LSUTigers
0-0 T1st (0-0) in SEC
Data from 2026-08-26
Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game
19.8%
Based on 100,000 simulations
What is LSU's probability of making the SEC Championship Game?
LSU has a 19.8% chance to reach the SEC Championship Game, as of week 1 of the 2026 season, based on a 100,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. LSU's SEC Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.
Schedule & Results
| Wk | Date | Opponent | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9/05 | Win prob:70% | ||
| 9/12 | Win prob:97% | ||
| 9/19 | Win prob:54% | ||
| 9/26 | Win prob:56% | ||
| 10/03 | Win prob:90% | ||
| 10/10 | Win prob:76% | ||
| 10/17 | Win prob:86% | ||
| 10/24 | Win prob:63% | ||
| 11/07 | Win prob:56% | ||
| 11/14 | Win prob:40% | ||
| 11/21 | Win prob:56% | ||
| 11/28 | Win prob:78% |
Data from 2026-08-26
Record Probabilities
| Conf Record | Probability | CCG if this record |
|---|---|---|
| 9-0 | 1.2% | 100.0% |
| 8-1 | 7.3% | 96.4% |
| 7-2 | 18.9% | 55.0% |
| 6-3 | 27.5% | 4.4% |
| 5-4 | 24.6% | 0% |
| 4-5 | 14.2% | 0% |
| 3-6 | 5.0% | 0% |
| 2-7 | 1.1% | 0% |
| 1-8 | 0.1% | 0% |
| 0-9 | 0.0% | 0% |
Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.
CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.
Data from 2026-08-26
Most Likely
CCG Opponents
if
makes the CCG
Data from 2026-08-26
This Week's Impact
| Game |
|---|
Data from 2026-08-26
Loss Combination Scenarios
CCG probability given specific future losses
Future Losses
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
0.8%Any 1 loss
96.6%
5.0%100.0%
0.3%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%98.8%
0.6%98.2%
0.2%98.1%
0.4%97.7%
0.2%97.5%
0.6%97.0%
0.7%96.6%
0.1%95.8%
0.6%92.8%
1.1%Any 2 losses
62.3%
14.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%99.2%
0.3%99.1%
0.2%98.8%
<0.1%98.3%
<0.1%97.5%
0.2%97.5%
0.2%97.1%
0.1%96.9%
0.1%96.3%
<0.1%96.0%
<0.1%95.6%
<0.1%95.5%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%94.4%
<0.1%94.2%
0.2%92.6%
<0.1%92.5%
0.4%92.1%
<0.1%81.5%
<0.1%78.9%
0.2%78.6%
<0.1%77.6%
0.2%76.7%
<0.1%76.7%
<0.1%75.7%
0.1%74.8%
0.1%73.0%
<0.1%72.7%
0.3%70.9%
0.2%69.5%
<0.1%69.5%
0.2%68.8%
0.2%68.5%
0.2%67.3%
0.1%67.0%
0.1%64.9%
0.2%64.7%
0.5%59.7%
0.4%59.4%
0.3%58.6%
0.4%58.5%
0.4%56.5%
0.5%55.8%
0.4%55.7%
0.2%55.5%
0.5%51.8%
0.7%51.2%
0.5%51.0%
0.9%50.7%
0.3%47.7%
0.2%45.3%
0.4%42.0%
1.0%40.8%
0.9%36.7%
0.8%Any 3 losses
19.5%
23.6%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%97.0%
<0.1%96.7%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%96.5%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%82.9%
<0.1%81.3%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%80.0%
<0.1%79.7%
<0.1%79.0%
<0.1%77.8%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.4%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%73.5%
<0.1%73.3%
<0.1%72.7%
<0.1%71.2%
<0.1%70.9%
<0.1%70.8%
0.1%70.0%
<0.1%69.3%
<0.1%68.8%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%65.7%
<0.1%65.6%
<0.1%65.2%
<0.1%64.3%
<0.1%63.5%
0.1%63.2%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%62.4%
0.2%62.2%
0.2%62.1%
<0.1%60.3%
<0.1%60.0%
0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%59.5%
0.2%56.5%
<0.1%56.5%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%56.0%
<0.1%56.0%
<0.1%55.6%
<0.1%55.5%
0.1%55.4%
<0.1%55.1%
0.2%54.4%
0.1%54.2%
0.1%54.0%
<0.1%53.9%
0.2%52.9%
<0.1%52.7%
0.1%52.6%
<0.1%52.3%
<0.1%51.9%
0.4%51.3%
<0.1%50.4%
0.3%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%47.4%
<0.1%47.2%
0.4%47.1%
<0.1%46.6%
0.4%46.3%
<0.1%44.9%
0.1%43.8%
<0.1%43.5%
0.2%42.7%
0.1%42.4%
<0.1%41.7%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%38.5%
<0.1%37.0%
<0.1%36.2%
<0.1%36.1%
0.4%36.0%
0.1%30.8%
<0.1%29.4%
<0.1%25.8%
<0.1%20.6%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%16.0%
<0.1%15.6%
