TCU

TCUHorned Frogs

1-1 T2nd (0-0) in B12

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

2.7%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is TCU's probability of making the Big XII Championship Game?

TCU has a 2.7% chance to reach the Big XII Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. TCU's Big XII Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

TCUSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
08/29
vsNorth CarolinaUNC(N)
L10-15
29/12
vsGramblingGRAM
W63-7
39/19
vsArkansas StARST
Win prob:93%
49/26
@UCFUCF
Win prob:47%
510/03
vsBYUBYU
Win prob:29%
710/17
@BaylorBAY
Win prob:36%
810/24
vsWest VirginiaWVU
Win prob:74%
910/31
vsKansasKU
Win prob:75%
1011/06
@ArizonaARIZ
Win prob:43%
1111/14
vsKansas StKSU
Win prob:43%
1211/21
vsUtahUTAH
Win prob:30%
1311/26
@Texas TechTTU
Win prob:15%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

TCURecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
9-0
0.0%
100.0%
8-1
0.4%
99.7%
7-2
2.6%
63.3%
6-3
9.5%
6.7%
5-4
20.8%
0.0%
4-5
28.3%
0%
3-6
23.6%
0%
2-7
11.6%
0%
1-8
3.0%
0%
0-9
0.3%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible TCU CCG Opponents

if TCU makes the CCG

TTUTexas Tech
33.8%
BYUBYU
27.5%
UTAHUtah
19.7%
KSUKansas St
7.1%
HOUHouston
3.3%
CINCincinnati
2.6%
BAYBaylor
2.6%
UCFUCF
1.1%
ARIZArizona
0.7%
COLOColorado
0.7%
ASUArizona St
0.4%
OKSTOklahoma St
0.4%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

TCUThis Week's Impact

Game
TCUCCG OddsAway Wins
TCUCCG OddsHome Wins
Fri, Sep 18
HoustonHOU@Texas TechTTU
2.9%
(+0.3%)		2.6%
(-0.1%)
Sat, Sep 19
Arizona StASU@KansasKU
2.6%
(-0.0%)		2.7%
(+0.1%)
Bowling GreenBGSU@Iowa StISU
2.7%
(-0.0%)		2.7%
(+0.0%)
TulaneTULN@Kansas StKSU
2.6%
(-0.0%)		2.7%
(+0.0%)
Miami OHM-OH@CincinnatiCIN
2.9%
(+0.2%)		2.7%
(-0.0%)
Utah StUSU@UtahUTAH
2.7%
(+0.1%)		2.7%
(+0.0%)
Louisiana TechLT@BaylorBAY
2.7%
(+0.0%)		2.7%
(+0.0%)
Georgia StGAST@UCFUCF
2.6%
(-0.0%)		2.7%
(+0.0%)
Murray StateMUR@Oklahoma StOKST
2.7%
(+0.0%)		2.7%
(+0.0%)
BYUBYU@Colorado StCSU
2.7%
(+0.0%)		2.7%
(+0.0%)
ColoradoCOLO@NorthwesternNU
2.7%
(-0.0%)		2.7%
(+0.0%)
West VirginiaWVU@VirginiaUVA
2.7%
(-0.0%)		2.7%
(+0.0%)
Arkansas StARST@TCUTCU
2.6%
(-0.1%)		2.7%
(+0.0%)
N IllinoisNIU@ArizonaARIZ
2.5%
(-0.1%)		2.7%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

TCULoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
TCU CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
99.7%
0.4%
Kansas
100.0%
<0.1%
UCF
100.0%
<0.1%
Arizona
100.0%
<0.1%
Kansas St
100.0%
<0.1%
West Virginia
100.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas St
100.0%
<0.1%
Baylor
99.8%
<0.1%
BYU
99.6%
<0.1%
Texas Tech
99.6%
0.1%
Utah
99.4%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
63.4%
2.4%
Arkansas StBaylor
100.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StBYU
100.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StWest Virginia
100.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StUCF
100.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StKansas St
100.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StUtah
100.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaArkansas St
100.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StKansas
100.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StTexas Tech
98.9%
<0.1%
KansasWest Virginia
96.7%
<0.1%
ArizonaWest Virginia
90.5%
<0.1%
KansasUCF
89.9%
<0.1%
BaylorKansas
89.6%
<0.1%
ArizonaUCF
88.9%
<0.1%
ArizonaKansas
88.5%
<0.1%
BaylorWest Virginia
87.6%
<0.1%
BaylorUCF
87.1%
<0.1%
ArizonaBaylor
84.9%
<0.1%
Kansas StUCF
83.5%
<0.1%
UCFWest Virginia
80.8%
<0.1%
BaylorKansas St
77.3%
<0.1%
KansasKansas St
75.3%
<0.1%
BYUUCF
75.3%
<0.1%
KansasTexas Tech
74.3%
<0.1%
UCFUtah
74.1%
<0.1%
Kansas StWest Virginia
73.0%
<0.1%
BYUWest Virginia
72.7%
<0.1%
Texas TechWest Virginia
72.1%
<0.1%
KansasUtah
71.8%
<0.1%
Texas TechUCF
71.2%
0.1%
BaylorUtah
70.7%
0.1%
BYUKansas
70.1%
<0.1%
ArizonaKansas St
69.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaBYU
68.5%
<0.1%
ArizonaTexas Tech
68.2%
0.1%
ArizonaUtah
67.2%
<0.1%
UtahWest Virginia
67.0%
<0.1%
BaylorTexas Tech
66.4%
0.2%
BYUBaylor
66.1%
<0.1%
BYUKansas St
61.2%
<0.1%
Kansas StUtah
59.7%
<0.1%
Kansas StTexas Tech
59.4%
0.1%
BYUUtah
48.6%
0.1%
Texas TechUtah
46.6%
0.3%
BYUTexas Tech
44.0%
0.3%
Any 3 losses
7.4%
8.9%
ArizonaArkansas StWest Virginia
100.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StKansasUCF
100.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaArkansas StKansas
100.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StKansas StWest Virginia
100.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaArkansas StBaylor
92.1%
<0.1%
Arkansas StKansasTexas Tech
88.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StBaylorWest Virginia
87.5%
<0.1%
Arkansas StKansas StUCF
84.6%
<0.1%
Arkansas StBaylorKansas St
84.4%
<0.1%
Arkansas StBaylorUCF
82.8%
<0.1%
ArizonaArkansas StUCF
80.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StKansasUtah
78.6%
<0.1%
Arkansas StBaylorUtah
75.8%
<0.1%
Arkansas StUCFWest Virginia
75.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaArkansas StKansas St
74.2%
<0.1%
Arkansas StUCFUtah
73.8%
<0.1%
Arkansas StTexas TechUCF
73.3%
<0.1%
Arkansas StUtahWest Virginia
73.3%
<0.1%
Arkansas StBaylorTexas Tech
73.3%
<0.1%
ArizonaArkansas StTexas Tech
72.7%
<0.1%
Arkansas StBaylorKansas
72.7%
<0.1%
Arkansas StBYUBaylor
68.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StTexas TechWest Virginia
66.7%
<0.1%
Arkansas StBYUUCF
66.7%
<0.1%
Arkansas StKansas StUtah
64.6%
<0.1%
