NC StateWolfpack
0-0 T1st (0-0) in ACC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
5.7%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is NC State's probability of making the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game?
NC State has a 5.7% chance to reach the Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. NC State's Atlantic Coast Conference Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8/29 | Win prob:35% | ||
| 9/11 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:32% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:83% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:42% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:57% | ||
| 10/23 | Win prob:61% | ||
| 10/31 | Win prob:62% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:56% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:66% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:32% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:41% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.1% | 99.4% |
| 8-1 | 1.6% | 92.7% |
| 7-2 | 6.8% | 50.9% |
| 6-3 | 16.6% | 3.9% |
| 5-4 | 25.3% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 25.3% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 16.1% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 6.6% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 1.4% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.2% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game | ||
|---|---|---|
| 11.7% (+6.0%) | 2.5% (-3.2%) | |
| 5.9% (+0.2%) | 5.7% (-0.0%) | |
| 5.7% (+0.1%) | 5.6% (-0.0%) | |
| 5.6% (-0.1%) | 5.8% (+0.1%) |
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
97.2%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
95.3%
0.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.0%
<0.1%96.4%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%93.6%
<0.1%92.9%
<0.1%90.6%
<0.1%89.7%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
65.3%
2.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%95.7%
0.1%94.7%
<0.1%94.6%
<0.1%93.8%
<0.1%93.1%
0.1%90.9%
0.1%89.4%
0.2%88.2%
<0.1%87.0%
<0.1%86.5%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%72.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.8%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%55.0%
<0.1%54.8%
<0.1%54.1%
<0.1%53.3%
0.1%52.9%
<0.1%52.8%
<0.1%52.6%
<0.1%52.2%
<0.1%51.8%
<0.1%51.8%
<0.1%51.7%
<0.1%51.6%
<0.1%50.0%
0.1%48.4%
<0.1%46.3%
<0.1%44.0%
<0.1%43.3%
<0.1%42.2%
<0.1%39.7%
0.1%39.1%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%35.2%
<0.1%34.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%31.0%
0.1%Any 3 losses
32.0%
7.5%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.2%
<0.1%96.9%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%94.1%
<0.1%92.3%
<0.1%91.7%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%80.9%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%77.3%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%74.1%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%72.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%69.4%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.7%
0.1%65.0%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.1%
<0.1%61.1%
<0.1%60.6%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.6%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.7%
<0.1%56.5%
0.2%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.6%
0.2%54.5%
<0.1%54.4%
<0.1%54.0%
<0.1%53.9%
0.2%53.8%
<0.1%53.6%
<0.1%53.1%
<0.1%53.1%
<0.1%50.8%
0.1%50.0%
0.1%50.0%
0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%49.4%
<0.1%48.9%
0.2%48.9%
0.1%47.3%
<0.1%45.1%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%43.1%
<0.1%42.9%
0.1%41.7%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.0%
0.2%40.0%
<0.1%38.9%
<0.1%38.4%
0.3%36.4%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%30.0%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%27.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.5%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%11.4%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.2%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.8%
0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.1%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
0.2%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.3%
0.2%3.2%
<0.1%3.1%
0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.0%
<0.1%1.7%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.4%
<0.1%1.2%
<0.1%0.5%
0.2%Any 4 losses
10.2%
9.7%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%88.9%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%76.5%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%71.4%
<0.1%70.6%
<0.1%69.2%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%64.7%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%63.6%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.9%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.6%
<0.1%57.9%
<0.1%57.6%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%54.5%
<0.1%52.2%
<0.1%51.8%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.5%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%46.2%
<0.1%45.9%
<0.1%44.4%
<0.1%44.0%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%41.2%
<0.1%39.5%
<0.1%38.1%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.2%
<0.1%36.4%
<0.1%35.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.0%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.9%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.9%
<0.1%8.9%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.5%
0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.1%
0.1%7.0%
0.2%6.9%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.7%
0.1%6.6%
0.1%6.6%
0.1%6.6%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
0.1%5.9%
0.2%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.1%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.5%
0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
0.2%4.5%
0.1%4.3%
0.2%4.3%
<0.1%4.3%
<0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
0.2%3.9%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
0.4%3.6%
0.3%3.6%
0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.4%
0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.3%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
<0.1%3.2%
0.3%3.0%
<0.1%3.0%
0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.6%
0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
0.2%2.2%
<0.1%2.1%
0.3%2.1%
<0.1%2.0%
0.1%1.9%
0.2%1.9%
0.2%1.9%
0.2%1.8%
0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.4%
0.4%1.4%
<0.1%1.3%
0.2%0.6%
0.2%Data from 2026-08-26