ColoradoBuffaloes
0-0 T1st (0-0) in B12
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
5.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Colorado's probability of making the Big XII Championship Game?
Colorado has a 5.2% chance to reach the Big XII Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Colorado's Big XII Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/03 | Win prob:45% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:51% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:40% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:22% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:47% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:47% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:55% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:44% | ||
| 11/13 | Win prob:50% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:44% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:61% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.8% | 98.1% |
| 7-2 | 4.0% | 70.5% |
| 6-3 | 11.9% | 13.2% |
| 5-4 | 22.1% | 0.1% |
| 4-5 | 26.1% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 21.1% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 10.6% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 2.9% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 5.2% (-0.1%) | 5.3% (+0.1%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
97.9%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
78.9%
1.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.6%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%76.0%
<0.1%75.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.8%
<0.1%70.8%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.2%
<0.1%67.9%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%61.4%
<0.1%57.5%
<0.1%56.0%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%48.3%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
41.8%
4.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.4%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%92.6%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%84.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.0%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.2%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.1%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%72.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%69.0%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%67.3%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.0%
<0.1%65.5%
<0.1%64.5%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%61.8%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%61.0%
<0.1%60.4%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.8%
<0.1%55.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.1%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%21.0%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.3%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.4%
<0.1%16.1%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.5%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.9%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.8%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.2%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
22.5%
6.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.4%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.1%
<0.1%80.8%
<0.1%80.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.7%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%76.3%
<0.1%75.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.3%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%62.9%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.7%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%52.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.6%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%27.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.9%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.6%
<0.1%24.0%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.7%
<0.1%20.6%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.3%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.2%
<0.1%17.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.4%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.0%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.4%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.8%
<0.1%12.7%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.0%
0.1%10.8%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.6%
<0.1%10.6%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.2%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.5%
0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.6%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.2%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.4%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%Data from 2026-08-26