FL Atlantic

Florida AtlanticOwls

5-3 T5th (2-2) in AAC

Data from 2026-11-02

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.2%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Florida Atlantic's probability of making the American Athletic Conference Championship Game?

Florida Atlantic has a 0.2% chance to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Florida Atlantic's American Athletic Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

What does Florida Atlantic need to do to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game?

A perfect run to the end of the season puts Florida Atlantic's American Athletic Conference Championship Game odds at 44.7%; even one more loss drops that to 1.1%.

What is the biggest game this week for Florida Atlantic's American Athletic Conference Championship Game odds?

Florida Atlantic's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating UTSA would put its American Athletic Conference Championship Game odds at 0.8%, while a loss would drop them to -.

FL AtlanticSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
@FloridaFLA
L21-66
29/12
vsNavyNAVY
W38-30
39/19
vsFlorida IntlFIU
W16-10
49/26
@ULMULM
W45-17
510/03
vsTexas SouthernTXSO
W66-10
710/17
@ArmyARMY
L24-56
810/24
vsRiceRICE
W51-49
910/29
@North TexasUNT
L41-48
1011/05
vsUT San AntonioUTSA
Win prob:24%
1111/14
@TulsaTLSA
Win prob:23%
1211/21
vsSouth FloridaUSF
Win prob:31%
1311/27
@East CarolinaECU
Win prob:22%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

FL AtlanticRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
6-2
0.4%
44.7%
5-3
4.5%
0.8%
4-4
20.9%
0%
3-5
42.4%
0%
2-6
31.8%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible FL Atlantic CCG Opponents

if FL Atlantic makes the CCG

UNTNorth Texas
73.7%
UTSAUT San Antonio
21.1%
MEMMemphis
5.3%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

FL AtlanticThis Week's Impact

Game
FL AtlanticCCG OddsAway Wins
FL AtlanticCCG OddsHome Wins
Thu, Nov 5
UT San AntonioUTSA@FL AtlanticFAU
0.0%
(-0.2%)		0.8%
(+0.6%)
Fri, Nov 6
South FloridaUSF@East CarolinaECU
0.2%
(-0.0%)		0.2%
(+0.0%)
Sat, Nov 7
TulsaTLSA@TulaneTULN
0.2%
(+0.0%)		0.2%
(-0.0%)
CharlotteCLT@UABUAB
0.2%
(+0.0%)		0.2%
(+0.0%)
TempleTEM@NavyNAVY
0.2%
(-0.0%)		0.2%
(+0.0%)
RiceRICE@North TexasUNT
0.3%
(+0.1%)		0.2%
(+0.0%)
Air ForceAF@ArmyARMY
0.2%
(+0.0%)		0.2%
(+0.0%)

Best Winner Combination for FL Atlantic

TulsaTulsaRiceRiceNavyNavyEast CarolinaEast CarolinaFL AtlanticFlorida Atlantic

CCG: 1.2% • Scenario: 0.2%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for FL Atlantic

FL AtlanticFlorida Atlantic

CCG: 0.8% • Scenario: 23.7%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

FL AtlanticLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
FL Atlantic CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
44.7%
0.4%
Any 1 loss
1.1%
2.5%
Tulsa
1.5%
1.2%
East Carolina
0.7%
1.3%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

FL AtlanticCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%PreseasonWeek 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com