LouisvilleCardinals

5-3 T3rd (4-2) in ACC

Data from 2026-11-02

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

3.4%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Louisville's probability of making the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?

Louisville has a 3.4% chance to reach the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Louisville's Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

What does Louisville need to do to reach the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?

A perfect run to the end of the season puts Louisville's Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game odds at 8.7%; even one more loss drops that to 8.1%.

What is the biggest game this week for Louisville's Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game odds?

Louisville's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating Georgia Tech would put its Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game odds at 3.8%, while a loss would drop them to -.

Schedule & Results

Wk	Date	Opponent	Result
1	9/06	vsOle MissMISS(N)	L38-41
2	9/11	vsVillanovaVILL	W59-13
3	9/19	vsSMUSMU	W41-31
4	9/26	vsWake ForestWAKE	L27-30
5	10/03	@NC StateNCSU	L28-31
6	10/09	vsFlorida StateFSU	W44-20
7	10/17	@SyracuseSYR	W34-26
9	10/31	vsStanfordSTAN	W52-24
10	11/07	@Georgia TechGT	Win prob:90%
11	11/14	@North CarolinaUNC	Win prob:60%
12	11/21	vsPittsburghPITT	Win prob:76%
13	11/28	@KentuckyUK	Win prob:46%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
7-2	41.1%	8.3%
6-3	44.9%	0%
5-4	13.1%	0%
4-5	0.9%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

MiamiMIA

100%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Time	Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins
Fri, Nov 6Friday, November 6
	Virginia TechVT@SMUSMU	3.4% (+0.0%)	3.4% (-0.0%)
Sat, Nov 7Saturday, November 7
	ClemsonCLEM@SyracuseSYR	3.0% (-0.4%)	4.0% (+0.5%)
	Florida StateFSU@Boston CollegeBC	3.4% (+0.0%)	3.4% (-0.0%)
	North CarolinaUNC@UConnCONN	3.4% (-0.0%)	3.5% (+0.0%)
	DukeDUKE@NC StateNCSU	3.4% (-0.1%)	3.6% (+0.1%)
	MerrimackMRMK@Wake ForestWAKE	3.4% (-0.1%)	3.4% (+0.0%)
	LouisvilleLOU@Georgia TechGT	3.8% (+0.4%)	0.0% (-3.4%)
	MiamiMIA@Notre DameND	3.4% (-0.0%)	3.4% (+0.0%)