TulaneGreen Wave
0-0 T1st (0-0) in AAC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
44.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Tulane's probability of making the American Athletic Conference Championship Game?
Tulane has a 44.6% chance to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Tulane's American Athletic Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:41% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:82% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:38% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:72% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:62% | ||
| 10/16 | Win prob:65% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:72% | ||
| 10/30 | Win prob:80% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:79% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:78% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:74% | ||
| 11/27 | Win prob:52% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 5.5% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 19.8% | 97.9% |
| 6-2 | 30.6% | 60.6% |
| 5-3 | 25.9% | 4.4% |
| 4-4 | 13.0% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 4.2% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 0.8% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 44.4% (-0.3%) | 44.8% (+0.1%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.5%Any 1 loss
99.2%
3.6%100.0%
0.8%100.0%
0.7%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.1%99.0%
0.3%98.9%
0.2%98.9%
0.2%98.8%
0.3%98.1%
0.5%97.9%
0.1%95.6%
0.1%Any 2 losses
89.3%
11.7%100.0%
1.3%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.5%
0.2%99.5%
0.2%99.4%
0.2%98.7%
<0.1%98.6%
0.2%98.6%
0.5%98.5%
<0.1%98.4%
0.2%98.3%
0.1%98.2%
0.1%98.2%
0.3%98.0%
0.3%97.9%
0.4%97.8%
0.3%97.7%
0.3%97.7%
<0.1%97.7%
0.4%97.5%
0.2%97.5%
0.2%97.2%
<0.1%97.0%
0.1%96.9%
0.4%96.5%
0.8%96.4%
0.7%95.8%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%76.7%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%75.5%
<0.1%72.3%
<0.1%70.4%
<0.1%69.6%
<0.1%69.0%
<0.1%66.4%
0.1%66.1%
<0.1%65.7%
<0.1%65.4%
0.1%64.8%
0.1%62.8%
0.1%62.7%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.7%
<0.1%59.4%
0.1%58.8%
0.3%57.8%
0.2%56.8%
<0.1%56.5%
0.2%55.2%
0.1%54.0%
0.3%53.4%
<0.1%51.4%
0.2%49.4%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
71.2%
21.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.7%
0.3%99.4%
0.2%99.2%
0.4%98.9%
<0.1%98.9%
0.2%98.8%
0.7%98.7%
0.2%98.7%
<0.1%98.5%
0.3%98.3%
0.1%98.3%
0.2%98.1%
0.1%97.9%
<0.1%97.9%
0.1%97.7%
<0.1%97.7%
0.4%97.7%
<0.1%97.5%
0.5%97.4%
<0.1%97.2%
0.6%97.1%
0.3%97.1%
<0.1%97.0%
1.1%96.9%
<0.1%96.9%
<0.1%96.9%
0.1%96.8%
0.3%96.8%
<0.1%96.8%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%96.2%
0.2%95.9%
<0.1%95.8%
0.1%95.4%
0.1%92.9%
<0.1%91.3%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%81.5%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.5%
<0.1%79.2%
<0.1%77.1%
<0.1%77.1%
<0.1%74.5%
<0.1%74.4%
<0.1%74.2%
<0.1%74.1%
<0.1%73.5%
<0.1%73.5%
<0.1%73.4%
0.1%72.6%
0.1%71.9%
0.1%71.6%
0.1%70.3%
0.1%70.0%
0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.7%
<0.1%69.3%
0.2%69.2%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%68.1%
0.2%68.0%
<0.1%67.7%
<0.1%67.5%
<0.1%67.4%
<0.1%67.3%
<0.1%67.1%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.3%
0.1%65.8%
0.1%65.6%
<0.1%65.4%
<0.1%65.2%
<0.1%64.5%
<0.1%64.4%
<0.1%63.9%
0.1%63.8%
0.2%63.7%
<0.1%63.5%
0.1%63.5%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.3%
0.2%62.3%
<0.1%62.2%
0.2%62.2%
0.1%61.9%
0.2%61.5%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%61.0%
0.4%60.9%
0.2%60.6%
0.2%60.2%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.5%
0.1%59.2%
0.2%59.1%
<0.1%58.9%
0.2%58.6%
0.2%58.5%
0.5%58.3%
<0.1%57.7%
0.3%57.1%
<0.1%56.8%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%56.0%
0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.4%
0.4%54.9%
0.3%54.8%
0.3%54.3%
<0.1%54.0%
<0.1%54.0%
0.3%53.6%
0.1%53.3%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%52.6%
0.2%52.4%
0.2%52.4%
<0.1%50.8%
0.1%50.4%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.1%
0.1%45.3%
0.1%44.9%
0.4%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.1%
0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.5%
0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.6%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
47.2%
22.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.3%
0.1%98.8%
0.2%98.4%
0.4%98.2%
0.1%98.2%
0.2%97.7%
<0.1%97.5%
0.2%97.5%
0.3%97.5%
<0.1%97.3%
0.1%97.2%
<0.1%97.0%
<0.1%96.9%
0.3%96.7%
0.1%96.7%
<0.1%96.0%
<0.1%95.9%
0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%94.7%
0.2%94.4%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.9%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.1%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.4%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%82.2%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.7%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.3%
<0.1%79.1%
<0.1%78.8%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.9%
<0.1%75.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.4%
<0.1%73.8%
<0.1%73.5%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%73.2%
<0.1%73.1%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%71.9%
<0.1%71.8%
0.1%71.8%
<0.1%71.6%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.3%
0.1%71.1%
<0.1%71.0%
<0.1%70.9%
0.1%70.8%
<0.1%70.6%
0.2%70.5%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.6%
<0.1%69.5%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.5%
0.2%67.9%
<0.1%67.6%
<0.1%66.7%
0.2%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.5%
0.2%65.8%
0.3%65.5%
0.1%65.4%
<0.1%65.3%
<0.1%65.2%
<0.1%65.1%
<0.1%64.6%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%64.1%
<0.1%63.3%
0.3%63.3%
<0.1%63.3%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%62.6%
0.3%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.4%
0.1%62.3%
0.2%62.2%
0.1%62.0%
<0.1%61.8%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%61.4%
<0.1%61.4%
0.1%60.8%
0.1%60.7%
<0.1%60.5%
<0.1%60.4%
0.1%60.3%
0.2%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.8%
<0.1%59.6%
<0.1%59.5%
0.2%58.9%
0.3%58.6%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%58.1%
<0.1%57.7%
<0.1%57.7%
<0.1%57.6%
0.4%57.5%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.8%
0.6%56.6%
<0.1%56.5%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%56.0%
<0.1%56.0%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.2%
0.1%55.0%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.4%
<0.1%54.2%
0.2%54.0%
0.2%53.8%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%52.8%
0.4%52.2%
<0.1%52.0%
0.2%51.8%
<0.1%51.5%
<0.1%51.4%
<0.1%51.3%
0.2%50.9%
0.4%50.8%
0.6%50.4%
0.3%50.0%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.8%
<0.1%48.6%
<0.1%46.5%
0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.9%
<0.1%43.5%
0.1%38.5%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.8%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.4%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%8.6%
0.1%8.5%
0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.8%
0.2%6.4%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.6%
0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.9%
0.1%4.8%
0.1%4.8%
0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
0.1%4.1%
<0.1%4.1%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
0.2%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.4%
<0.1%3.4%
0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
0.2%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%1.9%
0.2%1.9%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
0.2%1.7%
0.1%1.7%
0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.2%
0.2%Data from 2026-08-26