Cincinnati

CincinnatiBearcats

2-0 T2nd (0-0) in B12

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

5.3%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Cincinnati's probability of making the Big XII Championship Game?

Cincinnati has a 5.3% chance to reach the Big XII Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Cincinnati's Big XII Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

CincinnatiSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
vsBoston CollegeBC
W34-15
29/12
vsWestern CarolinaWCU
W62-10
39/19
vsMiami OHM-OH
Win prob:97%
49/26
vsKansas StKSU
Win prob:51%
510/03
@ArizonaARIZ
Win prob:50%
710/17
@West VirginiaWVU
Win prob:66%
810/24
vsTexas TechTTU
Win prob:34%
910/31
vsUtahUTAH
Win prob:37%
1011/07
@HoustonHOU
Win prob:40%
1111/14
@Iowa StISU
Win prob:67%
1211/21
vsColoradoCOLO
Win prob:71%
1311/28
@BYUBYU
Win prob:22%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

CincinnatiRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
9-0
0.1%
100.0%
8-1
1.1%
99.6%
7-2
5.5%
60.7%
6-3
15.1%
5.3%
5-4
25.1%
0.0%
4-5
26.6%
0%
3-6
17.6%
0%
2-7
7.1%
0%
1-8
1.6%
0%
0-9
0.1%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Cincinnati CCG Opponents

if Cincinnati makes the CCG

BYUBYU
33.3%
TTUTexas Tech
28.9%
UTAHUtah
19.8%
KSUKansas St
7.6%
HOUHouston
3.2%
BAYBaylor
2.6%
TCUTCU
1.3%
UCFUCF
0.9%
ASUArizona St
0.6%
COLOColorado
0.6%
ARIZArizona
0.4%
OKSTOklahoma St
0.4%
ISUIowa St
0.2%
WVUWest Virginia
0.2%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

CincinnatiThis Week's Impact

Game
CincinnatiCCG OddsAway Wins
CincinnatiCCG OddsHome Wins
Fri, Sep 18
HoustonHOU@Texas TechTTU
6.0%
(+0.7%)		5.1%
(-0.2%)
Sat, Sep 19
Arizona StASU@KansasKU
5.3%
(-0.0%)		5.3%
(+0.1%)
Bowling GreenBGSU@Iowa StISU
5.5%
(+0.2%)		5.3%
(-0.0%)
TulaneTULN@Kansas StKSU
5.2%
(-0.1%)		5.3%
(+0.0%)
Miami OHM-OH@CincinnatiCIN
5.3%
(-0.0%)		5.3%
(+0.0%)
Utah StUSU@UtahUTAH
5.3%
(-0.1%)		5.3%
(+0.0%)
Louisiana TechLT@BaylorBAY
5.3%
(-0.0%)		5.3%
(+0.0%)
Georgia StGAST@UCFUCF
5.3%
(-0.0%)		5.3%
(+0.0%)
Murray StateMUR@Oklahoma StOKST
5.3%
(+0.0%)		5.3%
(+0.0%)
BYUBYU@Colorado StCSU
5.3%
(-0.0%)		5.5%
(+0.2%)
ColoradoCOLO@NorthwesternNU
5.3%
(-0.0%)		5.3%
(+0.0%)
West VirginiaWVU@VirginiaUVA
5.3%
(+0.0%)		5.3%
(-0.0%)
Arkansas StARST@TCUTCU
5.3%
(-0.0%)		5.3%
(+0.0%)
N IllinoisNIU@ArizonaARIZ
5.5%
(+0.2%)		5.3%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

CincinnatiLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Cincinnati CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
99.6%
1.1%
Iowa St
100.0%
<0.1%
West Virginia
100.0%
<0.1%
Arizona
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado
100.0%
<0.1%
Miami OH
100.0%
<0.1%
Kansas St
99.9%
<0.1%
Houston
99.7%
0.1%
BYU
99.5%
0.3%
Utah
99.4%
0.1%
Texas Tech
99.1%
0.2%
Any 2 losses
60.9%
5.3%
HoustonMiami OH
100.0%
<0.1%
Miami OHTexas Tech
100.0%
<0.1%
Miami OHUtah
100.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaMiami OH
100.0%
<0.1%
BYUMiami OH
100.0%
<0.1%
Kansas StMiami OH
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StMiami OH
100.0%
<0.1%
Miami OHWest Virginia
100.0%
<0.1%
ColoradoMiami OH
100.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaWest Virginia
91.3%
<0.1%
ColoradoWest Virginia
89.3%
<0.1%
ArizonaIowa St
88.8%
<0.1%
Iowa StWest Virginia
87.9%
<0.1%
ArizonaColorado
86.0%
<0.1%
ColoradoIowa St
83.8%
<0.1%
HoustonIowa St
82.6%
<0.1%
ArizonaHouston
82.2%
0.1%
HoustonWest Virginia
81.7%
<0.1%
ColoradoHouston
80.2%
<0.1%
Kansas StWest Virginia
78.4%
<0.1%
UtahWest Virginia
72.1%
<0.1%
BYUWest Virginia
71.8%
0.2%
Texas TechWest Virginia
70.9%
<0.1%
ColoradoKansas St
70.8%
<0.1%
Iowa StKansas St
70.7%
<0.1%
Iowa StTexas Tech
70.2%
<0.1%
ColoradoTexas Tech
69.2%
<0.1%
HoustonKansas St
68.3%
0.1%
ColoradoUtah
67.7%
<0.1%
Iowa StUtah
67.6%
<0.1%
ArizonaKansas St
67.1%
<0.1%
ArizonaTexas Tech
66.7%
0.2%
ArizonaUtah
66.0%
0.1%
BYUColorado
65.8%
0.1%
BYUIowa St
65.3%
0.1%
HoustonUtah
63.5%
0.2%
ArizonaBYU
63.4%
0.3%
BYUHouston
62.8%
0.4%
Kansas StUtah
60.5%
0.1%
HoustonTexas Tech
59.6%
0.3%
Kansas StTexas Tech
58.6%
0.2%
BYUKansas St
58.1%
0.3%
Texas TechUtah
46.5%
0.3%
BYUUtah
46.5%
0.5%
BYUTexas Tech
39.7%
0.6%
Any 3 losses
5.9%
14.8%
ColoradoMiami OHWest Virginia
100.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaIowa StMiami OH
100.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaColoradoMiami OH
100.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StMiami OHWest Virginia
100.0%
<0.1%
ColoradoHoustonMiami OH
92.9%
<0.1%
ColoradoKansas StMiami OH
90.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaMiami OHWest Virginia
89.5%
<0.1%
Iowa StMiami OHTexas Tech
85.7%
<0.1%
HoustonMiami OHWest Virginia
85.7%
<0.1%
HoustonIowa StMiami OH
83.3%
<0.1%
ArizonaHoustonMiami OH
79.6%
<0.1%
Iowa StKansas StMiami OH
78.6%
<0.1%
BYUMiami OHWest Virginia
76.6%
<0.1%
Kansas StMiami OHWest Virginia
75.0%
<0.1%
ColoradoIowa StMiami OH
75.0%
<0.1%
HoustonKansas StMiami OH
71.4%
<0.1%
BYUIowa StMiami OH
69.2%
<0.1%
ColoradoMiami OHTexas Tech
69.2%
<0.1%
ArizonaMiami OHTexas Tech
67.3%
<0.1%
Miami OHTexas TechWest Virginia
66.7%
<0.1%
Iowa StMiami OHUtah
66.7%
<0.1%
ArizonaMiami OHUtah
66.0%
<0.1%
ColoradoMiami OHUtah
65.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaBYUMiami OH
64.4%
<0.1%
BYUKansas StMiami OH
64.3%
<0.1%
ArizonaKansas StMiami OH
63.6%
<0.1%
HoustonMiami OHUtah
61.9%
<0.1%
BYUHoustonMiami OH
61.9%
<0.1%
BYUColoradoMiami OH
58.7%
<0.1%
Miami OHUtahWest Virginia
56.5%
<0.1%
Kansas StMiami OHTexas Tech
55.6%
<0.1%
HoustonMiami OHTexas Tech
55.0%
<0.1%
Kansas StMiami OHUtah
54.0%
<0.1%
Miami OHTexas TechUtah
53.7%
