Oklahoma

OklahomaSooners

1-1 T2nd (0-0) in SEC

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

3.6%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Oklahoma's probability of making the SEC Championship Game?

Oklahoma has a 3.6% chance to reach the SEC Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Oklahoma's SEC Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

OklahomaSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/04
vsUTEPUTEP
W51-0
29/12
@MichiganMICH
L10-17
39/19
vsNew MexicoUNM
Win prob:93%
49/26
@GeorgiaUGA
Win prob:17%
610/10
vsTexasTEX(N)
Win prob:15%
710/17
vsKentuckyUK
Win prob:91%
810/24
@Mississippi StMSST
Win prob:60%
910/31
vsSouth CarolinaSC
Win prob:68%
1011/07
@FloridaFLA
Win prob:47%
1111/14
vsMississippiMISS
Win prob:66%
1211/21
vsTexas A&MTA&M
Win prob:41%
1311/28
@MissouriMIZ
Win prob:60%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

OklahomaRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
9-0
0.1%
100.0%
8-1
1.1%
93.8%
7-2
6.7%
33.4%
6-3
18.5%
1.1%
5-4
28.7%
0%
4-5
26.0%
0%
3-6
14.0%
0%
2-7
4.2%
0%
1-8
0.7%
0%
0-9
0.0%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Oklahoma CCG Opponents

if Oklahoma makes the CCG

TEXTexas
44.4%
UGAGeorgia
26.3%
ALAAlabama
11.7%
LSULSU
7.3%
TA&MTexas A&M
6.4%
TENNTennessee
2.0%
SCSouth Carolina
0.6%
MISSMississippi
0.6%
FLAFlorida
0.6%
AUBAuburn
0.3%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

OklahomaThis Week's Impact

Game
OklahomaCCG OddsAway Wins
OklahomaCCG OddsHome Wins
Sat, Sep 19
GeorgiaUGA@ArkansasARK
3.6%
(-0.0%)		4.4%
(+0.8%)
NC StateNCSU@VanderbiltVAN
3.6%
(-0.0%)		3.6%
(+0.0%)
Florida StFSU@AlabamaALA
3.8%
(+0.2%)		3.6%
(-0.0%)
KentuckyUK@Texas A&MTA&M
4.1%
(+0.5%)		3.6%
(-0.0%)
Mississippi StMSST@South CarolinaSC
3.6%
(-0.0%)		3.6%
(+0.0%)
FloridaFLA@AuburnAUB
3.7%
(+0.1%)		3.5%
(-0.1%)
TroyTROY@MissouriMIZ
3.5%
(-0.0%)		3.6%
(+0.0%)
LSULSU@MississippiMISS
3.3%
(-0.3%)		4.2%
(+0.6%)
New MexicoUNM@OklahomaOU
3.6%
(-0.0%)		3.6%
(+0.0%)
KennesawKENN@TennesseeTENN
3.7%
(+0.1%)		3.6%
(+0.0%)
UT San AntonioUTSA@TexasTEX
3.3%
(-0.3%)		3.6%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

OklahomaLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Oklahoma CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
93.8%
1.1%
New Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
Kentucky
100.0%
<0.1%
Missouri
99.6%
<0.1%
Florida
99.1%
<0.1%
Mississippi
96.8%
<0.1%
South Carolina
96.4%
<0.1%
Mississippi St
94.6%
<0.1%
Texas
92.7%
0.4%
Georgia
92.4%
0.3%
Texas A&M
92.3%
0.1%
Any 2 losses
34.1%
6.3%
MissouriNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
FloridaNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
MississippiNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
KentuckyNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
Mississippi StNew Mexico
96.7%
<0.1%
New MexicoSouth Carolina
96.3%
<0.1%
GeorgiaNew Mexico
95.6%
<0.1%
New MexicoTexas A&M
93.3%
<0.1%
New MexicoTexas
90.8%
<0.1%
MissouriSouth Carolina
70.8%
<0.1%
FloridaMissouri
70.6%
<0.1%
FloridaKentucky
67.9%
<0.1%
Mississippi StMissouri
66.9%
<0.1%
KentuckyMississippi
65.0%
<0.1%
KentuckyMissouri
63.8%
<0.1%
FloridaMississippi St
61.8%
<0.1%
FloridaSouth Carolina
60.4%
<0.1%
MississippiMissouri
60.1%
<0.1%
MississippiSouth Carolina
58.8%
<0.1%
FloridaMississippi
58.8%
<0.1%
MississippiMississippi St
57.0%
<0.1%
KentuckySouth Carolina
55.6%
<0.1%
Mississippi StSouth Carolina
53.7%
<0.1%
KentuckyMississippi St
50.0%
<0.1%
Mississippi StTexas A&M
48.3%
<0.1%
FloridaTexas A&M
47.9%
0.1%
MissouriTexas
47.1%
0.3%
MissouriTexas A&M
45.0%
<0.1%
KentuckyTexas A&M
44.9%
<0.1%
GeorgiaMissouri
44.4%
0.2%
GeorgiaKentucky
43.8%
<0.1%
FloridaTexas
43.4%
0.4%
FloridaGeorgia
43.2%
0.4%
KentuckyTexas
42.9%
<0.1%
GeorgiaSouth Carolina
42.7%
0.2%
Mississippi StTexas
41.8%
0.3%
MississippiTexas A&M
41.7%
<0.1%
GeorgiaMississippi St
39.6%
0.2%
South CarolinaTexas
39.3%
0.2%
MississippiTexas
37.8%
0.2%
GeorgiaMississippi
37.2%
0.2%
South CarolinaTexas A&M
36.6%
<0.1%
GeorgiaTexas A&M
25.3%
0.5%
TexasTexas A&M
23.9%
0.6%
GeorgiaTexas
18.7%
1.9%
Any 3 losses
2.2%
15.0%
KentuckyMississippiNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
KentuckyMississippi StNew Mexico
100.0%
<0.1%
KentuckyMissouriNew Mexico
80.0%
<0.1%
MissouriNew MexicoSouth Carolina
77.8%
<0.1%
Mississippi StMissouriNew Mexico
75.0%
<0.1%
KentuckyNew MexicoTexas A&M
75.0%
<0.1%
FloridaMissouriNew Mexico
73.3%
<0.1%
MississippiMississippi StNew Mexico
66.7%
<0.1%
KentuckyNew MexicoSouth Carolina
66.7%
<0.1%
FloridaMississippi StNew Mexico
62.0%
<0.1%
MississippiNew MexicoTexas A&M
54.0%
<0.1%
FloridaNew MexicoSouth Carolina
52.4%
<0.1%
Mississippi StNew MexicoSouth Carolina
50.0%
<0.1%
FloridaMississippiNew Mexico
50.0%
<0.1%
GeorgiaMississippi StNew Mexico
47.4%
<0.1%
FloridaNew MexicoTexas A&M
47.2%
<0.1%
FloridaNew MexicoTexas
45.5%
<0.1%
MissouriNew MexicoTexas A&M
45.0%
<0.1%
KentuckyNew MexicoTexas
43.3%
<0.1%
GeorgiaNew MexicoSouth Carolina
43.0%
<0.1%
FloridaGeorgiaNew Mexico
41.7%
<0.1%
MissouriNew MexicoTexas
41.5%
<0.1%
MississippiMissouriNew Mexico
40.9%
<0.1%
Mississippi StNew MexicoTexas A&M
40.0%
<0.1%
Mississippi StNew MexicoTexas
39.5%
<0.1%
GeorgiaKentuckyNew Mexico
39.1%
<0.1%
MississippiNew MexicoTexas
39.0%
<0.1%
GeorgiaMississippiNew Mexico
37.0%
<0.1%
New MexicoSouth CarolinaTexas
36.3%
<0.1%
GeorgiaMissouriNew Mexico
34.8%
<0.1%
FloridaKentuckyNew Mexico
33.3%
<0.1%
New MexicoSouth CarolinaTexas A&M
32.4%
<0.1%
MississippiNew MexicoSouth Carolina
