DukeBlue Devils
0-0 T1st (0-0) in ACC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
2.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Duke's probability of making the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?
Duke has a 2.8% chance to reach the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Duke's Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:59% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:38% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:71% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:43% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:53% | ||
| 10/23 | Win prob:34% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:70% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:44% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:11% | ||
| 11/20 | Win prob:33% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:45% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 0.5% | 96.4% |
| 7-2 | 3.1% | 59.0% |
| 6-3 | 10.6% | 4.7% |
| 5-4 | 22.3% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 27.9% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 22.0% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 10.6% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 2.6% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.3% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 2.9% (+0.1%) | 2.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 2.8% (-0.1%) | 2.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 2.8% (+0.0%) | 2.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 2.8% (+0.0%) | 2.8% (-0.0%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
98.6%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.8%
<0.1%93.3%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
69.3%
0.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%91.2%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%67.3%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.7%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.9%
0.1%54.5%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.3%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%45.8%
<0.1%44.3%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
32.9%
3.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.1%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.0%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%68.1%
<0.1%67.6%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.6%
<0.1%65.4%
<0.1%63.3%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.1%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.1%
<0.1%59.1%
<0.1%58.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%53.7%
0.1%52.8%
0.1%52.8%
<0.1%52.6%
<0.1%51.1%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.3%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%41.4%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.2%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.6%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.1%
0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.2%
0.1%5.1%
0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.7%
0.2%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.0%
0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
0.1%0.9%
0.1%Any 4 losses
13.3%
5.4%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%76.2%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%53.8%
<0.1%53.4%
<0.1%52.9%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.6%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.1%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.0%
0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.3%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
0.2%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.2%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%6.0%
0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.5%
0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.4%
0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.2%
0.2%5.1%
0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.1%
0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.8%
0.2%3.7%
0.2%3.5%
<0.1%3.4%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.3%
0.1%3.1%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
0.1%2.7%
<0.1%2.6%
0.3%2.5%
0.2%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%Data from 2026-08-26