FL Atlantic

Florida AtlanticOwls

0-0 T1st (0-0) in AAC

Data from 2026-08-26

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

2.5%

Based on 100,000 simulations

What is Florida Atlantic's probability of making the American Athletic Conference Championship Game?

Florida Atlantic has a 2.5% chance to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Florida Atlantic's American Athletic Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

FL AtlanticSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
9/05
@FloridaFLA
Win prob:5%
9/12
vsNavyNAVY
Win prob:32%
9/19
vsFlorida IntlFIU
Win prob:59%
9/26
@ULMULM
Win prob:63%
10/03
vsTexas SouthernTXSO
Win prob:90%
10/17
@ArmyARMY
Win prob:32%
10/24
vsRiceRICE
Win prob:61%
10/29
@North TexasUNT
Win prob:33%
11/05
vsUT San AntonioUTSA
Win prob:42%
11/14
@TulsaTLSA
Win prob:39%
11/21
vsSouth FloridaUSF
Win prob:32%
11/27
@East CarolinaECU
Win prob:22%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

FL AtlanticRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
0.0%
100.0%
7-1
0.4%
98.7%
6-2
2.4%
66.1%
5-3
9.0%
5.9%
4-4
20.3%
0%
3-5
29.1%
0%
2-6
24.7%
0%
1-7
11.7%
0%
0-8
2.3%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely FL Atlantic CCG Opponents

if FL Atlantic makes the CCG

TulaneTulane
25.1%
NavyNavy
22.1%
South FloridaSouth Florida
20.6%
East CarolinaEast Carolina
20.1%
MemphisMemphis
12.1%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

FL AtlanticThis Week's Impact

Game
FL AtlanticCCG OddsAway
FL AtlanticCCG OddsHome
MemphisMEM@UNLVUNLV
2.5%
(-0.0%)		2.5%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

