Colorado

ColoradoBuffaloes

2-0 T2nd (0-0) in B12

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

1.1%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Colorado's probability of making the Big XII Championship Game?

Colorado has a 1.1% chance to reach the Big XII Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Colorado's Big XII Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

ColoradoSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/03
@Georgia TechGT
W14-13
29/12
vsWeber StateWEB
W52-21
39/19
@NorthwesternNU
Win prob:48%
49/26
@BaylorBAY
Win prob:30%
510/03
vsTexas TechTTU
Win prob:22%
710/17
vsUtahUTAH
Win prob:25%
810/24
@Oklahoma StOKST
Win prob:47%
910/31
vsKansas StKSU
Win prob:37%
1011/07
@Arizona StASU
Win prob:40%
1111/13
vsHoustonHOU
Win prob:43%
1211/21
@CincinnatiCIN
Win prob:29%
1311/28
vsUCFUCF
Win prob:58%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

ColoradoRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
9-0
0.0%
100.0%
8-1
0.1%
97.7%
7-2
1.1%
57.0%
6-3
4.9%
6.6%
5-4
13.5%
0.0%
4-5
23.8%
0%
3-6
27.4%
0%
2-7
19.7%
0%
1-8
8.1%
0%
0-9
1.4%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Colorado CCG Opponents

if Colorado makes the CCG

BYUBYU
33.9%
TTUTexas Tech
26.8%
UTAHUtah
19.6%
KSUKansas St
7.1%
HOUHouston
2.7%
BAYBaylor
2.7%
CINCincinnati
2.7%
TCUTCU
1.8%
UCFUCF
0.9%
ASUArizona St
0.9%
ARIZArizona
0.9%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

ColoradoThis Week's Impact

Game
ColoradoCCG OddsAway Wins
ColoradoCCG OddsHome Wins
Fri, Sep 18
HoustonHOU@Texas TechTTU
1.3%
(+0.2%)		1.1%
(-0.1%)
Sat, Sep 19
Arizona StASU@KansasKU
1.1%
(+0.0%)		1.1%
(-0.0%)
Bowling GreenBGSU@Iowa StISU
1.1%
(-0.1%)		1.1%
(+0.0%)
TulaneTULN@Kansas StKSU
1.1%
(+0.0%)		1.1%
(+0.0%)
Miami OHM-OH@CincinnatiCIN
1.2%
(+0.1%)		1.1%
(+0.0%)
Utah StUSU@UtahUTAH
1.3%
(+0.2%)		1.1%
(+0.0%)
Louisiana TechLT@BaylorBAY
1.1%
(+0.0%)		1.1%
(+0.0%)
Georgia StGAST@UCFUCF
1.1%
(-0.0%)		1.1%
(+0.0%)
Murray StateMUR@Oklahoma StOKST
1.1%
(-0.0%)		1.1%
(+0.0%)
BYUBYU@Colorado StCSU
1.1%
(+0.0%)		1.1%
(-0.1%)
ColoradoCOLO@NorthwesternNU
1.1%
(+0.0%)		1.1%
(+0.0%)
West VirginiaWVU@VirginiaUVA
1.1%
(-0.0%)		1.1%
(+0.0%)
Arkansas StARST@TCUTCU
1.2%
(+0.1%)		1.1%
(+0.0%)
N IllinoisNIU@ArizonaARIZ
1.1%
(-0.1%)		1.1%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

ColoradoLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Colorado CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
98.1%
<0.1%
Arizona St
100.0%
<0.1%
Kansas St
100.0%
<0.1%
Oklahoma St
100.0%
<0.1%
UCF
100.0%
<0.1%
Northwestern
100.0%
<0.1%
Houston
100.0%
<0.1%
Cincinnati
98.9%
<0.1%
Utah
97.0%
<0.1%
Baylor
96.5%
<0.1%
Texas Tech
95.9%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
61.3%
0.6%
Arizona StNorthwestern
100.0%
<0.1%
NorthwesternOklahoma St
100.0%
<0.1%
HoustonNorthwestern
100.0%
<0.1%
NorthwesternUCF
100.0%
<0.1%
Kansas StNorthwestern
98.5%
<0.1%
BaylorNorthwestern
98.0%
<0.1%
NorthwesternUtah
97.1%
<0.1%
CincinnatiNorthwestern
95.7%
<0.1%
NorthwesternTexas Tech
92.9%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StUCF
90.3%
<0.1%
Arizona StOklahoma St
84.9%
<0.1%
HoustonUCF
84.1%
<0.1%
CincinnatiOklahoma St
83.3%
<0.1%
HoustonOklahoma St
81.7%
<0.1%
BaylorOklahoma St
79.8%
<0.1%
Arizona StUCF
76.7%
<0.1%
Arizona StBaylor
72.9%
<0.1%
BaylorHouston
71.5%
<0.1%
Kansas StOklahoma St
71.3%
<0.1%
BaylorUCF
69.8%
<0.1%
Arizona StHouston
68.7%
<0.1%
CincinnatiUCF
68.6%
<0.1%
Texas TechUCF
68.5%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StUtah
68.4%
<0.1%
Arizona StCincinnati
66.4%
<0.1%
CincinnatiHouston
64.2%
<0.1%
BaylorKansas St
63.8%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnati
63.7%
<0.1%
Kansas StUCF
61.5%
<0.1%
Arizona StKansas St
57.6%
<0.1%
HoustonTexas Tech
57.1%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StTexas Tech
56.3%
<0.1%
Kansas StUtah
54.1%
<0.1%
UCFUtah
54.0%
<0.1%
HoustonKansas St
53.7%
<0.1%
HoustonUtah
53.6%
<0.1%
Arizona StUtah
53.3%
<0.1%
BaylorTexas Tech
52.0%
<0.1%
CincinnatiKansas St
50.9%
<0.1%
Kansas StTexas Tech
50.8%
<0.1%
Arizona StTexas Tech
48.5%
<0.1%
BaylorUtah
47.5%
<0.1%
CincinnatiTexas Tech
43.3%
<0.1%
CincinnatiUtah
43.1%
<0.1%
Texas TechUtah
41.8%
<0.1%
Any 3 losses
16.4%
2.9%
HoustonNorthwesternOklahoma St
83.6%
<0.1%
HoustonNorthwesternUCF
80.4%
<0.1%
Arizona StHoustonNorthwestern
79.0%
<0.1%
Arizona StNorthwesternOklahoma St
78.4%
<0.1%
CincinnatiNorthwesternOklahoma St
77.2%
<0.1%
BaylorNorthwesternOklahoma St
76.5%
<0.1%
HoustonKansas StNorthwestern
73.3%
<0.1%
BaylorNorthwesternUCF
73.1%
<0.1%
Arizona StNorthwesternUCF
72.1%
<0.1%
Kansas StNorthwesternUCF
71.7%
<0.1%
CincinnatiNorthwesternUCF
71.3%
<0.1%
NorthwesternOklahoma StUCF
67.9%
<0.1%
BaylorHoustonNorthwestern
67.7%
<0.1%
Arizona StCincinnatiNorthwestern
66.7%
<0.1%
Kansas StNorthwesternOklahoma St
65.5%
<0.1%
Arizona StBaylorNorthwestern
65.3%
<0.1%
CincinnatiHoustonNorthwestern
65.2%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiNorthwestern
64.8%
<0.1%
NorthwesternOklahoma StTexas Tech
63.9%
<0.1%
BaylorKansas StNorthwestern
62.2%
<0.1%
