LouisvilleCardinals
0-0 T1st (0-0) in ACC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
20.2%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Louisville's probability of making the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?
Louisville has a 20.2% chance to reach the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Louisville's Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/06 | Win prob:35% | ||
| 9/11 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:52% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:69% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:58% | ||
| 10/09 | Win prob:56% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:68% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:82% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:56% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:55% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:62% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:54% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 1.3% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 7.3% | 95.7% |
| 7-2 | 18.2% | 58.5% |
| 6-3 | 26.6% | 5.1% |
| 5-4 | 24.3% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 14.8% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 5.9% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 1.4% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.2% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 20.8% (+0.6%) | 19.9% (-0.3%) | |
| 19.8% (-0.4%) | 20.3% (+0.0%) | |
| 20.2% (-0.1%) | 20.3% (+0.1%) | |
| 20.3% (+0.0%) | 20.2% (-0.0%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.2%Any 1 loss
97.1%
1.9%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
0.2%100.0%
<0.1%98.6%
0.1%97.4%
0.1%97.3%
0.2%97.1%
0.1%96.9%
0.2%95.1%
0.2%94.8%
0.1%93.5%
<0.1%92.1%
0.2%Any 2 losses
79.5%
7.0%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.9%
<0.1%98.4%
0.3%97.9%
0.2%97.6%
0.1%97.5%
<0.1%97.5%
0.2%97.4%
<0.1%97.1%
0.3%96.8%
0.2%96.8%
0.3%96.2%
<0.1%95.8%
0.1%94.7%
<0.1%93.9%
0.1%93.2%
0.3%92.4%
0.2%92.0%
0.4%90.9%
<0.1%88.4%
0.2%77.3%
<0.1%76.7%
<0.1%74.0%
<0.1%73.6%
<0.1%72.1%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.5%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.1%
0.1%67.5%
<0.1%67.2%
0.1%64.9%
<0.1%64.3%
0.1%64.3%
<0.1%63.5%
0.1%63.4%
0.1%62.8%
0.1%61.9%
<0.1%61.8%
<0.1%59.8%
<0.1%58.6%
0.1%56.5%
0.1%54.3%
0.1%54.2%
<0.1%52.2%
<0.1%51.5%
<0.1%50.7%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
0.2%48.1%
<0.1%46.7%
0.1%45.6%
0.1%44.1%
0.1%39.2%
0.1%34.2%
<0.1%30.9%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
50.5%
15.0%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.6%
0.3%97.6%
<0.1%96.6%
0.2%96.5%
0.2%96.2%
0.3%95.4%
0.3%95.2%
<0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.5%
0.2%93.9%
<0.1%92.6%
<0.1%92.3%
0.3%91.7%
0.2%90.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.4%
<0.1%85.0%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.4%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.2%
0.2%76.2%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.8%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.1%
<0.1%71.8%
<0.1%70.9%
0.2%70.2%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.9%
<0.1%69.5%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.9%
0.1%68.8%
0.2%68.8%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.3%
0.3%67.7%
<0.1%67.3%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.3%
<0.1%66.2%
<0.1%65.6%
0.2%64.8%
0.1%64.7%
0.1%64.7%
<0.1%64.4%
<0.1%63.6%
0.2%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
0.1%63.2%
0.2%62.5%
<0.1%62.4%
0.2%62.4%
0.1%61.8%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%61.2%
0.3%60.8%
0.2%60.7%
0.2%60.7%
0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.5%
<0.1%59.4%
<0.1%59.3%
0.1%59.3%
<0.1%58.9%
0.1%58.9%
<0.1%58.1%
0.1%58.0%
0.1%57.6%
0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.0%
0.1%57.0%
<0.1%56.6%
0.2%56.3%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.2%
<0.1%54.8%
<0.1%54.7%
0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.3%
<0.1%53.8%
0.3%53.3%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%52.2%
<0.1%51.3%
0.1%51.2%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.3%
0.2%49.3%
<0.1%47.2%
0.1%47.1%
<0.1%46.4%
0.1%46.2%
0.3%46.2%
<0.1%44.9%
0.2%44.8%
0.1%43.1%
<0.1%43.0%
0.1%42.1%
<0.1%38.8%
0.3%37.5%
0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%17.0%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.3%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.6%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.6%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.5%
0.1%7.2%
<0.1%7.2%
0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%5.0%
0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.1%
0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.1%
0.1%3.0%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.9%
0.1%Any 4 losses
24.1%
17.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.4%
<0.1%96.2%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.5%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.5%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%72.7%
0.2%72.5%
0.1%72.2%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.0%
0.1%70.8%
0.1%70.6%
<0.1%70.5%
0.2%70.0%
<0.1%69.5%
0.2%68.8%
<0.1%68.2%
0.2%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.1%
0.2%65.8%
0.1%65.6%
<0.1%65.1%
<0.1%64.9%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%64.3%
0.1%64.3%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%64.0%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.8%
0.1%61.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.6%
0.2%59.6%
0.1%59.6%
<0.1%58.9%
0.2%58.8%
0.1%57.4%
0.2%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.9%
<0.1%55.7%
<0.1%55.6%
0.3%55.6%
<0.1%55.4%
0.2%55.2%
<0.1%55.1%
<0.1%54.8%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%53.0%
<0.1%52.4%
<0.1%50.3%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.8%
0.2%49.7%
0.2%48.0%
0.1%47.4%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.9%
0.3%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%42.4%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
0.1%37.5%
0.2%37.5%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.9%
0.1%13.9%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.6%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.9%
<0.1%10.4%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.3%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.8%
0.1%8.8%
0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
0.2%8.1%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%8.0%
0.1%7.8%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.4%
0.2%7.3%
0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.2%
0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%7.0%
0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.5%
0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.2%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%6.1%
0.2%6.1%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.4%
0.1%5.3%
0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.2%
0.1%5.2%
0.1%5.1%
0.1%5.1%
<0.1%5.1%
0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.9%
0.2%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.6%
<0.1%4.6%
<0.1%4.5%
0.1%4.4%
0.2%4.4%
<0.1%4.3%
0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.1%
0.2%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
0.2%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
0.2%3.6%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.4%
0.1%3.4%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
0.2%3.2%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.0%
0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.1%
0.2%2.1%
0.2%2.1%
0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.1%
0.1%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
0.1%1.9%
0.2%1.9%
0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.6%
0.1%1.6%
0.1%1.6%
0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
0.1%1.4%
0.2%1.3%
<0.1%Data from 2026-08-26