South FloridaBulls
2-0 T1st (1-0) in AAC
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
50.1%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is South Florida's probability of making the American Athletic Conference Championship Game?
South Florida has a 50.1% chance to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. South Florida's American Athletic Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | W19-9 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W28-24 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:90% | |
| 4 | 9/26 | Win prob:92% | |
| 5 | 10/03 | Win prob:77% | |
| 6 | 10/08 | Win prob:55% | |
| 7 | 10/17 | Win prob:98% | |
| 9 | 10/31 | Win prob:94% | |
| 10 | 11/06 | Win prob:57% | |
| 11 | 11/12 | Win prob:60% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:76% | |
| 13 | 11/27 | Win prob:62% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 6.3% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 22.5% | 98.8% |
| 6-2 | 32.7% | 63.9% |
| 5-3 | 25.0% | 3.3% |
| 4-4 | 10.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 2.5% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 50.1% (+0.0%) | 50.1% (-0.0%) | ||
| 50.0% (-0.1%) | 50.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 50.2% (+0.1%) | 50.1% (-0.0%) | ||
| 50.2% (+0.0%) | 50.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 50.2% (+0.0%) | 50.1% (-0.0%) | ||
| 50.2% (+0.1%) | 50.1% (-0.1%) | ||
| 50.0% (-0.2%) | 50.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 50.3% (+0.2%) | 50.1% (-0.0%) | ||
| 50.2% (+0.0%) | 50.0% (-0.1%) | ||
| 50.3% (+0.1%) | 50.1% (-0.0%) | ||
| 50.1% (-0.1%) | 50.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 49.7% (-0.5%) | 50.2% (+0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
5.1%Any 1 loss
98.8%
19.4%
100.0%
0.4%
100.0%
0.6%
100.0%
0.1%
99.8%
0.3%
99.7%
1.6%
99.4%
4.2%
99.3%
1.5%
99.0%
3.1%
98.5%
3.9%
97.3%
3.5%Any 2 losses
68.6%
30.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.9%
0.2%99.9%
0.1%99.8%
<0.1%99.7%
<0.1%99.4%
0.1%99.3%
0.4%99.2%
0.5%99.1%
0.1%99.0%
0.4%99.0%
0.3%98.9%
<0.1%98.9%
0.2%98.9%
<0.1%98.8%
0.3%98.8%
<0.1%98.6%
0.4%97.8%
<0.1%97.2%
0.4%96.9%
0.3%87.6%
0.1%82.5%
0.1%81.0%
0.5%79.1%
0.3%77.3%
0.3%76.6%
1.3%76.0%
1.2%75.0%
0.2%71.5%
1.3%70.7%
1.0%70.3%
1.2%68.8%
0.2%68.6%
1.1%67.0%
3.2%64.3%
1.0%61.1%
1.0%59.7%
2.5%58.4%
2.6%58.2%
2.8%57.2%
2.6%49.2%
2.1%Any 3 losses
17.3%
26.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.3%
<0.1%99.3%
<0.1%99.2%
<0.1%98.8%
<0.1%98.8%
<0.1%98.6%
<0.1%98.4%
<0.1%97.7%
<0.1%97.7%
<0.1%97.5%
<0.1%97.5%
<0.1%96.1%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%90.6%
<0.1%89.3%
<0.1%86.3%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.4%
<0.1%84.3%
<0.1%80.3%
<0.1%80.1%
<0.1%79.7%
<0.1%79.2%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%77.9%
<0.1%76.7%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%75.5%
0.1%75.4%
0.1%75.3%
<0.1%75.1%
<0.1%74.7%
0.1%74.5%
<0.1%74.4%
<0.1%73.5%
<0.1%73.1%
0.1%72.8%
<0.1%72.5%
0.1%72.2%
<0.1%71.7%
0.1%71.0%
0.1%70.7%
<0.1%70.3%
<0.1%70.2%
<0.1%70.1%
<0.1%70.0%
0.1%69.0%
0.1%69.0%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%67.1%
<0.1%67.1%
0.1%66.6%
0.4%66.6%
<0.1%66.3%
<0.1%65.9%
<0.1%65.7%
0.1%64.3%
0.3%62.9%
<0.1%62.1%
<0.1%61.5%
0.1%61.5%
<0.1%61.2%
0.3%59.9%
<0.1%59.1%
<0.1%58.6%
0.2%58.5%
0.2%58.4%
<0.1%58.2%
0.3%57.7%
0.2%57.2%
0.3%56.0%
0.3%55.2%
0.2%54.2%
<0.1%49.4%
0.2%49.0%
0.2%45.6%
<0.1%10.4%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%7.8%
<0.1%7.8%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.2%
<0.1%7.2%
0.2%7.1%
<0.1%6.3%
0.4%5.4%
<0.1%5.1%
0.2%5.0%
0.2%4.9%
<0.1%4.8%
0.2%4.8%
0.4%4.7%
0.3%4.6%
1.0%4.3%
0.2%4.0%
0.3%3.9%
0.8%3.8%
0.9%3.8%
0.8%3.8%
1.0%3.6%
0.1%3.6%
0.8%3.3%
0.8%3.0%
0.9%2.9%
0.7%2.8%
0.7%2.7%
0.8%2.5%
2.0%2.5%
2.2%2.3%
0.6%1.9%
1.6%1.8%
1.8%Any 4 losses
7.1%
4.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%82.1%
<0.1%81.6%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.2%
<0.1%73.9%
<0.1%72.4%
<0.1%71.9%
<0.1%71.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.0%
<0.1%71.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.6%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.7%
<0.1%67.9%
<0.1%67.5%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.5%
<0.1%65.2%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.1%
<0.1%61.4%
<0.1%60.7%
<0.1%59.4%
<0.1%59.4%
<0.1%58.4%
<0.1%57.7%
<0.1%56.7%
<0.1%56.6%
<0.1%56.4%
<0.1%56.4%
<0.1%56.2%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.6%
<0.1%51.8%
<0.1%50.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.7%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.6%
<0.1%10.6%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.2%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.6%
<0.1%4.6%
0.1%4.6%
<0.1%4.6%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
0.1%4.1%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
0.2%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.8%
0.2%2.8%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.7%
0.2%2.7%
0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
0.3%2.6%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.2%
0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.8%
0.1%1.7%
0.2%1.7%
0.2%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%0.8%
<0.1%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17