East CarolinaPirates
0-0 T1st (0-0) in AAC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
29.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is East Carolina's probability of making the American Athletic Conference Championship Game?
East Carolina has a 29.4% chance to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. East Carolina's American Athletic Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:9% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:75% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:53% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:82% | ||
| 10/15 | Win prob:77% | ||
| 10/22 | Win prob:47% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:73% | ||
| 11/06 | Win prob:57% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:75% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:56% | ||
| 11/27 | Win prob:78% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 4.0% | 99.9% |
| 7-1 | 17.1% | 90.9% |
| 6-2 | 29.1% | 33.0% |
| 5-3 | 27.5% | 0.6% |
| 4-4 | 15.6% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 5.3% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 1.1% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 29.5% (+0.2%) | 29.3% (-0.1%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.1%Any 1 loss
97.6%
2.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.8%
1.4%99.1%
0.1%97.4%
<0.1%96.3%
0.1%93.5%
<0.1%92.5%
<0.1%92.0%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%89.7%
0.2%84.3%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
87.9%
9.0%100.0%
1.2%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.3%
<0.1%95.9%
<0.1%93.6%
0.5%93.6%
0.4%93.3%
<0.1%93.1%
<0.1%92.9%
0.4%92.8%
0.4%92.7%
1.1%92.3%
0.3%91.3%
<0.1%91.0%
1.5%90.9%
<0.1%90.1%
1.0%90.0%
<0.1%89.7%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.2%
<0.1%87.0%
0.1%86.7%
<0.1%85.4%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%51.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.7%
<0.1%42.2%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.6%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%36.7%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%33.9%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%28.9%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.6%
<0.1%26.5%
0.1%26.3%
<0.1%24.4%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
57.9%
19.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.7%
0.4%99.2%
0.1%97.2%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%95.3%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%93.8%
0.1%93.4%
0.3%93.1%
0.1%92.8%
0.1%92.4%
0.2%92.3%
0.9%92.3%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%92.1%
0.3%92.0%
0.4%91.9%
0.1%91.9%
0.2%91.2%
<0.1%91.1%
0.3%90.5%
<0.1%90.3%
0.4%90.0%
0.4%89.5%
0.5%89.1%
0.1%89.0%
1.3%88.4%
0.1%87.1%
0.3%86.9%
0.9%86.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.7%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%51.6%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.5%
0.1%46.7%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.2%
<0.1%44.0%
0.1%43.9%
0.1%43.5%
<0.1%43.4%
<0.1%43.2%
0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.3%
0.2%42.0%
0.4%40.9%
0.2%40.3%
0.3%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.9%
0.4%39.8%
0.1%38.9%
0.1%38.5%
<0.1%38.1%
0.3%37.6%
0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.1%
<0.1%35.2%
0.3%33.8%
0.3%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.0%
0.3%32.9%
0.3%32.9%
0.4%32.6%
0.4%32.3%
0.2%30.8%
0.5%30.6%
<0.1%30.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.4%
1.2%29.4%
<0.1%29.3%
0.4%29.1%
0.8%28.8%
0.5%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.4%
<0.1%24.2%
1.2%21.6%
<0.1%21.5%
0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
34.7%
18.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.6%
<0.1%96.4%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.1%
0.1%92.7%
<0.1%92.7%
0.1%92.3%
<0.1%91.4%
<0.1%90.5%
0.3%90.1%
0.1%89.6%
0.1%89.0%
0.1%89.0%
0.1%88.0%
0.4%87.9%
<0.1%87.6%
0.3%86.0%
0.1%84.5%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%52.6%
<0.1%52.0%
<0.1%52.0%
<0.1%51.4%
<0.1%50.4%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.1%
<0.1%46.7%
0.3%46.5%
<0.1%46.4%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.3%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%42.0%
0.1%41.9%
0.2%41.7%
<0.1%41.4%
<0.1%41.3%
0.1%40.9%
0.1%40.8%
<0.1%40.4%
0.1%40.3%
0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.7%
0.3%39.4%
<0.1%39.0%
<0.1%38.9%
0.1%38.9%
<0.1%37.9%
0.4%37.8%
<0.1%37.6%
0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.9%
0.2%35.0%
<0.1%35.0%
0.5%35.0%
0.2%34.6%
<0.1%34.3%
<0.1%34.3%
<0.1%34.0%
0.4%33.9%
0.1%33.9%
0.1%33.8%
0.3%33.7%
0.1%33.7%
0.1%33.3%
0.3%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.0%
0.1%32.8%
0.4%32.6%
0.1%32.3%
<0.1%31.9%
<0.1%31.4%
0.1%31.4%
0.1%31.0%
<0.1%30.9%
0.3%30.8%
<0.1%30.5%
0.4%30.4%
<0.1%30.3%
0.4%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.9%
0.4%29.7%
0.1%29.7%
<0.1%29.7%
1.1%29.2%
0.2%28.7%
0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.4%
0.7%28.3%
0.1%28.0%
0.2%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.8%
0.2%26.7%
<0.1%26.5%
<0.1%26.2%
0.1%25.9%
<0.1%25.8%
0.3%25.5%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.9%
1.0%22.7%
0.4%20.7%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.6%
0.1%2.6%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
0.1%1.4%
0.1%1.4%
0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.3%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.3%0.6%
0.3%0.5%
0.4%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2026-08-26