LSU

LSUTigers

2-0 T2nd (0-0) in SEC

Data from 2026-09-17

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

19.6%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is LSU's probability of making the SEC Championship Game?

LSU has a 19.6% chance to reach the SEC Championship Game, as of week 3 of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. LSU's SEC Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

LSUSchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
vsClemsonCLEM
W51-10
29/12
vsLouisiana TechLT
W45-14
39/19
@MississippiMISS
Win prob:65%
49/26
vsTexas A&MTA&M
Win prob:57%
510/03
vsMcNeeseMCN
Win prob:90%
610/10
@KentuckyUK
Win prob:91%
710/17
vsMississippi StMSST
Win prob:86%
810/24
@AuburnAUB
Win prob:69%
1011/07
vsAlabamaALA
Win prob:56%
1111/14
vsTexasTEX
Win prob:34%
1211/21
@TennesseeTENN
Win prob:57%
1311/28
@ArkansasARK
Win prob:97%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

LSURecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
9-0
2.1%
100.0%
8-1
11.6%
88.9%
7-2
25.6%
27.6%
6-3
30.0%
0.4%
5-4
20.4%
0%
4-5
8.2%
0%
3-6
1.9%
0%
2-7
0.2%
0%
1-8
0.0%
0%
0-9
0%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible LSU CCG Opponents

if LSU makes the CCG

TEXTexas
42.6%
UGAGeorgia
32.9%
ALAAlabama
12.4%
TA&MTexas A&M
6.3%
TENNTennessee
1.8%
OUOklahoma
1.3%
FLAFlorida
0.9%
SCSouth Carolina
0.7%
MISSMississippi
0.6%
AUBAuburn
0.3%
MIZMissouri
0.2%
MSSTMississippi St
0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

LSUThis Week's Impact

Game
LSUCCG OddsAway Wins
LSUCCG OddsHome Wins
Sat, Sep 19
GeorgiaUGA@ArkansasARK
19.5%
(-0.1%)		26.1%
(+6.5%)
NC StateNCSU@VanderbiltVAN
19.6%
(+0.0%)		19.6%
(-0.0%)
Florida StFSU@AlabamaALA
19.4%
(-0.1%)		19.6%
(+0.0%)
KentuckyUK@Texas A&MTA&M
21.3%
(+1.7%)		19.5%
(-0.1%)
Mississippi StMSST@South CarolinaSC
20.2%
(+0.6%)		19.3%
(-0.3%)
FloridaFLA@AuburnAUB
18.9%
(-0.7%)		20.3%
(+0.7%)
TroyTROY@MissouriMIZ
19.6%
(+0.0%)		19.6%
(+0.0%)
LSULSU@MississippiMISS
25.6%
(+6.0%)		8.5%
(-11.1%)
New MexicoUNM@OklahomaOU
19.6%
(+0.0%)		19.6%
(+0.0%)
KennesawKENN@TennesseeTENN
19.7%
(+0.1%)		19.6%
(+0.0%)
UT San AntonioUTSA@TexasTEX
18.9%
(-0.7%)		19.6%
(+0.0%)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

LSULoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
LSU CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
1.9%
Any 1 loss
89.1%
10.7%
McNeese
100.0%
0.2%
Kentucky
98.4%
0.2%
Mississippi St
97.9%
0.3%
Tennessee
96.8%
1.4%
Auburn
93.6%
0.9%
Texas A&M
93.1%
1.4%
Arkansas
89.9%
<0.1%
Mississippi
89.0%
1.0%
Alabama
87.3%
1.5%
Texas
82.6%
3.7%
Any 2 losses
30.6%
24.2%
KentuckyMcNeese
98.0%
<0.1%
McNeeseMississippi St
97.9%
<0.1%
McNeeseTennessee
96.1%
0.1%
AuburnMcNeese
94.0%
0.1%
McNeeseTexas A&M
93.2%
0.2%
McNeeseMississippi
90.7%
0.1%
ArkansasMcNeese
87.3%
<0.1%
AlabamaMcNeese
86.6%
0.2%
McNeeseTexas
82.4%
0.4%
ArkansasMississippi St
62.0%
<0.1%
KentuckyMississippi St
61.4%
<0.1%
KentuckyTennessee
56.6%
0.1%
AuburnKentucky
55.9%
<0.1%
AuburnMississippi St
54.8%
0.1%
ArkansasAuburn
53.7%
<0.1%
KentuckyMississippi
53.3%
0.1%
Mississippi StTennessee
52.2%
0.2%
ArkansasKentucky
52.2%
<0.1%
MississippiMississippi St
51.5%
0.2%
ArkansasMississippi
48.9%
<0.1%
AuburnTennessee
48.7%
0.6%
ArkansasTennessee
47.2%
<0.1%
MississippiTennessee
47.2%
0.8%
AuburnMississippi
45.2%
0.4%
Mississippi StTexas A&M
40.3%
0.2%
KentuckyTexas A&M
39.9%
0.1%
AlabamaKentucky
37.8%
0.1%
AuburnTexas A&M
35.3%
0.6%
KentuckyTexas
34.0%
0.4%
MississippiTexas A&M
33.6%
0.8%
ArkansasTexas A&M
33.3%
<0.1%
AlabamaAuburn
33.3%
0.7%
AlabamaMississippi St
32.3%
0.2%
Mississippi StTexas
31.4%
0.6%
TennesseeTexas A&M
31.2%
1.1%
AlabamaArkansas
30.9%
<0.1%
AlabamaMississippi
29.4%
0.8%
ArkansasTexas
28.1%
0.1%
AlabamaTennessee
27.6%
1.1%
AuburnTexas
26.9%
1.7%
MississippiTexas
26.9%
2.0%
TennesseeTexas
25.3%
2.8%
TexasTexas A&M
18.4%
2.8%
AlabamaTexas A&M
17.5%
1.1%
AlabamaTexas
11.0%
2.8%
Any 3 losses
6.7%
11.4%
ArkansasMcNeeseMississippi St
78.6%
<0.1%
KentuckyMcNeeseMississippi St
68.8%
<0.1%
ArkansasKentuckyMcNeese
60.0%
<0.1%
AuburnKentuckyMcNeese
59.6%
<0.1%
ArkansasMcNeeseMississippi
58.7%
<0.1%
KentuckyMcNeeseMississippi
56.9%
<0.1%
McNeeseMississippi StTennessee
55.0%
<0.1%
AuburnMcNeeseMississippi St
54.4%
<0.1%
KentuckyMcNeeseTennessee
54.0%
<0.1%
McNeeseMississippiMississippi St
52.6%
<0.1%
ArkansasAuburnMcNeese
48.7%
<0.1%
AuburnMcNeeseTennessee
46.4%
<0.1%
McNeeseMississippiTennessee
44.9%
<0.1%
AuburnMcNeeseMississippi
43.2%
<0.1%
AlabamaKentuckyMcNeese
41.7%
<0.1%
ArkansasMcNeeseTennessee
41.2%
<0.1%
KentuckyMcNeeseTexas A&M
39.4%
<0.1%
AlabamaAuburnMcNeese
38.1%
<0.1%
McNeeseMississippi StTexas A&M
37.3%
<0.1%
ArkansasMcNeeseTexas A&M
36.2%
<0.1%
AuburnMcNeeseTexas A&M
35.1%
<0.1%
McNeeseMississippiTexas A&M
33.6%
<0.1%
KentuckyMcNeeseTexas
32.6%
<0.1%
AlabamaMcNeeseMississippi St
31.0%
<0.1%
McNeeseMississippi StTexas
30.3%
<0.1%
AlabamaArkansasMcNeese
30.2%
<0.1%
McNeeseTennesseeTexas A&M
29.8%
0.1%
AlabamaMcNeeseMississippi
29.5%
<0.1%
AlabamaMcNeeseTennessee
27.5%
0.1%
AuburnMcNeeseTexas
27.1%
0.2%
McNeeseTennesseeTexas
26.8%
0.3%
McNeeseMississippiTexas
25.8%
0.2%
ArkansasMcNeeseTexas
24.4%
<0.1%
McNeeseTexasTexas A&M
17.6%
0.3%
AlabamaMcNeeseTexas A&M
17.2%
0.1%
AlabamaMcNeeseTexas
10.9%
0.3%
ArkansasAuburnMississippi
3.4%
<0.1%
ArkansasKentuckyTexas A&M
3.3%
<0.1%
ArkansasKentuckyMississippi
3.0%
<0.1%
AuburnKentuckyMississippi St
