West VirginiaMountaineers
0-0 T1st (0-0) in B12
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.5%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is West Virginia's probability of making the Big XII Championship Game?
West Virginia has a 1.5% chance to reach the Big XII Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. West Virginia's Big XII Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:81% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:33% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:48% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:47% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:40% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:46% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:31% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:9% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:50% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:40% | ||
| 11/27 | Win prob:26% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.1% | 96.4% |
| 7-2 | 1.2% | 68.4% |
| 6-3 | 5.2% | 10.7% |
| 5-4 | 14.2% | 0.1% |
| 4-5 | 24.6% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 27.2% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 18.7% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 7.4% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 1.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1.5% (-0.0%) | 1.5% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Any 1 loss
97.5%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
71.1%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%92.6%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.5%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
31.7%
1.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.5%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%60.3%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.0%
<0.1%58.7%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%52.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.0%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.7%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%8.9%
<0.1%8.9%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.1%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
14.8%
2.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.7%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.6%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.3%
<0.1%17.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.5%
<0.1%16.2%
<0.1%15.5%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.8%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.2%
0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
0.2%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
0.1%6.7%
<0.1%5.5%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.1%
0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.1%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%Data from 2026-08-26