TulaneGreen Wave

4-4 T5th (2-2) in AAC

Data from 2026-11-02

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

2.2%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Tulane's probability of making the American Athletic Conference Championship Game?

Tulane has a 2.2% chance to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Tulane's American Athletic Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

What does Tulane need to do to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game?

A perfect run to the end of the season puts Tulane's American Athletic Conference Championship Game odds at 47.3%.

What is the biggest game this week for Tulane's American Athletic Conference Championship Game odds?

Tulane's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating Tulsa would put its American Athletic Conference Championship Game odds at 3.9%, while a loss would drop them to <0.1%.

Schedule & Results

Wk	Date	Opponent	Result
1	9/05	@DukeDUKE	L3-17
2	9/12	vsSouth AlabamaUSA	W28-24
3	9/19	@Kansas StateKSU	L20-31
4	9/26	vsSouthern MissUSM	W24-21
6	10/10	@ArmyARMY	L17-20
7	10/16	vsMemphisMEM	W31-17
8	10/24	vsUTSAUTSA	L19-42
9	10/30	@CharlotteCLT	W38-31
10	11/07	vsTulsaTLSA	Win prob:56%
11	11/14	@RiceRICE	Win prob:72%
12	11/21	vsNorth TexasUNT	Win prob:35%
13	11/27	@South FloridaUSF	Win prob:33%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
6-2	4.6%	47.3%
5-3	23.4%	0.2%
4-4	40.2%	0%
3-5	26.3%	0%
2-6	5.5%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

65.2%

23.1%

10.4%

1.4%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Time	Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins
Thu, Nov 5Thursday, November 5
	UTSAUTSA@Florida AtlanticFAU	2.0% (-0.2%)	2.8% (+0.6%)
Fri, Nov 6Friday, November 6
	South FloridaUSF@East CarolinaECU	2.2% (+0.0%)	2.2% (+0.0%)
Sat, Nov 7Saturday, November 7
	TulsaTLSA@TulaneTULN	0.0% (-2.2%)	3.9% (+1.7%)
	CharlotteCLT@UABUAB	2.3% (+0.1%)	2.2% (-0.0%)
	TempleTEM@NavyNAVY	2.3% (+0.1%)	2.2% (-0.0%)
	RiceRICE@North TexasUNT	3.2% (+1.0%)	2.1% (-0.1%)
	Air ForceAF@ArmyARMY	2.2% (+0.0%)	2.2% (+0.0%)