TempleOwls
1-1 T3rd (0-0) in AAC
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
5.1%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Temple's probability of making the American Athletic Conference Championship Game?
Temple has a 5.1% chance to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Temple's American Athletic Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | W38-14 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | L9-27 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:28% | |
| 4 | 9/25 | Win prob:48% | |
| 5 | 10/03 | Win prob:23% | |
| 6 | 10/10 | Win prob:73% | |
| 7 | 10/17 | Win prob:86% | |
| 9 | 10/31 | Win prob:36% | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:39% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:84% | |
| 12 | 11/19 | Win prob:83% | |
| 13 | 11/27 | Win prob:24% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.2% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 2.6% | 90.9% |
| 6-2 | 11.7% | 21.2% |
| 5-3 | 26.5% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 31.9% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 20.1% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 6.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.9% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 5.1% (+0.0%) | 5.0% (-0.0%) | ||
| 5.1% (+0.1%) | 5.0% (-0.0%) | ||
| 5.0% (-0.0%) | 5.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 5.0% (-0.0%) | 5.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 5.0% (-0.0%) | 5.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 5.1% (+0.0%) | 5.0% (-0.0%) | ||
| 5.0% (-0.0%) | 5.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 5.1% (+0.1%) | 5.0% (-0.0%) | ||
| 5.0% (+0.0%) | 5.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 5.0% (-0.1%) | 5.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 5.0% (-0.0%) | 5.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 4.9% (-0.2%) | 5.1% (+0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
93.1%
0.7%
100.0%
0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
94.7%
<0.1%
94.1%
<0.1%
93.9%
<0.1%
93.5%
<0.1%
93.1%
<0.1%
91.4%
<0.1%
90.1%
0.1%
89.7%
0.1%Any 2 losses
49.3%
3.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%94.6%
0.1%94.2%
<0.1%94.1%
0.2%93.5%
<0.1%92.4%
0.2%92.0%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.6%
<0.1%90.2%
<0.1%90.1%
<0.1%89.6%
0.4%87.7%
0.4%86.7%
<0.1%86.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.6%
<0.1%39.4%
<0.1%39.2%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.0%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%34.9%
<0.1%34.8%
<0.1%34.0%
<0.1%31.9%
<0.1%31.1%
<0.1%30.6%
<0.1%29.3%
<0.1%29.2%
<0.1%28.6%
0.1%28.2%
<0.1%27.4%
<0.1%25.4%
<0.1%23.9%
0.2%23.8%
<0.1%23.7%
0.1%22.3%
<0.1%21.0%
0.2%20.1%
0.3%18.5%
0.2%18.2%
0.3%13.9%
0.5%Any 3 losses
25.4%
7.7%96.9%
<0.1%94.6%
<0.1%93.9%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%92.6%
<0.1%91.4%
<0.1%91.1%
0.1%89.7%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.3%
<0.1%43.2%
<0.1%42.5%
<0.1%40.1%
<0.1%38.0%
<0.1%37.8%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.3%
<0.1%36.6%
<0.1%35.9%
<0.1%35.1%
<0.1%34.6%
<0.1%34.1%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.8%
<0.1%32.6%
<0.1%32.6%
<0.1%32.5%
<0.1%31.4%
<0.1%30.8%
0.2%30.5%
<0.1%30.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.8%
<0.1%29.0%
<0.1%28.8%
0.3%28.6%
<0.1%28.3%
<0.1%27.9%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%27.2%
<0.1%27.1%
<0.1%25.6%
<0.1%25.2%
0.2%24.8%
<0.1%24.0%
<0.1%24.0%
<0.1%23.5%
0.6%22.6%
<0.1%22.5%
0.4%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.6%
0.6%20.0%
0.7%18.9%
0.1%18.4%
0.4%18.1%
0.1%17.8%
<0.1%17.7%
0.7%17.6%
<0.1%14.3%
0.2%13.6%
1.2%1.7%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%0.6%
<0.1%0.6%
<0.1%0.6%
<0.1%0.5%
<0.1%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17