TCUHorned Frogs

Q: What is TCU's probability of making the Big XII Championship Game?

TCU has a <0.1% chance to reach the Big XII Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. TCU's Big XII Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

4-4 T8th (2-3) in B12

Data from 2026-11-02

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.0%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is TCU's probability of making the Big XII Championship Game?

TCU has a <0.1% chance to reach the Big XII Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. TCU's Big XII Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

What does TCU need to do to reach the Big XII Championship Game?

A perfect run to the end of the season puts TCU's Big XII Championship Game odds at 7.1%.

What is the biggest game this week for TCU's Big XII Championship Game odds?

TCU's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating Arizona would put its Big XII Championship Game odds at 0.2%, while a loss would drop them to -.

Schedule & Results

Wk	Date	Opponent	Result
0	8/29	vsNorth CarolinaUNC(N)	L10-15
2	9/12	vsGramblingGRAM	W63-7
3	9/19	vsArkansas StateARST	W31-7
4	9/26	@UCFUCF	L13-21
5	10/03	vsBYUBYU	L10-17
7	10/17	@BaylorBAY	W17-6
8	10/24	vsWest VirginiaWVU	L20-24
9	10/31	vsKansasKU	W22-16
10	11/06	@ArizonaARIZ	Win prob:24%
11	11/14	vsKansas StateKSU	Win prob:66%
12	11/21	vsUtahUTAH	Win prob:24%
13	11/26	@Texas TechTTU	Win prob:16%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
6-3	0.6%	7.1%
5-4	7.3%	0%
4-5	30.1%	0%
3-6	45.6%	0%
2-7	16.4%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

UtahUTAH

75.0%

BYUBYU

25.0%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Time	Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins
Fri, Nov 6Friday, November 6
	TCUTCU@ArizonaARIZ	0.2% (+0.1%)	0.0% (-0.0%)
Sat, Nov 7Saturday, November 7
	BYUBYU@UtahUTAH	0.0% (+0.0%)	0.0% (+0.0%)
	Iowa StateISU@BaylorBAY	0.0% (-0.0%)	0.0% (+0.0%)
	Oklahoma StateOKST@Kansas StateKSU	0.0% (-0.0%)	0.1% (+0.0%)
	CincinnatiCIN@HoustonHOU	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.0% (+0.0%)
	UCFUCF@KansasKU	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.0% (+0.0%)
	ColoradoCOLO@Arizona StateASU	0.0% (+0.0%)	0.0% (+0.0%)
	West VirginiaWVU@Texas TechTTU	0.1% (+0.0%)	0.0% (+0.0%)