East CarolinaPirates
0-2 T3rd (0-0) in AAC
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
12.9%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is East Carolina's probability of making the American Athletic Conference Championship Game?
East Carolina has a 12.9% chance to reach the American Athletic Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. East Carolina's American Athletic Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | L10-48 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | L24-27 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:51% | |
| 4 | 9/26 | Win prob:90% | |
| 6 | 10/10 | Win prob:86% | |
| 7 | 10/15 | Win prob:77% | |
| 8 | 10/22 | Win prob:29% | |
| 9 | 10/31 | Win prob:64% | |
| 10 | 11/06 | Win prob:43% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:79% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:37% | |
| 13 | 11/27 | Win prob:78% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 1.2% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 8.5% | 88.8% |
| 6-2 | 23.2% | 17.8% |
| 5-3 | 31.5% | 0.1% |
| 4-4 | 23.3% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 9.7% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 2.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 0.3% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 12.9% (+0.0%) | 12.9% (-0.0%) | ||
| 13.2% (+0.2%) | 12.9% (-0.0%) | ||
| 13.0% (+0.0%) | 12.9% (-0.0%) | ||
| 12.8% (-0.1%) | 13.0% (+0.0%) | ||
| 13.0% (+0.0%) | 12.9% (-0.0%) | ||
| 13.0% (+0.0%) | 12.9% (-0.0%) | ||
| 12.9% (-0.1%) | 13.0% (+0.0%) | ||
| 13.0% (+0.0%) | 12.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 12.9% (+0.0%) | 13.0% (+0.0%) | ||
| 13.0% (+0.1%) | 12.9% (-0.0%) | ||
| 12.9% (+0.0%) | 12.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 13.1% (+0.2%) | 12.9% (+0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.5%Any 1 loss
90.5%
4.5%
100.0%
0.5%
100.0%
<0.1%
93.2%
0.1%
93.0%
0.9%
92.1%
0.2%
91.6%
<0.1%
91.0%
0.3%
91.0%
0.2%
87.5%
1.3%
83.3%
0.7%Any 2 losses
38.5%
14.9%100.0%
<0.1%93.3%
0.1%93.0%
0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.7%
<0.1%92.6%
<0.1%92.3%
0.9%92.3%
<0.1%91.8%
0.3%91.8%
0.2%91.7%
0.1%90.0%
<0.1%87.6%
<0.1%87.0%
1.3%85.9%
0.2%82.8%
0.7%82.5%
<0.1%39.6%
<0.1%34.6%
<0.1%34.3%
<0.1%31.4%
<0.1%31.2%
<0.1%30.9%
0.3%29.9%
<0.1%29.6%
<0.1%29.4%
0.3%29.3%
0.1%27.0%
0.1%26.9%
<0.1%26.4%
0.3%26.3%
<0.1%24.3%
0.5%22.3%
0.2%21.3%
0.4%20.0%
0.4%19.5%
0.4%19.0%
0.1%18.9%
0.2%18.3%
0.2%17.2%
2.3%15.8%
0.2%15.8%
0.8%15.3%
1.2%15.3%
0.4%9.2%
1.8%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17