TCUHorned Frogs
0-0 T1st (0-0) in B12
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
8.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is TCU's probability of making the Big XII Championship Game?
TCU has a 8.2% chance to reach the Big XII Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. TCU's Big XII Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/29 | Win prob:53% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:86% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:54% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:40% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:44% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:70% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:64% | ||
| 11/06 | Win prob:42% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:59% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:51% | ||
| 11/26 | Win prob:17% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 1.2% | 99.2% |
| 7-2 | 5.8% | 75.4% |
| 6-3 | 15.3% | 16.9% |
| 5-4 | 25.2% | 0.1% |
| 4-5 | 26.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 17.2% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 7.2% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 1.6% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 8.2% (-0.0%) | 8.2% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
99.4%
0.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.9%
0.2%98.3%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
79.8%
2.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.3%
0.2%96.8%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%91.3%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.7%
<0.1%89.7%
<0.1%89.2%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%86.3%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.5%
<0.1%84.9%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%84.0%
0.2%83.9%
<0.1%80.7%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.2%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.4%
<0.1%74.2%
0.2%73.3%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.6%
0.2%68.5%
0.1%63.6%
<0.1%60.4%
0.2%55.9%
0.3%Any 3 losses
35.3%
9.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.3%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.3%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.2%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.2%
<0.1%88.1%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.3%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%82.6%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.2%
0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.7%
<0.1%79.5%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.1%
<0.1%77.5%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%76.8%
0.1%75.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.6%
0.2%72.9%
<0.1%71.5%
0.2%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
0.2%70.6%
<0.1%70.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%68.0%
<0.1%67.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.4%
0.3%47.1%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%34.3%
<0.1%34.2%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%32.8%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.7%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.1%
<0.1%25.9%
<0.1%25.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.2%
0.1%24.1%
<0.1%23.3%
0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.8%
0.2%22.7%
<0.1%22.3%
0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.9%
<0.1%20.9%
<0.1%20.9%
0.2%20.8%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.3%
0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.5%
<0.1%19.4%
0.3%19.1%
<0.1%19.0%
0.2%18.5%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%18.4%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.7%
<0.1%17.6%
0.1%17.4%
<0.1%17.2%
<0.1%17.2%
0.2%16.2%
0.1%16.2%
0.2%16.1%
<0.1%16.0%
0.1%16.0%
<0.1%15.8%
0.2%15.6%
0.1%15.3%
<0.1%15.1%
0.1%15.0%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.2%
<0.1%12.6%
0.3%12.6%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.2%
0.4%9.7%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.4%
0.4%9.3%
0.1%9.0%
0.3%8.3%
<0.1%7.8%
0.1%Any 4 losses
20.5%
8.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.4%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%69.6%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.3%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%36.8%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.0%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%34.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.3%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%26.9%
<0.1%26.7%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%26.3%
<0.1%25.6%
<0.1%25.0%
0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.0%
<0.1%24.0%
0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%22.8%
0.1%22.7%
<0.1%22.6%
<0.1%22.4%
<0.1%22.4%
0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.9%
<0.1%21.2%
0.2%20.8%
<0.1%20.7%
<0.1%20.6%
<0.1%20.6%
<0.1%20.6%
<0.1%20.4%
<0.1%20.3%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.9%
0.1%19.5%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.6%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%18.5%
0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.8%
<0.1%17.7%
<0.1%17.4%
<0.1%17.3%
0.2%17.2%
<0.1%17.1%
<0.1%17.1%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.4%
<0.1%16.3%
0.2%16.3%
0.1%16.2%
0.2%15.5%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%15.0%
0.1%14.8%
0.3%14.6%
<0.1%14.3%
0.2%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.5%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.7%
0.3%12.5%
0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.4%
0.3%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.2%
0.2%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.0%
0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%4.3%
0.2%2.4%
<0.1%1.6%
0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%Data from 2026-08-26