Oklahoma StateCowboys
5-3 T4th (3-2) in B12
Data from 2026-11-02
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
3.7%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Oklahoma State's probability of making the Big XII Championship Game?
Oklahoma State has a 3.7% chance to reach the Big XII Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Oklahoma State's Big XII Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
What does Oklahoma State need to do to reach the Big XII Championship Game?
A perfect run to the end of the season puts Oklahoma State's Big XII Championship Game odds at 29.2%.
What is the biggest game this week for Oklahoma State's Big XII Championship Game odds?
Oklahoma State's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating Kansas State would put its Big XII Championship Game odds at 6.0%, while a loss would drop them to <0.1%.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | L10-24 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W39-31 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | W59-0 | |
| 4 | 9/26 | W41-24 | |
| 6 | 10/10 | W42-28 | |
| 7 | 10/17 | L32-35 | |
| 8 | 10/24 | W57-24 | |
| 9 | 10/31 | L49-51 | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:61% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:38% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:71% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:76% |
Data from 2026-11-02
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 7-2 | 12.4% | 29.2% |
| 6-3 | 37.3% | 0.2% |
| 5-4 | 35.3% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 13.3% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 1.7% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-11-02
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-11-02
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Nov 6Friday, November 6 | |||
| 4.0% (+0.4%) | 3.6% (-0.1%) | ||
| Sat, Nov 7Saturday, November 7 | |||
| 2.1% (-1.6%) | 4.4% (+0.7%) | ||
| 3.9% (+0.2%) | 3.6% (-0.0%) | ||
| 6.0% (+2.3%) | 0.1% (-3.6%) | ||
| 5.8% (+2.1%) | 3.3% (-0.4%) | ||
| 3.8% (+0.2%) | 3.6% (-0.1%) | ||
| 3.7% (+0.1%) | 3.7% (-0.0%) | ||
| 5.0% (+1.3%) | 3.6% (-0.1%) | ||
Best Winner Combination for
Colorado
TCU
UCF
Cincinnati
West Virginia
BaylorOklahoma State
UtahCCG: 17.4% • Scenario: 0.0%
Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for
Oklahoma StateUtahCCG: 7.1% • Scenario: 42.1%
Data from 2026-11-02
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
CCG ProbabilityData from 2026-11-02
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-11-02