North Carolina

North CarolinaTar Heels

0-0 T1st (0-0) in ACC

Data from 2026-08-26

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

2.3%

Based on 100,000 simulations

What is North Carolina's probability of making the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?

North Carolina has a 2.3% chance to reach the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. North Carolina's Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

North CarolinaSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
8/29
vsTCUTCU(N)
Win prob:47%
9/12
vsEast Tennessee StateETSU
Win prob:90%
9/19
@ClemsonCLEM
Win prob:26%
10/03
vsNotre DameND
Win prob:14%
10/10
@PittsburghPITT
Win prob:40%
10/17
@DukeDUKE
Win prob:47%
10/24
vsSyracuseSYR
Win prob:69%
10/31
vsMiami FLMIA
Win prob:20%
11/07
@UConnCONN
Win prob:79%
11/14
vsLouisvilleLOU
Win prob:45%
11/21
@VirginiaUVA
Win prob:37%
11/28
vsNC StateNCSU
Win prob:59%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

North CarolinaRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
0.1%
100.0%
7-1
0.9%
91.7%
6-2
5.0%
27.8%
5-3
15.0%
0.2%
4-4
26.3%
0%
3-5
28.0%
0%
2-6
17.9%
0%
1-7
6.0%
0%
0-8
0.9%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely North Carolina CCG Opponents

if North Carolina makes the CCG

MiamiMiami FL
63.8%
SMUSMU
13.3%
ClemsonClemson
11.2%
LouisvilleLouisville
7.1%
Florida StateFlorida St
4.6%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

North CarolinaThis Week's Impact

Game
North CarolinaCCG OddsAway
North CarolinaCCG OddsHome
NC StateNCSU@VirginiaUVA
2.4%
(+0.1%)		2.2%
(-0.1%)
New Mexico StNMSU@Florida StFSU
1.9%
(-0.4%)		2.3%
(+0.0%)
North CarolinaUNC@TCUTCU
2.3%
(+0.0%)		2.2%
(-0.0%)
HawaiiHAW@StanfordSTAN
2.2%
(-0.1%)		2.4%
(+0.1%)

