Penn StateNittany Lions
0-0 T1st (0-0) in B1G
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
14.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Penn State's probability of making the Big Ten Championship Game?
Penn State has a 14.7% chance to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Penn State's Big Ten Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:93% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:88% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:94% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:75% | ||
| 10/02 | Win prob:72% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:48% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:39% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:84% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:53% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:82% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:83% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:73% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 2.2% | 99.5% |
| 8-1 | 11.8% | 72.7% |
| 7-2 | 25.2% | 15.3% |
| 6-3 | 29.4% | 0.2% |
| 5-4 | 20.1% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 8.5% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 2.4% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 14.8% (+0.1%) | 14.7% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.4%
1.7%Any 1 loss
74.0%
9.5%
100.0%
0.1%
100.0%
0.2%
100.0%
0.1%
81.7%
0.7%
79.9%
0.3%
77.8%
0.3%
77.6%
0.4%
76.8%
0.5%
76.2%
0.7%
76.0%
1.6%
69.8%
2.7%
65.5%
1.9%Any 2 losses
21.9%
22.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%82.0%
<0.1%81.6%
<0.1%81.5%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.3%
0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.4%
<0.1%77.2%
0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.7%
<0.1%76.1%
<0.1%75.5%
<0.1%73.4%
0.2%72.8%
<0.1%72.3%
0.1%72.0%
0.2%70.2%
0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.0%
0.2%68.0%
0.4%67.6%
0.1%65.2%
<0.1%61.3%
0.3%46.2%
0.1%46.0%
<0.1%39.9%
0.2%38.5%
<0.1%37.4%
0.1%34.8%
0.1%32.7%
0.1%31.5%
0.6%30.4%
0.1%30.3%
0.1%29.6%
0.3%29.0%
0.1%28.3%
0.3%27.7%
0.3%27.4%
<0.1%27.0%
0.3%26.9%
0.2%26.6%
0.5%25.8%
0.2%21.7%
0.6%21.6%
0.1%15.4%
0.9%15.3%
1.0%14.9%
0.6%14.5%
0.5%14.3%
0.5%13.8%
0.4%13.4%
0.7%12.2%
0.6%11.8%
0.4%11.0%
2.3%10.1%
0.4%9.9%
0.7%9.5%
1.7%8.7%
1.0%5.4%
2.9%Any 3 losses
12.6%
8.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%76.7%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%41.9%
<0.1%40.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.6%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.6%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.7%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.1%
<0.1%26.2%
<0.1%26.1%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.4%
<0.1%23.2%
<0.1%22.6%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.5%
<0.1%20.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.5%
<0.1%18.9%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.0%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.3%
<0.1%16.7%
0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%15.7%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%14.9%
<0.1%14.3%
0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.6%
0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.2%
<0.1%11.1%
0.4%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.4%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.2%
0.2%9.8%
0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.5%
0.2%9.2%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.2%
0.2%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.1%
0.1%6.1%
0.2%5.9%
<0.1%5.8%
0.1%5.7%
0.1%4.7%
0.4%4.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.6%
0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
0.2%1.0%
0.1%0.9%
0.2%0.9%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.3%0.6%
0.2%0.6%
0.4%0.5%
0.2%Any 4 losses
8.1%
0.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%Data from 2026-08-26