MiamiHurricanes

2-0 T1st (1-0) in ACC

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

92.0%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Miami's probability of making the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?

Miami has a 92.0% chance to reach the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Miami's Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

Schedule & Results

Wk	Date	Opponent	Result
1	9/04	@StanfordSTAN	W45-6
2	9/10	vsFlorida A&MFAMU	W77-7
3	9/18	@Wake ForestWAKE	Win prob:95%
4	9/26	vsCentral MichiganCMU	Win prob:99%
5	10/03	@ClemsonCLEM	Win prob:93%
7	10/17	vsFlorida StateFSU	Win prob:96%
8	10/24	vsPittsburghPITT	Win prob:92%
9	10/31	@North CarolinaUNC	Win prob:92%
10	11/07	@Notre DameND	Win prob:35%
11	11/14	vsDukeDUKE	Win prob:97%
12	11/21	vsVirginia TechVT	Win prob:93%
13	11/28	vsBoston CollegeBC	Win prob:99%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
9-0	63.7%	99.9%
8-1	29.7%	88.3%
7-2	5.9%	35.6%
6-3	0.7%	1.4%
5-4	0.0%	0%
4-5	0%	0%
3-6	0%	0%
2-7	0%	0%
1-8	0%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

41.4%

19.5%

19.1%

8.9%

7.3%

1.9%

0.6%

0.5%

0.3%

0.2%

0.2%

<0.1%

<0.1%

<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Time	Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins
Thu, Sep 17Thursday, September 17
	SyracuseSYR@PittsburghPITT	92.3% (+0.3%)	92.0% (-0.1%)
Fri, Sep 18Friday, September 18
	MiamiMIA@Wake ForestWAKE	93.4% (+1.4%)	67.5% (-24.5%)
Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19
	MercerMER@Georgia TechGT	92.0% (-0.0%)	92.0% (+0.0%)
	North CarolinaUNC@ClemsonCLEM	91.9% (-0.1%)	92.1% (+0.1%)
	NC StateNCSU@VanderbiltVAN	92.0% (-0.0%)	92.0% (+0.0%)
	MaineME@Boston CollegeBC	92.1% (+0.1%)	92.0% (-0.0%)
	Florida StateFSU@AlabamaALA	91.9% (-0.1%)	92.0% (+0.0%)
	SMUSMU@LouisvilleLOU	91.7% (-0.3%)	92.3% (+0.3%)
	WagnerWAG@CaliforniaCAL	92.1% (+0.1%)	92.0% (-0.0%)
	StanfordSTAN@DukeDUKE	91.9% (-0.1%)	92.0% (+0.0%)
	Virginia TechVT@MarylandMD	92.0% (+0.0%)	92.0% (+0.0%)
	West VirginiaWVU@VirginiaUVA	91.9% (-0.1%)	92.0% (+0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Loss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses

