South FloridaBulls
0-0 T1st (0-0) in AAC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
25.9%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is South Florida's probability of making the American Athletic Conference Championship Game?
South Florida has a 25.9% chance to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. South Florida's American Athletic Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:80% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:55% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:73% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:72% | ||
| 10/08 | Win prob:54% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:87% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:84% | ||
| 11/06 | Win prob:43% | ||
| 11/12 | Win prob:58% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:68% | ||
| 11/27 | Win prob:48% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 1.5% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 8.9% | 98.7% |
| 6-2 | 21.7% | 64.6% |
| 5-3 | 29.0% | 5.7% |
| 4-4 | 23.4% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 11.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 3.4% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.5% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 25.9% (+0.0%) | 25.9% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.7%Any 1 loss
98.9%
4.6%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.2%99.5%
0.6%99.4%
0.5%99.2%
0.2%99.2%
0.6%98.3%
0.1%98.1%
0.7%97.7%
0.9%Any 2 losses
74.6%
13.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.4%
0.2%99.3%
0.1%99.2%
0.1%99.1%
0.2%99.1%
0.2%99.0%
0.1%99.0%
0.2%98.9%
<0.1%98.8%
0.2%98.6%
<0.1%98.4%
0.1%98.2%
<0.1%98.2%
0.1%97.8%
0.3%97.8%
0.4%96.5%
<0.1%95.7%
0.1%92.5%
<0.1%85.3%
0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.4%
0.3%80.4%
0.1%80.1%
0.3%76.9%
0.2%76.7%
0.1%75.8%
0.2%73.3%
0.4%72.8%
0.2%72.3%
0.5%71.0%
0.1%69.5%
<0.1%69.4%
0.4%68.7%
0.2%68.3%
0.4%68.2%
0.2%68.2%
0.3%67.3%
0.3%65.5%
0.4%64.9%
0.7%62.0%
0.6%60.5%
0.6%60.4%
0.8%54.3%
0.6%53.6%
0.5%49.6%
1.0%Any 3 losses
32.7%
23.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.5%
<0.1%98.3%
<0.1%98.1%
0.1%97.3%
<0.1%97.2%
<0.1%97.0%
<0.1%96.8%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%84.9%
<0.1%84.9%
<0.1%84.5%
0.1%84.1%
<0.1%84.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.6%
<0.1%82.1%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.1%
<0.1%80.8%
<0.1%80.6%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.2%
<0.1%78.7%
<0.1%78.5%
0.1%78.3%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.7%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%75.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.4%
<0.1%74.0%
<0.1%73.4%
0.2%73.3%
<0.1%73.2%
<0.1%72.6%
<0.1%72.4%
<0.1%72.4%
0.1%71.7%
<0.1%70.7%
<0.1%70.6%
0.2%70.5%
<0.1%70.3%
<0.1%69.5%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%69.0%
<0.1%68.6%
0.1%68.6%
<0.1%68.5%
0.1%68.3%
<0.1%68.1%
<0.1%68.0%
<0.1%67.8%
0.2%67.7%
0.1%67.5%
<0.1%67.2%
<0.1%66.7%
0.2%66.7%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.3%
0.3%65.7%
0.1%65.6%
<0.1%65.4%
<0.1%64.6%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%63.9%
<0.1%63.6%
0.2%63.4%
0.1%62.7%
0.2%61.5%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%60.8%
0.3%60.6%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.5%
0.1%59.3%
<0.1%58.7%
<0.1%58.7%
<0.1%58.6%
0.2%58.4%
0.2%58.2%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%57.6%
<0.1%57.5%
0.2%57.1%
0.2%57.1%
<0.1%56.8%
0.1%56.7%
<0.1%56.0%
<0.1%55.6%
0.3%55.5%
0.2%55.1%
<0.1%54.8%
<0.1%54.5%
0.2%53.2%
<0.1%52.4%
0.2%51.8%
<0.1%50.3%
0.2%47.7%
0.4%47.7%
0.2%40.2%
0.1%40.0%
<0.1%21.6%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.1%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.9%
0.1%10.5%
0.3%10.4%
0.2%10.4%
0.4%10.4%
<0.1%9.6%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.4%
0.2%8.3%
0.1%8.1%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.9%
0.1%7.8%
0.1%7.5%
0.2%7.2%
0.2%7.0%
0.2%6.9%
0.3%6.8%
0.3%6.7%
0.1%6.6%
0.6%6.6%
0.3%6.4%
0.3%6.3%
0.4%6.2%
0.3%6.2%
0.2%6.0%
0.1%5.9%
0.1%5.8%
0.2%5.4%
0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.4%
0.3%5.2%
0.2%5.0%
0.1%4.9%
0.6%4.7%
0.4%4.7%
<0.1%4.5%
0.1%4.3%
0.8%4.2%
0.5%4.1%
0.2%4.1%
0.2%4.0%
0.5%4.0%
0.2%3.3%
0.4%3.0%
0.3%2.8%
0.8%2.3%
0.7%1.7%
0.4%Any 4 losses
18.1%
13.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.7%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.9%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.0%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.7%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.6%
<0.1%68.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.5%
<0.1%64.4%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.1%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.9%
<0.1%60.5%
<0.1%60.4%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.7%
<0.1%56.4%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%56.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%51.8%
<0.1%50.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.9%
<0.1%47.8%
<0.1%46.6%
<0.1%44.1%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%40.7%
<0.1%40.5%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.6%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.5%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.2%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.3%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%11.9%
<0.1%11.9%
<0.1%11.9%
<0.1%11.9%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.6%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.4%
0.1%10.1%
0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.4%
0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.8%
<0.1%7.8%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.1%
0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
0.1%6.9%
0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
0.1%6.7%
0.2%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%6.3%
0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
0.3%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.8%
0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.5%
0.2%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
0.2%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.1%
0.1%5.1%
0.1%5.1%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
0.3%4.7%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.4%
0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
0.1%4.3%
0.2%4.2%
0.2%4.2%
<0.1%4.1%
<0.1%4.1%
0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
0.3%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
0.2%3.5%
<0.1%3.4%
0.2%3.4%
0.1%3.4%
<0.1%3.4%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
0.2%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.7%
0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
0.2%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.2%
0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.9%
0.1%1.0%
0.2%Data from 2026-08-26