BYU

BYUCougars

7-1 T2nd (4-1) in B12

Data from 2026-11-02

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

36.6%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is BYU's probability of making the Big XII Championship Game?

BYU has a 36.6% chance to reach the Big XII Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. BYU's Big XII Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

What does BYU need to do to reach the Big XII Championship Game?

A perfect run to the end of the season puts BYU's Big XII Championship Game odds at 100%; even one more loss drops that to 49.0%.

What is the biggest game this week for BYU's Big XII Championship Game odds?

BYU's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating Utah would put its Big XII Championship Game odds at 71.9%, while a loss would drop them to 20.8%.

BYUSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
vsUtah TechUTU
W63-7
29/12
vsArizonaARIZ
W28-17
39/19
@Colorado StCSU
W41-23
510/03
@TCUTCU
W17-10
610/09
vsIowa StISU
W24-10
710/17
vsNotre DameND
W28-24
810/24
@UCFUCF
L31-39
910/31
vsArizona StASU
W27-20
1011/07
@UtahUTAH
Win prob:31%
1111/14
vsBaylorBAY
Win prob:70%
1211/21
@KansasKU
Win prob:74%
1311/28
vsCincinnatiCIN
Win prob:86%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

BYURecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-1
13.9%
100.0%
7-2
43.8%
49.0%
6-3
32.8%
3.9%
5-4
8.8%
0%
4-5
0.8%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible BYU CCG Opponents

if BYU makes the CCG

UTAHUtah
66.7%
TTUTexas Tech
20.9%
ARIZArizona
7.9%
HOUHouston
3.5%
OKSTOklahoma St
0.5%
BAYBaylor
0.4%
TCUTCU
<0.1%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

BYUThis Week's Impact

Game
BYUCCG OddsAway Wins
BYUCCG OddsHome Wins
Fri, Nov 6
TCUTCU@ArizonaARIZ
36.6%
(+0.0%)		36.6%
(-0.0%)
Sat, Nov 7
BYUBYU@UtahUTAH
71.9%
(+35.2%)		20.8%
(-15.8%)
Iowa StISU@BaylorBAY
37.3%
(+0.7%)		36.5%
(-0.1%)
Oklahoma StOKST@Kansas StKSU
35.6%
(-1.0%)		38.2%
(+1.6%)
CincinnatiCIN@HoustonHOU
47.7%
(+11.1%)		34.5%
(-2.1%)
UCFUCF@KansasKU
36.4%
(-0.2%)		36.7%
(+0.1%)
ColoradoCOLO@Arizona StASU
35.9%
(-0.8%)		37.0%
(+0.4%)
West VirginiaWVU@Texas TechTTU
44.8%
(+8.1%)		36.0%
(-0.6%)

Best Winner Combination for BYU

Arizona StArizona StateTCUTCUKansasKansasCincinnatiCincinnatiWest VirginiaWest VirginiaIowa StIowa StateKansas StKansas StateBYUBYU

CCG: 90.8% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for BYU

BYUBYU

CCG: 71.8% • Scenario: 30.9%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

BYULoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
BYU CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
13.9%
Any 1 loss
49.0%
43.8%
Kansas
75.3%
4.8%
Baylor
57.9%
5.9%
Cincinnati
52.1%
2.3%
Utah
43.0%
30.8%
Any 2 losses
3.9%
32.8%
CincinnatiKansas
6.3%
0.8%
KansasUtah
5.7%
10.6%
BaylorKansas
4.9%
2.0%
CincinnatiUtah
3.5%
5.1%
BaylorCincinnati
3.2%
1.0%
BaylorUtah
2.4%
13.3%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

BYUCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%PreseasonWeek 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com