<0.1%
BYUMiami OHUtah
48.0%
<0.1%
BYUMiami OHTexas Tech
37.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaColoradoWest Virginia
20.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaIowa StWest Virginia
18.7%
<0.1%
ColoradoIowa StWest Virginia
17.2%
<0.1%
HoustonIowa StWest Virginia
14.4%
<0.1%
ArizonaColoradoIowa St
14.0%
<0.1%
ColoradoHoustonWest Virginia
13.9%
<0.1%
ArizonaKansas StWest Virginia
13.5%
<0.1%
ArizonaHoustonWest Virginia
12.7%
<0.1%
ColoradoHoustonIowa St
12.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaHoustonIowa St
11.9%
<0.1%
ArizonaColoradoHouston
11.7%
<0.1%
Iowa StTexas TechWest Virginia
11.5%
<0.1%
ColoradoUtahWest Virginia
11.1%
<0.1%
ArizonaIowa StTexas Tech
11.0%
<0.1%
BYUIowa StWest Virginia
10.5%
<0.1%
ColoradoKansas StWest Virginia
10.3%
<0.1%
Iowa StKansas StWest Virginia
10.3%
<0.1%
ArizonaColoradoTexas Tech
10.3%
<0.1%
ColoradoTexas TechWest Virginia
10.2%
<0.1%
ArizonaTexas TechWest Virginia
10.1%
<0.1%
ArizonaIowa StUtah
10.0%
<0.1%
ColoradoIowa StKansas St
9.8%
<0.1%
ArizonaBYUIowa St
9.7%
0.1%
Iowa StUtahWest Virginia
9.2%
<0.1%
ArizonaUtahWest Virginia
9.2%
<0.1%
BYUColoradoWest Virginia
9.0%
<0.1%
HoustonKansas StWest Virginia
9.0%
<0.1%
HoustonTexas TechWest Virginia
9.0%
0.1%
HoustonIowa StTexas Tech
8.8%
0.1%
ColoradoIowa StUtah
8.7%
<0.1%
ArizonaColoradoKansas St
8.7%
<0.1%
Kansas StTexas TechWest Virginia
8.5%
<0.1%
HoustonIowa StKansas St
8.4%
<0.1%
HoustonUtahWest Virginia
8.3%
0.1%
ColoradoIowa StTexas Tech
8.3%
<0.1%
HoustonIowa StUtah
8.2%
0.1%
ArizonaBYUWest Virginia
8.2%
0.1%
ArizonaIowa StKansas St
7.8%
<0.1%
BYUHoustonWest Virginia
7.7%
0.2%
ColoradoKansas StUtah
7.5%
<0.1%
BYUHoustonIowa St
7.5%
0.2%
Texas TechUtahWest Virginia
7.5%
0.1%
ArizonaHoustonKansas St
7.5%
0.1%
Kansas StUtahWest Virginia
7.4%
<0.1%
Iowa StKansas StUtah
7.3%
<0.1%
BYUKansas StWest Virginia
7.3%
0.1%
BYUColoradoIowa St
7.3%
<0.1%
ColoradoHoustonUtah
7.2%
<0.1%
ColoradoHoustonTexas Tech
7.2%
0.1%
ColoradoKansas StTexas Tech
7.1%
<0.1%
ArizonaHoustonTexas Tech
7.1%
0.2%
ArizonaBYUHouston
6.7%
0.5%
BYUIowa StKansas St
6.7%
0.1%
ArizonaBYUColorado
6.6%
0.1%
ColoradoHoustonKansas St
6.4%
<0.1%
BYUColoradoHouston
6.2%
0.2%
ArizonaColoradoUtah
6.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StKansas StTexas Tech
5.9%
<0.1%
ArizonaBYUKansas St
5.7%
0.3%
HoustonKansas StUtah
5.7%
0.2%
ArizonaHoustonUtah
5.6%
0.2%
BYUIowa StUtah
5.6%
0.3%
ArizonaKansas StTexas Tech
5.4%
0.2%
ArizonaKansas StUtah
5.3%
0.1%
BYUUtahWest Virginia
5.1%
0.3%
HoustonKansas StTexas Tech
4.9%
0.3%
BYUTexas TechWest Virginia
4.8%
0.3%
Iowa StTexas TechUtah
4.6%
0.1%
BYUColoradoKansas St
4.5%
0.1%
BYUHoustonKansas St
4.5%
0.5%
ArizonaBYUUtah
4.3%
0.5%
BYUIowa StTexas Tech
4.2%
0.3%
ColoradoTexas TechUtah
4.1%
0.1%
ArizonaBYUTexas Tech
3.9%
0.6%
ArizonaTexas TechUtah
3.9%
0.3%
BYUKansas StUtah
3.6%
0.5%
BYUHoustonUtah
3.4%
0.8%
Kansas StTexas TechUtah
3.2%
0.3%
HoustonTexas TechUtah
3.2%
0.4%
BYUColoradoTexas Tech
3.2%
0.2%
BYUColoradoUtah
3.0%
0.2%
BYUKansas StTexas Tech
2.9%
0.6%
BYUHoustonTexas Tech
2.8%
0.9%
BYUTexas TechUtah
2.1%
1.0%
Any 4 losses
5.3%
0.5%
HoustonIowa StMiami OHWest Virginia
50.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaColoradoIowa StMiami OH
