Arizona St

Arizona StateSun Devils

1-1 T2nd (0-0) in B12

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

1.5%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Arizona State's probability of making the Big XII Championship Game?

Arizona State has a 1.5% chance to reach the Big XII Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Arizona State's Big XII Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

Arizona StSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
vsMorgan StateMORG
W70-7
29/12
@Texas A&MTA&M
L20-48
39/19
vsKansasKU(N)
Win prob:63%
510/03
vsBaylorBAY
Win prob:48%
610/10
vsHawaiiHAW
Win prob:91%
710/17
@Texas TechTTU
Win prob:13%
810/24
vsKansas StKSU
Win prob:39%
910/31
@BYUBYU
Win prob:14%
1011/07
vsColoradoCOLO
Win prob:60%
1111/14
@UCFUCF
Win prob:42%
1211/21
vsOklahoma StOKST
Win prob:65%
1311/28
@ArizonaARIZ
Win prob:38%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Arizona StRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
9-0
0.0%
100.0%
8-1
0.3%
96.5%
7-2
2.1%
45.8%
6-3
8.5%
3.5%
5-4
19.8%
0%
4-5
27.9%
0%
3-6
24.5%
0%
2-7
12.8%
0%
1-8
3.7%
0%
0-9
0.4%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Arizona St CCG Opponents

if Arizona St makes the CCG

BYUBYU
31.4%
TTUTexas Tech
30.7%
UTAHUtah
21.6%
KSUKansas St
6.5%
HOUHouston
3.3%
CINCincinnati
2.0%
BAYBaylor
2.0%
TCUTCU
0.7%
COLOColorado
0.7%
ARIZArizona
0.7%
UCFUCF
0.7%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Arizona StThis Week's Impact

