Iowa St

Iowa StateCyclones

1-1 T2nd (0-0) in B12

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.2%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Iowa State's probability of making the Big XII Championship Game?

Iowa State has a 0.2% chance to reach the Big XII Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Iowa State's Big XII Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

Iowa StSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
vsSoutheast Missouri StateSEMO
W38-10
29/12
@IowaIOWA
L13-16
39/19
vsBowling GreenBGSU
Win prob:97%
49/26
vsUtahUTAH
Win prob:16%
510/03
vsWest VirginiaWVU
Win prob:57%
610/09
@BYUBYU
Win prob:8%
810/24
@ArizonaARIZ
Win prob:26%
910/31
vsOklahoma StOKST
Win prob:51%
1011/07
@BaylorBAY
Win prob:20%
1111/14
vsCincinnatiCIN
Win prob:33%
1211/20
@UCFUCF
Win prob:29%
1311/28
vsKansas StKSU
Win prob:26%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Iowa StRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
9-0
0%
100.0%
8-1
0.0%
95.3%
7-2
0.2%
51.3%
6-3
1.5%
4.8%
5-4
6.3%
0%
4-5
17.0%
0%
3-6
28.2%
0%
2-7
28.2%
0%
1-8
15.2%
0%
0-9
3.4%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Iowa St CCG Opponents

if Iowa St makes the CCG

TTUTexas Tech
33.3%
BYUBYU
33.3%
UTAHUtah
16.7%
KSUKansas St
5.6%
CINCincinnati
5.6%
HOUHouston
5.6%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Iowa StThis Week's Impact

