Kentucky

KentuckyWildcats

7-1 T1st (5-1) in SEC

Data from 2026-11-02

Probability to Make the Conference Championship Game

25.3%

Based on 1,000,000 simulations

What is Kentucky's probability of making the SEC Championship Game?

Kentucky has a 25.3% chance to reach the SEC Championship Game, as of latest of the 2026 season, based on a 1,000,000-season Monte Carlo simulation. Kentucky's SEC Championship Game race is still mathematically wide open.

What does Kentucky need to do to reach the SEC Championship Game?

A perfect run to the end of the season puts Kentucky's SEC Championship Game odds at 100%; even one more loss drops that to 64.4%.

What is the biggest game this week for Kentucky's SEC Championship Game odds?

Kentucky's biggest swing game this week is its own: beating Tennessee would put its SEC Championship Game odds at 52.6%, while a loss would drop them to 13.4%.

KentuckySchedule & Results

WkDateOpponentResult
19/05
vsYoungstown StateYSU
W45-13
29/12
vsAlabamaALA
L17-45
39/19
@Texas A&MTA&M
W31-21
49/26
vsSouth AlabamaUSA
W45-21
510/03
@South CarolinaSC
W35-34
610/10
vsLSULSU
W35-34
710/17
@OklahomaOU
W21-13
810/24
vsVanderbiltVAN
W34-17
1011/07
@TennesseeTENN
Win prob:30%
1111/14
vsFloridaFLA
Win prob:56%
1211/21
@MissouriMIZ
Win prob:38%
1311/28
vsLouisvilleLOU
Win prob:54%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

KentuckyRecord Probabilities

Conf RecordProbabilityCCG if this record
8-1
6.3%
100.0%
7-2
30.3%
58.1%
6-3
44.2%
2.9%
5-4
19.2%
0%

Conf Record: Probability of finishing with each conference record.

CCG if this record: If the team finishes with this conference record, their probability of making the championship game.

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

Possible Kentucky CCG Opponents

if Kentucky makes the CCG

UGAGeorgia
61.9%
MISSMississippi
14.6%
ALAAlabama
13.2%
LSULSU
4.9%
TEXTexas
2.9%
TENNTennessee
0.9%
MIZMissouri
0.8%
FLAFlorida
0.3%
SCSouth Carolina
0.2%
OUOklahoma
0.2%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

KentuckyThis Week's Impact

Game
KentuckyCCG OddsAway Wins
KentuckyCCG OddsHome Wins
Sat, Nov 7
TexasTEX@MissouriMIZ
24.8%
(-0.4%)		26.4%
(+1.1%)
ArkansasARK@AuburnAUB
26.3%
(+1.0%)		25.1%
(-0.2%)
Texas A&MTA&M@South CarolinaSC
25.2%
(-0.1%)		25.3%
(+0.1%)
AlabamaALA@LSULSU
19.3%
(-6.0%)		29.4%
(+4.2%)
VanderbiltVAN@Mississippi StMSST
27.6%
(+2.3%)		24.7%
(-0.6%)
KentuckyUK@TennesseeTENN
52.6%
(+27.4%)		13.4%
(-11.8%)
GeorgiaUGA@MississippiMISS
26.5%
(+1.3%)		23.7%
(-1.6%)
OklahomaOU@FloridaFLA
25.4%
(+0.1%)		25.2%
(-0.1%)

Best Winner Combination for Kentucky

VanderbiltVanderbiltGeorgiaGeorgiaKentuckyKentuckyOklahomaOklahomaArkansasArkansasLSULSUTexasTexasTexas A&MTexas A&M

CCG: 71.7% • Scenario: 0.0%

Most Realistic Good Winner Combination for Kentucky

KentuckyKentucky

CCG: 52.7% • Scenario: 30.2%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

KentuckyLoss Combination Scenarios

CCG probability given specific future losses

Future Losses
Kentucky CCG Probability
Likelihood
Win out
100.0%
3.5%
Any 1 loss
64.4%
19.4%
Louisville
100.0%
2.9%
Florida
60.3%
2.8%
Missouri
59.7%
5.6%
Tennessee
56.4%
8.1%
Any 2 losses
23.0%
37.8%
LouisvilleMissouri
59.8%
4.8%
FloridaLouisville
59.7%
2.3%
LouisvilleTennessee
56.3%
6.7%
MissouriTennessee
3.1%
13.0%
FloridaMissouri
2.7%
4.5%
FloridaTennessee
2.5%
6.4%
Any 3 losses
3.0%
20.2%
LouisvilleMissouriTennessee
3.3%
11.0%
FloridaLouisvilleMissouri
2.8%
3.8%
FloridaLouisvilleTennessee
2.5%
5.4%

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com

KentuckyCCG Probability Over Time

0%20%40%60%80%100%PreseasonWeek 1Week 2Week 3Week 4Week 5Week 6Week 7Week 8Week 9Week 10

Data from 2026-11-02 • SportsSimulate.com