FL Atlantic

Florida AtlanticOwls

1-1 T1st (1-0) in AAC

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

1.3%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Florida Atlantic's probability of making the American Athletic Conference Championship Game?

Florida Atlantic has a 1.3% chance to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Florida Atlantic's American Athletic Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

FL AtlanticSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
@FloridaFLA
L21-66
29/12
vsNavyNAVY
W38-30
39/19
vsFlorida IntlFIU
Win prob:53%
49/26
@ULMULM
Win prob:79%
510/03
vsTexas SouthernTXSO
Win prob:90%
710/17
@ArmyARMY
Win prob:19%
810/24
vsRiceRICE
Win prob:70%
910/29
@North TexasUNT
Win prob:12%
1011/05
vsUT San AntonioUTSA
Win prob:35%
1111/14
@TulsaTLSA
Win prob:20%
1211/21
vsSouth FloridaUSF
Win prob:24%
1311/27
@East CarolinaECU
Win prob:22%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

FL AtlanticRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
0.0%
100.0%
7-1
0.1%
98.4%
6-2
1.5%
61.5%
5-3
7.5%
3.1%
4-4
22.1%
0%
3-5
35.3%
0%
2-6
27.0%
0%
1-7
6.5%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible FL Atlantic CCG Opponents

if FL Atlantic makes the CCG

USFSouth Florida
29.4%
UNTNorth Texas
20.6%
MEMMemphis
13.5%
TULNTulane
10.3%
TLSATulsa
6.3%
UTSAUT San Antonio
6.3%
ECUEast Carolina
5.6%
NAVYNavy
3.2%
ARMYArmy
3.2%
TEMTemple
1.6%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

FL AtlanticThis Week's Impact

Game
FL AtlanticCCG OddsAway Wins
FL AtlanticCCG OddsHome Wins
Sat, Sep 19
North TexasUNT@Texas StTXST
1.3%
(+0.0%)		1.3%
(+0.0%)
TulaneTULN@Kansas StKSU
1.3%
(-0.0%)		1.3%
(+0.0%)
TempleTEM@ToledoTOL
1.3%
(+0.0%)		1.3%
(+0.0%)
CharlotteCLT@Appalachian StAPP
1.3%
(-0.0%)		1.3%
(+0.0%)
East CarolinaECU@Old DominionODU
1.3%
(+0.0%)		1.3%
(-0.0%)
Florida IntlFIU@FL AtlanticFAU
1.3%
(+0.0%)		1.3%
(-0.0%)
Delaware StateDSU@South FloridaUSF
1.3%
(+0.0%)		1.3%
(+0.0%)
UT MartinUTM@MemphisMEM
1.2%
(-0.1%)		1.3%
(+0.0%)
W MichiganWMU@RiceRICE
1.3%
(+0.0%)		1.3%
(+0.0%)
East Texas A&METAM@TulsaTLSA
1.3%
(-0.0%)		1.3%
(+0.0%)
UABUAB@LouisianaUL
1.3%
(+0.0%)		1.3%
(+0.0%)
UT San AntonioUTSA@TexasTEX
1.4%
(+0.1%)		1.3%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

