LouisvilleCardinals
1-1 T5th (0-0) in ACC
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
21.3%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Louisville's probability of making the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?
Louisville has a 21.3% chance to reach the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Louisville's Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/06 | L38-41 | |
| 2 | 9/11 | W59-13 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:52% | |
| 4 | 9/26 | Win prob:81% | |
| 5 | 10/03 | Win prob:72% | |
| 6 | 10/09 | Win prob:71% | |
| 7 | 10/17 | Win prob:75% | |
| 9 | 10/31 | Win prob:95% | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:74% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:60% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:59% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:67% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 4.1% | 98.9% |
| 8-1 | 16.5% | 73.6% |
| 7-2 | 28.4% | 17.7% |
| 6-3 | 27.2% | 0.3% |
| 5-4 | 16.1% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 6.0% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 1.4% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, Sep 17Thursday, September 17 | |||
| 22.6% (+1.3%) | 21.1% (-0.2%) | ||
| Fri, Sep 18Friday, September 18 | |||
| 21.0% (-0.3%) | 26.9% (+5.5%) | ||
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 21.4% (+0.1%) | 21.3% (-0.0%) | ||
| 21.5% (+0.1%) | 21.2% (-0.1%) | ||
| 21.4% (+0.0%) | 21.3% (-0.0%) | ||
| 21.2% (-0.1%) | 21.4% (+0.0%) | ||
| 21.3% (+0.0%) | 21.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 4.9% (-16.4%) | 36.4% (+15.0%) | ||
| 21.5% (+0.2%) | 21.3% (-0.0%) | ||
| 22.2% (+0.8%) | 21.2% (-0.1%) | ||
| 21.3% (+0.0%) | 21.3% (-0.0%) | ||
| 21.3% (-0.1%) | 21.4% (+0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
98.9%
2.8%Any 1 loss
76.4%
12.4%
99.0%
1.4%
89.3%
1.0%
86.8%
0.9%
85.6%
1.1%
83.0%
0.1%
82.3%
1.8%
78.1%
1.9%
77.5%
0.7%
77.3%
1.1%
44.9%
2.5%Any 2 losses
30.2%
24.5%89.0%
0.5%86.5%
0.5%86.4%
0.4%84.2%
<0.1%82.2%
0.9%78.4%
0.9%78.1%
0.3%78.0%
0.5%43.9%
1.3%37.5%
0.4%36.9%
<0.1%36.4%
0.1%35.9%
0.3%35.5%
<0.1%35.3%
0.6%33.1%
<0.1%33.1%
<0.1%32.6%
<0.1%31.5%
0.2%31.3%
0.4%31.3%
0.4%30.6%
0.7%29.3%
0.4%29.2%
0.6%27.5%
0.4%26.6%
0.7%25.8%
0.2%25.6%
0.2%24.8%
0.4%24.3%
0.7%24.3%
0.3%24.2%
0.1%22.6%
0.7%20.3%
1.3%19.1%
0.6%18.2%
0.5%15.4%
0.8%8.2%
0.1%7.7%
0.9%7.6%
1.0%6.1%
1.7%6.0%
0.8%4.3%
1.0%4.2%
0.6%4.1%
1.7%Any 3 losses
12.2%
13.9%38.5%
<0.1%38.4%
0.2%37.0%
<0.1%35.0%
0.3%34.4%
<0.1%34.0%
0.2%32.9%
<0.1%32.5%
0.2%32.0%
0.1%30.3%
0.3%30.2%
0.2%29.3%
0.2%28.5%
0.3%27.6%
0.2%27.2%
0.4%26.9%
<0.1%26.6%
0.2%26.5%
<0.1%25.6%
0.1%25.6%
<0.1%25.1%
0.1%25.0%
0.3%24.0%
0.1%22.0%
0.4%20.6%
0.6%19.3%
0.3%16.7%
0.2%15.8%
0.4%8.6%
0.4%7.9%
<0.1%7.4%
0.5%5.9%
0.8%5.4%
0.4%4.4%
0.3%4.3%
0.5%4.3%
0.9%2.6%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.2%
0.3%1.2%
0.1%1.1%
0.2%1.1%
0.1%1.0%
0.1%1.0%
<0.1%0.9%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%0.9%
<0.1%0.8%
0.2%0.8%
<0.1%0.8%
<0.1%0.8%
0.1%0.7%
<0.1%0.7%
0.3%0.7%
0.2%0.7%
0.4%0.7%
0.2%0.7%
<0.1%0.6%
0.5%0.6%
0.1%0.6%
0.3%0.6%
<0.1%0.6%
<0.1%0.6%
<0.1%0.6%
0.3%0.5%
<0.1%0.5%
0.2%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17