NorthwesternOklahoma StUtah
62.2%
<0.1%
Arizona StKansas StNorthwestern
60.4%
<0.1%
NorthwesternTexas TechUCF
54.9%
<0.1%
Arizona StNorthwesternTexas Tech
54.6%
<0.1%
Kansas StNorthwesternUtah
54.5%
<0.1%
CincinnatiKansas StNorthwestern
54.4%
<0.1%
BaylorNorthwesternTexas Tech
54.2%
<0.1%
Kansas StNorthwesternTexas Tech
53.3%
<0.1%
HoustonNorthwesternUtah
52.3%
<0.1%
NorthwesternUCFUtah
52.2%
<0.1%
BaylorNorthwesternUtah
51.0%
<0.1%
HoustonNorthwesternTexas Tech
50.8%
<0.1%
Arizona StNorthwesternUtah
47.7%
<0.1%
CincinnatiNorthwesternUtah
42.3%
<0.1%
CincinnatiNorthwesternTexas Tech
39.9%
<0.1%
NorthwesternTexas TechUtah
35.8%
<0.1%
BaylorOklahoma StUCF
24.2%
<0.1%
HoustonOklahoma StUCF
20.0%
<0.1%
Arizona StKansas StOklahoma St
18.2%
<0.1%
CincinnatiOklahoma StUCF
17.7%
<0.1%
Arizona StBaylorOklahoma St
15.1%
<0.1%
Arizona StKansas StUCF
14.9%
<0.1%
Arizona StBaylorUCF
14.7%
<0.1%
Arizona StOklahoma StUCF
14.6%
<0.1%
Arizona StCincinnatiOklahoma St
13.9%
<0.1%
Arizona StCincinnatiUCF
13.9%
<0.1%
HoustonKansas StUCF
13.0%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StUCFUtah
12.7%
<0.1%
Arizona StBaylorCincinnati
12.6%
<0.1%
Arizona StUCFUtah
12.0%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StTexas TechUCF
11.4%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiHouston
11.3%
<0.1%
HoustonKansas StOklahoma St
10.9%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiOklahoma St
10.8%
<0.1%
Kansas StOklahoma StUCF
10.7%
<0.1%
BaylorKansas StUCF
10.7%
<0.1%
CincinnatiHoustonOklahoma St
10.6%
<0.1%
BaylorHoustonUCF
10.5%
<0.1%
BaylorKansas StOklahoma St
10.4%
<0.1%
Arizona StBaylorHouston
10.0%
<0.1%
Arizona StHoustonOklahoma St
10.0%
<0.1%
BaylorOklahoma StUtah
9.6%
<0.1%
HoustonOklahoma StUtah
9.4%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiUCF
9.3%
<0.1%
BaylorOklahoma StTexas Tech
9.2%
<0.1%
BaylorHoustonOklahoma St
9.1%
<0.1%
Arizona StOklahoma StUtah
8.6%
<0.1%
CincinnatiOklahoma StTexas Tech
8.5%
<0.1%
BaylorHoustonKansas St
8.5%
<0.1%
Arizona StTexas TechUCF
8.4%
<0.1%
Arizona StBaylorKansas St
8.4%
<0.1%
Arizona StCincinnatiHouston
8.4%
<0.1%
BaylorTexas TechUCF
7.9%
<0.1%
Arizona StHoustonKansas St
7.6%
<0.1%
BaylorHoustonTexas Tech
7.5%
<0.1%
CincinnatiOklahoma StUtah
7.5%
<0.1%
Kansas StOklahoma StUtah
7.4%
<0.1%
BaylorKansas StTexas Tech
7.3%
<0.1%
Arizona StHoustonUCF
7.3%
<0.1%
CincinnatiKansas StOklahoma St
7.2%
<0.1%
CincinnatiKansas StUCF
7.2%
<0.1%
Arizona StHoustonTexas Tech
7.1%
<0.1%
Arizona StHoustonUtah
6.9%
<0.1%
Kansas StUCFUtah
6.8%
<0.1%
Arizona StBaylorTexas Tech
6.7%
<0.1%
Arizona StCincinnatiTexas Tech
6.3%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiUtah
6.3%
<0.1%
Kansas StTexas TechUCF
6.1%
<0.1%
CincinnatiTexas TechUCF
6.1%
<0.1%
Arizona StCincinnatiKansas St
