Oklahoma St

Oklahoma StateCowboys

1-1 T2nd (0-0) in B12

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.9%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Oklahoma State's probability of making the Big XII Championship Game?

Oklahoma State has a 0.9% chance to reach the Big XII Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Oklahoma State's Big XII Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

Oklahoma StSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
@TulsaTLSA
L10-24
29/12
vsOregonORE
W39-31
39/19
vsMurray StateMUR
Win prob:90%
49/26
@West VirginiaWVU
Win prob:48%
610/10
vsUCFUCF
Win prob:53%
710/17
@HoustonHOU
Win prob:23%
810/24
vsColoradoCOLO
Win prob:53%
910/31
@Iowa StISU
Win prob:49%
1011/07
@Kansas StKSU
Win prob:19%
1111/14
vsTexas TechTTU
Win prob:19%
1211/21
@Arizona StASU
Win prob:35%
1311/28
vsKansasKU
Win prob:65%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Oklahoma StRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
9-0
0.0%
100.0%
8-1
0.2%
87.5%
7-2
1.7%
33.9%
6-3
7.1%
1.4%
5-4
17.5%
0%
4-5
26.9%
0%
3-6
25.9%
0%
2-7
15.1%
0%
1-8
4.9%
0%
0-9
0.7%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Oklahoma St CCG Opponents

if Oklahoma St makes the CCG

BYUBYU
33.3%
TTUTexas Tech
28.9%
UTAHUtah
22.2%
KSUKansas St
6.7%
CINCincinnati
2.2%
HOUHouston
2.2%
BAYBaylor
2.2%
TCUTCU
1.1%
UCFUCF
1.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Oklahoma StThis Week's Impact

