ClemsonTigers
1-1 T5th (0-0) in ACC
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.5%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Clemson's probability of making the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?
Clemson has a 0.5% chance to reach the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Clemson's Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/05 | L10-51 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W22-7 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:55% | |
| 4 | 9/25 | Win prob:64% | |
| 5 | 10/03 | Win prob:7% | |
| 7 | 10/17 | Win prob:90% | |
| 8 | 10/24 | Win prob:42% | |
| 9 | 10/31 | Win prob:34% | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:55% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:70% | |
| 12 | 11/20 | Win prob:38% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:28% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 7-1 | 1.1% | 36.5% |
| 6-2 | 6.4% | 1.7% |
| 5-3 | 18.2% | 0% |
| 4-4 | 28.8% | 0% |
| 3-5 | 26.6% | 0% |
| 2-6 | 14.3% | 0% |
| 1-7 | 4.1% | 0% |
| 0-8 | 0.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, Sep 17Thursday, September 17 | |||
| 0.6% (+0.1%) | 0.5% (-0.0%) | ||
| Fri, Sep 18Friday, September 18 | |||
| 0.5% (-0.0%) | 0.8% (+0.2%) | ||
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 0.5% (-0.0%) | 0.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.1% (-0.5%) | 0.9% (+0.4%) | ||
| 0.5% (+0.0%) | 0.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.5% (+0.0%) | 0.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.5% (-0.0%) | 0.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.4% (-0.1%) | 0.6% (+0.1%) | ||
| 0.5% (-0.0%) | 0.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.6% (+0.0%) | 0.5% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.5% (+0.0%) | 0.5% (-0.0%) | ||
| 0.5% (+0.0%) | 0.5% (+0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
41.6%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%44.1%
<0.1%43.4%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%38.4%
<0.1%31.7%
<0.1%31.2%
0.2%Any 2 losses
12.5%
2.4%100.0%
<0.1%50.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.5%
<0.1%47.6%
<0.1%47.2%
<0.1%46.7%
<0.1%44.8%
<0.1%43.7%
<0.1%43.3%
<0.1%43.3%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%32.3%
0.4%26.3%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.4%
0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.8%
0.4%1.8%
0.1%1.6%
0.3%1.6%
0.3%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%1.0%
<0.1%0.7%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
2.3%
4.3%57.4%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%42.6%
<0.1%40.8%
<0.1%32.3%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%3.8%
<0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%2.2%
0.3%2.1%
<0.1%2.0%
0.1%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.9%
0.4%1.9%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.8%
0.2%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
0.7%1.7%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.6%
0.9%1.6%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.3%
<0.1%1.3%
0.4%1.2%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%1.1%
0.6%1.1%
<0.1%1.1%
<0.1%0.7%
<0.1%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17