UCF

UCFKnights

1-1 T2nd (0-0) in B12

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

2.6%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is UCF's probability of making the Big XII Championship Game?

UCF has a 2.6% chance to reach the Big XII Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. UCF's Big XII Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

UCFSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/03
vsBethune-CookmanBCU
W73-6
29/12
@PittsburghPITT
L7-12
39/19
vsGeorgia StGAST
Win prob:91%
49/26
vsTCUTCU
Win prob:53%
510/03
@HoustonHOU
Win prob:28%
610/10
@Oklahoma StOKST
Win prob:47%
810/24
vsBYUBYU
Win prob:25%
910/30
vsBaylorBAY
Win prob:47%
1011/07
@KansasKU
Win prob:54%
1111/14
vsArizona StASU
Win prob:58%
1211/20
vsIowa StISU
Win prob:71%
1311/28
@ColoradoCOLO
Win prob:42%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

UCFRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
9-0
0.1%
99.6%
8-1
0.9%
85.5%
7-2
4.7%
32.9%
6-3
13.5%
1.5%
5-4
23.7%
0%
4-5
26.7%
0%
3-6
19.4%
0%
2-7
8.7%
0%
1-8
2.2%
0%
0-9
0.2%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible UCF CCG Opponents

if UCF makes the CCG

TTUTexas Tech
33.5%
BYUBYU
26.5%
UTAHUtah
22.3%
KSUKansas St
8.1%
HOUHouston
3.1%
CINCincinnati
1.9%
BAYBaylor
1.9%
TCUTCU
1.2%
COLOColorado
0.4%
ARIZArizona
0.4%
ASUArizona St
0.4%
OKSTOklahoma St
0.4%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

UCFThis Week's Impact

Game
UCFCCG OddsAway Wins
UCFCCG OddsHome Wins
Fri, Sep 18
HoustonHOU@Texas TechTTU
3.3%
(+0.7%)		2.4%
(-0.2%)
Sat, Sep 19
Arizona StASU@KansasKU
2.6%
(+0.0%)		2.6%
(-0.0%)
Bowling GreenBGSU@Iowa StISU
2.6%
(+0.0%)		2.6%
(+0.0%)
TulaneTULN@Kansas StKSU
2.6%
(+0.0%)		2.6%
(+0.0%)
Miami OHM-OH@CincinnatiCIN
2.6%
(-0.0%)		2.6%
(+0.0%)
Utah StUSU@UtahUTAH
2.5%
(-0.1%)		2.6%
(+0.0%)
Louisiana TechLT@BaylorBAY
2.5%
(-0.1%)		2.6%
(+0.0%)
Georgia StGAST@UCFUCF
2.6%
(-0.0%)		2.6%
(+0.0%)
Murray StateMUR@Oklahoma StOKST
2.6%
(-0.0%)		2.6%
(+0.0%)
BYUBYU@Colorado StCSU
2.6%
(+0.0%)		2.6%
(-0.0%)
ColoradoCOLO@NorthwesternNU
2.6%
(+0.0%)		2.6%
(+0.0%)
West VirginiaWVU@VirginiaUVA
2.6%
(+0.0%)		2.6%
(-0.0%)
Arkansas StARST@TCUTCU
2.7%
(+0.1%)		2.6%
(+0.0%)
N IllinoisNIU@ArizonaARIZ
2.6%
(-0.0%)		2.6%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

UCFLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
UCF CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
99.7%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
85.9%
0.8%
Georgia St
98.4%
<0.1%
Kansas
93.4%
<0.1%
Baylor
91.1%
<0.1%
Iowa St
89.8%
<0.1%
Arizona St
89.5%
<0.1%
Oklahoma St
89.2%
<0.1%
Colorado
87.3%
<0.1%
Houston
84.1%
0.2%
TCU
84.1%
<0.1%
BYU
79.8%
0.2%
Any 2 losses
33.8%
4.4%
Georgia StIowa St
94.3%
<0.1%
Georgia StOklahoma St
92.4%
<0.1%
Georgia StKansas
89.6%
<0.1%
BaylorGeorgia St
85.5%
<0.1%
Arizona StGeorgia St
84.4%
<0.1%
ColoradoGeorgia St
82.9%
<0.1%
Georgia StTCU
82.3%
<0.1%
Georgia StHouston
81.4%
<0.1%
BYUGeorgia St
75.6%
<0.1%
Iowa StKansas
51.8%
<0.1%
BaylorOklahoma St
51.4%
<0.1%
Arizona StKansas
49.2%
<0.1%
KansasOklahoma St
48.9%
<0.1%
BaylorIowa St
48.2%
<0.1%
Arizona StOklahoma St
47.7%
<0.1%
ColoradoKansas
47.5%
<0.1%
Iowa StOklahoma St
47.1%
<0.1%
BaylorKansas
46.7%
<0.1%
ColoradoOklahoma St
45.7%
0.1%
BaylorColorado
42.8%
0.1%
Arizona StIowa St
42.3%
<0.1%
Arizona StBaylor
41.7%
<0.1%
Arizona StColorado
41.5%
<0.1%
HoustonOklahoma St
38.7%
0.2%
HoustonIowa St
37.9%
<0.1%
ColoradoIowa St
36.1%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StTCU
35.8%
<0.1%
HoustonKansas
35.8%
0.1%
ColoradoHouston
35.7%
0.2%
BaylorTCU
35.1%
<0.1%
BaylorHouston
34.4%
0.2%
Iowa StTCU
34.2%
<0.1%
KansasTCU
34.2%
<0.1%
Arizona StTCU
33.1%
<0.1%
BYUOklahoma St
30.9%
0.2%
BYUKansas
30.9%
0.2%
Arizona StHouston
30.8%
0.1%
BYUIowa St
30.6%
<0.1%
BYUBaylor
29.4%
0.2%
Arizona StBYU
28.2%
0.1%
ColoradoTCU
28.0%
<0.1%
HoustonTCU
27.1%
0.2%
BYUColorado
25.5%
0.3%
BYUHouston
21.8%
0.5%
BYUTCU
19.3%
0.2%
Any 3 losses
2.7%
11.9%
Arizona StGeorgia StIowa St
66.7%
<0.1%
Georgia StKansasOklahoma St
57.6%
<0.1%
Georgia StIowa StKansas
55.6%
<0.1%
BaylorGeorgia StOklahoma St
52.5%
<0.1%
BaylorGeorgia StIowa St
50.0%
<0.1%
Arizona StBaylorGeorgia St
46.4%
<0.1%
Georgia StOklahoma StTCU
46.3%
<0.1%
ColoradoGeorgia StIowa St
45.7%
<0.1%
BaylorColoradoGeorgia St
44.7%
<0.1%
Arizona StGeorgia StOklahoma St
44.4%
<0.1%
ColoradoGeorgia StOklahoma St
44.0%
<0.1%
BaylorGeorgia StKansas
42.9%
<0.1%
Arizona StColoradoGeorgia St
42.4%
<0.1%
Georgia StHoustonKansas
38.0%
<0.1%
ColoradoGeorgia StHouston
37.0%
<0.1%
Arizona StGeorgia StKansas
36.1%
<0.1%
BaylorGeorgia StTCU
35.8%
<0.1%
Georgia StHoustonOklahoma St
35.8%
<0.1%
ColoradoGeorgia StKansas
34.7%
<0.1%
Arizona StGeorgia StTCU
33.3%
<0.1%
Georgia StIowa StTCU
32.1%
<0.1%
Arizona StGeorgia StHouston
30.8%
<0.1%
ColoradoGeorgia StTCU
30.8%
<0.1%
BYUGeorgia StOklahoma St
30.5%
<0.1%
Georgia StIowa StOklahoma St
30.4%
<0.1%
Georgia StHoustonIowa St
30.2%
<0.1%
BYUGeorgia StKansas
29.9%
<0.1%
BYUColoradoGeorgia St
29.6%
<0.1%
Georgia StKansasTCU
28.6%
<0.1%
BaylorGeorgia StHouston
27.3%
<0.1%
BYUBaylorGeorgia St
26.4%
<0.1%
Arizona StBYUGeorgia St