Game
Iowa StCCG OddsAway Wins
Iowa StCCG OddsHome Wins
Fri, Sep 18
HoustonHOU@Texas TechTTU
0.2%
(+0.1%)		0.2%
(-0.0%)
Sat, Sep 19
Arizona StASU@KansasKU
0.2%
(+0.0%)		0.2%
(+0.0%)
Bowling GreenBGSU@Iowa StISU
0.2%
(+0.0%)		0.2%
(+0.0%)
TulaneTULN@Kansas StKSU
0.2%
(+0.0%)		0.2%
(+0.0%)
Miami OHM-OH@CincinnatiCIN
0.2%
(+0.0%)		0.2%
(+0.0%)
Utah StUSU@UtahUTAH
0.2%
(+0.0%)		0.2%
(+0.0%)
Louisiana TechLT@BaylorBAY
0.2%
(+0.0%)		0.2%
(+0.0%)
Georgia StGAST@UCFUCF
0.2%
(+0.0%)		0.2%
(+0.0%)
Murray StateMUR@Oklahoma StOKST
0.2%
(+0.0%)		0.2%
(+0.0%)
BYUBYU@Colorado StCSU
0.2%
(+0.0%)		0.2%
(+0.0%)
ColoradoCOLO@NorthwesternNU
0.2%
(+0.0%)		0.2%
(+0.0%)
West VirginiaWVU@VirginiaUVA
0.2%
(+0.0%)		0.2%
(+0.0%)
Arkansas StARST@TCUTCU
0.2%
(+0.0%)		0.2%
(+0.0%)
N IllinoisNIU@ArizonaARIZ
0.1%
(-0.1%)		0.2%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Iowa StLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Iowa St CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
91.7%
<0.1%
Utah
100.0%
<0.1%
Cincinnati
100.0%
<0.1%
Kansas St
100.0%
<0.1%
Oklahoma St
100.0%
<0.1%
UCF
100.0%
<0.1%
West Virginia
100.0%
<0.1%
Baylor
92.9%
<0.1%
BYU
91.7%
<0.1%
Arizona
90.9%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
48.2%
0.2%
BYUBowling Green
100.0%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenUCF
100.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaBowling Green
100.0%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StUCF
92.3%
<0.1%
ArizonaWest Virginia
90.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaUCF
84.4%
<0.1%
Kansas StWest Virginia
80.0%
<0.1%
UCFWest Virginia
72.7%
<0.1%
CincinnatiUCF
71.4%
<0.1%
BaylorWest Virginia
71.4%
<0.1%
CincinnatiOklahoma St
70.0%
<0.1%
BaylorOklahoma St
68.8%
<0.1%
Kansas StOklahoma St
66.7%
<0.1%
ArizonaOklahoma St
66.7%
<0.1%
BaylorUCF
65.9%
<0.1%
UCFUtah
65.8%
<0.1%
ArizonaCincinnati
65.5%
<0.1%
BYUUCF
63.6%
<0.1%
BaylorKansas St
62.3%
<0.1%
ArizonaBaylor
61.9%
<0.1%
Kansas StUCF
58.6%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StUtah
57.9%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnati
55.6%
<0.1%
ArizonaKansas St
54.8%
<0.1%
CincinnatiWest Virginia
54.5%
<0.1%
BaylorUtah
53.8%
<0.1%
BYUOklahoma St
53.6%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StWest Virginia
50.0%
<0.1%
BYUWest Virginia
48.8%
<0.1%
ArizonaUtah
48.6%
<0.1%
BYUKansas St
47.3%
<0.1%
Kansas StUtah
46.4%
<0.1%
ArizonaBYU
45.0%
<0.1%
BYUBaylor
44.8%
<0.1%
CincinnatiUtah
41.7%
<0.1%
UtahWest Virginia
41.7%
<0.1%
BYUCincinnati
41.1%
<0.1%
BYUUtah
37.6%
<0.1%
CincinnatiKansas St
37.5%
<0.1%
Any 3 losses
4.4%
1.4%
Bowling GreenCincinnatiUCF
100.0%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenKansas StUCF
100.0%
<0.1%
BaylorBowling GreenUtah
100.0%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenOklahoma StUtah
100.0%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenCincinnatiKansas St
100.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaBowling GreenUCF
100.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaBowling GreenCincinnati
100.0%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenKansas StWest Virginia
100.0%
<0.1%
BYUBowling GreenUCF
80.0%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenUCFWest Virginia
50.0%
<0.1%
BYUBaylorBowling Green
50.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaBowling GreenKansas St
50.0%
<0.1%
BYUBowling GreenCincinnati
50.0%
<0.1%
BYUBowling GreenWest Virginia
50.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaBaylorBowling Green
50.0%
<0.1%
Bowling GreenCincinnatiUtah
33.3%
<0.1%
BYUBowling GreenUtah
30.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaOklahoma StWest Virginia
23.5%
<0.1%
BaylorOklahoma StUCF
22.5%
<0.1%
ArizonaCincinnatiWest Virginia
22.2%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StUCFWest Virginia
20.0%
<0.1%
Kansas StOklahoma StUCF
19.2%
<0.1%
ArizonaUCFWest Virginia
19.1%
<0.1%
ArizonaCincinnatiOklahoma St
16.7%
<0.1%
BaylorOklahoma StWest Virginia
16.7%
<0.1%
UCFUtahWest Virginia
13.9%
<0.1%
BaylorUCFWest Virginia
13.9%
<0.1%
BaylorKansas StUCF
13.7%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StUtahWest Virginia
13.6%
<0.1%
ArizonaOklahoma StUCF
13.3%
<0.1%
Kansas StOklahoma StWest Virginia
12.5%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiOklahoma St
12.2%
<0.1%
ArizonaKansas StUCF
12.1%
<0.1%
CincinnatiUtahWest Virginia
12.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaBaylorUCF
12.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaCincinnatiUCF
11.5%
<0.1%
CincinnatiOklahoma StUtah
10.8%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiWest Virginia
10.7%
<0.1%
BaylorKansas StOklahoma St
10.5%
<0.1%
ArizonaBaylorWest Virginia
10.5%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiUCF
10.3%
<0.1%
Kansas StUCFWest Virginia
10.0%
<0.1%
BYUCincinnatiWest Virginia
9.4%
<0.1%
Kansas StUtahWest Virginia
9.3%
<0.1%
ArizonaBaylorCincinnati
8.3%
<0.1%
CincinnatiKansas StWest Virginia
8.3%
<0.1%
CincinnatiUCFWest Virginia
8.3%
<0.1%
Kansas StOklahoma StUtah
8.2%
<0.1%
ArizonaUCFUtah
7.4%
<0.1%
ArizonaBaylorKansas St
7.3%
<0.1%
CincinnatiOklahoma StUCF
7.1%
<0.1%
ArizonaOklahoma StUtah
7.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaBaylorOklahoma St
7.0%
<0.1%
Kansas StUCFUtah
6.9%
<0.1%
BYUOklahoma StWest Virginia
6.9%
<0.1%
BYUUCFWest Virginia
6.9%
<0.1%
BYUOklahoma StUCF
6.8%
<0.1%
BaylorKansas StWest Virginia
6.3%
<0.1%
ArizonaBYUUCF
6.2%
<0.1%
BYUBaylorOklahoma St
6.1%
<0.1%
CincinnatiKansas StUCF
6.1%
<0.1%
BYUBaylorWest Virginia
6.0%
<0.1%
BaylorUCFUtah
5.9%
<0.1%
ArizonaBYUBaylor
5.8%
<0.1%
ArizonaBYUOklahoma St
5.8%
<0.1%
BYUKansas StOklahoma St
5.4%
<0.1%
ArizonaBaylorUtah
5.2%
<0.1%
BYUBaylorUCF
5.1%
<0.1%
BaylorUtahWest Virginia
4.8%
<0.1%
ArizonaKansas StWest Virginia
4.8%
<0.1%
BYUUCFUtah
4.6%
<0.1%
BYUKansas StUCF
4.6%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiUtah
4.2%
<0.1%
BYUCincinnatiOklahoma St
4.1%
<0.1%
BYUCincinnatiUCF
4.1%
<0.1%
BYUBaylorKansas St
4.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaBYUWest Virginia
3.9%
<0.1%
CincinnatiUCFUtah
3.9%
<0.1%
BYUOklahoma StUtah
3.9%
<0.1%
BaylorOklahoma StUtah
3.9%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StUCFUtah
3.8%
<0.1%
ArizonaBYUKansas St
3.8%
<0.1%
ArizonaUtahWest Virginia
3.6%
<0.1%
BaylorKansas StUtah
3.3%
<0.1%
CincinnatiKansas StOklahoma St
3.1%
<0.1%
ArizonaBYUUtah
3.1%
<0.1%
BYUBaylorUtah
3.0%
0.1%
BYUUtahWest Virginia
3.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaCincinnatiUtah
2.9%
<0.1%
ArizonaKansas StOklahoma St
2.9%
<0.1%
BYUKansas StWest Virginia
2.9%
<0.1%
ArizonaBYUCincinnati
2.8%
<0.1%
BYUBaylorCincinnati
2.6%
<0.1%
CincinnatiKansas StUtah
2.3%
<0.1%
BYUCincinnatiUtah
2.3%
<0.1%
ArizonaCincinnatiKansas St
2.3%
<0.1%
BYUKansas StUtah
1.8%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiKansas St
1.8%
<0.1%
BYUCincinnatiKansas St
0.9%
<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Iowa StCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com