3.0%
<0.1%
ArkansasAuburnTennessee
2.9%
<0.1%
KentuckyMississippi StTennessee
2.5%
<0.1%
AuburnKentuckyMississippi
2.5%
<0.1%
ArkansasKentuckyTennessee
2.3%
<0.1%
AuburnMississippi StTennessee
2.1%
0.1%
ArkansasMississippiTennessee
2.1%
<0.1%
AlabamaArkansasAuburn
2.1%
<0.1%
ArkansasMississippiTexas A&M
2.1%
<0.1%
AlabamaAuburnKentucky
1.9%
<0.1%
ArkansasAuburnMississippi St
1.9%
<0.1%
AuburnKentuckyTennessee
1.9%
<0.1%
AuburnMississippiMississippi St
1.8%
<0.1%
ArkansasMississippiMississippi St
1.8%
<0.1%
KentuckyMississippi StTexas A&M
1.7%
<0.1%
AuburnKentuckyTexas A&M
1.6%
<0.1%
KentuckyMississippiTennessee
1.6%
<0.1%
ArkansasAuburnTexas A&M
1.4%
<0.1%
KentuckyMississippi StTexas
1.4%
<0.1%
AlabamaArkansasMississippi
1.4%
<0.1%
ArkansasTennesseeTexas
1.3%
0.1%
ArkansasMississippi StTennessee
1.3%
<0.1%
MississippiMississippi StTennessee
1.3%
0.1%
AlabamaKentuckyMississippi
1.3%
<0.1%
ArkansasAuburnTexas
1.2%
<0.1%
AlabamaArkansasMississippi St
1.1%
<0.1%
ArkansasMississippi StTexas
1.0%
<0.1%
ArkansasMississippiTexas
1.0%
<0.1%
AuburnKentuckyTexas
0.9%
0.2%
KentuckyTennesseeTexas
0.9%
0.3%
AlabamaKentuckyMississippi St
0.9%
<0.1%
MississippiMississippi StTexas
0.9%
0.3%
KentuckyMississippiTexas A&M
0.9%
<0.1%
KentuckyMississippiTexas
0.8%
0.2%
ArkansasKentuckyTexas
0.8%
<0.1%
AuburnMississippiTennessee
0.8%
0.3%
AuburnMississippi StTexas
0.7%
0.3%
AuburnMississippiTexas
0.7%
0.9%
MississippiTennesseeTexas
0.7%
1.5%
AlabamaKentuckyTexas
0.7%
0.3%
Mississippi StTennesseeTexas
0.7%
0.4%
AuburnMississippiTexas A&M
0.6%
0.3%
AlabamaKentuckyTennessee
0.6%
0.1%
KentuckyMississippiMississippi St
0.6%
<0.1%
AuburnTennesseeTexas
0.6%
1.2%
ArkansasTexasTexas A&M
0.6%
0.1%
KentuckyTennesseeTexas A&M
0.6%
0.1%
AlabamaMississippiMississippi St
0.5%
0.1%
Mississippi StTennesseeTexas A&M
0.5%
0.2%
MississippiTennesseeTexas A&M
0.5%
0.6%
Any 4 losses
1.0%
0.5%
KentuckyMcNeeseMississippiMississippi St
7.7%
<0.1%
ArkansasKentuckyMcNeeseTexas
6.7%
<0.1%
ArkansasAuburnMcNeeseMississippi
4.8%
<0.1%
AlabamaKentuckyMcNeeseMississippi St
3.7%
<0.1%
AuburnMcNeeseMississippiMississippi St
2.4%
<0.1%
AuburnKentuckyMcNeeseMississippi
2.2%
<0.1%
KentuckyMcNeeseMississippiTexas A&M
2.1%
<0.1%
AuburnMcNeeseMississippiTennessee
2.1%
<0.1%
AuburnMcNeeseMississippi StTennessee
1.9%
<0.1%
AlabamaMcNeeseMississippi StTennessee
1.7%
<0.1%
ArkansasAuburnMcNeeseTexas
1.7%
<0.1%
KentuckyMcNeeseTennesseeTexas A&M
1.6%
<0.1%
McNeeseMississippiMississippi StTennessee
1.5%
<0.1%
McNeeseMississippiMississippi StTexas
1.5%
<0.1%
AuburnKentuckyMcNeeseTexas A&M
1.4%
<0.1%
AlabamaAuburnKentuckyMcNeese
1.4%
<0.1%
KentuckyMcNeeseMississippiTexas
0.9%
<0.1%
AlabamaAuburnMcNeeseMississippi
0.8%
<0.1%
ArkansasMcNeeseTennesseeTexas
0.8%
<0.1%
KentuckyMcNeeseTennesseeTexas
0.7%
<0.1%
AuburnMcNeeseMississippi StTexas
0.7%
<0.1%
McNeeseMississippiTennesseeTexas
0.6%
0.2%
AuburnKentuckyMcNeeseTexas
0.5%
<0.1%
AlabamaAuburnMcNeeseTennessee
0.5%
<0.1%

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com

LSUCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%Week 1 (8/4)Week 1 (8/31)Week 3 (9/8)Week 3 (9/13)

Data from 2026-09-17 • SportsSimulate.com