CaliforniaGolden Bears
1-1 T1st (1-0) in ACC
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.1%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is California's probability of making the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?
California has a 0.1% chance to reach the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. California's Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | L24-45 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W21-18 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:90% | |
| 4 | 9/25 | Win prob:36% | |
| 5 | 10/03 | Win prob:53% | |
| 6 | 10/10 | Win prob:22% | |
| 7 | 10/17 | Win prob:40% | |
| 8 | 10/24 | Win prob:7% | |
| 9 | 10/31 | Win prob:29% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:8% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:69% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:19% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.0% | 77.3% |
| 7-2 | 0.4% | 17.7% |
| 6-3 | 2.8% | 0.4% |
| 5-4 | 11.5% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 26.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 33.4% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 20.8% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 4.6% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, Sep 17Thursday, September 17 | |||
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| Fri, Sep 18Friday, September 18 | |||
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.1% (-0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.1% (+0.0%) | 0.1% (+0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
<0.1%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
90.9%
<0.1%
87.5%
<0.1%
86.7%
<0.1%
70.6%
<0.1%
66.7%
<0.1%
65.3%
<0.1%
50.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
15.5%
0.2%
100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%88.6%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%36.0%
<0.1%32.3%
<0.1%31.1%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.8%
<0.1%23.9%
<0.1%23.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%21.0%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%16.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%7.2%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
4.5%
0.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.6%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%27.2%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%21.7%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.4%
<0.1%19.1%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%13.2%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.2%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.1%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
<0.1%0.9%
<0.1%0.9%
<0.1%0.9%
<0.1%0.8%
<0.1%0.7%
<0.1%0.6%
<0.1%0.5%
<0.1%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17