FL AtlanticLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
FL Atlantic CCG Probability
Likelihood
Any 1 loss
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
92.5%
0.2%
FloridaNavy
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyEast Carolina
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaNorth Texas
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFlorida
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNorth Texas
100.0%
<0.1%
TulsaUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFlorida
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaRice
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaFlorida Intl
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlULM
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaULM
100.0%
<0.1%
South FloridaTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
RiceTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFlorida Intl
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyNorth Texas
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlNorth Texas
100.0%
<0.1%
NavySouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasRice
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaTulsa
66.7%
<0.1%
East CarolinaSouth Florida
40.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNavy
40.0%
<0.1%
Any 3 losses
71.2%
1.0%
East CarolinaULMUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFloridaULM
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaFlorida IntlTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaNavyULM
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaFlorida Intl
100.0%
<0.1%
RiceTexas SouthernTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaNorth TexasRice
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaFlorida IntlNavy
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaRiceSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaNorth TexasULM
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaFlorida IntlRice
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaULMUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFlorida IntlTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaFlorida IntlULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlNorth TexasULM
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaFlorida IntlNorth Texas
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFlorida IntlTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaNavyTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyTulsaULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlTulsaUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaSouth FloridaULM
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyULMUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaFlorida IntlUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaULM
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaTexas SouthernTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlRiceSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaRiceULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlNavyULM
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFloridaFlorida Intl
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasULMUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlNavyNorth Texas
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyRiceUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFlorida IntlULM
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFlorida IntlRice
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaTulsaULM
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFloridaTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaFlorida IntlTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaSouth FloridaTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaFlorida Intl
100.0%
<0.1%
NavySouth FloridaULM
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasTulsaULM
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyNorth TexasULM
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFloridaTulsa
92.9%
<0.1%
FloridaFlorida IntlSouth Florida
91.7%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaULM
89.3%
<0.1%
ArmyFloridaRice
88.9%
<0.1%
FloridaRiceTulsa
87.5%
<0.1%
FloridaNavyUT San Antonio
78.3%
<0.1%
FloridaNavyTulsa
78.1%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaTulsa
76.7%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaRice
76.5%
<0.1%
ArmyFloridaSouth Florida
75.8%
<0.1%
ArmyFloridaUT San Antonio
75.0%
<0.1%
FloridaNorth TexasTulsa
73.9%
<0.1%
FloridaNorth TexasSouth Florida
73.5%
<0.1%
FloridaNavySouth Florida
73.0%
<0.1%
FloridaNorth TexasUT San Antonio
70.6%
<0.1%
FloridaTulsaUT San Antonio
70.6%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaUT San Antonio
68.8%
<0.1%
ArmyFloridaNavy
67.6%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaFlorida
67.2%
<0.1%
ArmyFlorida IntlSouth Florida
66.7%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNavyNorth Texas
66.7%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFlorida IntlSouth Florida
66.7%
<0.1%
Florida IntlSouth FloridaTulsa
66.7%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaNorth Texas
65.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFloridaNorth Texas
63.6%
<0.1%
FloridaSouth FloridaTulsa
59.5%
<0.1%
FloridaSouth FloridaUT San Antonio
58.8%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaSouth Florida
56.1%
<0.1%
FloridaRiceUT San Antonio
55.6%
<0.1%
FloridaNavyNorth Texas
54.8%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaNavy
51.1%
<0.1%
East CarolinaTulsaULM
50.0%
<0.1%
ArmyNavyULM
50.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNavyULM
50.0%
<0.1%
NavyRiceSouth Florida
50.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFlorida IntlNavy
50.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFlorida IntlUT San Antonio
