BaylorBears
0-0 T1st (0-0) in B12
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
7.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Baylor's probability of making the Big XII Championship Game?
Baylor has a 7.8% chance to reach the Big XII Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Baylor's Big XII Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:37% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:86% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:60% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:48% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:56% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:53% | ||
| 10/30 | Win prob:54% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:72% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:30% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:26% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:43% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 1.3% | 99.2% |
| 7-2 | 5.9% | 71.5% |
| 6-3 | 15.6% | 13.5% |
| 5-4 | 25.2% | 0.1% |
| 4-5 | 25.8% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 17.2% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 7.1% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 1.6% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 7.6% (-0.1%) | 7.9% (+0.1%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
99.5%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.0%
0.1%Any 2 losses
80.5%
2.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.9%
0.2%98.4%
<0.1%96.8%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%88.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.0%
<0.1%83.9%
<0.1%82.9%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%77.1%
<0.1%76.8%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%75.7%
<0.1%75.5%
0.1%75.4%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.7%
<0.1%74.0%
0.1%72.2%
<0.1%72.0%
<0.1%70.9%
<0.1%70.4%
0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.5%
<0.1%68.3%
<0.1%68.2%
<0.1%65.7%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%63.3%
<0.1%49.5%
0.2%Any 3 losses
39.2%
8.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%92.0%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.5%
<0.1%88.4%
<0.1%88.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.0%
<0.1%85.9%
<0.1%84.9%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.8%
<0.1%82.7%
<0.1%82.6%
<0.1%82.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%76.4%
<0.1%75.9%
0.2%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.0%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%73.2%
0.1%72.4%
0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.9%
0.1%70.5%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.5%
<0.1%69.0%
<0.1%68.3%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.7%
0.2%65.5%
0.2%65.2%
0.1%64.6%
0.1%62.9%
0.2%60.4%
0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%51.1%
0.4%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.1%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%25.5%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.3%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.0%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.2%
<0.1%21.1%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.5%
0.1%19.2%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.9%
0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.5%
<0.1%17.1%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.2%
0.1%16.2%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.6%
<0.1%14.5%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.2%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.3%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.9%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.9%
<0.1%10.4%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%9.2%
<0.1%8.9%
0.1%8.9%
0.1%8.1%
0.2%7.5%
<0.1%7.4%
0.2%7.1%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.4%
0.3%6.2%
0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.7%
0.2%3.7%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
18.6%
9.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%51.2%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.3%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%34.9%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.1%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.9%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.9%
<0.1%26.8%
<0.1%26.1%
<0.1%26.1%
<0.1%25.8%
<0.1%25.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.7%
<0.1%24.0%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%22.9%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.9%
<0.1%21.6%
<0.1%21.6%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.0%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.7%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.6%
<0.1%19.6%
<0.1%19.6%
<0.1%19.5%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.4%
<0.1%18.4%
0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.7%
0.2%17.6%
0.2%17.6%
<0.1%16.8%
0.2%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.5%
0.1%16.4%
0.1%16.4%
<0.1%16.1%
0.1%16.0%
0.1%15.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.6%
0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.1%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%13.8%
0.2%13.8%
<0.1%13.7%
0.2%13.6%
<0.1%13.4%
0.1%13.2%
0.1%12.8%
0.1%12.7%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.3%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.9%
0.2%10.8%
0.1%10.8%
0.1%10.6%
0.2%10.4%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.6%
0.3%9.5%
0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.4%
0.2%9.4%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.8%
0.4%8.6%
0.5%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.6%
0.3%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.6%
0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
0.3%2.8%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%Data from 2026-08-26