Virginia TechHokies
2-0 T5th (0-0) in ACC
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
7.9%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Virginia Tech's probability of making the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?
Virginia Tech has a 7.9% chance to reach the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Virginia Tech's Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | W73-3 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W44-21 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:57% | |
| 4 | 9/26 | Win prob:83% | |
| 5 | 10/02 | Win prob:54% | |
| 6 | 10/10 | Win prob:78% | |
| 7 | 10/17 | Win prob:82% | |
| 8 | 10/24 | Win prob:58% | |
| 10 | 11/06 | Win prob:31% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:93% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:7% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:51% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.2% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 3.2% | 95.4% |
| 7-2 | 14.6% | 30.6% |
| 6-3 | 28.8% | 0.8% |
| 5-4 | 29.8% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 17.1% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 5.4% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 1.0% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, Sep 17Thursday, September 17 | |||
| 7.8% (-0.1%) | 7.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| Fri, Sep 18Friday, September 18 | |||
| 7.9% (-0.0%) | 8.3% (+0.4%) | ||
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 7.8% (-0.1%) | 7.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 7.6% (-0.3%) | 8.1% (+0.2%) | ||
| 7.9% (-0.0%) | 7.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 7.9% (-0.1%) | 7.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 8.1% (+0.2%) | 7.9% (-0.0%) | ||
| 7.4% (-0.5%) | 8.4% (+0.5%) | ||
| 7.8% (-0.1%) | 7.9% (+0.0%) | ||
| 8.2% (+0.3%) | 7.9% (-0.0%) | ||
| 7.9% (+0.0%) | 7.9% (-0.0%) | ||
| 7.9% (-0.0%) | 7.9% (+0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
95.6%
1.9%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
100.0%
<0.1%
99.6%
<0.1%
98.2%
<0.1%
98.0%
<0.1%
96.2%
0.2%
95.0%
1.3%
91.7%
<0.1%
91.6%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
39.5%
9.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.1%
<0.1%98.1%
<0.1%97.9%
<0.1%96.2%
0.2%95.0%
1.0%90.5%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%68.9%
<0.1%65.8%
<0.1%64.2%
<0.1%61.7%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%59.5%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%53.8%
1.0%53.7%
0.4%53.4%
<0.1%49.9%
0.3%47.4%
0.3%46.8%
<0.1%44.1%
0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.3%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%41.0%
<0.1%40.6%
<0.1%38.0%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.1%
1.1%32.8%
<0.1%32.5%
0.1%32.1%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%29.2%
<0.1%28.4%
<0.1%27.7%
1.3%22.9%
<0.1%22.3%
0.2%20.6%
0.2%15.7%
3.0%Any 3 losses
12.5%
15.9%69.6%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.3%
<0.1%63.9%
<0.1%57.8%
<0.1%53.4%
0.7%53.1%
0.3%52.6%
0.2%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.2%
<0.1%47.9%
0.2%46.7%
<0.1%46.0%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.8%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.8%
<0.1%38.1%
<0.1%34.8%
<0.1%34.5%
0.8%34.0%
<0.1%32.9%
0.1%32.3%
<0.1%31.6%
<0.1%31.5%
<0.1%30.8%
<0.1%28.3%
<0.1%27.7%
0.9%27.1%
<0.1%22.4%
0.1%20.4%
0.1%18.2%
<0.1%15.8%
2.2%14.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.8%
0.2%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.3%
0.2%3.1%
<0.1%2.9%
0.3%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.7%
0.2%1.7%
<0.1%1.6%
0.8%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
0.3%1.3%
0.2%1.3%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
0.3%1.1%
0.3%1.0%
0.9%0.9%
<0.1%0.9%
<0.1%0.9%
<0.1%0.8%
<0.1%0.8%
0.4%0.8%
0.2%0.7%
<0.1%0.7%
<0.1%0.7%
0.6%0.7%
<0.1%0.7%
2.1%0.7%
<0.1%0.6%
0.1%0.6%
<0.1%0.5%
1.1%0.5%
0.6%Any 4 losses
1.4%
6.3%33.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.4%
0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.6%
0.2%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.4%
<0.1%3.4%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.7%
0.2%2.7%
0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%1.7%
0.2%1.7%
0.2%1.7%
<0.1%1.6%
0.6%1.6%
0.3%1.5%
<0.1%1.3%
0.2%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
0.2%1.3%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.1%
0.2%1.0%
0.7%1.0%
<0.1%0.9%
<0.1%0.9%
0.5%0.9%
<0.1%0.8%
<0.1%0.8%
<0.1%0.8%
<0.1%0.7%
1.6%0.6%
0.4%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17