Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
6.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
Schedule & Results
| Week | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8/28 | W17-10 | |
| 2 | 9/06 | Win prob:90% | |
| 4 | 9/20 | Win prob:75% | |
| 5 | 9/27 | Win prob:28% | |
| 6 | 10/04 | Win prob:47% | |
| 7 | 10/11 | Win prob:53% | |
| 8 | 10/18 | Win prob:69% | |
| 10 | 11/01 | Win prob:40% | |
| 11 | 11/07 | Win prob:79% | |
| 12 | 11/15 | Win prob:40% | |
| 13 | 11/22 | Win prob:83% | |
| 14 | 11/29 | Win prob:30% |
Data from 2025-09-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.2% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 1.6% | 95.8% |
| 7-2 | 7.6% | 54.3% |
| 6-3 | 18.7% | 3.7% |
| 5-4 | 27.5% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 25.3% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 14.1% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 4.4% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.7% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2025-09-02
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2025-09-02
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 6.6% (+0.1%) | 6.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 6.8% (+0.2%) | 6.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 6.6% (+0.0%) | 6.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 6.6% (+0.1%) | 6.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 6.7% (+0.2%) | 6.5% (-0.1%) | |
| 6.3% (-0.3%) | 6.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 6.5% (-0.1%) | 6.6% (+0.1%) | |
| 6.4% (-0.1%) | 6.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 6.2% (-0.3%) | 6.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 6.6% (+0.1%) | 6.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 6.4% (-0.1%) | 6.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 6.5% (+0.0%) | 6.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 6.5% (+0.0%) | 6.5% (-0.0%) | |
| 6.5% (-0.0%) | 6.5% (+0.0%) | |
| 6.6% (+0.1%) | 6.5% (-0.0%) |
Data from 2025-09-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.1%Any 1 loss
96.2%
1.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.0%
0.3%97.0%
0.1%96.2%
<0.1%95.9%
0.1%95.9%
0.1%95.9%
0.1%95.1%
<0.1%94.8%
0.3%94.1%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
57.9%
5.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.8%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%94.0%
<0.1%94.0%
<0.1%88.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.0%
0.1%71.8%
<0.1%68.5%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.0%
<0.1%65.7%
<0.1%64.5%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%63.9%
<0.1%63.3%
0.2%62.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%60.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.6%
0.1%59.4%
0.1%59.1%
0.2%58.2%
0.1%53.7%
0.2%53.4%
0.1%52.5%
0.2%52.0%
0.4%50.9%
0.4%50.5%
0.6%48.1%
0.3%48.1%
0.4%47.5%
0.2%46.0%
0.4%43.1%
0.3%Any 3 losses
11.8%
14.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.1%
<0.1%65.8%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%64.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.5%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%57.2%
0.1%57.1%
0.1%56.5%
<0.1%56.4%
<0.1%56.0%
<0.1%56.0%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.6%
<0.1%53.2%
<0.1%52.1%
0.1%50.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.6%
0.1%48.2%
0.2%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.2%
0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.7%
<0.1%38.1%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.4%
0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%6.0%
0.2%5.2%
0.6%5.1%
0.2%4.9%
0.2%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
0.2%4.6%
0.3%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
0.1%4.2%
0.1%4.2%
0.5%4.1%
0.3%4.1%
<0.1%4.1%
0.4%4.0%
0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
0.1%3.8%
0.2%3.8%
<0.1%3.7%
0.1%3.4%
0.6%3.4%
<0.1%3.4%
<0.1%3.3%
0.4%3.2%
0.3%3.2%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
0.4%3.0%
0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
0.1%2.7%
0.1%2.7%
0.2%2.6%
0.4%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.2%
0.4%2.0%
0.9%1.8%
0.9%1.8%
0.2%1.8%
0.1%1.7%
0.7%1.7%
0.3%1.5%
0.5%Any 4 losses
5.9%
5.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.0%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.9%
0.2%4.9%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.8%
0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.1%
0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.4%
<0.1%3.4%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.6%
0.1%2.5%
0.2%2.5%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
0.3%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
0.2%2.3%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.0%
0.3%1.9%
0.2%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.5%
0.1%1.2%
0.3%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%Data from 2025-09-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2025-09-02