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

North CarolinaLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
North Carolina CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
93.3%
<0.1%
Notre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
NC State
100.0%
<0.1%
Clemson
100.0%
<0.1%
Louisville
100.0%
<0.1%
Pittsburgh
100.0%
<0.1%
Miami FL
100.0%
<0.1%
UConn
100.0%
<0.1%
Syracuse
100.0%
<0.1%
Duke
100.0%
<0.1%
Virginia
66.7%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
70.2%
0.5%
ClemsonUConn
100.0%
<0.1%
DukeUConn
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameSyracuse
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameTCU
100.0%
<0.1%
ClemsonTCU
100.0%
<0.1%
ClemsonSyracuse
100.0%
<0.1%
SyracuseUConn
100.0%
<0.1%
PittsburghUConn
100.0%
<0.1%
DukeTCU
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameUConn
100.0%
<0.1%
NC StatePittsburgh
100.0%
<0.1%
TCUVirginia
100.0%
<0.1%
PittsburghTCU
100.0%
<0.1%
UConnVirginia
100.0%
<0.1%
NC StateSyracuse
100.0%
<0.1%
East Tennessee StatePittsburgh
100.0%
<0.1%
Miami FLUConn
100.0%
<0.1%
TCUUConn
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DamePittsburgh
96.5%
<0.1%
DukeNotre Dame
95.2%
<0.1%
Notre DameVirginia
94.9%
<0.1%
NC StateNotre Dame
92.3%
<0.1%
LouisvilleNotre Dame
89.5%
<0.1%
Miami FLTCU
88.9%
<0.1%
ClemsonNotre Dame
88.7%
<0.1%
Miami FLNotre Dame
87.2%
<0.1%
LouisvilleTCU
75.0%
<0.1%
LouisvillePittsburgh
66.7%
<0.1%
LouisvilleSyracuse
66.7%
<0.1%
SyracuseVirginia
66.7%
<0.1%
NC StateTCU
66.7%
<0.1%
Miami FLNC State
50.0%
<0.1%
DukeSyracuse
50.0%
<0.1%
DukeNC State
42.9%
<0.1%
Miami FLVirginia
38.9%
<0.1%
Miami FLPittsburgh
33.3%
<0.1%
NC StateVirginia
33.3%
<0.1%
LouisvilleMiami FL
29.4%
<0.1%
DukePittsburgh
28.6%
<0.1%
DukeMiami FL
27.3%
<0.1%
ClemsonMiami FL
26.1%
<0.1%
ClemsonLouisville
25.0%
<0.1%
ClemsonVirginia
23.5%
<0.1%
LouisvilleVirginia
16.7%
<0.1%
ClemsonPittsburgh
12.5%
<0.1%
ClemsonDuke
11.1%
<0.1%
Any 3 losses
38.3%
2.2%
Notre DameTCUVirginia
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameTCUUConn
100.0%
<0.1%
DukeEast Tennessee StateMiami FL
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DamePittsburghUConn
100.0%
<0.1%
East Tennessee StateNotre DameSyracuse
100.0%
<0.1%
SyracuseTCUUConn
100.0%
<0.1%
DukeEast Tennessee StateNotre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
ClemsonEast Tennessee StateNotre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameSyracuseTCU
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameUConnVirginia
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisvilleNotre DameUConn
100.0%
<0.1%
East Tennessee StateNC StateNotre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
East Tennessee StateNotre DameUConn
100.0%
<0.1%
East Tennessee StateLouisvilleSyracuse
100.0%
<0.1%
East Tennessee StateLouisvilleNotre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
East Tennessee StateNotre DamePittsburgh
100.0%
<0.1%
ClemsonEast Tennessee StateTCU
100.0%
<0.1%
East Tennessee StatePittsburghTCU