25.9%
<0.1%
Georgia StHoustonTCU
24.4%
<0.1%
BYUGeorgia StTCU
23.5%
<0.1%
BYUGeorgia StIowa St
20.5%
<0.1%
BYUGeorgia StHouston
20.0%
<0.1%
Arizona StIowa StKansas
5.2%
<0.1%
Iowa StKansasOklahoma St
5.1%
<0.1%
Arizona StKansasOklahoma St
4.8%
<0.1%
ColoradoIowa StOklahoma St
4.1%
<0.1%
ColoradoKansasOklahoma St
3.9%
<0.1%
BaylorColoradoOklahoma St
3.6%
0.1%
Arizona StOklahoma StTCU
3.3%
<0.1%
BaylorKansasOklahoma St
3.3%
<0.1%
ColoradoHoustonOklahoma St
3.2%
0.3%
BaylorHoustonOklahoma St
3.2%
0.2%
Arizona StBaylorKansas
3.0%
<0.1%
ColoradoIowa StKansas
2.8%
<0.1%
KansasOklahoma StTCU
2.8%
<0.1%
Arizona StColoradoOklahoma St
2.8%
<0.1%
Arizona StBaylorColorado
2.8%
<0.1%
BaylorIowa StOklahoma St
2.7%
<0.1%
Arizona StIowa StOklahoma St
2.6%
<0.1%
Arizona StBaylorOklahoma St
2.6%
<0.1%
HoustonIowa StOklahoma St
2.6%
<0.1%
Arizona StBaylorTCU
2.5%
<0.1%
BaylorIowa StKansas
2.5%
<0.1%
Iowa StKansasTCU
2.4%
<0.1%
BYUIowa StOklahoma St
2.3%
<0.1%
HoustonKansasOklahoma St
2.3%
0.2%
BYUKansasOklahoma St
2.2%
0.2%
BaylorColoradoKansas
2.2%
<0.1%
BaylorOklahoma StTCU
2.2%
<0.1%
Arizona StKansasTCU
2.1%
<0.1%
Arizona StIowa StTCU
2.1%
<0.1%
Arizona StColoradoKansas
2.1%
<0.1%
BYUBaylorIowa St
2.1%
0.1%
HoustonIowa StKansas
2.1%
<0.1%
BYUBaylorOklahoma St
2.1%
0.3%
ColoradoHoustonIowa St
2.1%
0.1%
BaylorKansasTCU
2.0%
<0.1%
Arizona StBYUKansas
2.0%
0.1%
BaylorHoustonKansas
2.0%
0.2%
Arizona StBaylorIowa St
2.0%
<0.1%
ColoradoIowa StTCU
2.0%
<0.1%
BYUIowa StKansas
1.9%
<0.1%
BYUBaylorKansas
1.9%
0.2%
Arizona StBaylorHouston
1.9%
0.1%
Arizona StColoradoHouston
1.9%
0.2%
ColoradoHoustonKansas
1.9%
0.2%
BYUKansasTCU
1.8%
0.2%
BYUColoradoIowa St
1.8%
0.1%
Arizona StHoustonIowa St
1.8%
<0.1%
BaylorColoradoHouston
1.8%
0.3%
BaylorColoradoIowa St
1.7%
<0.1%
Arizona StBYUOklahoma St
1.7%
0.2%
BYUColoradoOklahoma St
1.7%
0.3%
Arizona StHoustonOklahoma St
1.7%
0.1%
Arizona StHoustonKansas
1.6%
0.1%
Arizona StBYUBaylor
1.5%
0.2%
BaylorHoustonIowa St
1.5%
<0.1%
ColoradoOklahoma StTCU
1.5%
0.1%
Arizona StBYUIowa St
1.4%
<0.1%
BYUIowa StTCU
1.4%
<0.1%
HoustonKansasTCU
1.4%
0.1%
BaylorIowa StTCU
1.4%
<0.1%
HoustonOklahoma StTCU
1.4%
0.2%
BYUHoustonKansas
1.3%
0.5%
Arizona StBYUColorado
1.3%
0.2%
Iowa StOklahoma StTCU
1.3%
<0.1%
Arizona StColoradoIowa St
1.2%
<0.1%
BYUBaylorTCU
1.2%
0.2%
ColoradoKansasTCU
1.2%
<0.1%
HoustonIowa StTCU
1.1%
<0.1%
BYUBaylorColorado
1.1%
0.3%
BYUColoradoKansas
1.1%
0.2%
Arizona StColoradoTCU
1.1%
<0.1%
BaylorColoradoTCU
1.0%
0.1%
Arizona StHoustonTCU
1.0%
0.1%
BYUHoustonOklahoma St
0.9%
0.6%
BYUHoustonIowa St
0.9%
0.2%
Arizona StBYUHouston
0.8%
0.4%
BYUBaylorHouston
0.8%
0.6%
BYUColoradoTCU
0.7%
0.3%
BYUColoradoHouston
0.7%
0.8%
ColoradoHoustonTCU
0.7%
0.2%
BaylorHoustonTCU
0.5%
0.2%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

UCFCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com