MichiganWolverines
0-0 T1st (0-0) in B1G
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
10.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Michigan's probability of making the Big Ten Championship Game?
Michigan has a 10.4% chance to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Michigan's Big Ten Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:91% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:51% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:98% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:68% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:77% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:61% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:39% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:79% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:86% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:24% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:85% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:18% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.3% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 3.6% | 97.8% |
| 7-2 | 14.5% | 42.1% |
| 6-3 | 28.4% | 1.5% |
| 5-4 | 29.2% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 17.0% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 5.8% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 1.1% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome |
|---|---|---|
| 9.4% (-0.9%) | 10.4% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.1%Any 1 loss
97.8%
1.7%
100.0%
0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
97.4%
0.4%
97.3%
0.2%
96.8%
0.7%Any 2 losses
54.0%
8.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.8%
<0.1%98.3%
0.5%98.2%
<0.1%98.2%
0.6%96.9%
0.2%96.9%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.6%
<0.1%71.4%
0.1%68.8%
<0.1%66.7%
0.2%66.7%
<0.1%64.4%
<0.1%63.9%
0.1%63.9%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.3%
0.2%60.3%
0.1%58.8%
0.2%58.6%
0.1%56.1%
0.1%51.2%
0.3%50.4%
0.3%47.3%
0.1%44.5%
0.4%32.5%
0.7%31.1%
1.0%26.9%
2.0%Any 3 losses
17.0%
19.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.6%
<0.1%96.8%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.7%
<0.1%68.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.6%
0.1%64.6%
<0.1%63.0%
0.1%62.9%
0.2%62.9%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.3%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.7%
<0.1%59.3%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%58.3%
0.2%57.9%
<0.1%57.5%
0.2%56.7%
0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.2%
0.1%52.1%
0.3%52.0%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.9%
0.3%47.6%
<0.1%43.6%
0.4%40.3%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.0%
0.7%31.6%
0.9%30.0%
<0.1%29.5%
<0.1%28.6%
0.2%28.4%
1.9%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.6%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.1%
<0.1%4.0%
0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
0.3%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.7%
0.2%2.7%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.1%
0.3%2.1%
0.1%2.0%
0.6%1.8%
0.3%1.6%
0.5%1.6%
0.2%1.5%
0.1%1.3%
0.2%1.3%
0.3%1.2%
0.2%1.2%
<0.1%1.2%
0.9%1.1%
0.6%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.7%0.7%
0.4%0.6%
3.1%0.6%
1.3%0.5%
0.2%Any 4 losses
4.2%
12.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.5%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.8%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%44.8%
<0.1%44.1%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%35.6%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%24.5%
0.1%23.7%
0.2%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.0%
0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.6%
0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.4%
0.2%3.3%
<0.1%3.0%
0.1%3.0%
<0.1%3.0%
0.2%2.8%
0.1%2.7%
0.3%2.4%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
0.4%2.1%
0.6%2.1%
<0.1%2.1%
0.5%2.0%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.4%
0.5%1.4%
0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.1%
0.3%1.1%
0.4%1.1%
0.2%0.8%
1.3%0.8%
0.9%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.7%
0.3%0.6%
0.3%0.6%
3.1%Data from 2026-08-26