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisvilleTCUUConn
100.0%
<0.1%
NC StateNotre DameUConn
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameSyracuseUConn
100.0%
<0.1%
TCUUConnVirginia
100.0%
<0.1%
DukeEast Tennessee StateTCU
100.0%
<0.1%
DukeEast Tennessee StateNC State
100.0%
<0.1%
East Tennessee StateNotre DameVirginia
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisvilleNotre DameTCU
95.7%
<0.1%
Notre DamePittsburghTCU
94.4%
<0.1%
ClemsonNotre DameTCU
93.5%
<0.1%
Miami FLNotre DameTCU
90.6%
<0.1%
DukeNotre DameTCU
89.5%
<0.1%
ClemsonNotre DameUConn
88.2%
<0.1%
Miami FLNotre DameUConn
87.5%
<0.1%
East Tennessee StateMiami FLNotre Dame
85.7%
<0.1%
Miami FLTCUUConn
83.3%
<0.1%
ClemsonTCUUConn
80.0%
<0.1%
DukeNotre DameUConn
80.0%
<0.1%
NC StateNotre DameTCU
78.6%
<0.1%
ClemsonDukeUConn
66.7%
<0.1%
NC StateNotre DameSyracuse
57.1%
<0.1%
NC StateNotre DamePittsburgh
56.3%
<0.1%
DukeNC StateNotre Dame
50.0%
<0.1%
LouisvilleMiami FLUConn
50.0%
<0.1%
ClemsonNC StateUConn
50.0%
<0.1%
PittsburghUConnVirginia
50.0%
<0.1%
DukeLouisvilleTCU
50.0%
<0.1%
East Tennessee StateTCUVirginia
50.0%
<0.1%
Miami FLSyracuseTCU
50.0%
<0.1%
DukeMiami FLUConn
50.0%
<0.1%
Miami FLSyracuseUConn
50.0%
<0.1%
Notre DamePittsburghSyracuse
50.0%
<0.1%
East Tennessee StateMiami FLUConn
50.0%
<0.1%
ClemsonLouisvilleUConn
50.0%
<0.1%
DukePittsburghUConn
50.0%
<0.1%
LouisvilleSyracuseTCU
50.0%
<0.1%
East Tennessee StateMiami FLSyracuse
50.0%
<0.1%
DukeNC StateUConn
50.0%
<0.1%
LouisvillePittsburghUConn
50.0%
<0.1%
DukeNotre DamePittsburgh
46.7%
<0.1%
LouisvilleNotre DameVirginia
42.9%
<0.1%
Notre DameSyracuseVirginia
41.7%
<0.1%
LouisvilleTCUVirginia
40.0%
<0.1%
Miami FLNotre DameSyracuse
38.9%
<0.1%
Miami FLPittsburghTCU
37.5%
<0.1%
DukeTCUVirginia
37.5%
<0.1%
ClemsonNC StateTCU
37.5%
<0.1%
ClemsonNC StateNotre Dame
36.4%
<0.1%
DukeNotre DameSyracuse
36.4%
<0.1%
DukeMiami FLNotre Dame
35.9%
0.1%
NC StateNotre DameVirginia
35.3%
<0.1%
Miami FLTCUVirginia
33.3%
<0.1%
Miami FLNC StateTCU
33.3%
<0.1%
LouisvilleNotre DamePittsburgh
33.3%
<0.1%
ClemsonMiami FLUConn
33.3%
<0.1%
East Tennessee StateLouisvillePittsburgh
33.3%
<0.1%
East Tennessee StateMiami FLPittsburgh
33.3%
<0.1%
DukeNC StateTCU
33.3%
<0.1%
DukePittsburghTCU
33.3%
<0.1%
PittsburghTCUVirginia
33.3%
<0.1%
East Tennessee StateMiami FLTCU
33.3%
<0.1%
SyracuseTCUVirginia
33.3%
<0.1%
ClemsonNotre DameVirginia
32.8%
<0.1%
Notre DamePittsburghVirginia
32.0%
<0.1%
Miami FLNotre DamePittsburgh
31.0%
0.1%
Miami FLNotre DameVirginia
30.2%
0.1%
LouisvilleNC StateNotre Dame
30.0%
<0.1%
ClemsonDukeTCU
30.0%
<0.1%
ClemsonNotre DamePittsburgh
29.2%
<0.1%
LouisvillePittsburghTCU
28.6%
<0.1%
ClemsonNotre DameSyracuse
28.6%
<0.1%
DukeNotre DameVirginia
26.9%
<0.1%
LouisvilleNotre DameSyracuse
26.7%
<0.1%
ClemsonDukeNotre Dame
25.8%
<0.1%
Miami FLNC StateNotre Dame
25.5%
<0.1%
LouisvilleNC StateTCU
25.0%
<0.1%
ClemsonSyracuseTCU
25.0%
<0.1%
DukeLouisvilleNotre Dame
24.1%
<0.1%
DukeMiami FLTCU
23.5%
<0.1%
LouisvilleMiami FLTCU
23.5%
<0.1%
ClemsonLouisvilleTCU
22.2%
<0.1%
ClemsonMiami FLTCU
21.4%
