North CarolinaTar Heels

4-4 T9th (2-3) in ACC

Data from 2026-11-02

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.0%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is North Carolina's probability of making the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?

North Carolina has a <0.1% chance to reach the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. North Carolina's Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

What is the biggest game this week for North Carolina's Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game odds?

The biggest swing game for North Carolina's Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game odds this week isn't even its own: a Merrimack win would boost them to 0.1%, while a Wake Forest win would leave them at -.

Schedule & Results

Wk	Date	Opponent	Result
0	8/29	vsTCUTCU(N)	W15-10
2	9/12	vsEast Tennessee StateETSU	W35-3
3	9/19	@ClemsonCLEM	L20-28
5	10/03	vsNotre DameND	L26-37
6	10/10	@PittsburghPITT	W21-17
7	10/17	@DukeDUKE	W24-20
8	10/24	vsSyracuseSYR	L30-31
9	10/31	vsMiamiMIA	L35-38
10	11/07	@UConnCONN	Win prob:83%
11	11/14	vsLouisvilleLOU	Win prob:40%
12	11/21	@VirginiaUVA	Win prob:58%
13	11/28	vsNC StateNCSU	Win prob:80%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Record Probabilities

Conf Record	Probability	CCG if this record
5-3	18.5%	0.1%
4-4	45.9%	0%
3-5	30.5%	0%
2-6	5.1%	0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible CCG Opponents

if makes the CCG

MiamiMIA

100%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

This Week's Impact

Time	Game	CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins	CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins
Fri, Nov 6Friday, November 6
	Virginia TechVT@SMUSMU	0.0% (+0.0%)	0.0% (-0.0%)
Sat, Nov 7Saturday, November 7
	ClemsonCLEM@SyracuseSYR	0.0% (+0.0%)	0.0% (+0.0%)
	Florida StateFSU@Boston CollegeBC	0.0% (+0.0%)	0.0% (+0.0%)
	North CarolinaUNC@UConnCONN	0.0% (+0.0%)	0.0% (-0.0%)
	DukeDUKE@NC StateNCSU	0.0% (-0.0%)	0.0% (+0.0%)
	MerrimackMRMK@Wake ForestWAKE	0.1% (+0.1%)	0.0% (-0.0%)
	LouisvilleLOU@Georgia TechGT	0.0% (+0.0%)	0.0% (-0.0%)
	MiamiMIA@Notre DameND	0.0% (+0.0%)	0.0% (+0.0%)