50.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlNorth TexasSouth Florida
50.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFlorida IntlNorth Texas
50.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlNavyTulsa
50.0%
<0.1%
FloridaNavyRice
37.5%
<0.1%
Florida IntlSouth FloridaUT San Antonio
33.3%
<0.1%
North TexasRiceTulsa
33.3%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaUT San Antonio
33.3%
<0.1%
ArmyRiceSouth Florida
33.3%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNavyUT San Antonio
28.6%
<0.1%
East CarolinaTulsaUT San Antonio
16.7%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNavyTulsa
14.3%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNavySouth Florida
7.7%
<0.1%
Any 4 losses
24.0%
4.0%
FloridaFlorida IntlULMUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaFlorida IntlSouth FloridaULM
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaFlorida IntlNavyULM
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFlorida IntlNorth TexasULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlNavyRiceULM
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaNorth TexasSouth FloridaTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaFlorida IntlNavyTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaFlorida IntlTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaFlorida IntlTulsaULM
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaSouth FloridaTexas SouthernULM
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaFlorida IntlNorth TexasTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaSouth FloridaTexas SouthernULM
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaFlorida IntlNorth TexasULM
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaFlorida IntlTexas SouthernTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaRiceTexas SouthernULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlRiceTulsaULM
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFloridaFlorida IntlULM
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaTexas SouthernULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlNavySouth FloridaULM
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaTexas SouthernULM
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaNorth TexasRiceTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasRiceTexas SouthernULM
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaRiceULMUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaTexas SouthernTulsaULM
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFlorida IntlTexas SouthernTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFlorida IntlNavyRice
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlNorth TexasULMUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFlorida IntlTulsaULM
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaNavyTexas SouthernTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaFlorida IntlSouth FloridaTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlNavyRiceUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaFlorida IntlRiceTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaFlorida IntlULM
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFlorida IntlNavyTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaTexas SouthernUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlSouth FloridaTulsaULM
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFloridaNorth TexasTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlNavyNorth TexasULM
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaFlorida IntlRiceULM
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFlorida IntlSouth FloridaULM
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFloridaRiceTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlRiceSouth FloridaULM
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFlorida IntlNavyULM
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFloridaTexas SouthernTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
NavyTulsaULMUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaFlorida IntlULM
92.3%
<0.1%
FloridaRiceTulsaULM
88.9%
<0.1%
FloridaFlorida IntlNorth TexasTulsa
87.5%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaNavyTexas Southern
87.5%
<0.1%
FloridaSouth FloridaTulsaULM
85.7%
<0.1%
FloridaRiceSouth FloridaULM
85.7%
<0.1%
ArmyFloridaULMUT San Antonio
84.6%
<0.1%
FloridaNavyTulsaULM
83.3%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaTexas SouthernTulsa
83.3%
<0.1%
FloridaFlorida IntlNorth TexasUT San Antonio
82.3%
<0.1%
ArmyFloridaFlorida IntlTulsa
81.8%
<0.1%
ArmyFloridaFlorida IntlNorth Texas
80.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFloridaRiceULM
80.0%
<0.1%
FloridaFlorida IntlNorth TexasRice
80.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaRiceULM
77.8%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaFlorida IntlNorth Texas
76.7%
<0.1%
FloridaNorth TexasRiceULM
75.0%
<0.1%
FloridaFlorida IntlTulsaUT San Antonio
75.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFloridaFlorida IntlUT San Antonio
72.2%
<0.1%
FloridaFlorida IntlRiceSouth Florida
71.4%
<0.1%
FloridaNorth TexasULMUT San Antonio
71.4%
<0.1%
FloridaNorth TexasTulsaULM
71.4%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaFloridaFlorida Intl
71.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaFlorida IntlTulsa
71.0%
<0.1%
FloridaFlorida IntlNorth TexasSouth Florida
69.2%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaNorth TexasULM
66.7%
<0.1%
FloridaSouth FloridaULMUT San Antonio
66.7%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaFloridaTexas Southern
66.7%
<0.1%
FloridaFlorida IntlNavyUT San Antonio
66.7%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaTulsaULM
66.7%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaFlorida IntlRice
