Tulane

TulaneGreen Wave

1-1 T3rd (0-0) in AAC

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

26.7%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Tulane's probability of making the American Athletic Conference Championship Game?

Tulane has a 26.7% chance to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Tulane's American Athletic Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

TulaneSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
@DukeDUKE
L3-17
29/12
vsSouth AlabamaUSA
W28-24
39/19
@Kansas StKSU
Win prob:12%
49/26
vsSouthern MissUSM
Win prob:77%
610/10
@ArmyARMY
Win prob:48%
710/16
vsMemphisMEM
Win prob:56%
810/24
vsUT San AntonioUTSA
Win prob:68%
910/30
@CharlotteCLT
Win prob:87%
1011/07
vsTulsaTLSA
Win prob:67%
1111/14
@RiceRICE
Win prob:83%
1211/21
vsNorth TexasUNT
Win prob:53%
1311/27
@South FloridaUSF
Win prob:38%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

TulaneRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
1.8%
100.0%
7-1
10.3%
99.5%
6-2
23.8%
59.5%
5-3
30.0%
1.8%
4-4
21.9%
0%
3-5
9.5%
0%
2-6
2.4%
0%
1-7
0.3%
0%
0-8
0.0%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Tulane CCG Opponents

if Tulane makes the CCG

USFSouth Florida
34.9%
UNTNorth Texas
18.7%
MEMMemphis
16.9%
UTSAUT San Antonio
8.2%
TLSATulsa
6.6%
ECUEast Carolina
6.6%
ARMYArmy
3.3%
TEMTemple
2.4%
NAVYNavy
1.8%
FAUFL Atlantic
0.5%
RICERice
<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

TulaneThis Week's Impact

Game
TulaneCCG OddsAway Wins
TulaneCCG OddsHome Wins
Sat, Sep 19
North TexasUNT@Texas StTXST
26.7%
(+0.0%)		26.7%
(-0.0%)
TulaneTULN@Kansas StKSU
26.7%
(+0.0%)		26.7%
(+0.0%)
TempleTEM@ToledoTOL
26.6%
(-0.1%)		26.8%
(+0.1%)
CharlotteCLT@Appalachian StAPP
26.5%
(-0.3%)		26.8%
(+0.0%)
East CarolinaECU@Old DominionODU
26.6%
(-0.1%)		26.8%
(+0.1%)
Florida IntlFIU@FL AtlanticFAU
26.8%
(+0.1%)		26.7%
(-0.1%)
Delaware StateDSU@South FloridaUSF
26.9%
(+0.1%)		26.7%
(-0.0%)
UT MartinUTM@MemphisMEM
26.9%
(+0.2%)		26.7%
(-0.0%)
W MichiganWMU@RiceRICE
26.7%
(+0.0%)		26.7%
(-0.1%)
East Texas A&METAM@TulsaTLSA
26.7%
(-0.0%)		26.7%
(+0.0%)
UABUAB@LouisianaUL
26.8%
(+0.1%)		26.7%
(-0.0%)
UT San AntonioUTSA@TexasTEX
27.0%
(+0.3%)		26.7%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

TulaneLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Tulane CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.2%
Any 1 loss
99.7%
2.2%
Kansas St
100.0%
1.2%
Southern Miss
100.0%
<0.1%
Rice
100.0%
<0.1%
Charlotte
100.0%
<0.1%
Army
99.6%
0.2%
North Texas
99.5%
0.1%
UT San Antonio
99.5%
<0.1%
South Florida
99.5%
0.3%
Tulsa
99.4%
<0.1%
Memphis
98.6%
0.1%
Any 2 losses
90.7%
9.8%
Kansas StRice
100.0%
0.3%
CharlotteKansas St
100.0%
0.2%
Kansas StSouthern Miss
100.0%
0.4%
RiceSouthern Miss
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteSouthern Miss
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyKansas St
99.8%
1.3%
ArmySouthern Miss
99.8%
<0.1%
Kansas StUT San Antonio
99.6%
0.6%
Kansas StTulsa
99.6%
0.6%
South FloridaSouthern Miss
99.5%
<0.1%
Kansas StSouth Florida
99.4%
2.0%
North TexasSouthern Miss
99.3%
<0.1%
Kansas StMemphis
99.3%
0.9%
MemphisSouthern Miss
99.1%
<0.1%
Southern MissUT San Antonio
99.1%
<0.1%
Kansas StNorth Texas
99.0%
1.1%
Southern MissTulsa
98.9%
<0.1%
CharlotteRice
88.9%
<0.1%
RiceTulsa
86.8%
<0.1%
CharlotteUT San Antonio
86.5%
<0.1%
ArmyCharlotte
84.1%
<0.1%
ArmyRice
82.5%
<0.1%
CharlotteTulsa
80.7%
<0.1%
RiceUT San Antonio
77.0%
<0.1%
ArmyTulsa
75.1%
<0.1%
MemphisRice
73.7%
<0.1%
North TexasRice
73.6%
<0.1%
CharlotteSouth Florida
72.6%
<0.1%
ArmyUT San Antonio
72.4%
<0.1%
CharlotteNorth Texas
70.9%
<0.1%
RiceSouth Florida
70.7%
<0.1%
TulsaUT San Antonio
69.8%
<0.1%
CharlotteMemphis
69.3%
<0.1%
ArmyNorth Texas
63.5%
0.1%
ArmyMemphis
61.1%
0.1%
ArmySouth Florida
60.9%
0.3%
North TexasTulsa
59.0%
<0.1%
MemphisTulsa
58.9%
<0.1%
South FloridaUT San Antonio
57.6%
0.1%
South FloridaTulsa
56.9%
0.1%
North TexasUT San Antonio
56.3%
<0.1%
MemphisUT San Antonio
54.8%
<0.1%
MemphisSouth Florida
46.2%
0.2%
MemphisNorth Texas
45.0%
0.1%
North TexasSouth Florida
44.1%
0.2%
Any 3 losses
56.4%
21.5%
Kansas StRiceSouthern Miss
100.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteKansas StSouthern Miss
100.0%
<0.1%
ArmyKansas StSouthern Miss
99.9%
0.4%
Kansas StSouthern MissUT San Antonio
99.6%
0.2%
Kansas StSouthern MissTulsa
99.5%
0.2%
Kansas StSouth FloridaSouthern Miss
99.5%
0.6%
Kansas StMemphisSouthern Miss
99.3%
0.3%
Kansas StNorth TexasSouthern Miss
99.2%
0.3%
CharlotteKansas StRice
89.7%
<0.1%
CharlotteRiceSouthern Miss
87.0%
<0.1%
RiceSouthern MissTulsa
84.2%
<0.1%
ArmyKansas StRice
84.0%
0.3%
ArmyCharlotteKansas St
83.7%
0.2%
Kansas StRiceTulsa
82.1%
0.1%
CharlotteSouthern MissTulsa
81.3%
<0.1%
CharlotteKansas StTulsa
80.7%
<0.1%
CharlotteKansas StUT San Antonio
80.5%
<0.1%
MemphisRiceSouthern Miss
79.4%
<0.1%
Kansas StRiceUT San Antonio
78.7%
0.1%
ArmyCharlotteSouthern Miss
77.8%
<0.1%
CharlotteNorth TexasSouthern Miss
77.3%
<0.1%
ArmyRiceSouthern Miss
77.1%
<0.1%
ArmySouthern MissTulsa
75.3%
<0.1%
RiceSouthern MissUT San Antonio
75.0%
<0.1%
ArmyKansas StTulsa
73.6%
0.7%
North TexasRiceSouthern Miss
73.6%
<0.1%
CharlotteSouth FloridaSouthern Miss
73.6%
<0.1%
CharlotteKansas StMemphis
72.7%
0.1%
CharlotteSouthern MissUT San Antonio
72.5%
<0.1%
Kansas StMemphisRice
72.5%
0.2%
CharlotteKansas StNorth Texas
72.4%
0.2%
Kansas StNorth TexasRice
72.0%
0.2%
ArmyKansas StUT San Antonio
71.9%
0.6%
Kansas StRiceSouth Florida
71.3%
0.4%
ArmySouthern MissUT San Antonio
71.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteKansas StSouth Florida
70.9%
0.3%