<0.1%
Miami FLUConnVirginia
20.0%
<0.1%
Miami FLPittsburghUConn
20.0%
<0.1%
ClemsonTCUVirginia
20.0%
<0.1%
ClemsonMiami FLNotre Dame
18.0%
0.2%
NC StateTCUVirginia
16.7%
<0.1%
ClemsonEast Tennessee StateMiami FL
14.3%
<0.1%
LouisvilleMiami FLNotre Dame
13.1%
0.1%
ClemsonPittsburghTCU
12.5%
<0.1%
ClemsonLouisvilleNotre Dame
12.5%
<0.1%
Miami FLNC StateVirginia
7.7%
<0.1%
ClemsonMiami FLVirginia
1.3%
<0.1%
Any 4 losses
22.4%
3.2%
DukeTCUUConnVirginia
100.0%
<0.1%
DukeEast Tennessee StateNotre DameTCU
100.0%
<0.1%
East Tennessee StateLouisvilleNotre DameTCU
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DamePittsburghTCUUConn
100.0%
<0.1%
East Tennessee StateMiami FLNotre DameUConn
100.0%
<0.1%
East Tennessee StateNotre DameTCUUConn
100.0%
<0.1%
NC StateNotre DameTCUUConn
100.0%
<0.1%
East Tennessee StateNotre DameTCUVirginia
100.0%
<0.1%
East Tennessee StateLouisvilleNotre DameUConn
100.0%
<0.1%
East Tennessee StateLouisvilleNC StateTCU
100.0%
<0.1%
East Tennessee StateNC StateNotre DameTCU
100.0%
<0.1%
LouisvilleNC StateTCUUConn
100.0%
<0.1%
East Tennessee StateLouisvilleNC StateNotre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
ClemsonEast Tennessee StatePittsburghTCU
100.0%
<0.1%
DukeEast Tennessee StateLouisvilleTCU
100.0%
<0.1%
East Tennessee StateNotre DamePittsburghTCU
100.0%
<0.1%
East Tennessee StateNotre DameSyracuseTCU
100.0%
<0.1%
ClemsonEast Tennessee StateTCUUConn
100.0%
<0.1%
ClemsonNotre DameTCUUConn
92.9%
<0.1%
East Tennessee StateMiami FLNotre DameTCU
91.7%
<0.1%
Notre DameTCUUConnVirginia
88.9%
<0.1%
LouisvilleNotre DameTCUUConn
88.9%
<0.1%
DukeNotre DameTCUUConn
83.3%
<0.1%
Miami FLNotre DameTCUUConn
81.8%
<0.1%
East Tennessee StateNC StateNotre DamePittsburgh
80.0%
<0.1%
ClemsonEast Tennessee StateNotre DameTCU
75.0%
<0.1%
DukeNotre DameSyracuseTCU
72.7%
<0.1%
Notre DamePittsburghUConnVirginia
70.6%
<0.1%
East Tennessee StateMiami FLNotre DamePittsburgh
66.7%
<0.1%
DukeLouisvilleNotre DameUConn
66.7%
<0.1%
ClemsonDukeEast Tennessee StateNotre Dame
66.7%
<0.1%
East Tennessee StateMiami FLNotre DameSyracuse
66.7%
<0.1%
Notre DameSyracuseTCUUConn
66.7%
<0.1%
SyracuseTCUUConnVirginia
66.7%
<0.1%
NC StateNotre DameSyracuseTCU
60.0%
<0.1%
DukeEast Tennessee StateMiami FLNotre Dame
60.0%
<0.1%
LouisvilleMiami FLTCUUConn
60.0%
<0.1%
Miami FLTCUUConnVirginia
57.1%
<0.1%
Notre DamePittsburghSyracuseTCU
54.5%
<0.1%
LouisvilleNC StateNotre DameTCU
50.0%
<0.1%
LouisvilleTCUUConnVirginia
50.0%
<0.1%
DukeNotre DameTCUVirginia
50.0%
<0.1%
NC StateNotre DamePittsburghUConn
50.0%
<0.1%
East Tennessee StateNotre DamePittsburghSyracuse
50.0%
<0.1%
DukeNotre DameSyracuseUConn
50.0%
<0.1%
ClemsonNotre DamePittsburghUConn
50.0%
<0.1%
PittsburghSyracuseTCUUConn
50.0%
<0.1%
East Tennessee StateNotre DameSyracuseVirginia
50.0%
<0.1%
East Tennessee StateLouisvilleNotre DamePittsburgh
50.0%
<0.1%
ClemsonEast Tennessee StateNotre DameSyracuse
50.0%
<0.1%
Miami FLNC StateTCUUConn
50.0%
<0.1%
DukeEast Tennessee StateNotre DamePittsburgh
42.9%
<0.1%
Miami FLNotre DameSyracuseUConn
42.9%
<0.1%
