Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
15.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/30 | W43-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:90% | |
| 3 | 9/13 | Win prob:76% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:66% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:65% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:48% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:40% | |
| 9 | 10/25 | Win prob:60% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:77% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:51% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:53% | |
| 14 | 11/28 | Win prob:42% |
Data from 2025-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.4% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 3.4% | 99.2% |
| 7-2 | 11.3% | 73.8% |
| 6-3 | 22.0% | 14.5% |
| 5-4 | 26.8% | 0.0% |
| 4-5 | 21.1% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 10.8% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 3.4% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.6% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-02
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 15.6% (+0.2%) | 15.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 15.2% (-0.2%) | 15.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 15.2% (-0.2%) | 15.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 15.7% (+0.3%) | 15.1% (-0.3%) | |
| 15.4% (+0.1%) | 15.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 15.7% (+0.4%) | 15.3% (-0.0%) | |
| 15.5% (+0.1%) | 15.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 15.2% (-0.2%) | 15.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 15.3% (-0.1%) | 15.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 15.4% (+0.1%) | 15.4% (-0.0%) | |
| 14.6% (-0.8%) | 15.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 15.4% (-0.0%) | 15.4% (+0.0%) | |
| 15.4% (+0.0%) | 15.3% (-0.1%) | |
| 15.3% (-0.1%) | 15.4% (+0.1%) | |
| 15.4% (+0.0%) | 15.4% (-0.0%) |
Data from 2025-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.3%Any 1 loss
99.1%
2.5%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.5%
0.4%99.5%
0.2%99.0%
0.3%98.8%
0.2%98.6%
0.4%98.1%
0.3%Any 2 losses
76.2%
8.7%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.8%
<0.1%97.7%
0.1%96.9%
<0.1%95.6%
<0.1%92.2%
<0.1%88.5%
<0.1%86.5%
0.1%86.0%
0.2%85.2%
<0.1%85.2%
0.1%84.0%
0.1%83.2%
0.1%81.2%
0.3%80.8%
0.2%80.0%
<0.1%79.2%
<0.1%77.7%
0.1%77.4%
0.2%77.2%
0.4%75.9%
<0.1%75.5%
0.2%74.8%
0.1%74.8%
0.1%74.2%
0.4%73.6%
0.3%73.4%
0.2%72.4%
0.6%71.5%
0.3%71.5%
0.2%71.4%
0.1%71.4%
0.4%70.9%
0.4%70.9%
0.2%70.1%
0.1%66.8%
0.3%64.1%
0.2%63.1%
0.4%62.2%
0.5%62.0%
0.3%Any 3 losses
25.8%
18.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.3%
<0.1%91.1%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.1%
<0.1%88.6%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.5%
<0.1%85.3%
<0.1%85.3%
<0.1%83.9%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.7%
<0.1%79.6%
<0.1%79.5%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.7%
0.2%76.6%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%76.0%
<0.1%75.9%
0.1%75.8%
0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.4%
<0.1%73.8%
<0.1%73.2%
0.1%73.1%
<0.1%73.1%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.1%
0.1%70.6%
0.1%70.2%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.0%
0.1%68.5%
<0.1%67.9%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.8%
<0.1%65.6%
<0.1%64.8%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%61.5%
0.2%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.3%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%50.8%
<0.1%32.6%
<0.1%26.4%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.9%
0.2%22.9%
<0.1%22.8%
0.1%22.7%
<0.1%22.4%
<0.1%21.9%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%21.5%
0.1%20.8%
0.2%20.5%
0.2%20.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.8%
0.2%19.4%
<0.1%18.8%
0.1%18.4%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.8%
0.5%17.6%
0.1%17.5%
0.3%17.3%
0.1%17.2%
0.3%17.1%
0.1%17.1%
0.3%16.9%
0.2%16.7%
<0.1%16.5%
<0.1%16.3%
0.3%16.2%
0.1%16.1%
0.3%16.1%
0.1%16.1%
<0.1%16.0%
0.1%15.7%
<0.1%15.3%
0.1%15.2%
<0.1%15.2%
0.2%15.1%
0.2%14.9%
0.1%14.7%
0.2%14.7%
<0.1%14.4%
0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.2%
0.4%14.2%
0.1%14.1%
<0.1%14.0%
<0.1%14.0%
0.2%13.6%
0.2%13.5%
0.2%13.5%
<0.1%13.3%
0.1%13.2%
0.2%13.2%
<0.1%13.2%
0.2%12.8%
0.4%12.7%
0.4%12.6%
<0.1%12.6%
0.2%12.5%
<0.1%12.3%
0.3%12.2%
<0.1%12.1%
0.4%11.9%
0.1%11.9%
0.3%11.7%
0.5%11.5%
0.4%11.4%
0.3%11.4%
0.4%11.3%
0.3%11.1%
0.2%10.3%
<0.1%9.7%
0.6%9.3%
0.2%9.3%
0.3%9.2%
0.4%9.2%
0.1%8.5%
0.1%8.0%
0.1%7.4%
0.2%Any 4 losses
17.7%
6.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.9%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%27.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.2%
<0.1%24.0%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.3%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%23.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.7%
<0.1%20.7%
<0.1%20.6%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.6%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.7%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.5%
<0.1%17.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%15.8%
0.2%15.8%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.9%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.6%
<0.1%14.5%
0.2%14.4%
0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%13.5%
<0.1%13.5%
<0.1%13.4%
0.2%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.2%
0.1%13.0%
<0.1%13.0%
0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.3%
0.1%12.3%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.9%
0.2%11.7%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.6%
0.1%10.4%
<0.1%10.4%
0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.2%
0.1%10.2%
0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.9%
<0.1%8.7%
0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-02