LSU

LSUTigers

6-2 T5th (3-2) in SEC

Data from 2026-11-02

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

21.6%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is LSU's probability of making the SEC Championship Game?

LSU has a 21.6% chance to reach the SEC Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. LSU's SEC Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

What does LSU need to do to reach the SEC Championship Game?

A perfect run to the end of the season puts LSU's SEC Championship Game odds at 79.5%; even one more loss drops that to 7.1%.

What is the biggest game this week for LSU's SEC Championship Game odds?

LSU's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating Alabama would put its SEC Championship Game odds at 36.2%, while a loss would drop them to 0.9%.

LSUSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
vsClemsonCLEM
W51-10
29/12
vsLouisiana TechLT
W45-14
39/19
@MississippiMISS
L24-32
49/26
vsTexas A&MTA&M
W35-6
510/03
vsMcNeeseMCN
W63-14
610/10
@KentuckyUK
L34-35
710/17
vsMississippi StMSST
W31-0
810/24
@AuburnAUB
W38-17
1011/07
vsAlabamaALA
Win prob:59%
1111/14
vsTexasTEX
Win prob:61%
1211/21
@TennesseeTENN
Win prob:68%
1311/28
@ArkansasARK
Win prob:96%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

LSURecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
7-2
23.4%
79.5%
6-3
43.5%
7.1%
5-4
27.0%
0%
4-5
5.9%
0%
3-6
0.2%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible LSU CCG Opponents

if LSU makes the CCG

UGAGeorgia
65.0%
MISSMississippi
24.3%
UKKentucky
5.8%
ALAAlabama
1.5%
TEXTexas
1.2%
FLAFlorida
0.8%
MIZMissouri
0.7%
TENNTennessee
0.3%
SCSouth Carolina
0.2%
OUOklahoma
0.2%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

LSUThis Week's Impact

Game
LSUCCG OddsAway Wins
LSUCCG OddsHome Wins
Sat, Nov 7
TexasTEX@MissouriMIZ
22.3%
(+0.6%)		19.9%
(-1.7%)
ArkansasARK@AuburnAUB
21.9%
(+0.3%)		21.6%
(-0.1%)
Texas A&MTA&M@South CarolinaSC
22.6%
(+1.0%)		20.9%
(-0.7%)
AlabamaALA@LSULSU
0.9%
(-20.7%)		36.2%
(+14.5%)
VanderbiltVAN@Mississippi StMSST
20.4%
(-1.3%)		22.0%
(+0.3%)
KentuckyUK@TennesseeTENN
14.5%
(-7.1%)		24.7%
(+3.1%)
GeorgiaUGA@MississippiMISS
19.6%
(-2.0%)		24.1%
(+2.5%)
OklahomaOU@FloridaFLA
22.0%
(+0.3%)		21.5%
(-0.2%)

Best Winner Combination for LSU

Mississippi StMississippi StateMississippiOle MissTennesseeTennesseeFloridaFloridaAuburnAuburnLSULSUTexasTexasTexas A&MTexas A&M

CCG: 46.4% • Scenario: 2.5%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for LSU

LSULSU

CCG: 36.1% • Scenario: 58.9%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

LSULoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
LSU CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
79.5%
23.4%
Any 1 loss
7.1%
43.4%
Arkansas
24.2%
0.8%
Tennessee
11.2%
11.1%
Texas
8.2%
15.1%
Alabama
2.3%
16.4%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

LSUCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%PreseasonWeek 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com