66.7%
<0.1%
FloridaFlorida IntlNavyRice
66.7%
<0.1%
ArmyFloridaFlorida IntlRice
66.7%
<0.1%
Florida IntlNorth TexasSouth FloridaULM
66.7%
<0.1%
ArmyFlorida IntlTulsaULM
66.7%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaFlorida IntlSouth Florida
65.8%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaFlorida IntlUT San Antonio
65.5%
<0.1%
ArmyFloridaTulsaULM
64.3%
<0.1%
ArmyFloridaSouth FloridaULM
64.0%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaFloridaULM
63.6%
<0.1%
FloridaNavyNorth TexasULM
63.2%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaNavyULM
61.5%
<0.1%
FloridaTulsaULMUT San Antonio
61.5%
<0.1%
FloridaFlorida IntlRiceUT San Antonio
60.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFloridaSouth FloridaTexas Southern
60.0%
<0.1%
FloridaNavyULMUT San Antonio
60.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFlorida IntlNorth TexasUT San Antonio
60.0%
<0.1%
FloridaFlorida IntlNavyNorth Texas
59.3%
<0.1%
ArmyFloridaNorth TexasULM
57.1%
<0.1%
ArmyFloridaFlorida IntlNavy
57.1%
<0.1%
FloridaNavyNorth TexasTexas Southern
57.1%
<0.1%
FloridaFlorida IntlSouth FloridaTulsa
57.1%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaNorth TexasTexas Southern
57.1%
<0.1%
FloridaFlorida IntlNavyTulsa
54.5%
<0.1%
FloridaFlorida IntlSouth FloridaUT San Antonio
53.8%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaFlorida IntlNavy
52.6%
<0.1%
FloridaNavySouth FloridaULM
50.0%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaTexas SouthernTulsa
50.0%
<0.1%
FloridaNorth TexasSouth FloridaULM
50.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaSouth FloridaTexas Southern
50.0%
<0.1%
FloridaSouth FloridaTexas SouthernUT San Antonio
50.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFloridaNavyTexas Southern
50.0%
<0.1%
FloridaNorth TexasTexas SouthernUT San Antonio
50.0%
<0.1%
FloridaNavyRiceULM
50.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFlorida IntlNorth TexasTulsa
50.0%
<0.1%
FloridaTexas SouthernTulsaUT San Antonio
50.0%
<0.1%
FloridaRiceTexas SouthernUT San Antonio
50.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFloridaNavyULM
47.8%
<0.1%
FloridaFlorida IntlNavySouth Florida
47.6%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaSouth FloridaULM
47.4%
<0.1%
ArmyFloridaFlorida IntlSouth Florida
44.4%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaULMUT San Antonio
42.3%
<0.1%
ArmyFlorida IntlTulsaUT San Antonio
33.3%
<0.1%
FloridaSouth FloridaTexas SouthernTulsa
33.3%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNorth TexasTulsaULM
33.3%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFlorida IntlNavySouth Florida
25.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFloridaNavyRice
20.7%
<0.1%
FloridaNavyRiceUT San Antonio
18.8%
<0.1%
FloridaRiceTulsaUT San Antonio
16.7%
<0.1%
FloridaNorth TexasTulsaUT San Antonio
14.3%
<0.1%
ArmyFloridaRiceTulsa
14.3%
<0.1%
FloridaRiceSouth FloridaUT San Antonio
14.3%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaFlorida IntlSouth Florida
14.3%
<0.1%
ArmyFloridaTulsaUT San Antonio
13.6%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaRiceTulsa
12.9%
<0.1%
ArmyFloridaNorth TexasTulsa
12.8%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaFlorida IntlNorth Texas
12.5%
<0.1%
ArmyFloridaRiceSouth Florida
11.8%
<0.1%
ArmyFloridaSouth FloridaTulsa
10.9%
<0.1%
FloridaNorth TexasRiceSouth Florida
10.5%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaNorth TexasRice
10.3%
<0.1%
ArmyFloridaSouth FloridaUT San Antonio
9.4%
<0.1%
FloridaNavyNorth TexasUT San Antonio
9.4%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaFloridaUT San Antonio
9.3%
<0.1%
ArmyFloridaNorth TexasUT San Antonio
9.3%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaNorth TexasTulsa
9.1%
<0.1%
ArmyFloridaRiceUT San Antonio
9.1%
<0.1%
FloridaNavySouth FloridaTulsa
8.9%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaNavyNorth Texas
8.7%
0.1%
ArmyFloridaNorth TexasRice
8.3%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaFloridaRice
8.3%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaSouth FloridaUT San Antonio
7.9%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaNorth TexasUT San Antonio
7.4%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaTulsaUT San Antonio
7.3%
<0.1%
FloridaNavySouth FloridaUT San Antonio
7.1%
<0.1%
FloridaNorth TexasRiceTulsa
7.1%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaNorth TexasSouth Florida
7.1%
0.1%
ArmyFloridaNavyUT San Antonio
6.8%
<0.1%
FloridaNavyNorth TexasSouth Florida
6.7%
<0.1%
FloridaNavyTulsaUT San Antonio
6.7%
<0.1%
FloridaNavyNorth TexasRice
6.7%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaFloridaNorth Texas
6.6%
0.1%
ArmyFloridaNavyTulsa
6.5%
<0.1%
ArmyFloridaNavyNorth Texas
5.7%
<0.1%
FloridaNorth TexasSouth FloridaTulsa
5.4%
<0.1%
FloridaNavyRiceTulsa
4.8%
<0.1%
ArmyFloridaNorth TexasSouth Florida
4.7%
<0.1%
FloridaNorth TexasSouth FloridaUT San Antonio
4.5%
<0.1%
FloridaNavyNorth TexasTulsa
4.4%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaRiceUT San Antonio
4.2%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaFloridaSouth Florida
4.1%
0.1%
FloridaNavyRiceSouth Florida
3.7%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaNavyRice
3.6%
<0.1%
FloridaSouth FloridaTulsaUT San Antonio
3.5%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaNavyUT San Antonio
3.4%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaSouth FloridaTulsa
3.3%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaFloridaNavy
2.8%
0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaNavySouth Florida
2.6%
0.1%
East CarolinaFloridaNavyTulsa
2.5%
<0.1%
ArmyFloridaNavySouth Florida
1.3%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaFloridaTulsa
1.1%
<0.1%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com