ArmyNorth TexasSouthern Miss
70.7%
<0.1%
RiceSouth FloridaSouthern Miss
70.6%
<0.1%
Southern MissTulsaUT San Antonio
68.5%
<0.1%
CharlotteMemphisSouthern Miss
67.8%
<0.1%
Kansas StTulsaUT San Antonio
66.7%
0.3%
ArmyKansas StNorth Texas
64.1%
1.1%
ArmyKansas StMemphis
63.3%
1.0%
MemphisSouthern MissUT San Antonio
63.1%
<0.1%
MemphisSouthern MissTulsa
61.7%
<0.1%
Kansas StNorth TexasTulsa
61.5%
0.5%
ArmyKansas StSouth Florida
61.1%
2.1%
Kansas StMemphisTulsa
60.8%
0.5%
ArmySouth FloridaSouthern Miss
60.8%
<0.1%
ArmyMemphisSouthern Miss
59.3%
<0.1%
South FloridaSouthern MissTulsa
58.2%
<0.1%
North TexasSouthern MissTulsa
58.0%
<0.1%
Kansas StSouth FloridaTulsa
57.2%
1.0%
Kansas StNorth TexasUT San Antonio
57.2%
0.5%
North TexasSouthern MissUT San Antonio
56.8%
<0.1%
Kansas StMemphisUT San Antonio
56.4%
0.4%
Kansas StSouth FloridaUT San Antonio
54.1%
0.9%
South FloridaSouthern MissUT San Antonio
52.9%
<0.1%
MemphisNorth TexasSouthern Miss
47.5%
<0.1%
MemphisSouth FloridaSouthern Miss
46.9%
<0.1%
Kansas StMemphisNorth Texas
46.4%
0.8%
Kansas StMemphisSouth Florida
44.7%
1.5%
North TexasSouth FloridaSouthern Miss
44.3%
<0.1%
Kansas StNorth TexasSouth Florida
42.5%
1.7%
ArmyCharlotteRice
12.8%
<0.1%
CharlotteRiceUT San Antonio
11.5%
<0.1%
CharlotteNorth TexasRice
11.1%
<0.1%
ArmyCharlotteUT San Antonio
8.5%
<0.1%
CharlotteMemphisUT San Antonio
7.3%
<0.1%
CharlotteRiceSouth Florida
7.0%
<0.1%
ArmyRiceTulsa
6.7%
<0.1%
CharlotteNorth TexasTulsa
5.9%
<0.1%
CharlotteSouth FloridaTulsa
5.0%
<0.1%
ArmyRiceUT San Antonio
5.0%
<0.1%
MemphisRiceTulsa
4.3%
<0.1%
CharlotteRiceTulsa
4.2%
<0.1%
RiceSouth FloridaTulsa
3.9%
<0.1%
ArmyNorth TexasRice
3.8%
<0.1%
North TexasRiceUT San Antonio
3.8%
<0.1%
North TexasRiceTulsa
3.7%
<0.1%
ArmyRiceSouth Florida
3.5%
<0.1%
ArmyCharlotteTulsa
3.5%
<0.1%
ArmyMemphisRice
3.3%
<0.1%
ArmyCharlotteSouth Florida
3.1%
<0.1%
MemphisNorth TexasRice
3.1%
<0.1%
MemphisRiceUT San Antonio
3.1%
<0.1%
CharlotteMemphisRice
3.0%
<0.1%
ArmyCharlotteNorth Texas
3.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteMemphisTulsa
2.9%
<0.1%
CharlotteMemphisSouth Florida
2.9%
<0.1%
CharlotteSouth FloridaUT San Antonio
2.6%
<0.1%
CharlotteMemphisNorth Texas
2.6%
<0.1%
RiceTulsaUT San Antonio
2.5%
<0.1%
ArmyCharlotteMemphis
2.4%
<0.1%
ArmyTulsaUT San Antonio
2.1%
<0.1%
RiceSouth FloridaUT San Antonio
2.1%
<0.1%
ArmyNorth TexasTulsa
2.1%
<0.1%
CharlotteTulsaUT San Antonio
2.0%
<0.1%
ArmySouth FloridaTulsa
1.9%
0.1%
ArmySouth FloridaUT San Antonio
1.6%
0.1%
MemphisNorth TexasTulsa
1.6%
<0.1%
ArmyNorth TexasUT San Antonio
1.5%
<0.1%
ArmyMemphisTulsa
1.5%
<0.1%
MemphisSouth FloridaTulsa
1.4%
0.1%
MemphisTulsaUT San Antonio
1.4%
<0.1%
MemphisRiceSouth Florida
1.3%
<0.1%
CharlotteNorth TexasSouth Florida
1.3%
<0.1%
North TexasRiceSouth Florida
1.3%
<0.1%
South FloridaTulsaUT San Antonio
1.2%
<0.1%
MemphisNorth TexasUT San Antonio
1.2%
<0.1%
North TexasTulsaUT San Antonio
1.1%
<0.1%
ArmyNorth TexasSouth Florida
1.1%
0.2%
ArmyMemphisNorth Texas
1.1%
0.1%
ArmyMemphisUT San Antonio
1.0%
<0.1%
CharlotteNorth TexasUT San Antonio
1.0%
<0.1%
MemphisSouth FloridaUT San Antonio
0.8%
0.1%
North TexasSouth FloridaTulsa
0.8%
0.1%
ArmyMemphisSouth Florida
0.7%
0.2%
MemphisNorth TexasSouth Florida
0.6%
0.2%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

TulaneCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com