6.1%
<0.1%
BaylorKansas StUtah
6.0%
<0.1%
HoustonUCFUtah
5.9%
<0.1%
HoustonKansas StUtah
5.9%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiKansas St
5.8%
<0.1%
CincinnatiUCFUtah
5.8%
<0.1%
Arizona StKansas StTexas Tech
5.7%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiTexas Tech
5.6%
<0.1%
Arizona StBaylorUtah
5.5%
<0.1%
HoustonOklahoma StTexas Tech
5.5%
<0.1%
Arizona StKansas StUtah
5.4%
<0.1%
Arizona StOklahoma StTexas Tech
5.3%
<0.1%
CincinnatiKansas StUtah
5.2%
<0.1%
Arizona StCincinnatiUtah
5.2%
<0.1%
HoustonTexas TechUCF
5.2%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StTexas TechUtah
5.1%
<0.1%
CincinnatiHoustonUCF
4.9%
<0.1%
BaylorUCFUtah
4.8%
<0.1%
CincinnatiHoustonTexas Tech
4.7%
<0.1%
BaylorTexas TechUtah
4.5%
0.1%
HoustonTexas TechUtah
4.1%
<0.1%
Texas TechUCFUtah
4.1%
<0.1%
Kansas StTexas TechUtah
4.0%
<0.1%
CincinnatiHoustonUtah
3.8%
<0.1%
Kansas StOklahoma StTexas Tech
3.8%
<0.1%
CincinnatiHoustonKansas St
3.8%
<0.1%
BaylorHoustonUtah
3.5%
<0.1%
Arizona StTexas TechUtah
3.4%
<0.1%
HoustonKansas StTexas Tech
3.3%
<0.1%
CincinnatiKansas StTexas Tech
3.0%
<0.1%
CincinnatiTexas TechUtah
1.9%
0.1%
Any 4 losses
6.7%
2.6%
Arizona StHoustonNorthwesternUCF
22.4%
<0.1%
BaylorNorthwesternOklahoma StUCF
19.7%
<0.1%
Arizona StBaylorNorthwesternOklahoma St
16.8%
<0.1%
Arizona StNorthwesternOklahoma StUCF
16.3%
<0.1%
Arizona StHoustonNorthwesternOklahoma St
16.1%
<0.1%
CincinnatiNorthwesternOklahoma StUCF
15.4%
<0.1%
Arizona StCincinnatiNorthwesternOklahoma St
14.5%
<0.1%
BaylorKansas StNorthwesternUCF
14.2%
<0.1%
Arizona StCincinnatiNorthwesternUCF
14.1%
<0.1%
Kansas StNorthwesternOklahoma StUCF
13.9%
<0.1%
Arizona StBaylorHoustonNorthwestern
13.7%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiNorthwesternOklahoma St
13.4%
<0.1%
Arizona StHoustonKansas StNorthwestern
13.3%
<0.1%
BaylorHoustonNorthwesternOklahoma St
13.3%
<0.1%
NorthwesternOklahoma StUCFUtah
13.0%
<0.1%
BaylorNorthwesternOklahoma StTexas Tech
12.0%
<0.1%
Arizona StBaylorNorthwesternUCF
11.0%
<0.1%
HoustonNorthwesternOklahoma StUCF
10.9%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiNorthwesternUCF
10.7%
<0.1%
Arizona StBaylorCincinnatiNorthwestern
10.4%
<0.1%
BaylorKansas StNorthwesternOklahoma St
10.0%
<0.1%
CincinnatiHoustonNorthwesternOklahoma St
9.9%
<0.1%
CincinnatiKansas StNorthwesternUCF
9.9%
<0.1%
BaylorNorthwesternOklahoma StUtah
9.6%
<0.1%
Arizona StKansas StNorthwesternUCF
9.6%
<0.1%
Arizona StNorthwesternOklahoma StTexas Tech
9.6%
<0.1%
Kansas StNorthwesternOklahoma StTexas Tech
9.4%
<0.1%
Arizona StKansas StNorthwesternOklahoma St
9.4%
<0.1%
CincinnatiHoustonNorthwesternUCF
9.4%
<0.1%
HoustonKansas StNorthwesternUCF
9.4%
<0.1%
Arizona StCincinnatiHoustonNorthwestern
9.1%
<0.1%
