Baylor

BaylorBears

1-1 T2nd (0-0) in B12

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

6.0%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Baylor's probability of making the Big XII Championship Game?

Baylor has a 6.0% chance to reach the Big XII Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Baylor's Big XII Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

BaylorSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
vsAuburnAUB(N)
L16-17
29/12
vsPrairie View A&MPV
W44-3
39/19
vsLouisiana TechLT
Win prob:93%
49/26
vsColoradoCOLO
Win prob:70%
510/03
@Arizona StASU
Win prob:52%
710/17
vsTCUTCU
Win prob:64%
810/24
@KansasKU
Win prob:66%
910/30
@UCFUCF
Win prob:53%
1011/07
vsIowa StISU
Win prob:80%
1111/14
@BYUBYU
Win prob:21%
1211/21
vsTexas TechTTU
Win prob:33%
1311/28
@HoustonHOU
Win prob:38%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

BaylorRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
9-0
0.2%
100.0%
8-1
1.9%
93.7%
7-2
8.4%
41.8%
6-3
19.8%
2.4%
5-4
27.8%
0%
4-5
24.0%
0%
3-6
12.9%
0%
2-7
4.2%
0%
1-8
0.8%
0%
0-9
0.1%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Baylor CCG Opponents

if Baylor makes the CCG

BYUBYU
30.3%
TTUTexas Tech
28.7%
UTAHUtah
23.2%
KSUKansas St
8.4%
HOUHouston
3.0%
CINCincinnati
2.4%
TCUTCU
1.2%
UCFUCF
0.8%
COLOColorado
0.5%
ARIZArizona
0.5%
ASUArizona St
0.5%
OKSTOklahoma St
0.3%
WVUWest Virginia
0.2%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

BaylorThis Week's Impact

Game
BaylorCCG OddsAway Wins
BaylorCCG OddsHome Wins
Fri, Sep 18
HoustonHOU@Texas TechTTU
6.9%
(+0.9%)		5.7%
(-0.3%)
Sat, Sep 19
Arizona StASU@KansasKU
5.9%
(-0.0%)		6.0%
(+0.1%)
Bowling GreenBGSU@Iowa StISU
6.1%
(+0.1%)		6.0%
(+0.0%)
TulaneTULN@Kansas StKSU
6.0%
(+0.1%)		5.9%
(-0.0%)
Miami OHM-OH@CincinnatiCIN
6.1%
(+0.1%)		6.0%
(+0.0%)
Utah StUSU@UtahUTAH
5.9%
(-0.0%)		6.0%
(+0.0%)
Louisiana TechLT@BaylorBAY
5.8%
(-0.1%)		6.0%
(+0.0%)
Georgia StGAST@UCFUCF
5.9%
(-0.0%)		6.0%
(+0.0%)
Murray StateMUR@Oklahoma StOKST
6.0%
(+0.0%)		6.0%
(+0.0%)
BYUBYU@Colorado StCSU
6.0%
(+0.0%)		6.0%
(+0.0%)
ColoradoCOLO@NorthwesternNU
6.0%
(+0.0%)		5.9%
(-0.0%)
West VirginiaWVU@VirginiaUVA
6.0%
(+0.1%)		5.9%
(-0.0%)
Arkansas StARST@TCUTCU
6.0%
(+0.0%)		6.0%
(+0.0%)
N IllinoisNIU@ArizonaARIZ
5.8%
(-0.2%)		6.0%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

BaylorLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Baylor CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.2%
Any 1 loss
93.8%
1.8%
Louisiana Tech
100.0%
<0.1%
UCF
99.2%
0.1%
Kansas
97.5%
<0.1%
Arizona St
97.5%
0.1%
Iowa St
97.4%
<0.1%
Colorado
94.9%
<0.1%
Houston
93.6%
0.3%
TCU
93.4%
0.1%
Texas Tech
93.0%
0.3%
BYU
91.4%
0.6%
Any 2 losses
42.8%
7.9%
Louisiana TechUCF
99.1%
<0.1%
Arizona StLouisiana Tech
98.4%
<0.1%
Iowa StLouisiana Tech
96.5%
<0.1%
KansasLouisiana Tech
95.2%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechTCU
95.0%
<0.1%
HoustonLouisiana Tech
92.9%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechTexas Tech
92.4%
<0.1%
BYULouisiana Tech
89.1%
<0.1%
ColoradoLouisiana Tech
88.5%
<0.1%
Iowa StUCF
71.5%
<0.1%
KansasUCF
70.2%
<0.1%
Arizona StUCF
67.7%
0.1%
ColoradoUCF
65.8%
<0.1%
Iowa StKansas
64.4%
<0.1%
Arizona StIowa St
62.5%
<0.1%
HoustonUCF
59.3%
0.2%
Arizona StKansas
58.3%
<0.1%
Arizona StColorado
58.2%
<0.1%
Arizona StTCU
57.9%
<0.1%
ColoradoKansas
55.5%
<0.1%
TCUUCF
55.0%
<0.1%
Texas TechUCF
53.8%
0.3%
ColoradoIowa St
52.9%
<0.1%
KansasTCU
52.8%
<0.1%
HoustonKansas
52.6%
0.1%
Arizona StHouston
52.3%
0.2%
ColoradoHouston
51.4%
0.1%
BYUUCF
50.3%
0.5%
Iowa StTCU
50.2%
<0.1%
ColoradoTCU
49.6%
<0.1%
Arizona StTexas Tech
48.0%
0.3%
HoustonIowa St
47.2%
<0.1%
KansasTexas Tech
45.5%
0.2%
ColoradoTexas Tech
44.5%
0.1%
BYUIowa St
44.3%
0.1%
BYUKansas
43.8%
0.3%
Arizona StBYU
42.4%
0.5%
Iowa StTexas Tech
42.3%
<0.1%
HoustonTCU
41.9%
0.1%
HoustonTexas Tech
39.3%
0.5%
BYUColorado
38.4%
0.3%
TCUTexas Tech
33.1%
0.2%
BYUHouston
32.5%
1.0%
BYUTCU
30.3%
0.3%
BYUTexas Tech
25.9%
1.3%
Any 3 losses
3.6%
19.0%
Iowa StLouisiana TechUCF
88.9%
<0.1%
Arizona StLouisiana TechUCF
73.6%
<0.1%
KansasLouisiana TechUCF
72.7%
<0.1%
Arizona StIowa StLouisiana Tech
67.9%
<0.1%
Arizona StKansasLouisiana Tech
61.1%
<0.1%
Iowa StKansasLouisiana Tech
59.1%
<0.1%
ColoradoKansasLouisiana Tech
57.1%
<0.1%
HoustonLouisiana TechUCF
55.4%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechTexas TechUCF
55.4%
<0.1%
ColoradoIowa StLouisiana Tech
55.0%
<0.1%
ColoradoLouisiana TechTCU
54.3%
<0.1%
ColoradoLouisiana TechUCF
53.7%
<0.1%
Arizona StHoustonLouisiana Tech
50.8%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechTCUUCF
50.0%
<0.1%
Arizona StColoradoLouisiana Tech
50.0%
<0.1%
Arizona StLouisiana TechTCU
49.1%
<0.1%
Iowa StLouisiana TechTexas Tech
49.1%
<0.1%
HoustonIowa StLouisiana Tech
48.4%
<0.1%
Iowa StLouisiana TechTCU
47.4%
<0.1%
BYUIowa StLouisiana Tech
46.9%
<0.1%
BYULouisiana TechUCF
46.9%
<0.1%
HoustonLouisiana TechTCU
45.7%
<0.1%
HoustonKansasLouisiana Tech
45.5%
<0.1%
Arizona StLouisiana TechTexas Tech
44.6%
<0.1%
BYUKansasLouisiana Tech
43.3%
<0.1%
KansasLouisiana TechTCU
42.9%
<0.1%
ColoradoLouisiana TechTexas Tech
42.4%
<0.1%
ColoradoHoustonLouisiana Tech
42.4%
<0.1%
KansasLouisiana TechTexas Tech
40.8%
<0.1%
Arizona StBYULouisiana Tech
