Michigan St

Michigan StateSpartans

0-0 T1st (0-0) in B1G

Data from 2026-08-26

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

0.2%

Based on 100,000 simulations

What is Michigan State's probability of making the Big Ten Championship Game?

Michigan State has a 0.2% chance to reach the Big Ten Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Michigan State's Big Ten Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

Michigan StSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
9/04
vsToledoTOL
Win prob:63%
9/12
vsE MichiganEMU
Win prob:87%
9/19
@Notre DameND
Win prob:5%
9/26
vsNebraskaNEB
Win prob:36%
10/03
@WisconsinWIS
Win prob:34%
10/10
vsIllinoisILL
Win prob:42%
10/17
vsNorthwesternNU
Win prob:53%
10/24
@UCLAUCLA
Win prob:44%
11/07
@MichiganMICH
Win prob:14%
11/14
vsWashingtonWASH
Win prob:34%
11/20
vsOregonORE
Win prob:9%
11/28
@RutgersRUTG
Win prob:45%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Michigan StRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
9-0
0%
100.0%
8-1
0.1%
75.8%
7-2
0.7%
19.1%
6-3
3.5%
0.2%
5-4
11.3%
0%
4-5
22.3%
0%
3-6
28.3%
0%
2-7
22.3%
0%
1-8
9.8%
0%
0-9
1.8%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Most Likely Michigan St CCG Opponents

if Michigan St makes the CCG

Ohio StateOhio St
47.1%
OregonOregon
23.5%
IndianaIndiana
17.6%
Penn StatePenn St
5.9%
MichiganMichigan
5.9%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Michigan StThis Week's Impact

Game
Michigan StCCG OddsAway
Michigan StCCG OddsHome
San Jose StSJSU@USCUSC
0.1%
(-0.1%)		0.2%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com

Michigan StLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Michigan St CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 1 loss
<0.1%
<0.1%
Notre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
Nebraska
100.0%
<0.1%
Any 2 losses
72.9%
<0.1%
E MichiganNotre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameWashington
100.0%
<0.1%
OregonRutgers
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisNotre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameUCLA
100.0%
<0.1%
NebraskaNotre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameOregon
83.3%
<0.1%
MichiganNotre Dame
62.5%
<0.1%
IllinoisOregon
50.0%
<0.1%
NorthwesternNotre Dame
50.0%
<0.1%
Any 3 losses
23.8%
0.3%
NebraskaNotre DameRutgers
100.0%
<0.1%
OregonToledoUCLA
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganOregonRutgers
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameToledoWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameToledoUCLA
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganMichiganToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganMichiganNotre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganNotre DameUCLA
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganMichiganOregon
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganNotre DameWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
OregonRutgersWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
RutgersToledoUCLA
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameOregonToledo
88.9%
<0.1%
NorthwesternNotre DameRutgers
66.7%
<0.1%
IllinoisNotre DameWashington
66.7%
<0.1%
MichiganNotre DameToledo
60.0%
<0.1%
NebraskaNotre DameWashington
50.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameRutgersWisconsin
50.0%
<0.1%
OregonToledoWashington
50.0%
<0.1%
NorthwesternNotre DameOregon
50.0%
<0.1%
NebraskaOregonToledo
50.0%
<0.1%
NorthwesternNotre DameWashington
50.0%
<0.1%
OregonToledoWisconsin
50.0%
<0.1%
NorthwesternNotre DameUCLA
50.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisNotre DameRutgers
50.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisNotre DameToledo
50.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameWashingtonWisconsin
42.9%
<0.1%
IllinoisNotre DameWisconsin
33.3%
<0.1%
NebraskaNotre DameUCLA
28.6%
<0.1%
Notre DameOregonUCLA
26.3%
<0.1%
Notre DameUCLAWashington
25.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameOregonWisconsin
20.0%
<0.1%
MichiganNebraskaNotre Dame
20.0%
<0.1%
NebraskaNotre DameWisconsin
20.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameOregonWashington
19.2%
<0.1%
IllinoisMichiganNotre Dame
15.4%
<0.1%
MichiganNotre DameWashington
15.4%
<0.1%
MichiganNotre DameOregon
13.5%
<0.1%
NebraskaNotre DameOregon
12.5%
<0.1%
Notre DameOregonRutgers
11.1%
<0.1%
MichiganNotre DameWisconsin
8.3%
<0.1%
Any 4 losses
10.1%
0.4%
IllinoisNebraskaNotre DameToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameToledoUCLAWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganMichiganNotre DameRutgers
100.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameToledoWashingtonWisconsin
100.0%
<0.1%
NebraskaNorthwesternNotre DameToledo
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganNotre DameRutgersWashington
100.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisNotre DameToledoWashington
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganNebraskaNorthwesternNotre Dame
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganNotre DameUCLAWashington
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganNotre DameToledoUCLA
100.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganMichiganNotre DameWisconsin
66.7%
<0.1%
Notre DameRutgersToledoWashington
66.7%
<0.1%
MichiganNebraskaNotre DameToledo
54.5%
<0.1%
E MichiganMichiganNotre DameUCLA
50.0%
<0.1%
NebraskaNotre DameRutgersToledo
50.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganNorthwesternNotre DameOregon
50.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameRutgersToledoUCLA
50.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameRutgersToledoWisconsin
50.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganNebraskaNotre DameWisconsin
50.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganNotre DameOregonRutgers
50.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganIllinoisNotre DameOregon
50.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisNotre DameToledoWisconsin
50.0%
<0.1%
MichiganNotre DameRutgersToledo
40.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisNotre DameOregonToledo
29.4%
<0.1%
MichiganNotre DameToledoWisconsin
28.6%
<0.1%
Notre DameOregonToledoUCLA
28.6%
<0.1%
IllinoisNotre DameToledoUCLA
25.0%
<0.1%
Notre DameOregonRutgersToledo
20.0%
<0.1%
E MichiganNotre DameOregonWashington
16.7%
<0.1%
NebraskaNotre DameToledoWisconsin
16.7%
<0.1%
MichiganNotre DameToledoWashington
14.3%
<0.1%
Notre DameOregonToledoWisconsin
12.5%
<0.1%
E MichiganNotre DameOregonWisconsin
12.5%
<0.1%
Notre DameOregonToledoWashington
12.5%
<0.1%
MichiganNorthwesternNotre DameWisconsin
10.0%
<0.1%
MichiganNorthwesternNotre DameToledo
10.0%
<0.1%
IllinoisMichiganNorthwesternNotre Dame
9.1%
<0.1%
NebraskaNotre DameOregonToledo
6.7%
<0.1%
MichiganNotre DameOregonToledo
2.3%
<0.1%
MichiganNotre DameOregonWisconsin
0.6%
0.2%

Data from 2026-08-26 • SportsSimulate.com