UAB

UABBlazers

1-1 T3rd (0-0) in AAC

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.1%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is UAB's probability of making the American Athletic Conference Championship Game?

UAB has a <0.1% chance to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. UAB's American Athletic Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

UABSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/03
@IllinoisILL
L23-42
29/12
vsULMULM
W26-20
39/19
@LouisianaUL
Win prob:17%
49/25
vsNavyNAVY
Win prob:26%
510/03
vsSamfordSAM
Win prob:90%
610/10
@MemphisMEM
Win prob:7%
710/15
vsEast CarolinaECU
Win prob:23%
910/31
@South FloridaUSF
Win prob:6%
1011/07
vsCharlotteCLT
Win prob:62%
1111/14
@TempleTEM
Win prob:16%
1211/21
vsUT San AntonioUTSA
Win prob:22%
1311/28
@North TexasUNT
Win prob:6%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

UABRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
0%
0%
7-1
0%
100.0%
6-2
0.1%
58.5%
5-3
0.6%
2.8%
4-4
4.2%
0%
3-5
16.0%
0%
2-6
33.5%
0%
1-7
34.2%
0%
0-8
11.5%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible UAB CCG Opponents

if UAB makes the CCG

USFSouth Florida
50.0%
MEMMemphis
25.0%
UNTNorth Texas
25.0%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

UABThis Week's Impact

Game
UABCCG OddsAway Wins
UABCCG OddsHome Wins
Sat, Sep 19
North TexasUNT@Texas StTXST
0.1%
(+0.0%)		0.1%
(+0.0%)
TulaneTULN@Kansas StKSU
0.1%
(+0.0%)		0.1%
(+0.0%)
TempleTEM@ToledoTOL
0.1%
(+0.0%)		0.1%
(+0.0%)
CharlotteCLT@Appalachian StAPP
0.0%
(-0.0%)		0.1%
(+0.0%)
East CarolinaECU@Old DominionODU
0.1%
(+0.0%)		0.1%
(+0.0%)
Florida IntlFIU@FL AtlanticFAU
0.1%
(+0.0%)		0.1%
(+0.0%)
Delaware StateDSU@South FloridaUSF
0.1%
(+0.0%)		0.1%
(+0.0%)
UT MartinUTM@MemphisMEM
0.0%
(-0.0%)		0.1%
(+0.0%)
W MichiganWMU@RiceRICE
0.1%
(+0.0%)		0.1%
(+0.0%)
East Texas A&METAM@TulsaTLSA
0.1%
(+0.0%)		0.1%
(+0.0%)
UABUAB@LouisianaUL
0.0%
(-0.0%)		0.1%
(+0.0%)
UT San AntonioUTSA@TexasTEX
0.0%
(-0.0%)		0.1%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

UABLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
UAB CCG Probability
Likelihood
Any 1 loss
<0.1%
<0.1%
Temple
100.0%
<0.1%
North Texas
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
<0.1%
<0.1%
North TexasTemple
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaNorth Texas
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteMemphis
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
MemphisNavy
100.0%
<0.1%
South FloridaUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaTemple
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaMemphis
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
NavyUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaLouisiana
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNavy
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNorth Texas
75.0%
<0.1%
MemphisTemple
57.1%
<0.1%
MemphisSouth Florida
50.0%
<0.1%
South FloridaTemple
50.0%
<0.1%
NavySouth Florida
50.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaSouth Florida
40.0%
<0.1%
North TexasSouth Florida
33.3%
<0.1%
MemphisNorth Texas
20.0%
<0.1%
Any 3 losses
20.1%
<0.1%
CharlotteLouisianaNorth Texas
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteLouisianaSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaMemphisSamford
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaLouisianaNavy
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaLouisianaSamford
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteLouisianaMemphis
100.0%
<0.1%
SamfordSouth FloridaUT San Antonio
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNorth TexasSamford
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaSamfordSouth Florida
100.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaLouisianaMemphis
92.9%
<0.1%
LouisianaMemphisNavy
83.3%
<0.1%
East CarolinaLouisianaUT San Antonio
83.3%
<0.1%
LouisianaSouth FloridaTemple
80.8%
<0.1%
LouisianaNavyTemple
80.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaTempleUT San Antonio
80.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaMemphisTemple
76.9%
<0.1%
LouisianaSouth FloridaUT San Antonio
72.7%
<0.1%
East CarolinaLouisianaTemple
71.4%
<0.1%
LouisianaNavySouth Florida
70.0%
<0.1%
MemphisSamfordSouth Florida
66.7%
<0.1%
LouisianaNavyUT San Antonio
66.7%
<0.1%
LouisianaMemphisSouth Florida
62.5%
<0.1%
LouisianaMemphisNorth Texas
59.7%
<0.1%
LouisianaMemphisUT San Antonio
58.8%
<0.1%
East CarolinaLouisianaSouth Florida
57.9%
<0.1%
LouisianaNorth TexasTemple
56.5%
<0.1%
East CarolinaLouisianaNorth Texas
53.8%
<0.1%
LouisianaNorth TexasUT San Antonio
53.3%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNavyTemple
50.0%
<0.1%
LouisianaNavyNorth Texas
45.5%
<0.1%
LouisianaNorth TexasSouth Florida
40.8%
<0.1%
CharlotteEast CarolinaNorth Texas
33.3%
<0.1%
NavyTempleUT San Antonio
25.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteNorth TexasSouth Florida
7.7%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNorth TexasUT San Antonio
7.7%
<0.1%
MemphisSouth FloridaTemple
6.3%
<0.1%
NavySouth FloridaTemple
6.3%
<0.1%
MemphisTempleUT San Antonio
5.6%
<0.1%
East CarolinaMemphisSouth Florida
4.7%
<0.1%
North TexasSouth FloridaTemple
4.0%
<0.1%
East CarolinaNorth TexasSouth Florida
3.9%
<0.1%
MemphisNavySouth Florida
3.9%
<0.1%
MemphisNavyNorth Texas
3.2%
<0.1%
North TexasSouth FloridaUT San Antonio
2.9%
<0.1%
NavyNorth TexasSouth Florida
2.6%
<0.1%
East CarolinaMemphisNorth Texas
2.4%
<0.1%
MemphisNorth TexasTemple
1.8%
<0.1%
MemphisNorth TexasSouth Florida
1.0%
<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

UABCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com