39.9%
<0.1%
Louisiana TechTCUTexas Tech
39.3%
<0.1%
HoustonLouisiana TechTexas Tech
37.9%
<0.1%
BYUColoradoLouisiana Tech
37.3%
<0.1%
BYUHoustonLouisiana Tech
31.6%
<0.1%
BYULouisiana TechTCU
28.2%
<0.1%
BYULouisiana TechTexas Tech
27.5%
<0.1%
Arizona StIowa StUCF
9.9%
<0.1%
Arizona StKansasUCF
8.6%
<0.1%
Arizona StColoradoKansas
6.3%
<0.1%
KansasTCUUCF
6.3%
<0.1%
Arizona StIowa StKansas
6.1%
<0.1%
Iowa StKansasUCF
6.0%
<0.1%
ColoradoIowa StUCF
5.5%
<0.1%
Iowa StKansasTexas Tech
5.5%
<0.1%
Arizona StColoradoUCF
5.5%
<0.1%
Arizona StColoradoIowa St
5.2%
<0.1%
Arizona StHoustonIowa St
5.2%
<0.1%
BYUKansasUCF
5.1%
0.3%
Iowa StKansasTCU
5.1%
<0.1%
Arizona StHoustonKansas
5.0%
0.1%
Arizona StIowa StTCU
4.9%
<0.1%
HoustonIowa StUCF
4.8%
<0.1%
Iowa StTexas TechUCF
4.7%
<0.1%
ColoradoTexas TechUCF
4.7%
0.1%
Arizona StTexas TechUCF
4.5%
0.3%
HoustonKansasUCF
4.4%
0.1%
BYUIowa StUCF
4.4%
0.1%
Arizona StHoustonUCF
4.4%
0.2%
ColoradoHoustonUCF
4.4%
0.1%
HoustonIowa StKansas
4.3%
<0.1%
Iowa StTCUUCF
4.3%
<0.1%
Arizona StTCUUCF
4.1%
<0.1%
Arizona StKansasTexas Tech
4.0%
0.2%
Arizona StBYUIowa St
4.0%
0.1%
ColoradoKansasUCF
3.9%
<0.1%
KansasTexas TechUCF
3.9%
0.1%
Arizona StBYUUCF
3.8%
0.5%
Arizona StHoustonTCU
3.8%
0.1%
Arizona StColoradoTCU
3.6%
<0.1%
BYUIowa StKansas
3.5%
<0.1%
Arizona StBYUKansas
3.5%
0.3%
ColoradoHoustonIowa St
3.4%
<0.1%
Arizona StIowa StTexas Tech
3.4%
<0.1%
ColoradoTCUUCF
3.3%
<0.1%
Arizona StKansasTCU
3.2%
<0.1%
ColoradoHoustonTCU
3.2%
<0.1%
HoustonTexas TechUCF
3.1%
0.5%
ColoradoHoustonKansas
3.0%
<0.1%
KansasTCUTexas Tech
2.9%
0.1%
HoustonKansasTCU
2.9%
<0.1%
Arizona StColoradoHouston
2.9%
0.1%
HoustonTCUUCF
2.9%
0.1%
Arizona StTCUTexas Tech
2.9%
0.2%
ColoradoIowa StTexas Tech
2.7%
<0.1%
BYUColoradoUCF
2.6%
0.2%
TCUTexas TechUCF
2.6%
0.2%
BYUHoustonKansas
2.6%
0.5%
HoustonKansasTexas Tech
2.6%
0.3%
BYUTCUUCF
2.6%
0.3%
BYUColoradoKansas
2.5%
0.1%
BYUKansasTCU
2.5%
0.2%
ColoradoHoustonTexas Tech
2.5%
0.2%
Arizona StHoustonTexas Tech
2.5%
0.5%
BYUHoustonIowa St
2.5%
0.3%
Arizona StBYUTCU
2.4%
0.3%
BYUHoustonUCF
2.4%
0.9%
BYUColoradoIowa St
2.3%
<0.1%
HoustonIowa StTexas Tech
2.3%
0.1%
Arizona StColoradoTexas Tech
2.2%
0.1%
ColoradoTCUTexas Tech
2.2%
<0.1%
BYUTexas TechUCF
2.2%
1.1%
ColoradoIowa StKansas
2.1%
<0.1%
BYUIowa StTCU
2.1%
<0.1%
Arizona StBYUColorado
2.1%
0.2%
HoustonIowa StTCU
2.1%
<0.1%
ColoradoKansasTexas Tech
2.0%
<0.1%
Arizona StBYUHouston
1.9%
0.9%
BYUKansasTexas Tech
1.8%
0.7%
Arizona StBYUTexas Tech
1.7%
1.1%
Iowa StTCUTexas Tech
1.6%
<0.1%
ColoradoKansasTCU
1.6%
<0.1%
BYUIowa StTexas Tech
1.6%
0.3%
BYUColoradoHouston
1.5%
0.4%
BYUColoradoTCU
1.3%
0.1%
BYUColoradoTexas Tech
1.2%
0.5%
BYUHoustonTexas Tech
1.1%
2.0%
HoustonTCUTexas Tech
1.1%
0.3%
ColoradoIowa StTCU
1.1%
<0.1%
BYUHoustonTCU
1.0%
0.5%
BYUTCUTexas Tech
1.0%
0.7%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

BaylorCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com