BYUCougars
2-0 1st (1-0) in B12
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
53.6%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is BYU's probability of making the Big XII Championship Game?
BYU has a 53.6% chance to reach the Big XII Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. BYU's Big XII Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | W63-7 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W28-17 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:94% | |
| 5 | 10/03 | Win prob:71% | |
| 6 | 10/09 | Win prob:92% | |
| 7 | 10/17 | Win prob:20% | |
| 8 | 10/24 | Win prob:75% | |
| 9 | 10/31 | Win prob:86% | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:43% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:79% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:84% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:78% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 9.3% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 28.7% | 93.7% |
| 7-2 | 33.3% | 49.6% |
| 6-3 | 20.0% | 4.5% |
| 5-4 | 7.0% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 1.5% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Sep 18Friday, September 18 | |||
| 55.9% (+2.3%) | 53.0% (-0.6%) | ||
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 53.4% (-0.2%) | 53.9% (+0.3%) | ||
| 53.4% (-0.2%) | 53.6% (+0.0%) | ||
| 53.5% (-0.1%) | 53.6% (+0.0%) | ||
| 53.6% (+0.0%) | 53.6% (+0.0%) | ||
| 53.9% (+0.3%) | 53.6% (-0.0%) | ||
| 53.9% (+0.3%) | 53.6% (-0.0%) | ||
| 53.5% (-0.1%) | 53.6% (+0.0%) | ||
| 53.4% (-0.2%) | 53.6% (+0.0%) | ||
| 53.6% (+0.0%) | 53.4% (-0.2%) | ||
| 53.6% (-0.1%) | 53.7% (+0.1%) | ||
| 53.7% (+0.1%) | 53.6% (-0.0%) | ||
| 53.5% (-0.1%) | 53.6% (+0.0%) | ||
| 53.4% (-0.2%) | 53.6% (+0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
1.8%Any 1 loss
97.4%
12.5%
100.0%
0.1%
100.0%
7.0%
98.6%
0.6%
97.7%
0.3%
96.9%
0.1%
96.7%
0.4%
96.1%
0.3%
93.4%
0.7%
93.2%
0.5%
91.9%
2.4%Any 2 losses
84.1%
28.6%100.0%
0.5%98.9%
<0.1%98.7%
<0.1%98.4%
2.3%97.8%
<0.1%97.7%
<0.1%97.6%
0.6%97.3%
1.3%96.6%
1.9%95.5%
1.1%93.4%
<0.1%93.3%
2.9%92.9%
<0.1%92.6%
2.0%91.3%
9.5%90.9%
0.2%89.8%
<0.1%74.1%
<0.1%73.2%
<0.1%71.7%
0.1%69.6%
<0.1%65.6%
<0.1%64.8%
<0.1%64.4%
<0.1%64.1%
0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%59.8%
0.2%59.1%
<0.1%59.0%
0.1%59.0%
0.2%57.2%
<0.1%53.9%
<0.1%53.5%
0.1%53.3%
0.2%53.0%
0.2%52.4%
0.8%51.5%
0.4%51.3%
0.1%49.9%
<0.1%45.8%
0.2%45.7%
0.4%43.8%
0.6%39.3%
1.0%37.5%
0.7%Any 3 losses
46.1%
30.5%98.3%
0.2%98.3%
<0.1%97.7%
0.1%97.1%
<0.1%95.3%
<0.1%94.4%
0.2%91.9%
0.1%91.5%
0.6%85.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.1%
0.1%72.2%
0.2%72.1%
0.4%68.1%
<0.1%67.3%
0.4%66.7%
<0.1%66.0%
0.2%65.9%
0.1%64.8%
0.6%64.6%
<0.1%64.1%
0.4%63.8%
0.2%61.5%
<0.1%61.5%
0.2%61.1%
0.9%61.1%
<0.1%60.5%
0.5%59.6%
<0.1%58.9%
0.7%58.6%
<0.1%58.5%
<0.1%58.1%
<0.1%57.3%
0.3%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.8%
0.4%56.3%
0.5%55.8%
<0.1%55.2%
0.2%54.6%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%52.5%
3.1%52.3%
<0.1%52.1%
<0.1%51.4%
1.8%51.2%
0.8%51.1%
0.8%50.7%
<0.1%50.2%
0.3%49.9%
0.5%49.5%
<0.1%47.0%
0.8%46.1%
<0.1%45.2%
1.5%45.2%
<0.1%43.9%
<0.1%43.7%
2.5%41.0%
<0.1%39.7%
3.9%38.6%
<0.1%37.0%
2.7%31.3%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.4%
<0.1%11.7%
<0.1%11.7%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%10.2%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.8%
<0.1%7.3%
0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.2%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%6.0%
0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.5%
<0.1%5.5%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.2%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%5.1%
0.2%5.0%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.7%
0.1%4.7%
0.2%4.4%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.0%
0.3%3.9%
<0.1%3.6%
0.1%3.6%
0.2%3.2%
0.3%3.1%
0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.0%
0.2%2.9%
0.2%2.6%
0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.0%
0.3%Any 4 losses
9.1%
16.9%73.7%
<0.1%71.8%
<0.1%67.2%
<0.1%66.2%
<0.1%66.0%
<0.1%65.7%
<0.1%65.1%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%64.9%
<0.1%61.7%
<0.1%60.6%
<0.1%60.5%
<0.1%58.0%
<0.1%56.6%
<0.1%56.5%
<0.1%55.3%
<0.1%54.1%
<0.1%53.4%
0.2%52.5%
<0.1%50.7%
<0.1%49.7%
0.1%48.3%
<0.1%47.7%
0.1%47.3%
<0.1%46.9%
<0.1%42.7%
0.2%39.4%
0.3%38.1%
0.2%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.0%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.2%
<0.1%10.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.6%
0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.0%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.6%
0.2%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
0.1%8.2%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.8%
<0.1%7.5%
0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.8%
0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.5%
0.2%6.5%
0.6%6.4%
0.3%6.4%
0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.8%
0.1%5.8%
0.1%5.6%
0.2%5.5%
0.3%5.4%
0.3%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.2%
<0.1%5.2%
0.5%5.1%
0.1%5.0%
0.8%5.0%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.9%
0.1%4.8%
0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
0.5%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.3%
0.3%4.2%
0.3%4.2%
0.2%4.2%
0.7%4.0%
1.3%3.9%
0.9%3.8%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.7%
0.4%3.7%
0.5%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
0.6%3.3%
<0.1%3.0%
0.2%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
1.0%2.7%
0.7%2.7%
0.2%2.7%
0.4%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
1.1%2.1%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17