NC StateWolfpack
1-1 T5th (0-1) in ACC
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.3%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is NC State's probability of making the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?
NC State has a 0.3% chance to reach the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. NC State's Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8/29 | L8-34 | |
| 2 | 9/11 | W73-0 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:28% | |
| 4 | 9/26 | Win prob:77% | |
| 5 | 10/03 | Win prob:28% | |
| 6 | 10/10 | Win prob:53% | |
| 8 | 10/23 | Win prob:66% | |
| 9 | 10/31 | Win prob:71% | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:45% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:62% | |
| 12 | 11/21 | Win prob:26% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:30% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 8-1 | 0.1% | 57.3% |
| 7-2 | 1.7% | 9.3% |
| 6-3 | 7.9% | 0.1% |
| 5-4 | 19.9% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 29.0% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 25.1% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 12.6% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 3.4% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.4% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, Sep 17Thursday, September 17 | |||
| 0.3% (+0.1%) | 0.2% (-0.0%) | ||
| Fri, Sep 18Friday, September 18 | |||
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.4% (+0.2%) | ||
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.2% (-0.1%) | 0.3% (+0.1%) | ||
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.3% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
54.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
19.8%
0.5%
61.2%
<0.1%
59.0%
<0.1%
17.2%
<0.1%
14.0%
<0.1%
12.9%
<0.1%
12.2%
<0.1%
11.3%
<0.1%
9.1%
<0.1%
7.1%
<0.1%
5.7%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
8.8%
1.2%54.6%
<0.1%13.7%
0.1%13.4%
<0.1%13.1%
<0.1%12.8%
0.2%12.2%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.0%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%6.3%
0.2%6.2%
<0.1%4.5%
0.2%0.7%
<0.1%0.7%
<0.1%0.6%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
7.3%
0.4%19.8%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%14.4%
<0.1%13.7%
<0.1%12.9%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%5.2%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%0.9%
<0.1%0.7%
<0.1%0.6%
<0.1%0.6%
<0.1%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17