DukeBlue Devils

6-2 T5th (3-2) in ACC

Data from 2026-11-02

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.7%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Duke's probability of making the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?

Duke has a 0.7% chance to reach the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Duke's Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

What does Duke need to do to reach the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?

A perfect run to the end of the season puts Duke's Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game odds at 77.0%; even one more loss drops that to 1.6%.

What is the biggest game this week for Duke's Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game odds?

Duke's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating NC State would put its Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game odds at 0.9%, while a loss would drop them to <0.1%.

Schedule & Results

Wk	Date	Opponent	Result
1	9/05	vsTulaneTULN	W17-3
2	9/12	@IllinoisILL	W31-27
3	9/19	vsStanfordSTAN	W35-7
4	9/26	vsWilliam & MaryW&M	W62-7
6	10/10	@Georgia TechGT	L25-28
7	10/17	vsNorth CarolinaUNC	L20-24
8	10/23	@VirginiaUVA	W19-16
9	10/31	vsBoston CollegeBC	W47-2
10	11/07	@NC StateNCSU	Win prob:71%
11	11/14	@MiamiMIA	Win prob:6%
12	11/20	vsClemsonCLEM	Win prob:68%
13	11/28	@Wake ForestWAKE	Win prob:21%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
7-2	0.6%	77.0%
6-3	12.6%	1.3%
5-4	46.7%	0%
4-5	33.4%	0%
3-6	6.7%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

MiamiMIA

100%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Time	Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins
Fri, Nov 6Friday, November 6
	Virginia TechVT@SMUSMU	0.9% (+0.2%)	0.6% (-0.1%)
Sat, Nov 7Saturday, November 7
	ClemsonCLEM@SyracuseSYR	0.7% (+0.0%)	0.6% (-0.0%)
	Florida StateFSU@Boston CollegeBC	0.6% (-0.0%)	0.7% (+0.1%)
	North CarolinaUNC@UConnCONN	0.7% (+0.0%)	0.7% (+0.0%)
	DukeDUKE@NC StateNCSU	0.9% (+0.3%)	0.0% (-0.6%)
	MerrimackMRMK@Wake ForestWAKE	1.3% (+0.6%)	0.6% (-0.1%)
	LouisvilleLOU@Georgia TechGT	0.6% (-0.0%)	1.0% (+0.4%)
	MiamiMIA@Notre DameND	0.7% (+0.0%)	0.7% (+0.0%)