NebraskaCornhuskers
2-0 T1st (0-0) in B1G
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
5.1%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Nebraska's probability of making the Big Ten Championship Game?
Nebraska has a 5.1% chance to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Nebraska's Big Ten Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | W49-21 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W56-7 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:90% | |
| 4 | 9/26 | Win prob:77% | |
| 5 | 10/03 | Win prob:84% | |
| 6 | 10/10 | Win prob:25% | |
| 7 | 10/17 | Win prob:34% | |
| 9 | 10/31 | Win prob:83% | |
| 10 | 11/06 | Win prob:74% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:95% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:14% | |
| 13 | 11/27 | Win prob:58% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.3% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 3.3% | 86.2% |
| 7-2 | 15.0% | 13.2% |
| 6-3 | 30.2% | 0.1% |
| 5-4 | 30.0% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 15.8% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 4.5% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.7% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Sep 18Friday, September 18 | |||
| 5.1% (-0.0%) | 5.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 5.1% (+0.0%) | 5.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 5.5% (+0.4%) | 5.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 5.0% (-0.1%) | 5.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 5.1% (+0.0%) | 5.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 5.2% (+0.0%) | 5.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 5.1% (-0.0%) | 6.2% (+1.1%) | ||
| 5.0% (-0.1%) | 5.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 5.1% (-0.0%) | 5.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 5.6% (+0.4%) | 5.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 5.1% (-0.0%) | 5.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 5.2% (+0.1%) | 5.1% (-0.0%) | ||
| 5.1% (-0.0%) | 5.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 4.9% (-0.2%) | 5.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 5.1% (-0.0%) | 5.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 5.2% (+0.1%) | 5.1% (-0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.2%Any 1 loss
86.2%
3.0%
100.0%
<0.1%
98.1%
<0.1%
97.6%
0.2%
97.2%
<0.1%
92.4%
<0.1%
92.3%
0.4%
88.6%
<0.1%
85.5%
<0.1%
83.4%
1.5%
81.9%
0.7%Any 2 losses
14.9%
13.9%98.4%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%96.4%
<0.1%95.1%
<0.1%91.5%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%83.7%
0.2%83.1%
<0.1%46.6%
<0.1%45.2%
<0.1%45.1%
<0.1%43.5%
<0.1%43.3%
<0.1%42.7%
<0.1%42.6%
<0.1%42.3%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%34.8%
<0.1%31.8%
<0.1%29.8%
0.2%29.2%
<0.1%27.8%
0.3%27.7%
0.1%26.1%
0.5%25.2%
<0.1%25.2%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.6%
0.4%22.2%
<0.1%21.7%
1.1%20.9%
0.3%19.6%
0.2%19.3%
<0.1%18.6%
0.2%16.7%
0.5%15.4%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.9%
0.3%13.4%
0.1%13.3%
0.1%11.8%
2.8%9.7%
1.3%4.1%
4.4%Any 3 losses
11.8%
1.7%54.2%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.7%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%41.5%
<0.1%36.0%
<0.1%31.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%27.7%
<0.1%26.0%
<0.1%25.9%
<0.1%24.6%
<0.1%24.4%
<0.1%23.2%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.1%
0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.3%
<0.1%20.5%
<0.1%18.9%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.7%
<0.1%17.2%
<0.1%17.0%
<0.1%14.9%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.3%
0.3%10.0%
0.1%4.7%
0.5%1.6%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%0.9%
<0.1%0.7%
<0.1%0.7%
<0.1%0.7%
<0.1%0.5%
<0.1%0.5%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
1.2%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%0.9%
<0.1%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17