Virginia TechHokies
0-0 T1st (0-0) in ACC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
7.6%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Virginia Tech's probability of making the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?
Virginia Tech has a 7.6% chance to reach the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Virginia Tech's Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:80% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:59% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:67% | ||
| 10/02 | Win prob:58% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:59% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:63% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:31% | ||
| 11/06 | Win prob:36% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:78% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:16% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:55% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 1.4% | 98.8% |
| 7-2 | 7.1% | 66.1% |
| 6-3 | 18.0% | 7.8% |
| 5-4 | 27.3% | 0.0% |
| 4-5 | 25.4% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 14.6% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 5.0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 1.0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 7.2% (-0.4%) | 7.8% (+0.2%) | |
| 8.1% (+0.5%) | 7.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 7.6% (-0.0%) | 7.6% (+0.0%) | |
| 7.5% (-0.1%) | 7.7% (+0.1%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
99.1%
0.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.6%
0.2%99.1%
0.1%79.0%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
72.0%
3.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.2%
0.2%96.8%
<0.1%96.8%
<0.1%95.7%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.0%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%82.4%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%81.1%
0.2%80.8%
<0.1%80.4%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.3%
0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.3%
<0.1%73.5%
0.2%72.7%
<0.1%72.6%
<0.1%71.8%
<0.1%70.7%
<0.1%69.6%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%67.5%
<0.1%66.7%
0.2%66.7%
<0.1%64.4%
<0.1%64.3%
0.6%64.1%
0.2%61.5%
0.2%61.1%
<0.1%58.2%
<0.1%42.6%
0.5%Any 3 losses
25.8%
10.9%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.3%
<0.1%92.5%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%88.1%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%86.8%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%84.2%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%81.8%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%81.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%76.1%
<0.1%76.0%
<0.1%76.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.4%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%73.2%
0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.5%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.8%
0.1%70.1%
0.1%69.6%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%68.0%
0.4%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.8%
<0.1%65.5%
<0.1%64.8%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.1%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%61.9%
0.2%61.5%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%60.1%
0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.5%
0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.8%
0.3%42.4%
0.1%41.3%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%24.2%
<0.1%20.8%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.0%
<0.1%17.2%
<0.1%17.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.0%
<0.1%13.8%
0.1%12.8%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.6%
0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.9%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.2%
<0.1%10.1%
0.2%10.0%
<0.1%9.9%
0.3%9.6%
0.1%9.3%
0.1%9.2%
0.4%9.1%
<0.1%9.0%
0.1%8.9%
0.3%8.9%
<0.1%8.6%
0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.8%
0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.1%
0.2%6.9%
<0.1%6.9%
0.2%6.7%
<0.1%6.0%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.8%
0.3%5.7%
0.3%5.6%
0.4%5.6%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.1%
0.2%5.1%
0.4%4.7%
0.3%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
1.0%4.5%
0.3%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
0.1%3.1%
0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%Any 4 losses
13.6%
8.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%88.0%
<0.1%86.7%
<0.1%84.6%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%67.6%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%63.8%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%52.2%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%19.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%17.1%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.1%
0.1%13.9%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%13.4%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%12.2%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.6%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.2%
0.3%11.2%
0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.6%
<0.1%10.6%
0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.6%
0.2%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.5%
0.2%8.5%
0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.6%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.3%
0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.8%
0.2%6.8%
0.3%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.6%
0.3%6.4%
0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
0.1%6.1%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.9%
0.7%5.9%
0.1%5.7%
0.2%5.6%
0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.6%
0.3%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.4%
0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
0.2%4.0%
<0.1%3.7%
0.2%2.6%
0.2%2.5%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%Data from 2026-08-26