Arizona StNorthwesternTexas TechUCF
9.0%
<0.1%
CincinnatiKansas StNorthwesternOklahoma St
8.7%
<0.1%
Kansas StNorthwesternOklahoma StUtah
8.7%
<0.1%
Arizona StBaylorNorthwesternUtah
8.5%
<0.1%
Arizona StBaylorKansas StNorthwestern
8.1%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiKansas StNorthwestern
8.0%
<0.1%
Arizona StNorthwesternOklahoma StUtah
7.9%
<0.1%
Arizona StNorthwesternUCFUtah
7.9%
<0.1%
BaylorNorthwesternUCFUtah
7.9%
<0.1%
HoustonKansas StNorthwesternOklahoma St
7.8%
<0.1%
Arizona StKansas StNorthwesternUtah
7.8%
<0.1%
NorthwesternOklahoma StTexas TechUCF
7.7%
<0.1%
CincinnatiNorthwesternOklahoma StUtah
7.6%
<0.1%
Kansas StNorthwesternTexas TechUCF
7.4%
<0.1%
Arizona StBaylorNorthwesternTexas Tech
7.2%
<0.1%
CincinnatiNorthwesternOklahoma StTexas Tech
7.2%
<0.1%
BaylorHoustonKansas StNorthwestern
7.1%
<0.1%
Arizona StHoustonNorthwesternTexas Tech
6.9%
<0.1%
Arizona StHoustonNorthwesternUtah
6.9%
<0.1%
HoustonNorthwesternOklahoma StUtah
6.7%
<0.1%
CincinnatiHoustonKansas StNorthwestern
6.5%
<0.1%
BaylorKansas StNorthwesternUtah
6.4%
<0.1%
HoustonNorthwesternOklahoma StTexas Tech
6.4%
<0.1%
BaylorNorthwesternTexas TechUCF
6.3%
<0.1%
Arizona StKansas StNorthwesternTexas Tech
6.1%
<0.1%
Arizona StCincinnatiNorthwesternTexas Tech
6.1%
<0.1%
Kansas StNorthwesternUCFUtah
6.0%
<0.1%
BaylorKansas StNorthwesternTexas Tech
5.6%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiNorthwesternTexas Tech
5.4%
<0.1%
BaylorHoustonNorthwesternUCF
5.3%
<0.1%
Arizona StCincinnatiNorthwesternUtah
5.2%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiNorthwesternUtah
5.2%
<0.1%
CincinnatiKansas StNorthwesternTexas Tech
4.9%
<0.1%
NorthwesternTexas TechUCFUtah
4.8%
<0.1%
CincinnatiNorthwesternUCFUtah
4.7%
<0.1%
NorthwesternOklahoma StTexas TechUtah
4.7%
<0.1%
Arizona StNorthwesternTexas TechUtah
4.7%
<0.1%
Arizona StCincinnatiKansas StNorthwestern
4.7%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiHoustonNorthwestern
4.7%
<0.1%
CincinnatiKansas StNorthwesternUtah
4.3%
<0.1%
CincinnatiHoustonNorthwesternUtah
4.3%
<0.1%
BaylorHoustonNorthwesternUtah
4.2%
<0.1%
CincinnatiNorthwesternTexas TechUCF
4.1%
<0.1%
BaylorHoustonNorthwesternTexas Tech
4.0%
<0.1%
Kansas StNorthwesternTexas TechUtah
3.8%
<0.1%
HoustonKansas StNorthwesternTexas Tech
3.6%
<0.1%
BaylorNorthwesternTexas TechUtah
3.6%
0.1%
CincinnatiNorthwesternTexas TechUtah
3.5%
0.1%
HoustonNorthwesternUCFUtah
3.4%
<0.1%
CincinnatiHoustonNorthwesternTexas Tech
3.0%
<0.1%
HoustonNorthwesternTexas TechUtah
2.8%
<0.1%
HoustonKansas StNorthwesternUtah
2.7%
<0.1%
HoustonNorthwesternTexas TechUCF
2.1%
<0.1%
BaylorCincinnatiOklahoma StUCF
0.5%
<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

ColoradoCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com