Game
Arizona StCCG OddsAway Wins
Arizona StCCG OddsHome Wins
Fri, Sep 18
HoustonHOU@Texas TechTTU
1.7%
(+0.2%)		1.5%
(-0.0%)
Sat, Sep 19
Arizona StASU@KansasKU
2.2%
(+0.7%)		0.4%
(-1.1%)
Bowling GreenBGSU@Iowa StISU
1.5%
(-0.0%)		1.5%
(+0.0%)
TulaneTULN@Kansas StKSU
1.5%
(-0.0%)		1.5%
(+0.0%)
Miami OHM-OH@CincinnatiCIN
1.5%
(-0.0%)		1.5%
(+0.0%)
Utah StUSU@UtahUTAH
1.6%
(+0.0%)		1.5%
(+0.0%)
Louisiana TechLT@BaylorBAY
1.5%
(+0.0%)		1.5%
(+0.0%)
Georgia StGAST@UCFUCF
1.5%
(-0.0%)		1.5%
(+0.0%)
Murray StateMUR@Oklahoma StOKST
1.6%
(+0.0%)		1.5%
(+0.0%)
BYUBYU@Colorado StCSU
1.5%
(+0.0%)		1.6%
(+0.0%)
ColoradoCOLO@NorthwesternNU
1.6%
(+0.0%)		1.5%
(-0.0%)
West VirginiaWVU@VirginiaUVA
1.6%
(+0.0%)		1.5%
(-0.0%)
Arkansas StARST@TCUTCU
1.5%
(-0.0%)		1.5%
(+0.0%)
N IllinoisNIU@ArizonaARIZ
1.4%
(-0.1%)		1.5%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Arizona StLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Arizona St CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
96.7%
0.3%
Oklahoma St
100.0%
<0.1%
Hawaii
100.0%
<0.1%
Baylor
100.0%
<0.1%
UCF
99.4%
<0.1%
Arizona
98.5%
<0.1%
Kansas St
96.9%
<0.1%
Kansas
96.8%
<0.1%
Texas Tech
96.4%
<0.1%
BYU
95.4%
<0.1%
Colorado
92.3%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
46.2%
1.9%
HawaiiUCF
100.0%
<0.1%
BaylorHawaii
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiKansas St
100.0%
<0.1%
ColoradoHawaii
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiOklahoma St
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiKansas
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiTexas Tech
96.6%
<0.1%
BYUHawaii
89.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaHawaii
84.6%
<0.1%
ColoradoOklahoma St
83.3%
<0.1%
KansasUCF
80.7%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StUCF
78.6%
<0.1%
KansasOklahoma St
76.3%
<0.1%
BaylorUCF
74.9%
<0.1%
BaylorOklahoma St
74.6%
<0.1%
BaylorColorado
73.5%
<0.1%
ColoradoKansas
72.5%
<0.1%
BaylorKansas
71.8%
<0.1%
ArizonaUCF
70.6%
<0.1%
ColoradoUCF
68.9%
<0.1%
Kansas StUCF
68.4%
<0.1%
ArizonaKansas
68.3%
<0.1%
ArizonaOklahoma St
67.0%
<0.1%
BaylorKansas St
66.4%
<0.1%
ArizonaBaylor
64.5%
<0.1%
Kansas StOklahoma St
63.7%
<0.1%
Texas TechUCF
59.8%
0.1%
Oklahoma StTexas Tech
57.6%
<0.1%
KansasKansas St
57.1%
<0.1%
ColoradoKansas St
56.7%
<0.1%
ArizonaColorado
56.1%
<0.1%
BaylorTexas Tech
54.5%
<0.1%
ColoradoTexas Tech
54.2%
<0.1%
BYUOklahoma St
54.1%
<0.1%
BYUKansas
53.4%
<0.1%
BYUUCF
53.1%
<0.1%
KansasTexas Tech
51.1%
<0.1%
BYUBaylor
48.8%
<0.1%
ArizonaKansas St
47.1%
<0.1%
Kansas StTexas Tech
46.3%
0.1%
BYUKansas St
44.0%
0.1%
BYUColorado
43.1%
<0.1%
ArizonaTexas Tech
41.3%
0.1%
ArizonaBYU
37.8%
0.1%
BYUTexas Tech
28.8%
0.5%
Any 3 losses
4.3%
7.9%
HawaiiKansas StOklahoma St
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiOklahoma StUCF
100.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiKansasUCF
100.0%
<0.1%
BaylorHawaiiOklahoma St
85.7%
<0.1%
HawaiiKansasOklahoma St
83.3%
<0.1%
ArizonaHawaiiOklahoma St
81.3%
<0.1%
BaylorHawaiiKansas
80.0%
<0.1%
BaylorColoradoHawaii
75.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiKansas StUCF
75.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaHawaiiUCF
72.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaHawaiiKansas
71.4%
<0.1%
ArizonaBaylorHawaii
69.2%
<0.1%
ColoradoHawaiiUCF
69.2%
<0.1%
HawaiiKansasKansas St
66.7%
<0.1%
ArizonaHawaiiKansas St
62.5%
<0.1%
ColoradoHawaiiOklahoma St
62.5%
<0.1%
BaylorHawaiiUCF
61.9%
<0.1%
ColoradoHawaiiKansas St
59.1%
<0.1%
HawaiiOklahoma StTexas Tech
58.7%
<0.1%
BaylorHawaiiKansas St
57.1%
<0.1%
BaylorHawaiiTexas Tech
56.7%
<0.1%
