North Carolina

North CarolinaTar Heels

2-0 T5th (0-0) in ACC

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.3%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is North Carolina's probability of making the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?

North Carolina has a 0.3% chance to reach the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. North Carolina's Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

North CarolinaSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
08/29
vsTCUTCU(N)
W15-10
29/12
vsEast Tennessee StateETSU
W35-3
39/19
@ClemsonCLEM
Win prob:45%
510/03
vsNotre DameND
Win prob:6%
610/10
@PittsburghPITT
Win prob:26%
710/17
@DukeDUKE
Win prob:41%
810/24
vsSyracuseSYR
Win prob:74%
910/31
vsMiami FLMIA
Win prob:8%
1011/07
@UConnCONN
Win prob:89%
1111/14
vsLouisvilleLOU
Win prob:40%
1211/21
@VirginiaUVA
Win prob:23%
1311/28
vsNC StateNCSU
Win prob:70%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

North CarolinaRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-0
0.0%
100.0%
7-1
0.4%
50.9%
6-2
3.2%
2.9%
5-3
12.3%
0%
4-4
26.0%
0%
3-5
30.8%
0%
2-6
20.1%
0%
1-7
6.5%
0%
0-8
0.8%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible North Carolina CCG Opponents

if North Carolina makes the CCG

MIAMiami FL
78.1%
SMUSMU
12.5%
UVAVirginia
3.1%
LOULouisville
3.1%
VTVirginia Tech
3.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

North CarolinaThis Week's Impact

Game
North CarolinaCCG OddsAway Wins
North CarolinaCCG OddsHome Wins
Thu, Sep 17
SyracuseSYR@PittsburghPITT
0.4%
(+0.0%)		0.3%
(-0.0%)
Fri, Sep 18
Miami FLMIA@Wake ForestWAKE
0.3%
(-0.0%)		0.4%
(+0.1%)
Sat, Sep 19
MercerMER@Georgia TechGT
0.3%
(-0.0%)		0.3%
(+0.0%)
North CarolinaUNC@ClemsonCLEM
0.6%
(+0.3%)		0.1%
(-0.3%)
NC StateNCSU@VanderbiltVAN
0.3%
(+0.0%)		0.3%
(+0.0%)
MaineME@Boston CollegeBC
0.3%
(+0.0%)		0.3%
(+0.0%)
Florida StFSU@AlabamaALA
0.3%
(-0.0%)		0.3%
(+0.0%)
SMUSMU@LouisvilleLOU
0.2%
(-0.1%)		0.4%
(+0.1%)
WagnerWAG@CaliforniaCAL
0.3%
(+0.0%)		0.3%
(+0.0%)
StanfordSTAN@DukeDUKE
0.3%
(-0.0%)		0.3%
(+0.0%)
Virginia TechVT@MarylandMD
0.3%
(+0.0%)		0.3%
(+0.0%)
West VirginiaWVU@VirginiaUVA
0.3%
(+0.0%)		0.3%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

North CarolinaLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
North Carolina CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
84.6%
<0.1%
Notre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
NC State
100.0%
<0.1%
Syracuse
100.0%
<0.1%
UConn
100.0%
<0.1%
Louisville
66.7%
<0.1%
Miami FL
53.8%
<0.1%
Pittsburgh
52.2%
<0.1%
Clemson
50.0%
<0.1%
Duke
33.3%
<0.1%
Virginia
32.4%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
39.6%
0.4%
Notre DameUConn
100.0%
<0.1%
NC StateNotre Dame
73.6%
<0.1%
Notre DameSyracuse
69.2%
<0.1%
ClemsonNotre Dame
60.7%
<0.1%
Notre DamePittsburgh
57.4%
<0.1%
Notre DameVirginia
52.2%
<0.1%
DukeNotre Dame
51.2%
<0.1%
DukeUConn
50.0%
<0.1%
LouisvilleNotre Dame
48.5%
<0.1%
Miami FLNotre Dame
47.0%
0.2%
Miami FLUConn
45.5%
<0.1%
PittsburghUConn
33.3%
<0.1%
NC StateVirginia
8.3%
<0.1%
ClemsonPittsburgh
6.1%
<0.1%
ClemsonLouisville
5.9%
<0.1%
Miami FLSyracuse
5.6%
<0.1%
DukeMiami FL
5.0%
<0.1%
ClemsonMiami FL
4.0%
<0.1%
DukeLouisville
3.9%
<0.1%
ClemsonVirginia
3.5%
<0.1%
LouisvillePittsburgh
3.0%
<0.1%
DukeVirginia
2.9%
<0.1%
Miami FLNC State
2.7%
<0.1%
Miami FLPittsburgh
2.6%
<0.1%
Miami FLVirginia
1.5%
<0.1%
LouisvilleMiami FL
0.7%
<0.1%
Any 3 losses
3.5%
2.7%
ClemsonNotre DameUConn
60.9%
<0.1%
NC StateNotre DameUConn
55.6%
<0.1%
LouisvilleNotre DameUConn
54.5%
<0.1%
Miami FLNotre DameUConn
52.3%
<0.1%
DukeNotre DameUConn
52.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameSyracuseUConn
50.0%
<0.1%
Notre DamePittsburghUConn
45.3%
<0.1%
Notre DameUConnVirginia
42.3%
<0.1%
ClemsonDukeUConn
33.3%
<0.1%
ClemsonMiami FLUConn
14.3%
<0.1%
LouisvillePittsburghUConn
10.0%
<0.1%
ClemsonNC StateNotre Dame
9.0%
<0.1%
LouisvilleMiami FLUConn
6.3%
<0.1%
DukeNC StateNotre Dame
5.8%
<0.1%
Miami FLNotre DameSyracuse
5.4%
<0.1%
DukeMiami FLUConn
5.3%
<0.1%
Miami FLPittsburghUConn
5.3%
<0.1%
ClemsonNotre DameSyracuse
5.2%
<0.1%
NC StateNotre DamePittsburgh
4.8%
<0.1%
Notre DamePittsburghSyracuse
4.6%
<0.1%
Miami FLNC StateNotre Dame
4.5%
<0.1%
DukeMiami FLNotre Dame
4.2%
0.3%
ClemsonMiami FLNotre Dame
4.1%
0.2%
NC StateNotre DameSyracuse
4.0%
<0.1%
ClemsonDukeNotre Dame
3.2%
<0.1%
Miami FLUConnVirginia
3.1%
<0.1%
Miami FLNotre DamePittsburgh
3.1%
0.5%
LouisvilleNC StateNotre Dame
3.0%
<0.1%
DukeNotre DameSyracuse
2.7%
<0.1%
ClemsonNotre DameVirginia
2.6%
<0.1%
DukeNotre DamePittsburgh
2.5%
<0.1%
NC StateNotre DameVirginia
2.4%
<0.1%
Miami FLNotre DameVirginia
2.3%
0.6%
DukeLouisvilleNotre Dame
2.1%
<0.1%
Notre DameSyracuseVirginia
2.1%
<0.1%
Notre DamePittsburghVirginia
2.1%
0.1%
ClemsonNotre DamePittsburgh
2.0%
<0.1%
ClemsonLouisvilleNotre Dame
1.9%
<0.1%
LouisvilleMiami FLNotre Dame
1.7%
0.3%
DukeNotre DameVirginia
1.7%
<0.1%
LouisvilleNotre DameVirginia
1.6%
<0.1%
LouisvilleNotre DameSyracuse
1.5%
<0.1%
LouisvilleNotre DamePittsburgh
1.5%
<0.1%
Any 4 losses
3.3%
0.3%
ClemsonNC StateNotre DameUConn
80.0%
<0.1%
DukeNotre DameSyracuseUConn
25.0%
<0.1%
DukeNC StateNotre DameUConn
16.7%
<0.1%
ClemsonNotre DameSyracuseUConn
16.7%
<0.1%
LouisvilleNotre DameSyracuseUConn
12.5%
<0.1%
NC StateNotre DameUConnVirginia
10.0%
<0.1%
ClemsonMiami FLNotre DameUConn
8.2%
<0.1%
DukeMiami FLNotre DameUConn
5.5%
<0.1%
Notre DamePittsburghSyracuseUConn
5.3%
<0.1%
DukeNotre DameUConnVirginia
5.1%
<0.1%
NC StateNotre DamePittsburghUConn
4.3%
<0.1%
DukeNotre DamePittsburghUConn
3.9%
<0.1%
Miami FLNC StateNotre DameUConn
3.3%
<0.1%
Miami FLNotre DameUConnVirginia
3.0%
<0.1%
Miami FLNotre DameSyracuseUConn
2.8%
<0.1%
ClemsonDukeNotre DameUConn
2.2%
<0.1%
Miami FLNotre DamePittsburghUConn
2.2%
<0.1%
Notre DamePittsburghUConnVirginia
2.1%
<0.1%
DukeLouisvilleNotre DameUConn
1.9%
<0.1%
LouisvilleNotre DamePittsburghUConn
1.2%
<0.1%
LouisvilleNotre DameUConnVirginia
1.0%
<0.1%
LouisvilleMiami FLNotre DameUConn
0.9%
<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

North CarolinaCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com