UCFKnights
0-0 T1st (0-0) in B12
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
3.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is UCF's probability of making the Big XII Championship Game?
UCF has a 3.5% chance to reach the Big XII Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. UCF's Big XII Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/03 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:34% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:88% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:46% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:33% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:41% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:31% | ||
| 10/30 | Win prob:46% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:43% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:50% | ||
| 11/20 | Win prob:63% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:39% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.6% | 96.9% |
| 7-2 | 3.2% | 64.0% |
| 6-3 | 9.9% | 8.6% |
| 5-4 | 20.2% | 0.0% |
| 4-5 | 26.3% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 22.7% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 12.6% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 3.9% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 3.6% (+0.1%) | 3.4% (-0.1%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
96.3%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%92.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
75.3%
1.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.1%
<0.1%97.0%
<0.1%96.2%
<0.1%96.1%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.5%
<0.1%81.5%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.4%
<0.1%73.8%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%68.0%
<0.1%67.9%
<0.1%63.3%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.0%
<0.1%57.6%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.7%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
32.1%
4.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%76.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.0%
<0.1%72.9%
<0.1%72.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.2%
<0.1%71.0%
<0.1%71.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.6%
<0.1%68.3%
<0.1%68.1%
<0.1%68.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.8%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%62.9%
<0.1%62.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.4%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.2%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%51.2%
<0.1%51.1%
<0.1%50.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%47.3%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%42.3%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%27.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.4%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%17.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%13.5%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.9%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
13.2%
5.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.9%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%13.5%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.6%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.9%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.7%
0.1%10.6%
<0.1%10.4%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.7%
0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%9.2%
0.2%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.6%
0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.6%
0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.2%
0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
0.2%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.4%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.6%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%0.8%
0.1%Data from 2026-08-26