BYUCougars
0-0 T1st (0-0) in B12
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
39.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is BYU's probability of making the Big XII Championship Game?
BYU has a 39.5% chance to reach the Big XII Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. BYU's Big XII Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:69% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:91% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:60% | ||
| 10/09 | Win prob:84% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:27% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:69% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:74% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:55% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:70% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:68% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:75% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 3.6% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 14.5% | 97.7% |
| 7-2 | 26.2% | 70.1% |
| 6-3 | 27.3% | 12.3% |
| 5-4 | 17.9% | 0.0% |
| 4-5 | 7.8% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 2.2% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.4% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 39.8% (+0.3%) | 39.2% (-0.3%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.8%Any 1 loss
98.6%
5.5%100.0%
2.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%99.4%
0.3%98.9%
0.4%98.8%
0.2%98.6%
0.3%98.3%
0.2%97.2%
0.3%96.9%
0.3%96.7%
0.6%96.5%
0.6%Any 2 losses
87.5%
15.7%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.0%
0.4%98.6%
1.0%98.4%
1.0%98.2%
<0.1%98.2%
<0.1%97.8%
1.4%97.8%
<0.1%97.6%
0.7%97.5%
<0.1%97.3%
1.7%97.2%
0.7%97.1%
<0.1%97.0%
1.0%97.0%
0.9%96.4%
<0.1%96.0%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%93.9%
<0.1%93.1%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%81.5%
0.2%80.0%
0.1%78.6%
0.1%78.3%
0.1%77.6%
<0.1%76.3%
0.1%76.3%
0.1%75.0%
0.1%73.8%
<0.1%73.5%
0.3%73.5%
0.3%73.3%
<0.1%73.3%
0.1%72.4%
0.2%71.5%
0.3%70.8%
0.1%70.8%
0.1%69.3%
0.1%69.2%
0.1%68.8%
0.2%68.5%
0.1%68.3%
<0.1%67.9%
0.1%67.4%
0.2%66.7%
0.1%66.4%
0.2%65.6%
0.2%65.2%
0.1%65.0%
0.3%64.6%
0.2%63.8%
0.4%62.0%
0.2%61.7%
0.3%61.7%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
57.9%
24.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.4%
0.2%99.0%
0.1%98.9%
<0.1%98.9%
<0.1%98.2%
0.1%98.2%
0.1%97.8%
0.2%97.4%
<0.1%97.3%
<0.1%97.3%
<0.1%97.0%
<0.1%96.7%
0.2%96.6%
0.1%96.1%
0.1%95.8%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%91.1%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%84.4%
0.2%82.3%
<0.1%82.2%
0.2%81.8%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.4%
0.4%79.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.1%
<0.1%77.8%
0.2%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%76.1%
0.1%75.9%
0.3%75.4%
0.7%75.3%
0.2%75.0%
0.3%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
0.3%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.8%
0.4%74.7%
0.3%74.6%
0.3%74.6%
0.4%74.5%
0.6%74.3%
0.8%74.0%
0.3%73.7%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%73.6%
0.1%72.8%
0.4%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%71.7%
0.4%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
0.8%69.7%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.3%
0.5%68.0%
<0.1%67.7%
0.6%67.5%
0.3%67.5%
0.3%67.0%
0.4%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.4%
0.3%66.0%
0.6%65.8%
0.3%65.5%
0.7%65.2%
1.1%65.1%
0.6%65.1%
0.5%65.0%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%63.9%
0.3%63.7%
0.5%63.6%
0.8%63.6%
<0.1%63.3%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.3%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.4%
<0.1%59.1%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%58.6%
<0.1%57.7%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%35.5%
<0.1%26.9%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.8%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.1%
0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.4%
<0.1%20.3%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%18.9%
<0.1%18.9%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%18.4%
<0.1%18.4%
0.1%18.3%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.6%
0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.5%
<0.1%17.5%
<0.1%16.5%
<0.1%16.3%
<0.1%16.3%
0.1%16.0%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.3%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.0%
<0.1%13.5%
0.1%13.4%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.2%
0.1%13.2%
<0.1%12.8%
0.1%12.5%
0.1%12.0%
0.1%11.6%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.2%
0.1%10.7%
0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.4%
0.2%10.2%
0.1%10.1%
0.2%9.6%
<0.1%9.6%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.4%
0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.3%
0.2%9.0%
0.1%9.0%
<0.1%8.9%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.2%
0.1%8.2%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.1%
0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
0.2%7.0%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.5%
0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
0.2%5.6%
0.1%2.4%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
21.8%
20.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.1%
<0.1%88.0%
<0.1%87.1%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.8%
<0.1%78.4%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.7%
<0.1%76.6%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%76.1%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.7%
<0.1%73.9%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%71.9%
<0.1%71.8%
<0.1%71.0%
<0.1%70.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%69.0%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.2%
<0.1%68.0%
<0.1%67.9%
<0.1%67.5%
0.1%67.4%
<0.1%67.3%
<0.1%67.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.7%
<0.1%65.7%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%64.5%
<0.1%63.4%
<0.1%63.3%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%62.9%
<0.1%62.8%
<0.1%62.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.1%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.3%
<0.1%59.0%
<0.1%59.0%
<0.1%58.8%
0.1%57.3%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%56.0%
<0.1%55.3%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.8%
<0.1%21.7%
0.2%21.5%
<0.1%21.3%
0.1%20.2%
0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.7%
0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%16.9%
0.2%16.8%
0.2%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.5%
<0.1%16.2%
0.1%16.0%
<0.1%15.9%
0.3%15.8%
0.1%15.8%
0.2%15.6%
<0.1%15.5%
<0.1%15.5%
0.3%15.1%
0.4%14.8%
0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.7%
0.2%14.2%
0.1%14.2%
0.2%13.9%
0.2%13.9%
0.1%13.9%
0.2%13.7%
0.3%13.6%
0.1%13.6%
0.3%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.2%
0.2%13.0%
0.3%13.0%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.7%
0.2%12.6%
0.2%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.4%
0.4%12.4%
<0.1%12.3%
0.3%12.3%
0.1%12.2%
0.3%12.2%
0.3%12.2%
0.2%12.1%
0.1%12.0%
0.5%12.0%
0.3%11.9%
0.1%11.6%
0.2%11.3%
0.1%11.3%
0.3%11.3%
<0.1%11.2%
0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.0%
0.5%10.8%
0.2%10.8%
0.6%10.7%
0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
0.1%10.4%
0.2%10.3%
0.2%10.2%
<0.1%10.0%
0.2%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
0.4%9.9%
0.2%9.8%
0.3%9.7%
0.4%9.7%
0.1%9.4%
0.2%9.3%
0.4%9.2%
0.2%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.0%
0.1%8.8%
0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
0.2%8.1%
0.3%8.0%
0.3%7.8%
0.2%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.8%
0.1%6.8%
0.2%6.7%
<0.1%6.4%
0.5%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.3%
0.3%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%Data from 2026-08-26