Duke

DukeBlue Devils

2-0 T6th (0-0) in ACC

Data from 2026-09-19

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

2.0%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Duke's probability of making the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?

Duke has a 2.0% chance to reach the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Duke's Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

DukeSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
vsTulaneTULN
W17-3
29/12
@IllinoisILL
W31-27
39/19
vsStanfordSTAN
Win prob:88%
49/26
vsWilliam & MaryW&M
Win prob:90%
610/10
@Georgia TechGT
Win prob:58%
710/17
vsNorth CarolinaUNC
Win prob:59%
810/23
@VirginiaUVA
Win prob:24%
910/31
vsBoston CollegeBC
Win prob:86%
1011/07
@NC StateNCSU
Win prob:55%
1111/14
@Miami FLMIA
Win prob:3%
1211/20
vsClemsonCLEM
Win prob:62%
1311/28
@Wake ForestWAKE
Win prob:50%

Data from 2026-09-19 • SportsSimulate.com

DukeRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
9-0
0.0%
100.0%
8-1
1.3%
70.0%
7-2
8.3%
12.3%
6-3
21.8%
0.2%
5-4
30.3%
0%
4-5
23.9%
0%
3-6
11.1%
0%
2-7
2.9%
0%
1-8
0.4%
0%
0-9
0.0%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-19 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Duke CCG Opponents

if Duke makes the CCG

MIAMiami FL
87.1%
SMUSMU
5.9%
UVAVirginia
2.5%
LOULouisville
2.5%
VTVirginia Tech
1.0%
PITTPittsburgh
1.0%

Data from 2026-09-19 • SportsSimulate.com

DukeThis Week's Impact

Game
DukeCCG OddsAway Wins
DukeCCG OddsHome Wins
Sat, Sep 19
MercerMER@Georgia TechGT
2.0%
(-0.0%)		2.0%
(+0.0%)
North CarolinaUNC@ClemsonCLEM
2.0%
(-0.0%)		2.1%
(+0.0%)
NC StateNCSU@VanderbiltVAN
2.0%
(-0.0%)		2.0%
(+0.0%)
MaineME@Boston CollegeBC
2.0%
(+0.0%)		2.0%
(+0.0%)
Florida StFSU@AlabamaALA
2.1%
(+0.1%)		2.0%
(-0.0%)
SMUSMU@LouisvilleLOU
1.7%
(-0.3%)		2.3%
(+0.3%)
WagnerWAG@CaliforniaCAL
2.0%
(-0.1%)		2.0%
(+0.0%)
StanfordSTAN@DukeDUKE
0.3%
(-1.7%)		2.3%
(+0.2%)
Virginia TechVT@MarylandMD
2.0%
(+0.0%)		2.0%
(+0.0%)
West VirginiaWVU@VirginiaUVA
2.0%
(+0.0%)		2.0%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-19 • SportsSimulate.com

DukeLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Duke CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
69.9%
1.2%
William & Mary
100.0%
<0.1%
Clemson
89.3%
<0.1%
NC State
88.8%
<0.1%
Georgia Tech
85.7%
<0.1%
Virginia
81.1%
0.1%
North Carolina
79.3%
<0.1%
Boston College
76.9%
<0.1%
Miami FL
67.4%
0.9%
Wake Forest
64.7%
<0.1%
Stanford
64.0%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
13.1%
7.6%
ClemsonWilliam & Mary
83.3%
<0.1%
NC StateWilliam & Mary
82.9%
<0.1%
North CarolinaWilliam & Mary
82.3%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeWilliam & Mary
80.0%
<0.1%
VirginiaWilliam & Mary
78.4%
<0.1%
StanfordWilliam & Mary
75.0%
<0.1%
Georgia TechWilliam & Mary
72.7%
<0.1%
Miami FLWilliam & Mary
68.8%
0.1%
Wake ForestWilliam & Mary
54.8%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeClemson
41.4%
<0.1%
Georgia TechNC State
29.6%
<0.1%
ClemsonGeorgia Tech
29.5%
<0.1%
ClemsonStanford
27.6%
<0.1%
ClemsonNC State
26.7%
<0.1%
Georgia TechNorth Carolina
25.3%
<0.1%
ClemsonNorth Carolina
24.0%
<0.1%
ClemsonWake Forest
22.7%
<0.1%
Georgia TechStanford
22.2%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeNorth Carolina
21.9%
<0.1%
StanfordWake Forest
21.7%
<0.1%
NC StateWake Forest
20.6%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeNC State
20.6%
<0.1%
NC StateNorth Carolina
20.4%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeStanford
20.0%
<0.1%
ClemsonMiami FL
19.2%
0.6%
North CarolinaWake Forest
19.1%
<0.1%
Miami FLNC State
17.3%
0.7%
Georgia TechMiami FL
17.1%
0.7%
NC StateVirginia
16.7%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeWake Forest
16.1%
<0.1%
Miami FLNorth Carolina
15.5%
0.6%
Miami FLStanford
15.4%
0.1%
Georgia TechVirginia
15.3%
<0.1%
ClemsonVirginia
15.2%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeMiami FL
14.2%
0.1%
Georgia TechWake Forest
13.8%
<0.1%
North CarolinaStanford
13.3%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeVirginia
12.7%
<0.1%
North CarolinaVirginia
11.8%
<0.1%
Miami FLWake Forest
11.3%
0.9%
Boston CollegeGeorgia Tech
10.8%
<0.1%
VirginiaWake Forest
10.3%
0.1%
StanfordVirginia
9.6%
<0.1%
Miami FLVirginia
7.0%
3.0%
NC StateStanford
6.9%
<0.1%
Any 3 losses
5.8%
1.8%
Boston CollegeNC StateWilliam & Mary
50.0%
<0.1%
NC StateStanfordWilliam & Mary
50.0%
<0.1%
ClemsonNC StateWilliam & Mary
42.9%
<0.1%
Georgia TechNorth CarolinaWilliam & Mary
38.5%
<0.1%
NC StateWake ForestWilliam & Mary
33.3%
<0.1%
ClemsonNorth CarolinaWilliam & Mary
33.3%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeClemsonWilliam & Mary
33.3%
<0.1%
ClemsonStanfordWilliam & Mary
25.0%
<0.1%
Georgia TechNC StateWilliam & Mary
25.0%
<0.1%
ClemsonGeorgia TechWilliam & Mary
23.5%
<0.1%
NC StateNorth CarolinaWilliam & Mary
21.4%
<0.1%
ClemsonMiami FLWilliam & Mary
19.9%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeMiami FLWilliam & Mary
17.3%
<0.1%
Georgia TechMiami FLWilliam & Mary
17.2%
<0.1%
Miami FLNorth CarolinaWilliam & Mary
17.0%
<0.1%
Miami FLStanfordWilliam & Mary
17.0%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeGeorgia TechWilliam & Mary
16.7%
<0.1%
Georgia TechVirginiaWilliam & Mary
16.5%
<0.1%
Miami FLNC StateWilliam & Mary
16.2%
<0.1%
Georgia TechWake ForestWilliam & Mary
15.6%
<0.1%
ClemsonWake ForestWilliam & Mary
14.8%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeVirginiaWilliam & Mary
14.3%
<0.1%
ClemsonVirginiaWilliam & Mary
13.8%
<0.1%
NC StateVirginiaWilliam & Mary
11.7%
<0.1%
Miami FLWake ForestWilliam & Mary
11.7%
0.1%
Boston CollegeClemsonNorth Carolina
11.1%
<0.1%
North CarolinaVirginiaWilliam & Mary
10.1%
<0.1%
VirginiaWake ForestWilliam & Mary
8.5%
<0.1%
Miami FLVirginiaWilliam & Mary
7.5%
0.3%
Boston CollegeClemsonGeorgia Tech
4.3%
<0.1%
North CarolinaWake ForestWilliam & Mary
4.2%
<0.1%
ClemsonGeorgia TechNorth Carolina
1.1%
<0.1%
NC StateStanfordVirginia
0.9%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeMiami FLStanford
0.8%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeClemsonVirginia
0.8%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeMiami FLNorth Carolina
0.8%
0.1%
ClemsonNorth CarolinaWake Forest
0.8%
<0.1%
Georgia TechNC StateNorth Carolina
0.7%
<0.1%
StanfordVirginiaWake Forest
0.6%
<0.1%
ClemsonGeorgia TechWake Forest
0.6%
<0.1%
ClemsonNC StateVirginia
0.6%
<0.1%
Georgia TechMiami FLNC State
0.5%
0.5%
Boston CollegeMiami FLNC State
0.5%
0.1%
North CarolinaVirginiaWake Forest
0.5%
<0.1%
Any 4 losses
0.8%
0.2%
Georgia TechNC StateVirginiaWilliam & Mary
1.8%
<0.1%
NC StateNorth CarolinaVirginiaWilliam & Mary
1.6%
<0.1%
Miami FLStanfordWake ForestWilliam & Mary
1.3%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeGeorgia TechMiami FLWilliam & Mary
0.9%
<0.1%
ClemsonMiami FLStanfordWilliam & Mary
0.9%
<0.1%
Boston CollegeMiami FLNorth CarolinaWilliam & Mary
0.8%
<0.1%
ClemsonMiami FLNorth CarolinaWilliam & Mary
0.7%
<0.1%
Miami FLNorth CarolinaWake ForestWilliam & Mary
0.6%
<0.1%
Georgia TechMiami FLNC StateWilliam & Mary
0.5%
<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-19 • SportsSimulate.com

DukeCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-19 • SportsSimulate.com