CaliforniaGolden Bears
0-0 T1st (0-0) in ACC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
1.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is California's probability of making the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?
California has a 1.8% chance to reach the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. California's Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:57% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:48% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/25 | Win prob:28% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:42% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:41% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:50% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:23% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:38% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:29% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:65% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:42% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.3% | 95.8% |
| 7-2 | 1.9% | 60.1% |
| 6-3 | 7.5% | 5.1% |
| 5-4 | 17.3% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 26.3% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 25.4% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 15.4% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 5.2% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.8% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 1.7% (-0.1%) | 1.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.6% (-0.2%) | 1.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.8% (-0.0%) | 1.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 1.8% (-0.0%) | 1.8% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
94.6%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
70.0%
0.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.5%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.1%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
32.4%
2.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.6%
<0.1%65.4%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.7%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.6%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%51.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.9%
<0.1%48.2%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%38.1%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.1%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
14.7%
3.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.2%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.1%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.2%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%1.5%
0.1%Data from 2026-08-26