MichiganWolverines
2-0 T1st (0-0) in B1G
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
5.5%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Michigan's probability of making the Big Ten Championship Game?
Michigan has a 5.5% chance to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Michigan's Big Ten Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | W13-12 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W17-10 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:99% | |
| 4 | 9/26 | Win prob:72% | |
| 5 | 10/03 | Win prob:87% | |
| 7 | 10/17 | Win prob:52% | |
| 8 | 10/24 | Win prob:24% | |
| 9 | 10/31 | Win prob:95% | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:87% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:33% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:80% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:6% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 2.4% | 96.1% |
| 7-2 | 13.2% | 23.1% |
| 6-3 | 30.2% | 0.1% |
| 5-4 | 32.0% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 16.8% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 4.7% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.7% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Sep 18Friday, September 18 | |||
| 5.4% (-0.1%) | 5.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 5.4% (-0.1%) | 5.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 5.7% (+0.2%) | 5.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 5.6% (+0.1%) | 5.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 5.4% (-0.1%) | 5.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 5.5% (+0.0%) | 5.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 5.4% (-0.0%) | 6.8% (+1.4%) | ||
| 5.9% (+0.4%) | 5.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 5.5% (+0.1%) | 5.5% (-0.0%) | ||
| 5.6% (+0.1%) | 5.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 5.5% (+0.0%) | 5.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 5.4% (-0.0%) | 5.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 5.5% (-0.0%) | 5.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 5.8% (+0.3%) | 5.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 5.5% (+0.0%) | 5.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 5.3% (-0.2%) | 5.5% (+0.1%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.1%Any 1 loss
96.1%
2.4%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
99.4%
<0.1%
98.8%
<0.1%
98.7%
<0.1%
98.6%
0.1%
96.5%
0.2%
95.9%
1.6%
95.0%
0.3%Any 2 losses
23.2%
13.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.8%
<0.1%95.2%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%68.6%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.1%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%60.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%55.1%
<0.1%53.1%
<0.1%52.0%
<0.1%50.4%
<0.1%48.3%
<0.1%47.9%
0.3%47.3%
0.2%44.7%
<0.1%44.1%
<0.1%43.4%
<0.1%43.4%
0.4%42.8%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%41.4%
0.6%40.7%
<0.1%40.2%
<0.1%38.1%
<0.1%37.5%
0.1%35.8%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%29.4%
0.2%27.3%
3.1%25.7%
0.7%18.5%
1.5%15.1%
0.3%12.1%
5.0%Any 3 losses
3.6%
0.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%35.9%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.9%
<0.1%29.5%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%21.5%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%12.8%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.9%
<0.1%0.6%
<0.1%0.5%
0.5%Any 4 losses
0.8%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%0.8%
<0.1%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17