MiamiHurricanes
0-0 T1st (0-0) in ACC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
76.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Miami's probability of making the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?
Miami has a 76.2% chance to reach the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Miami's Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/04 | Win prob:91% | ||
| 9/10 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/18 | Win prob:83% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:99% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:64% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:81% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:85% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:80% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:35% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:89% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:84% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:94% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 18.6% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 35.7% | 98.8% |
| 7-2 | 28.8% | 73.5% |
| 6-3 | 12.8% | 9.5% |
| 5-4 | 3.5% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 0.6% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 76.5% (+0.3%) | 76.1% (-0.2%) | |
| 75.8% (-0.5%) | 76.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 76.2% (+0.0%) | 76.2% (+0.0%) | |
| 76.1% (-0.1%) | 76.3% (+0.1%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
5.9%Any 1 loss
99.4%
22.4%100.0%
10.6%100.0%
0.6%100.0%
<0.1%99.9%
0.8%99.4%
0.3%99.1%
3.3%98.9%
1.5%98.7%
1.0%98.4%
0.6%98.4%
1.1%98.1%
1.2%97.7%
1.3%Any 2 losses
91.8%
32.3%100.0%
1.2%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.5%
0.2%99.3%
1.4%99.2%
2.6%99.0%
6.3%99.0%
1.9%99.0%
0.1%99.0%
0.4%98.9%
0.6%98.8%
0.2%98.7%
2.0%98.5%
2.3%98.4%
<0.1%98.4%
0.1%98.4%
1.1%98.3%
2.4%98.2%
0.1%97.4%
<0.1%90.3%
<0.1%85.4%
<0.1%83.3%
0.2%83.3%
0.1%83.2%
0.1%81.4%
0.2%81.0%
<0.1%80.9%
<0.1%80.2%
0.3%79.6%
0.3%78.5%
0.1%78.5%
0.4%78.3%
0.1%77.6%
0.9%77.2%
<0.1%76.8%
0.1%75.8%
<0.1%75.4%
0.2%75.3%
0.6%75.0%
0.3%74.0%
0.2%73.5%
0.1%72.3%
0.3%72.0%
0.3%72.0%
0.2%70.7%
<0.1%70.7%
<0.1%68.8%
0.1%68.5%
0.7%68.4%
0.7%67.3%
0.3%67.2%
0.8%66.7%
0.2%66.3%
0.2%63.8%
0.3%60.3%
0.2%Any 3 losses
66.3%
24.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.5%
0.2%99.4%
0.2%99.4%
0.3%99.1%
0.7%99.1%
0.2%99.1%
0.1%98.6%
0.3%97.6%
<0.1%97.5%
0.2%97.2%
<0.1%96.8%
<0.1%94.3%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%91.8%
<0.1%90.5%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.3%
0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.8%
0.1%84.2%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.1%
0.3%82.6%
<0.1%82.5%
0.2%82.3%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.5%
0.1%80.1%
0.4%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.8%
<0.1%79.7%
0.3%79.6%
0.3%79.4%
0.8%79.3%
<0.1%78.2%
0.6%78.2%
0.4%78.1%
1.5%78.0%
0.1%77.5%
0.3%77.1%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.3%
<0.1%76.0%
<0.1%75.8%
0.1%75.4%
1.1%75.1%
0.6%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.9%
0.4%73.1%
<0.1%72.7%
0.3%72.7%
0.4%71.7%
0.3%71.5%
0.2%71.5%
0.3%71.4%
<0.1%71.3%
0.1%71.3%
1.4%71.0%
0.5%70.9%
0.1%70.9%
1.2%70.6%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%69.8%
0.4%69.4%
0.6%69.2%
<0.1%69.2%
0.5%68.4%
0.2%67.8%
1.4%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.3%
0.5%63.3%
0.4%62.9%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.3%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.7%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.6%
<0.1%19.5%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.6%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%12.8%
0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.2%
0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.9%
0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.6%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.3%
0.1%9.3%
<0.1%9.2%
<0.1%9.2%
0.2%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.0%
<0.1%8.6%
0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%7.0%
0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
0.2%5.9%
<0.1%5.2%
<0.1%4.9%
0.1%4.2%
0.2%3.9%
0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
23.2%
9.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%87.2%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.1%
<0.1%82.0%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.7%
<0.1%79.3%
0.2%78.6%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%77.5%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%77.0%
<0.1%75.9%
<0.1%75.2%
0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.2%
<0.1%72.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.5%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.7%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%67.4%
<0.1%67.4%
<0.1%66.9%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.1%
0.2%65.8%
<0.1%65.7%
0.1%65.0%
<0.1%65.0%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%64.1%
<0.1%64.0%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%26.1%
<0.1%25.9%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.8%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%18.5%
<0.1%17.9%
<0.1%17.0%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.8%
<0.1%14.4%
0.2%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%12.8%
<0.1%12.8%
0.3%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.3%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.9%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.7%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.3%
<0.1%11.1%
0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.0%
0.1%10.9%
0.2%10.8%
0.2%10.8%
<0.1%10.7%
0.1%10.5%
0.2%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
0.1%9.8%
0.3%9.8%
0.1%9.6%
0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.9%
0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.5%
<0.1%8.5%
0.3%8.4%
0.2%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.6%
0.1%7.5%
0.4%7.5%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.1%
0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.8%
0.1%6.8%
0.3%6.7%
0.2%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
0.1%6.3%
0.3%6.2%
0.2%6.0%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.4%
0.1%5.0%
0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.6%
0.3%4.4%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%Data from 2026-08-26