<0.1%14.0%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
0.1%12.0%
0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.3%
0.1%10.6%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.5%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.4%
<0.1%9.2%
0.2%9.1%
<0.1%8.8%
0.2%8.7%
<0.1%8.3%
<0.1%8.2%
0.3%8.0%
<0.1%7.6%
<0.1%7.4%
<0.1%7.3%
<0.1%7.2%
0.1%7.1%
0.2%7.0%
0.2%7.0%
0.3%6.8%
0.1%6.8%
0.2%6.7%
0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.6%
0.1%6.6%
0.1%6.5%
0.3%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.2%
0.1%6.1%
0.3%6.1%
0.3%5.9%
<0.1%5.6%
0.1%5.6%
0.3%5.5%
0.5%5.4%
0.1%5.1%
0.2%5.1%
<0.1%4.9%
0.1%4.8%
0.1%4.8%
0.3%4.5%
0.2%4.5%
0.2%4.3%
0.1%4.2%
0.1%4.0%
0.1%4.0%
0.3%3.9%
0.4%3.9%
<0.1%3.6%
0.3%3.5%
<0.1%3.5%
0.1%3.4%
0.4%3.3%
0.7%3.1%
0.7%3.0%
0.3%2.9%
0.3%2.9%
0.3%2.8%
0.6%2.6%
0.8%2.6%
0.7%2.5%
0.5%2.4%
<0.1%2.3%
0.4%2.3%
0.5%2.0%
0.3%1.7%
0.8%1.7%
0.7%1.6%
<0.1%1.5%
<0.1%1.1%
0.4%Any 4 losses
8.8%
9.2%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%100.0%
<0.1%87.5%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%85.7%
<0.1%83.3%
<0.1%76.9%
<0.1%75.9%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%75.0%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%66.7%
<0.1%63.2%
<0.1%62.5%
<0.1%61.5%
<0.1%60.0%
<0.1%58.3%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%57.1%
<0.1%56.3%
<0.1%55.9%
<0.1%52.9%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%50.0%
<0.1%48.8%
<0.1%48.1%
<0.1%45.8%
<0.1%45.5%
<0.1%42.9%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%40.0%
<0.1%39.5%
<0.1%38.2%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%37.5%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%33.3%
<0.1%28.6%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%25.0%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%23.1%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%22.2%
<0.1%21.4%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%20.0%
<0.1%18.8%
<0.1%17.6%
<0.1%16.7%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%15.4%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%14.3%
<0.1%13.6%
<0.1%13.5%
<0.1%13.3%
<0.1%12.5%
<0.1%11.9%
<0.1%11.8%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.5%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%11.1%
<0.1%10.0%
<0.1%9.8%
<0.1%9.5%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%9.1%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.8%
<0.1%8.7%
<0.1%8.1%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.7%
<0.1%7.6%
<0.1%7.5%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.1%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%7.0%
<0.1%6.9%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.7%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.5%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.3%
<0.1%6.0%
<0.1%5.9%
0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.9%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.8%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.7%
<0.1%5.6%
0.1%5.6%
<0.1%5.5%
0.1%5.5%
0.1%5.5%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.3%
<0.1%5.0%
<0.1%4.9%
<0.1%4.9%
0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.8%
<0.1%4.7%
<0.1%4.6%
0.2%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
<0.1%4.5%
0.1%4.3%
0.1%4.2%
0.1%4.2%
<0.1%4.0%
<0.1%3.9%
0.3%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.9%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.7%
<0.1%3.6%
<0.1%3.5%
0.1%3.5%
<0.1%3.4%
0.3%3.2%
<0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
0.1%3.1%
<0.1%3.1%
0.1%3.0%
0.3%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.9%
<0.1%2.6%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.5%
<0.1%2.3%
<0.1%2.3%
0.2%2.3%
0.3%2.2%
0.2%2.1%
0.1%2.1%
0.3%1.9%
0.1%1.9%
<0.1%1.8%
<0.1%1.8%
0.1%1.7%
0.3%1.7%
0.2%1.6%
0.3%1.5%
<0.1%1.5%
0.1%1.1%
<0.1%Data from 2026-08-26