Arizona StateSun Devils
0-0 T1st (0-0) in B12
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
4.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Arizona State's probability of making the Big XII Championship Game?
Arizona State has a 4.8% chance to reach the Big XII Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Arizona State's Big XII Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:15% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:55% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:52% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:71% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:15% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:55% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:26% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:56% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:50% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:59% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:39% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.6% | 99.3% |
| 7-2 | 3.5% | 71.9% |
| 6-3 | 11.5% | 14.8% |
| 5-4 | 22.1% | 0.1% |
| 4-5 | 27.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 21.3% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 10.4% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 2.8% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 4.8% (-0.1%) | 4.9% (+0.1%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
100.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
85.8%
0.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.2%
0.1%98.5%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.6%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%52.6%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
55.0%
3.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%86.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.4%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.8%
<0.1%81.5%
<0.1%81.4%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%76.6%
0.1%76.5%
0.1%75.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.8%
<0.1%73.7%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%73.2%
0.1%71.8%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%67.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.5%
0.2%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.1%
<0.1%47.3%
0.3%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.1%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.9%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
21.9%
7.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.5%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.2%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%75.9%
<0.1%75.9%
<0.1%75.7%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.5%
<0.1%70.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.6%
<0.1%68.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.3%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.4%
<0.1%55.7%
0.2%54.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.0%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.3%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.8%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%22.6%
0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.3%
0.1%21.1%
<0.1%21.0%
<0.1%20.9%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.6%
<0.1%20.4%
<0.1%20.3%
<0.1%20.2%
0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.1%
0.1%17.4%
<0.1%16.9%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.4%
0.1%16.0%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%13.8%
0.2%13.6%
0.2%13.5%
0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
0.3%13.2%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.8%
0.2%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.3%
0.3%12.2%
<0.1%12.0%
0.3%11.8%
<0.1%11.7%
<0.1%11.3%
0.1%11.1%
0.2%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
0.3%11.0%
<0.1%10.7%
0.3%10.0%
0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.9%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.6%
0.5%7.0%
<0.1%6.6%
0.3%6.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%Data from 2026-08-26