FL AtlanticLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
FL Atlantic CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
97.7%
<0.1%
Florida Intl
100.0%
<0.1%
Army
100.0%
<0.1%
Rice
100.0%
<0.1%
ULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Texas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
East Carolina
98.9%
<0.1%
Tulsa
98.0%
<0.1%
UT San Antonio
97.9%
<0.1%
South Florida
96.9%
<0.1%
North Texas
96.1%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
65.5%
0.6%
East CarolinaULM
100.0%
<0.1%
ULMUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyULM
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFlorida Intl
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlULM
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasULM
100.0%
<0.1%
TulsaULM
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
RiceTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
Texas SouthernTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlRice
100.0%
<0.1%
South FloridaTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
Texas SouthernUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
RiceULM
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFlorida Intl
98.5%
<0.1%
Florida IntlSouth Florida
98.4%
<0.1%
Florida IntlNorth Texas
97.4%
<0.1%
Florida IntlUT San Antonio
96.0%
<0.1%
South FloridaULM
95.0%
<0.1%
ArmyRice
91.2%
<0.1%
East CarolinaRice
84.9%
<0.1%
RiceTulsa
82.0%
<0.1%
ArmyTulsa
73.2%
<0.1%
ArmyEast Carolina
72.5%
<0.1%
RiceUT San Antonio
72.2%
<0.1%
ArmyUT San Antonio
72.1%
<0.1%
TulsaUT San Antonio
69.8%
<0.1%
North TexasRice
68.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaTulsa
67.3%
<0.1%
East CarolinaUT San Antonio
66.4%
<0.1%
RiceSouth Florida
64.3%
<0.1%
ArmyNorth Texas
62.1%
<0.1%
North TexasTulsa
61.9%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNorth Texas
61.2%
<0.1%
South FloridaUT San Antonio
60.2%
<0.1%
ArmySouth Florida
56.7%
<0.1%
South FloridaTulsa
56.5%
<0.1%
North TexasUT San Antonio
56.4%
<0.1%
East CarolinaSouth Florida
55.8%
<0.1%
North TexasSouth Florida
47.0%
<0.1%
Any 3 losses
13.9%
3.5%
ArmyFlorida IntlULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlTexas SouthernTulsa
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlNorth TexasTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFlorida IntlTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlTulsaULM
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFlorida IntlTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
South FloridaTexas SouthernULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlSouth FloridaTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlULMUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyTexas SouthernULM
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasTexas SouthernULM
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaRiceTexas Southern
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaTexas SouthernULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Texas SouthernULMUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlRiceULM
100.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlNorth TexasULM
97.2%
<0.1%
Florida IntlRiceUT San Antonio
95.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFlorida IntlULM
94.7%
<0.1%
ArmyFlorida IntlRice
89.3%
<0.1%
Florida IntlSouth FloridaULM
88.9%
<0.1%
RiceULMUT San Antonio
87.5%
<0.1%
RiceTulsaULM
85.7%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaTexas Southern
81.8%
<0.1%
ArmyRiceTexas Southern
80.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlTexas SouthernUT San Antonio
80.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFlorida IntlRice
78.1%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaULM
76.8%
<0.1%
East CarolinaTulsaULM
75.0%
<0.1%
North TexasRiceTexas Southern
75.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaRiceULM
75.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFlorida IntlUT San Antonio
74.2%
<0.1%
TulsaULMUT San Antonio