HawaiiTexas TechUCF
55.7%
<0.1%
BYUHawaiiKansas
51.5%
<0.1%
HawaiiKansas StTexas Tech
51.3%
<0.1%
BYUHawaiiOklahoma St
50.0%
<0.1%
HawaiiKansasTexas Tech
50.0%
<0.1%
ColoradoHawaiiKansas
50.0%
<0.1%
BYUHawaiiUCF
48.5%
<0.1%
ColoradoHawaiiTexas Tech
47.7%
<0.1%
BYUBaylorHawaii
47.5%
<0.1%
ArizonaHawaiiTexas Tech
41.1%
<0.1%
BYUColoradoHawaii
40.7%
<0.1%
ArizonaColoradoHawaii
40.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaBYUHawaii
36.3%
<0.1%
BYUHawaiiKansas St
34.8%
<0.1%
BYUHawaiiTexas Tech
29.6%
<0.1%
KansasOklahoma StUCF
19.1%
<0.1%
BaylorKansasOklahoma St
15.4%
<0.1%
ArizonaKansasUCF
14.9%
<0.1%
ArizonaColoradoKansas
14.3%
<0.1%
ColoradoOklahoma StUCF
14.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaBaylorKansas
13.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaKansasOklahoma St
11.6%
<0.1%
BaylorOklahoma StUCF
11.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaOklahoma StUCF
10.0%
<0.1%
ColoradoKansas StOklahoma St
9.7%
<0.1%
ArizonaBaylorOklahoma St
9.0%
<0.1%
BaylorKansas StOklahoma St
8.7%
<0.1%
BaylorKansasUCF
8.2%
<0.1%
ColoradoKansas StUCF
8.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaColoradoUCF
7.7%
<0.1%
BaylorColoradoKansas
7.7%
<0.1%
BaylorColoradoOklahoma St
7.1%
<0.1%
ColoradoOklahoma StTexas Tech
7.1%
<0.1%
KansasKansas StUCF
7.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaBaylorUCF
6.8%
<0.1%
BaylorColoradoKansas St
6.8%
<0.1%
BaylorOklahoma StTexas Tech
6.7%
<0.1%
Oklahoma StTexas TechUCF
6.7%
<0.1%
BYUKansasOklahoma St
6.5%
<0.1%
ColoradoKansasOklahoma St
6.5%
<0.1%
BYUOklahoma StUCF
6.3%
<0.1%
BaylorKansasTexas Tech
6.1%
<0.1%
ArizonaKansasKansas St
6.1%
<0.1%
BaylorColoradoUCF
6.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaBYUOklahoma St
5.9%
<0.1%
KansasTexas TechUCF
5.9%
<0.1%
BYUKansasUCF
5.9%
<0.1%
BYUKansas StOklahoma St
5.6%
<0.1%
ArizonaKansas StUCF
5.6%
<0.1%
ArizonaTexas TechUCF
5.5%
0.2%
BaylorKansas StUCF
5.5%
<0.1%
KansasKansas StOklahoma St
5.5%
<0.1%
ArizonaBaylorColorado
5.4%
<0.1%
ColoradoKansasTexas Tech
5.3%
<0.1%
Kansas StOklahoma StTexas Tech
5.3%
<0.1%
ArizonaBYUKansas
5.2%
<0.1%
BaylorTexas TechUCF
5.2%
0.1%
Kansas StOklahoma StUCF
5.2%
<0.1%
BYUColoradoKansas
5.1%
<0.1%
ColoradoTexas TechUCF
4.9%
<0.1%
BYUBaylorUCF
4.8%
0.1%
ArizonaColoradoKansas St
4.8%
<0.1%
BYUKansas StUCF
4.8%
0.2%
BYUBaylorKansas
4.7%
<0.1%
ArizonaKansas StOklahoma St
4.6%
<0.1%
ArizonaBYUBaylor
4.6%
0.1%
ArizonaKansasTexas Tech
4.5%
<0.1%
ColoradoKansasUCF
4.5%
<0.1%
ArizonaBYUUCF
4.4%
0.2%
BaylorKansasKansas St
4.4%
<0.1%
BYUKansasKansas St
4.4%
<0.1%
ArizonaOklahoma StTexas Tech
4.3%
<0.1%
ArizonaColoradoTexas Tech
4.0%
<0.1%
BYUColoradoUCF
4.0%
<0.1%
KansasKansas StTexas Tech
4.0%
<0.1%
Kansas StTexas TechUCF
3.9%
0.2%
ColoradoKansas StTexas Tech
3.9%
<0.1%
KansasOklahoma StTexas Tech
3.7%
<0.1%
ArizonaBYUColorado
3.5%
<0.1%
BaylorColoradoTexas Tech
3.5%
<0.1%
BYUBaylorOklahoma St
3.5%
<0.1%
ArizonaBaylorKansas St
3.5%
<0.1%
ArizonaBaylorTexas Tech
3.5%
0.1%
ArizonaBYUKansas St
3.3%
0.2%
BYUOklahoma StTexas Tech
3.3%
0.3%
BaylorKansas StTexas Tech
3.1%
0.1%
BYUColoradoOklahoma St
3.0%
<0.1%
BYUTexas TechUCF
3.0%
0.7%
ColoradoKansasKansas St
2.9%
<0.1%
ArizonaKansas StTexas Tech
2.8%
0.2%
BYUBaylorKansas St
2.5%
0.1%
BYUKansasTexas Tech
2.2%
0.3%
BYUColoradoKansas St
2.2%
<0.1%
BYUBaylorColorado
2.1%
<0.1%
BYUColoradoTexas Tech
2.1%
0.3%
BYUBaylorTexas Tech
2.0%
0.5%
ArizonaBYUTexas Tech
1.9%
0.8%
BYUKansas StTexas Tech
1.9%
0.8%
ArizonaColoradoOklahoma St
1.4%
<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Arizona StCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com