28.6%
<0.1%
ColoradoMiami OHTexas TechWest Virginia
26.7%
<0.1%
Iowa StMiami OHUtahWest Virginia
21.4%
<0.1%
Kansas StMiami OHTexas TechWest Virginia
18.5%
<0.1%
ArizonaKansas StMiami OHWest Virginia
16.7%
<0.1%
ArizonaColoradoHoustonMiami OH
16.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaKansas StMiami OHTexas Tech
15.7%
<0.1%
HoustonKansas StMiami OHWest Virginia
14.8%
<0.1%
ColoradoIowa StMiami OHUtah
14.3%
<0.1%
ArizonaHoustonMiami OHUtah
13.4%
<0.1%
ArizonaColoradoKansas StMiami OH
13.3%
<0.1%
ColoradoHoustonMiami OHTexas Tech
13.3%
<0.1%
ArizonaHoustonMiami OHWest Virginia
12.9%
<0.1%
ColoradoHoustonKansas StMiami OH
12.5%
<0.1%
BYUIowa StMiami OHWest Virginia
12.0%
<0.1%
ColoradoKansas StMiami OHUtah
12.0%
<0.1%
BYUColoradoHoustonMiami OH
11.6%
<0.1%
ArizonaIowa StMiami OHTexas Tech
11.5%
<0.1%
ArizonaKansas StMiami OHUtah
11.3%
<0.1%
ArizonaIowa StMiami OHUtah
11.1%
<0.1%
ArizonaMiami OHTexas TechWest Virginia
11.1%
<0.1%
ColoradoKansas StMiami OHWest Virginia
11.1%
<0.1%
ColoradoHoustonIowa StMiami OH
11.1%
<0.1%
BYUColoradoIowa StMiami OH
11.1%
<0.1%
HoustonMiami OHTexas TechWest Virginia
10.6%
<0.1%
HoustonIowa StMiami OHTexas Tech
10.2%
<0.1%
BYUColoradoMiami OHWest Virginia
10.0%
<0.1%
BYUIowa StKansas StMiami OH
9.8%
<0.1%
ArizonaBYUHoustonMiami OH
9.8%
<0.1%
ArizonaHoustonKansas StMiami OH
9.8%
<0.1%
Miami OHTexas TechUtahWest Virginia
8.6%
<0.1%
ColoradoMiami OHUtahWest Virginia
8.3%
<0.1%
ArizonaBYUMiami OHWest Virginia
8.2%
<0.1%
ColoradoKansas StMiami OHTexas Tech
8.0%
<0.1%
HoustonKansas StMiami OHUtah
7.2%
<0.1%
BYUMiami OHUtahWest Virginia
7.2%
<0.1%
ArizonaBYUMiami OHTexas Tech
6.7%
<0.1%
BYUHoustonMiami OHWest Virginia
6.5%
<0.1%
HoustonMiami OHUtahWest Virginia
6.5%
<0.1%
BYUHoustonIowa StMiami OH
6.3%
<0.1%
HoustonIowa StMiami OHUtah
6.3%
<0.1%
HoustonKansas StMiami OHTexas Tech
5.7%
<0.1%
ArizonaBYUColoradoMiami OH
5.6%
<0.1%
BYUIowa StMiami OHUtah
5.4%
<0.1%
HoustonMiami OHTexas TechUtah
5.4%
<0.1%
ArizonaHoustonIowa StMiami OH
5.3%
<0.1%
Kansas StMiami OHTexas TechUtah
5.2%
<0.1%
ArizonaBYUIowa StMiami OH
5.2%
<0.1%
BYUColoradoMiami OHTexas Tech
5.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaColoradoMiami OHTexas Tech
5.0%
<0.1%
HoustonIowa StKansas StMiami OH
4.8%
<0.1%
Iowa StMiami OHTexas TechUtah
4.3%
<0.1%
BYUKansas StMiami OHUtah
4.2%
<0.1%
BYUIowa StMiami OHTexas Tech
4.2%
<0.1%
Iowa StKansas StMiami OHUtah
4.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaMiami OHUtahWest Virginia
4.0%
<0.1%
BYUKansas StMiami OHWest Virginia
3.9%
<0.1%
BYUHoustonKansas StMiami OH
3.8%
<0.1%
BYUMiami OHTexas TechWest Virginia
3.8%
<0.1%
BYUHoustonMiami OHTexas Tech
3.7%
<0.1%
Iowa StKansas StMiami OHTexas Tech
3.2%
<0.1%
ArizonaBYUKansas StMiami OH
3.0%
<0.1%
BYUColoradoMiami OHUtah
2.8%
<0.1%
ArizonaBYUMiami OHUtah
2.8%
<0.1%
BYUColoradoKansas StMiami OH
2.5%
<0.1%
ArizonaHoustonMiami OHTexas Tech
2.5%
<0.1%
ColoradoMiami OHTexas TechUtah
2.4%
<0.1%
BYUHoustonMiami OHUtah
2.4%
<0.1%
BYUMiami OHTexas TechUtah
2.3%
<0.1%
BYUKansas StMiami OHTexas Tech
2.3%
<0.1%
ArizonaMiami OHTexas TechUtah
1.0%
<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

CincinnatiCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com