PittsburghPanthers
0-0 T1st (0-0) in ACC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
6.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is Pittsburgh's probability of making the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?
Pittsburgh has a 6.8% chance to reach the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Pittsburgh's Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:83% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:66% | ||
| 9/17 | Win prob:72% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 10/02 | Win prob:42% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:60% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:66% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:15% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:61% | ||
| 11/13 | Win prob:50% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:38% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:58% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.1% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 1.5% | 96.7% |
| 7-2 | 7.2% | 58.1% |
| 6-3 | 17.8% | 5.6% |
| 5-4 | 26.6% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 24.8% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 15.1% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 5.6% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 1.1% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.1% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 7.0% (+0.2%) | 6.7% (-0.1%) | |
| 7.1% (+0.3%) | 6.8% (-0.0%) | |
| 6.8% (-0.0%) | 6.8% (+0.0%) | |
| 6.8% (-0.0%) | 6.8% (+0.0%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
96.9%
0.8%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.2%
<0.1%96.1%
0.3%95.7%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%92.6%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
63.3%
4.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.6%
<0.1%97.6%
<0.1%95.3%
0.2%94.4%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%89.5%
<0.1%86.1%
<0.1%82.3%
<0.1%80.8%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.7%
<0.1%75.4%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.4%
<0.1%70.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.1%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%68.2%
<0.1%66.7%
0.2%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.3%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%60.8%
0.2%59.7%
0.1%59.4%
<0.1%58.0%
0.2%56.8%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%54.9%
0.3%53.3%
0.5%53.2%
0.1%51.6%
0.3%50.0%
0.1%43.2%
0.6%Any 3 losses
20.4%
11.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.7%
<0.1%95.8%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.9%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%90.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%78.6%
<0.1%77.4%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.1%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%72.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%68.4%
<0.1%67.0%
0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%63.0%
<0.1%62.9%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.1%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.2%
0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.7%
0.1%59.3%
<0.1%58.5%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.4%
<0.1%54.9%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%54.2%
<0.1%52.7%
<0.1%52.6%
<0.1%52.0%
0.2%52.0%
<0.1%51.4%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.2%
<0.1%49.1%
0.2%47.2%
<0.1%47.1%
<0.1%46.3%
0.3%46.2%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%43.3%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.6%
0.1%40.0%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%15.9%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.8%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%13.0%
<0.1%12.8%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%12.0%
<0.1%11.0%
0.1%10.9%
0.1%10.7%
0.2%10.3%
0.1%10.3%
0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.0%
0.1%8.9%
0.1%8.9%
<0.1%8.7%
0.2%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%7.7%
0.2%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.2%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.6%
0.1%6.6%
0.3%6.5%
<0.1%6.1%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.7%
0.3%5.7%
<0.1%5.4%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%5.1%
0.2%4.9%
0.4%4.8%
0.4%4.4%
0.4%4.2%
<0.1%4.1%
<0.1%4.0%
0.3%3.9%
0.3%3.8%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
0.3%3.4%
0.2%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
0.7%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
0.1%3.1%
0.5%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
0.5%2.6%
<0.1%2.2%
0.1%2.1%
0.2%Any 4 losses
10.0%
7.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%72.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.2%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%35.7%
<0.1%34.0%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.7%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.8%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.1%
0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.7%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.0%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.6%
0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.9%
0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
0.2%6.5%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.2%
<0.1%6.1%
0.2%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.6%
0.2%5.6%
0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.5%
0.3%5.1%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.6%
0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.4%
<0.1%4.4%
0.4%4.2%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
0.2%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
0.2%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.4%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.7%
0.3%2.2%
<0.1%2.1%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.5%
0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.0%
0.1%Data from 2026-08-26