Penn StateNittany Lions
2-0 T1st (0-0) in B1G
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
26.6%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Penn State's probability of making the Big Ten Championship Game?
Penn State has a 26.6% chance to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Penn State's Big Ten Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | W45-0 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W27-9 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:99% | |
| 4 | 9/26 | Win prob:92% | |
| 5 | 10/02 | Win prob:83% | |
| 6 | 10/10 | Win prob:52% | |
| 7 | 10/17 | Win prob:48% | |
| 9 | 10/31 | Win prob:95% | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:75% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:96% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:99% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:76% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 9.6% | 99.8% |
| 8-1 | 29.6% | 52.8% |
| 7-2 | 34.4% | 3.9% |
| 6-3 | 19.5% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 5.9% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 1.0% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Sep 18Friday, September 18 | |||
| 26.7% (+0.1%) | 26.6% (-0.0%) | ||
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 26.4% (-0.2%) | 26.6% (+0.0%) | ||
| 26.2% (-0.4%) | 26.6% (+0.0%) | ||
| 25.9% (-0.7%) | 26.6% (+0.0%) | ||
| 26.7% (+0.1%) | 26.6% (+0.0%) | ||
| 26.6% (-0.0%) | 26.6% (+0.0%) | ||
| 26.6% (-0.0%) | 28.1% (+1.5%) | ||
| 26.5% (-0.1%) | 26.6% (+0.0%) | ||
| 26.6% (-0.0%) | 26.6% (+0.0%) | ||
| 26.2% (-0.4%) | 26.6% (+0.0%) | ||
| 26.6% (+0.0%) | 26.6% (+0.0%) | ||
| 26.7% (+0.1%) | 26.6% (-0.0%) | ||
| 26.7% (+0.1%) | 26.5% (-0.1%) | ||
| 27.2% (+0.6%) | 26.6% (-0.0%) | ||
| 26.6% (+0.0%) | 26.6% (-0.0%) | ||
| 26.8% (+0.2%) | 26.5% (-0.1%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
99.8%
9.6%Any 1 loss
53.0%
29.4%
99.9%
<0.1%
64.2%
0.1%
62.2%
3.1%
62.2%
0.4%
62.0%
3.2%
61.9%
0.9%
61.5%
0.5%
61.3%
1.9%
51.6%
10.2%
43.9%
8.9%Any 2 losses
4.3%
34.3%71.9%
<0.1%61.8%
<0.1%58.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.7%
<0.1%56.0%
<0.1%51.0%
0.1%47.1%
<0.1%46.8%
<0.1%21.0%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%18.0%
0.3%17.7%
0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.2%
<0.1%16.6%
0.2%16.6%
0.3%15.0%
0.2%14.8%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.6%
1.0%14.5%
<0.1%14.4%
<0.1%13.6%
0.6%12.8%
0.1%12.6%
0.2%12.1%
0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.2%
<0.1%8.9%
0.7%4.6%
1.0%4.3%
3.2%3.9%
0.6%3.9%
0.1%3.8%
0.5%3.7%
3.4%3.3%
2.1%2.9%
0.4%2.8%
0.8%2.7%
2.8%2.7%
0.1%2.6%
0.5%2.3%
1.8%2.1%
3.0%0.8%
9.6%Any 3 losses
3.4%
0.3%44.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%22.6%
<0.1%19.6%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%12.7%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.2%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.5%
<0.1%4.1%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
<0.1%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17