Oklahoma StateCowboys
0-0 T1st (0-0) in B12
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
4.4%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Oklahoma State's probability of making the Big XII Championship Game?
Oklahoma State has a 4.4% chance to reach the Big XII Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Oklahoma State's Big XII Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:72% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:13% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:52% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:59% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:36% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:53% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:54% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:40% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:20% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:41% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:57% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.8% | 96.4% |
| 7-2 | 4.2% | 61.3% |
| 6-3 | 12.2% | 8.3% |
| 5-4 | 22.5% | 0.0% |
| 4-5 | 26.8% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 20.5% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 9.9% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 2.7% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 4.4% (+0.1%) | 4.3% (-0.0%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
95.6%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
82.7%
0.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.4%
<0.1%98.2%
<0.1%98.0%
<0.1%97.7%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%94.1%
0.1%90.9%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%52.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
53.1%
3.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.2%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.6%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%77.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.6%
<0.1%73.9%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%70.4%
<0.1%69.7%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.3%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.4%
<0.1%64.6%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%60.4%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.7%
0.2%58.3%
<0.1%58.1%
<0.1%57.9%
0.1%56.6%
0.1%56.5%
0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.3%
0.3%53.1%
0.2%52.2%
<0.1%51.2%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.3%
0.2%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
16.0%
8.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.2%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.2%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.7%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%46.0%
<0.1%44.6%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%43.2%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.6%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%29.2%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%26.5%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%21.2%
<0.1%20.6%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.6%
<0.1%18.4%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.6%
0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.4%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.6%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.0%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.6%
<0.1%10.4%
<0.1%10.4%
0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.6%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.4%
0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.3%
0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.6%
0.2%8.6%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
0.2%8.2%
0.2%8.2%
0.2%8.2%
<0.1%8.1%
0.3%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.6%
0.2%7.5%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.5%
0.4%7.4%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.2%
0.1%7.2%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
0.1%7.1%
0.3%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.5%
0.2%5.5%
0.2%5.4%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.9%
0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
0.2%4.1%
0.2%3.5%
0.2%2.9%
0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%Data from 2026-08-26