73.5%
<0.1%
ArmyTexas SouthernTulsa
72.3%
<0.1%
East CarolinaTexas SouthernTulsa
71.9%
<0.1%
ArmyRiceULM
71.4%
<0.1%
ArmyTulsaULM
70.9%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFlorida IntlUT San Antonio
70.5%
<0.1%
ArmyFlorida IntlTulsa
68.7%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaFlorida Intl
68.4%
<0.1%
North TexasTexas SouthernTulsa
67.2%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFlorida IntlTulsa
67.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlNorth TexasRice
66.7%
<0.1%
East CarolinaTexas SouthernUT San Antonio
66.7%
<0.1%
RiceTexas SouthernTulsa
66.7%
<0.1%
South FloridaTexas SouthernTulsa
65.4%
<0.1%
Texas SouthernTulsaUT San Antonio
65.4%
<0.1%
North TexasTulsaULM
65.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaULMUT San Antonio
64.9%
<0.1%
Florida IntlTulsaUT San Antonio
64.2%
<0.1%
Florida IntlNorth TexasTulsa
62.9%
<0.1%
ArmySouth FloridaULM
62.7%
<0.1%
North TexasRiceULM
62.5%
<0.1%
ArmyULMUT San Antonio
62.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlRiceTulsa
61.8%
<0.1%
Florida IntlSouth FloridaTulsa
61.0%
<0.1%
Florida IntlRiceSouth Florida
60.6%
<0.1%
South FloridaULMUT San Antonio
60.4%
<0.1%
ArmyFlorida IntlNorth Texas
60.1%
<0.1%
ArmyTexas SouthernUT San Antonio
60.0%
<0.1%
ArmyNorth TexasTexas Southern
58.8%
<0.1%
South FloridaTulsaULM
58.7%
<0.1%
ArmyNorth TexasULM
57.7%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFlorida IntlSouth Florida
57.7%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNorth TexasTexas Southern
56.9%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNorth TexasULM
56.6%
<0.1%
East CarolinaFlorida IntlNorth Texas
56.1%
<0.1%
Florida IntlNorth TexasUT San Antonio
56.0%
<0.1%
ArmySouth FloridaTexas Southern
54.0%
<0.1%
ArmyFlorida IntlSouth Florida
53.8%
<0.1%
North TexasSouth FloridaTexas Southern
52.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaSouth FloridaTexas Southern
51.6%
<0.1%
Florida IntlSouth FloridaUT San Antonio
50.0%
<0.1%
RiceSouth FloridaULM
50.0%
<0.1%
South FloridaTexas SouthernUT San Antonio
50.0%
<0.1%
North TexasTexas SouthernUT San Antonio
50.0%
<0.1%
RiceSouth FloridaTexas Southern
50.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaSouth FloridaULM
46.1%
<0.1%
North TexasULMUT San Antonio
45.8%
<0.1%
Florida IntlNorth TexasSouth Florida
45.0%
<0.1%
North TexasSouth FloridaULM
44.8%
<0.1%
ArmyRiceUT San Antonio
12.5%
<0.1%
East CarolinaRiceUT San Antonio
9.3%
<0.1%
East CarolinaRiceTulsa
9.2%
<0.1%
North TexasRiceTulsa
5.5%
<0.1%
North TexasRiceSouth Florida
5.5%
<0.1%
ArmyRiceTulsa
5.5%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNorth TexasRice
5.4%
<0.1%
RiceTulsaUT San Antonio
5.0%
<0.1%
ArmyTulsaUT San Antonio
4.8%
<0.1%
North TexasRiceUT San Antonio
4.5%
<0.1%
ArmyNorth TexasTulsa
4.4%
0.3%
ArmyEast CarolinaRice
4.1%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaTulsa
4.0%
0.1%
ArmyNorth TexasRice
4.0%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaUT San Antonio
3.9%
<0.1%
East CarolinaSouth FloridaTulsa
3.6%
<0.1%
RiceSouth FloridaTulsa
3.5%
<0.1%
East CarolinaTulsaUT San Antonio
3.5%
<0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaNorth Texas
3.3%
0.3%
East CarolinaNorth TexasTulsa
3.1%
0.2%
ArmySouth FloridaTulsa
2.9%
0.1%
ArmyRiceSouth Florida
2.9%
<0.1%
ArmyNorth TexasUT San Antonio
2.9%
0.1%
North TexasTulsaUT San Antonio
2.5%
0.1%
East CarolinaNorth TexasUT San Antonio
2.5%
0.1%
ArmyEast CarolinaSouth Florida
2.4%
0.1%
RiceSouth FloridaUT San Antonio
2.3%
<0.1%
East CarolinaSouth FloridaUT San Antonio
2.3%
<0.1%
North TexasSouth FloridaTulsa
2.2%
0.2%
ArmySouth FloridaUT San Antonio
2.1%
<0.1%
South FloridaTulsaUT San Antonio
2.1%
<0.1%
East CarolinaRiceSouth Florida
2.1%
<0.1%
North TexasSouth FloridaUT San Antonio
2.0%
0.1%
East CarolinaNorth TexasSouth Florida
1.8%
0.2%
ArmyNorth TexasSouth Florida
1.7%
0.2%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

FL AtlanticCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com