CincinnatiBearcats
0-0 T1st (0-0) in B12
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
4.3%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Cincinnati's probability of making the Big XII Championship Game?
Cincinnati has a 4.3% chance to reach the Big XII Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Cincinnati's Big XII Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:71% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:79% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:54% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:38% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:54% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:22% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:46% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:38% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:57% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:56% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:25% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.5% | 99.6% |
| 7-2 | 2.9% | 75.9% |
| 6-3 | 9.8% | 15.6% |
| 5-4 | 20.2% | 0.1% |
| 4-5 | 27.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 22.9% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 12.3% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 3.7% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 4.2% (-0.1%) | 4.3% (+0.1%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
99.2%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.4%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
77.1%
1.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%92.5%
<0.1%91.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.1%
<0.1%88.5%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%87.8%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.2%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%75.9%
0.1%75.3%
0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.1%
<0.1%73.8%
<0.1%72.9%
<0.1%72.5%
0.1%72.0%
<0.1%72.0%
<0.1%71.2%
<0.1%71.2%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.4%
<0.1%65.4%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%53.1%
0.2%Any 3 losses
27.4%
6.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.0%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.6%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.6%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.5%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.1%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.3%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.1%
<0.1%61.8%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.0%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.9%
<0.1%30.6%
<0.1%30.4%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%26.5%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%25.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.4%
<0.1%24.2%
<0.1%24.0%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.3%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.4%
<0.1%21.9%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.8%
0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.5%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.8%
<0.1%19.6%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.9%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.7%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.1%
<0.1%16.3%
<0.1%16.1%
0.1%16.0%
<0.1%15.9%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.9%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.0%
<0.1%13.4%
0.1%12.8%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.2%
0.1%10.5%
0.3%10.4%
0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.2%
0.1%10.1%
0.2%9.8%
0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.6%
0.2%8.4%
0.2%8.0%
<0.1%7.0%
0.2%6.9%
0.3%4.8%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
16.4%
4.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%51.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%34.8%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%29.6%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%20.9%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%17.1%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.2%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.1%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.5%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.8%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.8%
0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.2%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.6%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.8%
0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%0.7%
0.1%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2026-08-26