31.3%
<0.1%
New MexicoTexasTexas A&M
26.2%
<0.1%
GeorgiaNew MexicoTexas A&M
21.5%
<0.1%
GeorgiaNew MexicoTexas
19.3%
0.1%
FloridaKentuckyMississippi
10.0%
<0.1%
FloridaKentuckyMissouri
8.8%
<0.1%
KentuckySouth CarolinaTexas A&M
8.1%
<0.1%
KentuckyMississippi StTexas A&M
7.2%
<0.1%
MississippiMississippi StSouth Carolina
6.3%
<0.1%
FloridaKentuckyMississippi St
5.5%
<0.1%
Mississippi StMissouriSouth Carolina
5.4%
<0.1%
GeorgiaKentuckyMissouri
5.3%
<0.1%
FloridaKentuckySouth Carolina
5.3%
<0.1%
KentuckyMissouriSouth Carolina
5.0%
<0.1%
FloridaKentuckyTexas A&M
4.9%
<0.1%
FloridaMississippi StMissouri
4.8%
<0.1%
KentuckyMississippiMississippi St
4.5%
<0.1%
MississippiMississippi StMissouri
4.1%
<0.1%
FloridaMississippi StSouth Carolina
4.1%
<0.1%
KentuckyMissouriTexas
4.0%
<0.1%
KentuckyMississippi StSouth Carolina
3.9%
<0.1%
MississippiMissouriSouth Carolina
3.5%
<0.1%
GeorgiaKentuckyMississippi
3.4%
<0.1%
KentuckyMissouriTexas A&M
3.2%
<0.1%
Mississippi StMissouriTexas
3.1%
0.2%
FloridaMissouriSouth Carolina
3.1%
<0.1%
FloridaMissouriTexas
3.0%
0.3%
MississippiMississippi StTexas A&M
2.9%
<0.1%
MissouriSouth CarolinaTexas A&M
2.9%
<0.1%
FloridaKentuckyTexas
2.8%
<0.1%
FloridaMississippiMissouri
2.7%
<0.1%
FloridaMississippi StTexas A&M
2.6%
<0.1%
FloridaMississippiSouth Carolina
2.6%
<0.1%
GeorgiaKentuckySouth Carolina
2.6%
<0.1%
GeorgiaKentuckyMississippi St
2.6%
<0.1%
FloridaGeorgiaMissouri
2.5%
0.3%
FloridaMississippi StTexas
2.4%
0.3%
Mississippi StMissouriTexas A&M
2.4%
<0.1%
GeorgiaMississippiSouth Carolina
2.4%
<0.1%
FloridaMissouriTexas A&M
2.4%
<0.1%
MississippiSouth CarolinaTexas
2.4%
0.1%
GeorgiaMississippi StSouth Carolina
2.3%
0.1%
FloridaMississippiTexas A&M
2.2%
<0.1%
KentuckyMississippiTexas
2.2%
<0.1%
FloridaGeorgiaMississippi St
2.1%
0.3%
FloridaSouth CarolinaTexas
2.1%
0.2%
FloridaGeorgiaMississippi
2.0%
0.2%
MississippiSouth CarolinaTexas A&M
2.0%
<0.1%
Mississippi StSouth CarolinaTexas A&M
2.0%
<0.1%
MissouriSouth CarolinaTexas
2.0%
0.1%
GeorgiaMississippi StMissouri
1.9%
0.1%
MississippiMissouriTexas
1.8%
0.1%
KentuckyMississippiTexas A&M
1.8%
<0.1%
FloridaGeorgiaKentucky
1.8%
<0.1%
Mississippi StSouth CarolinaTexas
1.7%
0.1%
GeorgiaMississippiMissouri
1.7%
0.1%
GeorgiaMississippiMississippi St
1.7%
0.1%
MississippiMississippi StTexas
1.7%
0.1%
GeorgiaMissouriSouth Carolina
1.6%
0.1%
FloridaMississippiTexas
1.6%
0.2%
FloridaGeorgiaSouth Carolina
1.5%
0.2%
Mississippi StTexasTexas A&M
1.4%
0.4%
MississippiMissouriTexas A&M
1.4%
<0.1%
GeorgiaMississippi StTexas A&M
1.3%
0.3%
FloridaTexasTexas A&M
1.2%
0.6%
KentuckyMississippi StTexas
1.2%
<0.1%
MissouriTexasTexas A&M
1.2%
0.4%
GeorgiaKentuckyTexas
1.1%
0.2%
GeorgiaKentuckyTexas A&M
1.1%
<0.1%
FloridaGeorgiaTexas A&M
1.1%
0.5%
South CarolinaTexasTexas A&M
1.0%
0.3%
GeorgiaMissouriTexas A&M
1.0%
0.3%
MississippiTexasTexas A&M
0.9%
0.3%
KentuckyTexasTexas A&M
0.9%
<0.1%
GeorgiaMissouriTexas
0.9%
1.2%
GeorgiaMississippi StTexas
0.9%
1.2%
FloridaSouth CarolinaTexas A&M
0.8%
<0.1%
FloridaMississippiMississippi St
0.8%
<0.1%
GeorgiaSouth CarolinaTexas A&M
0.8%
0.2%
GeorgiaSouth CarolinaTexas
0.7%
0.9%
FloridaGeorgiaTexas
0.7%
2.1%
GeorgiaMississippiTexas A&M
0.7%
0.3%
GeorgiaMississippiTexas
0.6%
1.0%
KentuckySouth CarolinaTexas
0.5%
<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

OklahomaCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com