Game
Oklahoma StCCG OddsAway Wins
Oklahoma StCCG OddsHome Wins
Fri, Sep 18
HoustonHOU@Texas TechTTU
1.0%
(+0.1%)		0.9%
(-0.0%)
Sat, Sep 19
Arizona StASU@KansasKU
0.9%
(-0.0%)		0.9%
(+0.0%)
Bowling GreenBGSU@Iowa StISU
0.9%
(+0.0%)		0.9%
(+0.0%)
TulaneTULN@Kansas StKSU
0.9%
(+0.0%)		0.9%
(+0.0%)
Miami OHM-OH@CincinnatiCIN
0.9%
(-0.0%)		0.9%
(+0.0%)
Utah StUSU@UtahUTAH
0.8%
(-0.1%)		0.9%
(+0.0%)
Louisiana TechLT@BaylorBAY
0.9%
(+0.0%)		0.9%
(+0.0%)
Georgia StGAST@UCFUCF
0.9%
(-0.0%)		0.9%
(+0.0%)
Murray StateMUR@Oklahoma StOKST
0.9%
(+0.0%)		0.9%
(+0.0%)
BYUBYU@Colorado StCSU
0.9%
(+0.0%)		0.9%
(-0.0%)
ColoradoCOLO@NorthwesternNU
0.9%
(+0.0%)		0.9%
(-0.0%)
West VirginiaWVU@VirginiaUVA
0.9%
(+0.0%)		0.9%
(+0.0%)
Arkansas StARST@TCUTCU
0.9%
(+0.0%)		0.9%
(+0.0%)
N IllinoisNIU@ArizonaARIZ
0.9%
(+0.0%)		0.9%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Oklahoma StLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Oklahoma St CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
87.3%
0.2%
Murray State
100.0%
<0.1%
Colorado
93.1%
<0.1%
West Virginia
93.1%
<0.1%
UCF
92.3%
<0.1%
Kansas St
89.5%
<0.1%
Kansas
89.3%
<0.1%
Iowa St
88.8%
<0.1%
Arizona St
88.2%
<0.1%
Houston
86.8%
<0.1%
Texas Tech
81.1%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
35.0%
1.6%
Murray StateWest Virginia
100.0%
<0.1%
Kansas StMurray State
96.4%
<0.1%
Iowa StMurray State
95.5%
<0.1%
Murray StateUCF
95.5%
<0.1%
KansasMurray State
90.9%
<0.1%
ColoradoMurray State
88.9%
<0.1%
HoustonMurray State
86.0%
<0.1%
Arizona StMurray State
81.8%
<0.1%
Murray StateTexas Tech
77.4%
<0.1%
ColoradoIowa St
47.9%
<0.1%
HoustonWest Virginia
47.2%
<0.1%
Iowa StWest Virginia
47.1%
<0.1%
Arizona StWest Virginia
46.9%
<0.1%
UCFWest Virginia
46.7%
<0.1%
ColoradoWest Virginia
46.7%
<0.1%
KansasUCF
46.7%
<0.1%
Arizona StUCF
46.5%
<0.1%
ColoradoUCF
44.9%
<0.1%
Iowa StUCF
44.9%
<0.1%
KansasWest Virginia
43.6%
<0.1%
Arizona StColorado
43.5%
<0.1%
Kansas StWest Virginia
42.0%
<0.1%
Arizona StKansas
41.8%
<0.1%
Kansas StUCF
41.1%
<0.1%
ColoradoHouston
40.8%
<0.1%
Arizona StIowa St
39.9%
<0.1%
KansasKansas St
39.6%
<0.1%
ColoradoKansas St
38.6%
<0.1%
Arizona StKansas St
38.2%
<0.1%
Arizona StHouston
38.1%
<0.1%
HoustonKansas
37.0%
<0.1%
HoustonIowa St
36.3%
<0.1%
Iowa StKansas St
36.1%
<0.1%
HoustonUCF
35.3%
<0.1%
Iowa StKansas
34.6%
<0.1%
HoustonKansas St
33.3%
0.2%
Texas TechUCF
30.8%
<0.1%
Texas TechWest Virginia
30.6%
<0.1%
Kansas StTexas Tech
29.5%
0.2%
ColoradoKansas
29.4%
<0.1%
Arizona StTexas Tech
28.6%
<0.1%
KansasTexas Tech
26.7%
<0.1%
ColoradoTexas Tech
25.1%
<0.1%
Iowa StTexas Tech
24.7%
<0.1%
HoustonTexas Tech
22.6%
0.1%
Any 3 losses
2.1%
6.5%
ColoradoKansasMurray State
83.3%
<0.1%
Murray StateUCFWest Virginia
60.0%
<0.1%
Arizona StMurray StateUCF
55.6%
<0.1%
ColoradoIowa StMurray State
54.5%
<0.1%
HoustonKansasMurray State
47.1%
<0.1%
KansasKansas StMurray State
46.7%
<0.1%
HoustonMurray StateUCF
46.2%
<0.1%
Kansas StMurray StateWest Virginia
45.8%
<0.1%
Iowa StKansas StMurray State
44.7%
<0.1%
Arizona StIowa StMurray State
44.4%
<0.1%
HoustonMurray StateWest Virginia
44.2%
<0.1%
Iowa StMurray StateWest Virginia
43.5%
<0.1%
Arizona StColoradoMurray State
43.5%
<0.1%
ColoradoHoustonMurray State
42.9%
<0.1%
Murray StateTexas TechWest Virginia
42.6%
<0.1%
ColoradoKansas StMurray State
42.1%
<0.1%
ColoradoMurray StateWest Virginia
41.7%
<0.1%
Arizona StKansas StMurray State
40.7%
<0.1%
Murray StateTexas TechUCF
39.5%
<0.1%
Arizona StMurray StateWest Virginia
39.1%
<0.1%
Iowa StKansasMurray State
37.5%
<0.1%
Kansas StMurray StateUCF
35.0%
<0.1%
HoustonKansas StMurray State
