UAB

UABBlazers

0-0 T1st (0-0) in AAC

Data from 2026-08-26

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.6%

Based on 100,000 simulations

What is UAB's probability of making the American Athletic Conference Championship Game?

UAB has a 0.6% chance to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. UAB's American Athletic Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

UABSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
9/03
@IllinoisILL
Win prob:8%
9/12
vsULMULM
Win prob:64%
9/19
@LouisianaUL
Win prob:28%
9/25
vsNavyNAVY
Win prob:24%
10/03
vsSamfordSAM
Win prob:90%
10/10
@MemphisMEM
Win prob:17%
10/15
vsEast CarolinaECU
Win prob:23%
10/31
@South FloridaUSF
Win prob:16%
11/07
vsCharlotteCLT
Win prob:54%
11/14
@TempleTEM
Win prob:29%
11/21
vsUT San AntonioUTSA
Win prob:33%
11/28
@North TexasUNT
Win prob:25%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

UABRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
0%
100.0%
7-1
0.1%
100.0%
6-2
0.5%
68.8%
5-3
3.1%
6.3%
4-4
10.7%
0%
3-5
23.8%
0%
2-6
31.9%
0%
1-7
23.0%
0%
0-8
6.9%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely UAB CCG Opponents

if UAB makes the CCG

TulaneTulane
23.9%
East CarolinaEast Carolina
21.7%
NavyNavy
19.6%
South FloridaSouth Florida
17.4%
MemphisMemphis
17.4%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

UABThis Week's Impact

Game
UABCCG OddsAway
UABCCG OddsHome
MemphisMEM@UNLVUNLV
0.6%
(+0.0%)		0.6%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

UABLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
UAB CCG Probability
Likelihood
South Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
<0.1%
<0.1%
IllinoisLouisiana
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisNorth Texas
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteNavy
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteNorth Texas
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasTemple
100.0%
<0.1%
North TexasSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisMemphis
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisNavy
100.0%
<0.1%
MemphisNorth Texas
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 3 losses
72.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisNavyULM
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisNavyNorth Texas
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisLouisianaULM
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteIllinoisLouisiana
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisLouisianaSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaIllinoisLouisiana
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisSamfordSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisLouisianaNorth Texas
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaSouth FloridaTemple
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisMemphisNavy
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisLouisianaNavy
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaNavyUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisNorth TexasSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteIllinoisMemphis
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisNorth TexasTemple
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaNorth TexasSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisNavyUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaIllinoisNorth Texas
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisLouisianaUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteEast CarolinaIllinois
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisLouisianaMemphis
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteLouisianaMemphis
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteIllinoisTemple
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaIllinoisUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisLouisianaTemple
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisMemphisULM
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaMemphisULM
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaIllinoisMemphis
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaMemphisTemple
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaLouisianaUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisMemphisSouth Florida
80.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaIllinoisSouth Florida
75.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisSouth FloridaUT San Antonio
66.7%
<0.1%
IllinoisSouth FloridaTemple
66.7%
<0.1%
IllinoisTempleUT San Antonio
66.7%
<0.1%
East CarolinaIllinoisTemple
66.7%
<0.1%
MemphisSamfordSouth Florida
50.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisMemphisUT San Antonio
50.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisNavyTemple
50.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaSouth FloridaTemple
50.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNavyUT San Antonio
50.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaIllinoisNavy
50.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaMemphisSouth Florida
50.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaLouisianaSouth Florida
50.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisMemphisNorth Texas
40.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisNavySouth Florida
40.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNorth TexasSouth Florida
33.3%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNavyTemple
33.3%
<0.1%
MemphisNorth TexasTemple
33.3%
<0.1%
Any 4 losses
39.1%
0.4%
IllinoisLouisianaULMUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisNavySouth FloridaULM
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisSouth FloridaTempleULM
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteIllinoisLouisianaSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisLouisianaNorth TexasULM
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisLouisianaTempleUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisNavyTempleULM
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisLouisianaMemphisULM
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaIllinoisNorth TexasULM
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisLouisianaSamfordULM
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteIllinoisLouisianaNavy
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaNavyNorth TexasUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteIllinoisSouth FloridaULM
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteEast CarolinaIllinoisLouisiana
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisTempleULMUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteIllinoisSamfordSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisLouisianaNavyULM
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisLouisianaTempleULM
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteIllinoisNorth TexasULM
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaMemphisNorth TexasULM
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaIllinoisLouisianaUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisLouisianaSamfordTemple
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteIllinoisLouisianaUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisLouisianaNorth TexasTemple
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaIllinoisSamfordSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisLouisianaNorth TexasSamford
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisMemphisSamfordTemple
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisNorth TexasSamfordSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisLouisianaSouth FloridaULM
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteIllinoisNavyULM
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaNavyTempleULM
100.0%
<0.1%
MemphisNorth TexasTempleULM
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaTempleULMUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaIllinoisMemphisSamford
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaIllinoisLouisianaNavy
85.7%
<0.1%
IllinoisLouisianaNorth TexasUT San Antonio
80.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisLouisianaMemphisTemple
80.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaIllinoisLouisianaTemple
80.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisMemphisNorth TexasULM
75.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaIllinoisLouisianaMemphis
72.7%
<0.1%
IllinoisLouisianaSouth FloridaTemple
70.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisLouisianaNorth TexasSouth Florida
70.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteIllinoisLouisianaTemple
66.7%
<0.1%
IllinoisLouisianaNavyNorth Texas
66.7%
<0.1%
IllinoisLouisianaMemphisNorth Texas
66.7%
<0.1%
IllinoisLouisianaNavyTemple
66.7%
<0.1%
CharlotteIllinoisLouisianaNorth Texas
66.7%
<0.1%
IllinoisLouisianaMemphisNavy
61.5%
<0.1%
East CarolinaIllinoisLouisianaSouth Florida
60.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisLouisianaSouth FloridaUT San Antonio
60.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaIllinoisLouisianaNorth Texas
60.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisLouisianaMemphisSouth Florida
55.6%
<0.1%
IllinoisLouisianaMemphisUT San Antonio
50.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisMemphisNavyULM
50.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaIllinoisMemphisULM
50.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisLouisianaNavyUT San Antonio
50.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaIllinoisSouth FloridaULM
50.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisSouth FloridaULMUT San Antonio
50.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteIllinoisNorth TexasUT San Antonio
50.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisMemphisSouth FloridaULM
50.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaNavyNorth TexasTemple
50.0%
<0.1%
MemphisSouth FloridaTempleULM
50.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisLouisianaNavySouth Florida
41.7%
<0.1%
CharlotteIllinoisNorth TexasSouth Florida
40.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteIllinoisTempleUT San Antonio
33.3%
<0.1%
CharlotteIllinoisMemphisUT San Antonio
33.3%
<0.1%
LouisianaMemphisSouth FloridaTemple
33.3%
<0.1%
East CarolinaLouisianaMemphisTemple
33.3%
<0.1%
IllinoisNavyNorth TexasTemple
33.3%
<0.1%
East CarolinaIllinoisTempleUT San Antonio
33.3%
<0.1%
East CarolinaIllinoisNavyNorth Texas
25.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteIllinoisLouisianaMemphis
25.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisSouth FloridaTempleUT San Antonio
20.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaIllinoisMemphisNorth Texas
18.2%
<0.1%
IllinoisMemphisNavyTemple
15.4%
<0.1%
IllinoisMemphisTempleUT San Antonio
14.3%
<0.1%
East CarolinaIllinoisNorth TexasTemple
12.5%
<0.1%
IllinoisNavySouth FloridaUT San Antonio
12.5%
<0.1%
East CarolinaIllinoisMemphisTemple
11.1%
<0.1%
IllinoisMemphisNavyNorth Texas
10.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaIllinoisNorth TexasSouth Florida
9.1%
<0.1%
IllinoisNavySouth FloridaTemple
8.3%
<0.1%
East CarolinaIllinoisSouth FloridaUT San Antonio
7.7%
<0.1%
IllinoisNavyNorth TexasSouth Florida
7.1%
<0.1%
IllinoisMemphisSouth FloridaTemple
5.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisMemphisNorth TexasSouth Florida
4.0%
<0.1%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com