Michigan StateSpartans
2-0 T1st (0-0) in B1G
Data from 2026-09-17
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
0.2%
Based on 1,000,000 simulations
What is Michigan State's probability of making the Big Ten Championship Game?
Michigan State has a 0.2% chance to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Michigan State's Big Ten Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9/04 | W30-20 | |
| 2 | 9/12 | W35-7 | |
| 3 | 9/19 | Win prob:1% | |
| 4 | 9/26 | Win prob:23% | |
| 5 | 10/03 | Win prob:45% | |
| 6 | 10/10 | Win prob:55% | |
| 7 | 10/17 | Win prob:61% | |
| 8 | 10/24 | Win prob:30% | |
| 10 | 11/07 | Win prob:13% | |
| 11 | 11/14 | Win prob:50% | |
| 12 | 11/20 | Win prob:18% | |
| 13 | 11/28 | Win prob:75% |
Data from 2026-09-17
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 0.0% | 97.7% |
| 8-1 | 0.2% | 51.5% |
| 7-2 | 1.6% | 4.7% |
| 6-3 | 7.2% | 0.0% |
| 5-4 | 18.3% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 28.1% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 26.1% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 14.1% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 4.0% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.5% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-09-17
Possible CCG Opponents
if makes the CCG
Data from 2026-09-17
This Week's Impact
| Time | Game | CCG OddsIf Away WinsAway Wins | CCG OddsIf Home WinsHome Wins |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Sep 18Friday, September 18 | |||
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| Sat, Sep 19Saturday, September 19 | |||
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.1% (-0.1%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.3% (+0.1%) | ||
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.2% (-0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | ||
| 0.2% (+0.0%) | 0.2% (+0.0%) | ||
Data from 2026-09-17
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
CCG ProbabilityLikelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%Any 1 loss
97.7%
<0.1%
97.7%
<0.1%
75.0%
<0.1%
66.7%
<0.1%
50.0%
<0.1%
40.0%
<0.1%
36.4%
<0.1%Any 2 losses
51.2%
0.2%
100.0%
<0.1%68.0%
<0.1%
62.9%
<0.1%57.7%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.2%
<0.1%
50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.3%
<0.1%
43.1%
<0.1%42.4%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%18.2%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%Any 3 losses
4.6%
1.6%15.4%
<0.1%14.9%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.9%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%12.8%
<0.1%12.1%
<0.1%10.9%
<0.1%10.9%
<0.1%10.7%
<0.1%10.4%
<0.1%10.1%
<0.1%9.4%
0.1%9.3%
<0.1%9.2%
<0.1%8.6%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.9%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%6.8%
<0.1%6.2%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.7%
0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.2%
0.1%3.0%
<0.1%2.8%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.2%
<0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.6%
<0.1%1.6%
0.3%1.3%
0.2%Data from 2026-09-17
CCG Probability Over Time
Data from 2026-09-17