34.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StMurray StateUCF
33.3%
<0.1%
KansasMurray StateTexas Tech
31.0%
<0.1%
ColoradoMurray StateTexas Tech
29.6%
<0.1%
KansasMurray StateWest Virginia
28.6%
<0.1%
Kansas StMurray StateTexas Tech
25.1%
<0.1%
ColoradoMurray StateUCF
25.0%
<0.1%
HoustonMurray StateTexas Tech
22.1%
<0.1%
Arizona StHoustonMurray State
21.6%
<0.1%
Arizona StMurray StateTexas Tech
20.4%
<0.1%
Arizona StKansasMurray State
20.0%
<0.1%
KansasMurray StateUCF
20.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StMurray StateTexas Tech
19.7%
<0.1%
HoustonIowa StMurray State
13.7%
<0.1%
ColoradoKansasWest Virginia
6.8%
<0.1%
ColoradoIowa StKansas
5.4%
<0.1%
ColoradoIowa StUCF
5.3%
<0.1%
Arizona StIowa StKansas
4.8%
<0.1%
Arizona StKansasUCF
4.6%
<0.1%
Arizona StKansasWest Virginia
4.3%
<0.1%
Iowa StKansas StUCF
4.0%
<0.1%
Iowa StUCFWest Virginia
3.8%
<0.1%
Arizona StIowa StWest Virginia
3.6%
<0.1%
ColoradoIowa StWest Virginia
3.6%
<0.1%
Iowa StKansas StWest Virginia
3.5%
<0.1%
Arizona StColoradoKansas
3.5%
<0.1%
KansasKansas StWest Virginia
3.4%
<0.1%
Iowa StKansasUCF
3.3%
<0.1%
Arizona StUCFWest Virginia
3.3%
<0.1%
Iowa StKansasKansas St
3.1%
<0.1%
ColoradoHoustonKansas
3.1%
<0.1%
Arizona StColoradoUCF
2.9%
<0.1%
ColoradoHoustonWest Virginia
2.8%
<0.1%
Arizona StHoustonIowa St
2.8%
<0.1%
HoustonUCFWest Virginia
2.8%
<0.1%
Iowa StKansasWest Virginia
2.7%
<0.1%
Kansas StUCFWest Virginia
2.6%
<0.1%
Arizona StKansas StUCF
2.6%
<0.1%
HoustonKansasWest Virginia
2.5%
<0.1%
Arizona StKansas StWest Virginia
2.5%
<0.1%
Arizona StKansasKansas St
2.4%
<0.1%
KansasTexas TechWest Virginia
2.3%
<0.1%
Iowa StKansasTexas Tech
2.3%
<0.1%
Arizona StIowa StKansas St
2.3%
<0.1%
Texas TechUCFWest Virginia
2.2%
<0.1%
KansasTexas TechUCF
2.1%
<0.1%
Arizona StColoradoIowa St
2.1%
<0.1%
HoustonKansas StWest Virginia
2.1%
0.2%
Arizona StTexas TechWest Virginia
2.0%
0.1%
Iowa StTexas TechWest Virginia
2.0%
<0.1%
ColoradoKansas StUCF
2.0%
<0.1%
Arizona StColoradoWest Virginia
1.9%
<0.1%
Kansas StTexas TechWest Virginia
1.8%
0.2%
ColoradoUCFWest Virginia
1.8%
<0.1%
HoustonIowa StUCF
1.8%
<0.1%
ColoradoIowa StKansas St
1.8%
<0.1%
Iowa StTexas TechUCF
1.8%
<0.1%
KansasUCFWest Virginia
1.8%
<0.1%
Arizona StColoradoHouston
1.7%
<0.1%
ColoradoHoustonIowa St
1.7%
<0.1%
Arizona StTexas TechUCF
1.7%
<0.1%
KansasKansas StUCF
1.6%
<0.1%
Arizona StHoustonWest Virginia
1.6%
<0.1%
HoustonKansasKansas St
1.6%
<0.1%
HoustonIowa StWest Virginia
1.6%
<0.1%
ColoradoTexas TechWest Virginia
1.6%
<0.1%
Arizona StIowa StUCF
1.6%
<0.1%
HoustonKansasUCF
1.5%
<0.1%
HoustonIowa StKansas
1.5%
<0.1%
ColoradoHoustonUCF
1.5%
<0.1%
Arizona StHoustonKansas
1.4%
<0.1%
Arizona StKansasTexas Tech
1.4%
<0.1%
KansasKansas StTexas Tech
1.3%
0.1%
Arizona StIowa StTexas Tech
1.3%
<0.1%
Kansas StTexas TechUCF
1.3%
0.2%
Arizona StKansas StTexas Tech
1.3%
0.4%
ColoradoKansas StTexas Tech
1.2%
0.2%
Arizona StHoustonTexas Tech
1.1%
0.3%
Arizona StHoustonUCF
1.1%
<0.1%
Arizona StHoustonKansas St
1.1%
0.3%
ColoradoKansas StWest Virginia
1.1%
<0.1%
Arizona StColoradoKansas St
1.1%
<0.1%
HoustonIowa StKansas St
1.0%
0.2%
HoustonTexas TechWest Virginia
1.0%
0.2%
ColoradoHoustonKansas St
1.0%
0.1%
Iowa StKansas StTexas Tech
1.0%
0.2%
ColoradoKansasKansas St
0.8%
<0.1%
Arizona StColoradoTexas Tech
0.8%
<0.1%
HoustonTexas TechUCF
0.8%
0.1%
ColoradoHoustonTexas Tech
0.8%
0.1%
ColoradoTexas TechUCF
0.8%
<0.1%
HoustonKansas StUCF
0.8%
0.1%
HoustonKansas StTexas Tech
0.7%
0.7%
HoustonKansasTexas Tech
0.6%
<0.1%
HoustonIowa StTexas Tech
0.5%
0.2%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Oklahoma StCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com