East Tennessee StateMiami FLNotre DameVirginia
41.2%
<0.1%
LouisvilleNotre DameSyracuseUConn
40.0%
<0.1%
Notre DamePittsburghTCUVirginia
39.7%
<0.1%
Miami FLNotre DamePittsburghUConn
38.5%
<0.1%
LouisvilleNotre DamePittsburghTCU
37.7%
<0.1%
ClemsonPittsburghTCUUConn
37.5%
<0.1%
NC StateNotre DameTCUVirginia
36.0%
<0.1%
Miami FLNotre DameSyracuseTCU
35.0%
<0.1%
Miami FLNC StateNotre DameUConn
35.0%
<0.1%
Miami FLPittsburghTCUUConn
33.3%
<0.1%
DukeNotre DamePittsburghTCU
33.3%
<0.1%
LouisvilleNotre DameUConnVirginia
33.3%
<0.1%
ClemsonNC StateTCUUConn
33.3%
<0.1%
DukeNotre DamePittsburghUConn
33.3%
<0.1%
DukeLouisvilleTCUUConn
33.3%
<0.1%
DukeEast Tennessee StatePittsburghTCU
33.3%
<0.1%
DukeNC StateNotre DameUConn
33.3%
<0.1%
NC StateNotre DameSyracuseUConn
33.3%
<0.1%
DukeEast Tennessee StateNotre DameVirginia
33.3%
<0.1%
LouisvilleNC StateNotre DameUConn
33.3%
<0.1%
Miami FLNotre DamePittsburghTCU
32.2%
0.1%
DukeLouisvilleNotre DameTCU
32.1%
<0.1%
LouisvilleNotre DameTCUVirginia
32.0%
<0.1%
ClemsonDukeNotre DameUConn
31.3%
<0.1%
DukeMiami FLNotre DameTCU
31.0%
<0.1%
ClemsonLouisvilleTCUUConn
30.0%
<0.1%
ClemsonNotre DameSyracuseTCU
28.6%
<0.1%
DukeNC StateNotre DameTCU
28.6%
<0.1%
NC StateNotre DameUConnVirginia
28.6%
<0.1%
LouisvilleNotre DamePittsburghUConn
28.6%
<0.1%
Notre DameSyracuseTCUVirginia
27.8%
<0.1%
LouisvilleMiami FLNotre DameUConn
27.6%
<0.1%
ClemsonNC StateNotre DameUConn
27.3%
<0.1%
Miami FLNC StateNotre DameTCU
26.4%
<0.1%
ClemsonNotre DamePittsburghTCU
25.9%
<0.1%
ClemsonDukeEast Tennessee StateTCU
25.0%
<0.1%
LouisvilleNotre DameSyracuseTCU
25.0%
<0.1%
LouisvillePittsburghTCUUConn
25.0%
<0.1%
DukeMiami FLNotre DameUConn
20.8%
<0.1%
Miami FLNotre DameTCUVirginia
20.3%
0.2%
ClemsonNotre DameTCUVirginia
20.2%
<0.1%
ClemsonNC StateNotre DameTCU
20.0%
<0.1%
DukeMiami FLTCUUConn
20.0%
<0.1%
East Tennessee StateLouisvilleMiami FLNotre Dame
20.0%
<0.1%
ClemsonTCUUConnVirginia
20.0%
<0.1%
Miami FLNotre DameUConnVirginia
19.6%
<0.1%
ClemsonDukeNotre DameTCU
18.9%
<0.1%
ClemsonLouisvilleNotre DameTCU
18.5%
<0.1%
ClemsonMiami FLNotre DameTCU
17.9%
0.3%
ClemsonMiami FLTCUUConn
17.6%
<0.1%
NC StateNotre DamePittsburghTCU
17.4%
<0.1%
ClemsonEast Tennessee StateMiami FLNotre Dame
16.7%
<0.1%
ClemsonEast Tennessee StateNC StateNotre Dame
16.7%
<0.1%
DukeNotre DameUConnVirginia
16.7%
<0.1%
ClemsonEast Tennessee StateNotre DameVirginia
15.4%
<0.1%
ClemsonEast Tennessee StateLouisvilleNotre Dame
14.3%
<0.1%
ClemsonNotre DameUConnVirginia
13.0%
<0.1%
LouisvilleMiami FLNotre DameTCU
12.9%
<0.1%
DukeMiami FLNC StateTCU
12.5%
<0.1%
ClemsonMiami FLNotre DameUConn
10.7%
<0.1%
ClemsonLouisvilleNotre DameUConn
8.7%
<0.1%
DukeNC StateNotre DamePittsburgh
6.3%
<0.1%
DukeMiami FLNotre DameSyracuse
3.5%
<0.1%
DukeMiami FLPittsburghTCU
3.2%
<0.1%
ClemsonNotre DamePittsburghSyracuse
2.2%
<0.1%
Miami FLNotre DameSyracuseVirginia
1.7%
<0.1%
DukeMiami FLNotre DamePittsburgh
1.5%
0.1%
DukeLouisvilleMiami FLNotre Dame
1.0%
0.1%
ClemsonMiami FLNotre DameVirginia
0.5%
0.4%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com