Baylor

BaylorBears

5-3 T4th (3-2) in B12

Data from 2026-11-02

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

2.9%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Baylor's probability of making the Big XII Championship Game?

Baylor has a 2.9% chance to reach the Big XII Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Baylor's Big XII Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

What does Baylor need to do to reach the Big XII Championship Game?

A perfect run to the end of the season puts Baylor's Big XII Championship Game odds at 82.9%; even one more loss drops that to 1.4%.

What is the biggest game this week for Baylor's Big XII Championship Game odds?

Baylor's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating Iowa State would put its Big XII Championship Game odds at 3.4%, while a loss would drop them to 0.3%.

BaylorSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
vsAuburnAUB(N)
L16-17
29/12
vsPrairie View A&MPV
W44-3
39/19
vsLouisiana TechLT
W36-19
49/26
vsColoradoCOLO
W23-13
510/03
@Arizona StASU
W55-19
710/17
vsTCUTCU
L6-17
810/24
@KansasKU
L24-25
910/30
@UCFUCF
W41-9
1011/07
vsIowa StISU
Win prob:83%
1111/14
@BYUBYU
Win prob:30%
1211/21
vsTexas TechTTU
Win prob:40%
1311/28
@HoustonHOU
Win prob:33%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

BaylorRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
7-2
3.2%
82.9%
6-3
19.9%
1.1%
5-4
41.1%
0%
4-5
31.0%
0%
3-6
4.7%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Baylor CCG Opponents

if Baylor makes the CCG

UTAHUtah
90.4%
BYUBYU
5.5%
TTUTexas Tech
2.4%
ARIZArizona
1.4%
OKSTOklahoma St
0.3%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

BaylorThis Week's Impact

Game
BaylorCCG OddsAway Wins
BaylorCCG OddsHome Wins
Fri, Nov 6
TCUTCU@ArizonaARIZ
3.2%
(+0.3%)		2.8%
(-0.1%)
Sat, Nov 7
BYUBYU@UtahUTAH
2.5%
(-0.4%)		3.1%
(+0.2%)
Iowa StISU@BaylorBAY
0.3%
(-2.6%)		3.4%
(+0.5%)
Oklahoma StOKST@Kansas StKSU
2.8%
(-0.1%)		3.0%
(+0.1%)
CincinnatiCIN@HoustonHOU
3.0%
(+0.1%)		2.9%
(-0.0%)
UCFUCF@KansasKU
2.9%
(+0.0%)		2.9%
(-0.0%)
ColoradoCOLO@Arizona StASU
2.9%
(+0.0%)		2.9%
(-0.0%)
West VirginiaWVU@Texas TechTTU
3.9%
(+0.9%)		2.9%
(-0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for Baylor

Arizona StArizona StateTCUTCUUCFUCFCincinnatiCincinnatiWest VirginiaWest VirginiaBaylorBaylorKansas StKansas StateUtahUtah

CCG: 7.3% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Baylor

BaylorBaylor

CCG: 3.4% • Scenario: 83.4%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

BaylorLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Baylor CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
82.9%
3.2%
Any 1 loss
1.4%
15.0%
Iowa St
7.4%
0.7%
Houston
1.3%
6.7%
BYU
1.0%
7.6%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

BaylorCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%PreseasonWeek 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com