
1.0%
0.1%

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com

OregonCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1Week 2

Data from 2025-09-02 • SportsSimulate.com