Arkansas StBYUKansas St
64.1%
<0.1%
Arkansas StBYUWest Virginia
63.2%
<0.1%
ArizonaArkansas StUtah
62.5%
<0.1%
ArizonaArkansas StBYU
60.4%
<0.1%
Arkansas StBYUKansas
58.3%
<0.1%
Arkansas StKansasKansas St
50.0%
<0.1%
Arkansas StKansas StTexas Tech
49.4%
<0.1%
Arkansas StTexas TechUtah
46.2%
<0.1%
Arkansas StBYUTexas Tech
45.6%
<0.1%
Arkansas StBYUUtah
44.4%
<0.1%
KansasUCFWest Virginia
26.9%
<0.1%
ArizonaKansasWest Virginia
25.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaUCFWest Virginia
20.7%
<0.1%
ArizonaBaylorWest Virginia
19.5%
<0.1%
BYUKansasUCF
19.1%
<0.1%
UCFUtahWest Virginia
18.9%
<0.1%
BaylorUCFWest Virginia
18.5%
<0.1%
ArizonaBaylorKansas
17.9%
<0.1%
ArizonaKansasKansas St
16.9%
<0.1%
BaylorKansas StWest Virginia
16.9%
<0.1%
KansasUtahWest Virginia
16.7%
<0.1%
KansasTexas TechWest Virginia
16.2%
<0.1%
ArizonaBaylorUCF
16.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaKansasUCF
15.9%
<0.1%
KansasTexas TechUCF
15.6%
<0.1%
BYUBaylorWest Virginia
14.9%
<0.1%
ArizonaBYUKansas
14.2%
<0.1%
KansasKansas StUCF
13.9%
<0.1%
Kansas StUCFWest Virginia
13.9%
<0.1%
BYUUCFWest Virginia
13.8%
<0.1%
BaylorKansasKansas St
13.7%
<0.1%
ArizonaTexas TechWest Virginia
13.6%
<0.1%
KansasUCFUtah
13.4%
<0.1%
BaylorKansas StUCF
13.3%
<0.1%
ArizonaUtahWest Virginia
12.6%
<0.1%
Texas TechUCFWest Virginia
12.6%
<0.1%
BaylorUtahWest Virginia
12.5%
<0.1%
BaylorKansasUCF
12.2%
<0.1%
BaylorTexas TechWest Virginia
11.7%
<0.1%
ArizonaUCFUtah
11.5%
<0.1%
ArizonaBaylorKansas St
11.3%
<0.1%
ArizonaKansas StWest Virginia
11.0%
<0.1%
ArizonaKansasTexas Tech
10.7%
<0.1%
BaylorTexas TechUCF
10.6%
0.2%
ArizonaBYUUCF
10.5%
<0.1%
BYUBaylorUCF
10.3%
0.1%
ArizonaTexas TechUCF
10.0%
0.2%
BaylorKansasTexas Tech
10.0%
<0.1%
BYUBaylorKansas
10.0%
<0.1%
KansasKansas StUtah
9.8%
<0.1%
ArizonaKansasUtah
9.8%
<0.1%
ArizonaBaylorTexas Tech
9.3%
0.3%
ArizonaKansas StUCF
9.2%
<0.1%
Kansas StTexas TechWest Virginia
9.2%
<0.1%
BaylorUCFUtah
9.1%
0.1%
ArizonaBaylorUtah
9.0%
0.1%
ArizonaBYUBaylor
8.9%
0.1%
BYUKansas StWest Virginia
8.6%
<0.1%
Kansas StUtahWest Virginia
8.5%
<0.1%
BaylorKansasUtah
8.0%
<0.1%
KansasKansas StTexas Tech
7.8%
<0.1%
Kansas StUCFUtah
7.7%
<0.1%
Kansas StTexas TechUCF
7.4%
0.2%
BYUKansas StUCF
7.3%
<0.1%
ArizonaKansas StUtah
6.9%
<0.1%
Texas TechUtahWest Virginia
6.9%
0.1%
BaylorKansas StTexas Tech
6.9%
0.3%
BaylorKansasWest Virginia
6.8%
<0.1%
ArizonaBYUWest Virginia
6.6%
<0.1%
KansasTexas TechUtah
6.4%
0.1%
BYUTexas TechUCF
6.3%
0.3%
BYUTexas TechWest Virginia
6.3%
0.1%
BaylorKansas StUtah
6.3%
0.1%
Texas TechUCFUtah
6.3%
0.3%
BYUKansasKansas St
6.1%
<0.1%
BYUBaylorUtah
5.6%
0.2%
BYUKansasTexas Tech
5.5%
0.1%
BYUBaylorKansas St
5.3%
0.1%
BYUKansasUtah
5.1%
<0.1%
BYUUtahWest Virginia
5.0%
<0.1%
BYUUCFUtah
5.0%
0.1%
BYUKansasWest Virginia
4.7%
<0.1%
ArizonaKansas StTexas Tech
4.7%
0.2%
BaylorTexas TechUtah
4.6%
0.5%
BYUBaylorTexas Tech
4.4%
0.5%
BYUKansas StUtah
4.3%
0.2%
ArizonaTexas TechUtah
4.2%
0.4%
ArizonaBYUKansas St
4.1%
<0.1%
ArizonaBYUUtah
4.1%
0.2%
ArizonaBYUTexas Tech
4.0%
0.4%
Kansas StTexas TechUtah
3.9%
0.4%
BYUKansas StTexas Tech
3.8%
0.4%
BYUTexas TechUtah
2.6%
0.7%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

TCUCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com