CincinnatiBearcats

Q: What is Cincinnati's probability of making the Big XII Championship Game?

Cincinnati has a <0.1% chance to reach the Big XII Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Cincinnati's Big XII Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

5-3 T8th (2-3) in B12

Data from 2026-11-02

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.0%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Cincinnati's probability of making the Big XII Championship Game?

Cincinnati has a <0.1% chance to reach the Big XII Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Cincinnati's Big XII Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

What does Cincinnati need to do to reach the Big XII Championship Game?

A perfect run to the end of the season puts Cincinnati's Big XII Championship Game odds at 4.7%.

What is the biggest game this week for Cincinnati's Big XII Championship Game odds?

Cincinnati's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating Houston would put its Big XII Championship Game odds at 0.3%, while a loss would drop them to -.

Schedule & Results

Wk	Date	Opponent	Result
1	9/05	vsBoston CollegeBC	W34-15
2	9/12	vsWestern CarolinaWCU	W62-10
3	9/19	vsMiami (OH)M-OH	W35-31
4	9/26	vsKansas StateKSU	W31-26
5	10/03	@ArizonaARIZ	L7-34
7	10/17	@West VirginiaWVU	L42-45
8	10/24	vsTexas TechTTU	W37-24
9	10/31	vsUtahUTAH	L25-49
10	11/07	@HoustonHOU	Win prob:16%
11	11/14	@Iowa StateISU	Win prob:50%
12	11/21	vsColoradoCOLO	Win prob:75%
13	11/28	@BYUBYU	Win prob:14%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
6-3	0.8%	4.7%
5-4	10.6%	0%
4-5	39.9%	0%
3-6	39.5%	0%
2-7	9.2%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

UtahUTAH

100%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Time	Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins
Fri, Nov 6Friday, November 6
	TCUTCU@ArizonaARIZ	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.0% (+0.0%)
Sat, Nov 7Saturday, November 7
	BYUBYU@UtahUTAH	0.0% (-0.0%)	0.0% (+0.0%)
	Iowa StateISU@BaylorBAY	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.0% (+0.0%)
	Oklahoma StateOKST@Kansas StateKSU	0.0% (-0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
	CincinnatiCIN@HoustonHOU	0.3% (+0.2%)	0.0% (-0.0%)
	UCFUCF@KansasKU	0.0% (+0.0%)	0.0% (+0.0%)
	ColoradoCOLO@Arizona StateASU	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.0% (-0.0%)
	West VirginiaWVU@Texas TechTTU	0.1% (+0.1%)	0.0% (-0.0%)