CCG Probability

Likelihood

Win out

99.9%

21.9%

Any 1 loss

97.6%

51.6%

100.0%

0.2%

99.9%

41.2%

93.8%

1.6%

91.4%

0.2%

91.0%

0.8%

90.3%

1.9%

86.3%

2.0%

86.3%

1.3%

85.9%

1.0%

83.8%

1.5%

Any 2 losses

83.7%

21.8%

99.9%

0.4%

94.1%

2.9%

93.7%

<0.1%

92.3%

<0.1%

91.7%

<0.1%

91.2%

0.4%

91.2%

1.5%

90.3%

3.5%

88.3%

<0.1%

87.3%

<0.1%

87.3%

<0.1%

86.5%

2.4%

86.4%

3.7%

85.9%

1.8%

83.9%

<0.1%

83.9%

2.9%

80.2%

<0.1%

55.9%

<0.1%

55.7%

<0.1%

53.7%

0.1%

53.1%

<0.1%

46.4%

<0.1%

44.4%

<0.1%

44.1%

<0.1%

43.5%

0.1%

42.1%

<0.1%

40.1%

<0.1%

39.8%

<0.1%

39.5%

<0.1%

39.4%

<0.1%

38.0%

<0.1%

37.9%

0.1%

37.4%

0.1%

37.0%

<0.1%

35.6%

0.2%

34.7%

<0.1%

34.4%

<0.1%

32.8%

<0.1%

31.0%

<0.1%

28.9%

0.1%

27.4%

0.1%

25.3%

<0.1%

24.3%

<0.1%

23.6%

<0.1%

20.5%

0.1%

Any 3 losses

37.3%

4.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

100.0%

<0.1%

93.0%

<0.1%

91.8%

<0.1%

91.6%

<0.1%

89.4%

<0.1%

88.5%

<0.1%

86.8%

<0.1%

86.1%

<0.1%

84.9%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

57.7%

<0.1%

57.1%

<0.1%

54.5%

<0.1%

54.5%

<0.1%

52.5%

0.3%

52.0%

0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

47.4%

<0.1%

47.4%

<0.1%

46.5%

<0.1%

45.6%

<0.1%

44.0%

0.2%

43.6%

0.1%

43.6%

<0.1%

43.5%

0.1%

42.9%

0.3%

40.0%

<0.1%

38.3%

<0.1%

37.5%

<0.1%

37.5%

<0.1%

36.1%

0.2%

35.4%

0.1%

35.2%

0.3%

34.8%

0.2%

34.8%

<0.1%

34.7%

<0.1%

34.1%

0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

33.1%

<0.1%

30.1%

0.1%

30.0%

0.1%

28.2%

0.2%

27.3%

<0.1%

27.0%

0.2%

26.4%

0.2%

25.0%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

24.9%

0.2%

24.7%

0.1%

22.2%

<0.1%

21.4%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

19.3%

0.3%

14.3%

<0.1%

14.3%

<0.1%

11.1%

<0.1%

6.9%

<0.1%

6.3%

<0.1%

4.8%

<0.1%

4.3%

<0.1%

4.0%

<0.1%

3.4%

<0.1%

3.3%

<0.1%

3.0%

<0.1%

2.9%

<0.1%

2.9%

<0.1%

2.6%

<0.1%

2.4%

<0.1%

2.4%

<0.1%

2.3%

<0.1%

2.3%

<0.1%

2.1%

<0.1%

1.8%

<0.1%

1.5%

<0.1%

1.0%

<0.1%

0.7%

<0.1%

Any 4 losses

2.0%

0.3%

100.0%

<0.1%

75.0%

<0.1%

66.7%

<0.1%

60.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

50.0%

<0.1%

48.4%

<0.1%

47.4%

<0.1%

46.7%

<0.1%

45.5%

<0.1%

45.5%

<0.1%

44.4%

<0.1%

41.7%

<0.1%

39.3%

<0.1%

33.3%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

25.0%

<0.1%

23.1%

<0.1%

21.7%

<0.1%

20.0%

<0.1%

18.2%

<0.1%

17.6%

<0.1%

12.5%

<0.1%

11.8%

<0.1%

9.1%

<0.1%

9.1%

<0.1%

8.3%

<0.1%

7.1%

<0.1%

6.7%

<0.1%

5.0%

<0.1%

4.0%

<0.1%

3.9%

<0.1%

3.9%

<0.1%

3.5%

<0.1%

3.3%

<0.1%

2.8%

<0.1%

2.4%

<0.1%

2.2%

<0.1%

2.2%

<0.1%

2.1%

<0.1%

2.0%

<0.1%

1.9%

<0.1%

1.9%

<0.1%

1.8%

<0.1%

1.8%

<0.1%

1.7%

<0.1%

1.6%

<0.1%

1.5%

<0.1%

1.3%

<0.1%

1.3%

<0.1%

1.2%

<0.1%

1.0%

<0.1%

1.0%

<0.1%

0.8%

<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

CCG Probability Over Time

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com